Intrinsic value of Gogo - GOGO

Previous Close

$3.76

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$3.76

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of GOGO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.20
  15.98
  14.88
  13.89
  13.00
  12.20
  11.48
  10.84
  10.25
  9.73
  9.25
  8.83
  8.45
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
Revenue, $m
  819
  950
  1,092
  1,243
  1,405
  1,576
  1,757
  1,948
  2,147
  2,356
  2,574
  2,802
  3,038
  3,284
  3,540
  3,806
  4,083
  4,370
  4,668
  4,979
  5,301
  5,637
  5,987
  6,351
  6,730
  7,126
  7,538
  7,968
  8,418
  8,887
Variable operating expenses, $m
  854
  989
  1,135
  1,291
  1,458
  1,635
  1,821
  2,018
  2,224
  2,439
  2,656
  2,890
  3,134
  3,388
  3,652
  3,926
  4,211
  4,508
  4,816
  5,136
  5,469
  5,815
  6,176
  6,551
  6,943
  7,350
  7,776
  8,220
  8,683
  9,167
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  854
  989
  1,135
  1,291
  1,458
  1,635
  1,821
  2,018
  2,224
  2,439
  2,656
  2,890
  3,134
  3,388
  3,652
  3,926
  4,211
  4,508
  4,816
  5,136
  5,469
  5,815
  6,176
  6,551
  6,943
  7,350
  7,776
  8,220
  8,683
  9,167
Operating income, $m
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -83
  -81
  -88
  -96
  -104
  -112
  -120
  -129
  -138
  -147
  -157
  -167
  -178
  -189
  -200
  -212
  -225
  -238
  -251
  -266
  -280
EBITDA, $m
  53
  62
  71
  81
  91
  102
  114
  126
  139
  153
  167
  182
  197
  213
  230
  247
  265
  284
  303
  323
  344
  366
  389
  412
  437
  463
  490
  518
  547
  577
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  124
  98
  125
  155
  186
  220
  256
  294
  334
  375
  419
  465
  512
  561
  613
  666
  722
  780
  840
  902
  967
  1,034
  1,105
  1,178
  1,254
  1,333
  1,416
  1,502
  1,592
  1,686
Earnings before tax, $m
  -159
  -136
  -168
  -203
  -239
  -279
  -320
  -364
  -410
  -458
  -500
  -553
  -608
  -665
  -725
  -786
  -851
  -918
  -987
  -1,059
  -1,134
  -1,212
  -1,294
  -1,378
  -1,466
  -1,558
  -1,654
  -1,753
  -1,857
  -1,966
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -159
  -136
  -168
  -203
  -239
  -279
  -320
  -364
  -410
  -458
  -500
  -553
  -608
  -665
  -725
  -786
  -851
  -918
  -987
  -1,059
  -1,134
  -1,212
  -1,294
  -1,378
  -1,466
  -1,558
  -1,654
  -1,753
  -1,857
  -1,966

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,534
  1,779
  2,044
  2,328
  2,631
  2,952
  3,291
  3,647
  4,021
  4,413
  4,821
  5,246
  5,690
  6,150
  6,630
  7,128
  7,645
  8,183
  8,742
  9,323
  9,928
  10,557
  11,211
  11,893
  12,603
  13,344
  14,116
  14,922
  15,764
  16,642
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,534
  1,779
  2,044
  2,328
  2,631
  2,952
  3,291
  3,647
  4,021
  4,413
  4,821
  5,246
  5,690
  6,150
  6,630
  7,128
  7,645
  8,183
  8,742
  9,323
  9,928
  10,557
  11,211
  11,893
  12,603
  13,344
  14,116
  14,922
  15,764
  16,642
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
Average production assets, $m
  791
  917
  1,053
  1,200
  1,356
  1,521
  1,696
  1,880
  2,072
  2,274
  2,484
  2,704
  2,932
  3,169
  3,416
  3,673
  3,940
  4,217
  4,505
  4,804
  5,116
  5,440
  5,777
  6,129
  6,495
  6,876
  7,274
  7,690
  8,123
  8,576
Working capital, $m
  21
  25
  28
  32
  37
  41
  46
  51
  56
  61
  67
  73
  79
  85
  92
  99
  106
  114
  121
  129
  138
  147
  156
  165
  175
  185
  196
  207
  219
  231
Total debt, $m
  788
  1,009
  1,247
  1,503
  1,775
  2,064
  2,369
  2,690
  3,027
  3,379
  3,746
  4,129
  4,528
  4,943
  5,374
  5,822
  6,288
  6,772
  7,275
  7,798
  8,342
  8,908
  9,498
  10,111
  10,750
  11,417
  12,112
  12,837
  13,595
  14,386
Total liabilities, $m
  1,381
  1,601
  1,840
  2,095
  2,368
  2,657
  2,962
  3,283
  3,619
  3,971
  4,339
  4,722
  5,121
  5,535
  5,967
  6,415
  6,881
  7,365
  7,868
  8,391
  8,935
  9,501
  10,090
  10,704
  11,343
  12,010
  12,705
  13,430
  14,187
  14,978
Total equity, $m
  153
  178
  204
  233
  263
  295
  329
  365
  402
  441
  482
  525
  569
  615
  663
  713
  765
  818
  874
  932
  993
  1,056
  1,121
  1,189
  1,260
  1,334
  1,412
  1,492
  1,576
  1,664
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,534
  1,779
  2,044
  2,328
  2,631
  2,952
  3,291
  3,648
  4,021
  4,412
  4,821
  5,247
  5,690
  6,150
  6,630
  7,128
  7,646
  8,183
  8,742
  9,323
  9,928
  10,557
  11,211
  11,893
  12,603
  13,344
  14,117
  14,922
  15,763
  16,642
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.140
  5.670
  6.100
  6.450
  6.750
  6.990
  7.200
  7.380
  7.530
  7.660
  7.770
  7.870
  7.960
  8.040
  8.110
  8.170
  8.220
  8.280
  8.320
  8.360
  8.400
  8.440
  8.470
  8.500
  8.530
  8.560
  8.580
  8.600
  8.620
  8.640
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -159
  -136
  -168
  -203
  -239
  -279
  -320
  -364
  -410
  -458
  -500
  -553
  -608
  -665
  -725
  -786
  -851
  -918
  -987
  -1,059
  -1,134
  -1,212
  -1,294
  -1,378
  -1,466
  -1,558
  -1,654
  -1,753
  -1,857
  -1,966
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  88
  100
  114
  129
  144
  161
  178
  197
  216
  236
  248
  270
  293
  317
  342
  367
  394
  422
  450
  480
  512
  544
  578
  613
  649
  688
  727
  769
  812
  858
Funds from operations, $m
  -71
  -36
  -54
  -74
  -95
  -118
  -142
  -167
  -194
  -222
  -252
  -283
  -315
  -348
  -383
  -419
  -457
  -496
  -537
  -579
  -623
  -668
  -716
  -765
  -817
  -870
  -926
  -984
  -1,045
  -1,109
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Cash from operations, $m
  -74
  -39
  -58
  -78
  -99
  -122
  -147
  -172
  -199
  -228
  -257
  -288
  -321
  -355
  -390
  -426
  -464
  -503
  -544
  -587
  -631
  -677
  -725
  -775
  -827
  -881
  -937
  -996
  -1,057
  -1,121
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -67
  -79
  -92
  -105
  -120
  -136
  -152
  -170
  -188
  -207
  -227
  -248
  -270
  -293
  -317
  -342
  -367
  -394
  -422
  -450
  -480
  -512
  -544
  -578
  -613
  -649
  -688
  -727
  -769
  -812
New CAPEX, $m
  -116
  -126
  -136
  -146
  -156
  -165
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -210
  -219
  -228
  -238
  -247
  -257
  -267
  -277
  -288
  -299
  -311
  -324
  -337
  -351
  -366
  -382
  -398
  -415
  -434
  -453
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -183
  -205
  -228
  -251
  -276
  -301
  -327
  -354
  -381
  -409
  -437
  -467
  -498
  -531
  -564
  -599
  -634
  -671
  -710
  -749
  -791
  -836
  -881
  -929
  -979
  -1,031
  -1,086
  -1,142
  -1,203
  -1,265
Free cash flow, $m
  -258
  -245
  -286
  -330
  -375
  -423
  -473
  -526
  -580
  -636
  -695
  -756
  -820
  -885
  -954
  -1,024
  -1,098
  -1,175
  -1,254
  -1,337
  -1,423
  -1,513
  -1,606
  -1,704
  -1,805
  -1,912
  -2,022
  -2,138
  -2,259
  -2,386
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -213
  221
  238
  256
  272
  289
  305
  321
  337
  352
  367
  383
  399
  415
  431
  448
  466
  484
  503
  523
  544
  566
  589
  614
  639
  666
  695
  725
  757
  791
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  595
  161
  195
  231
  270
  311
  354
  400
  447
  497
  541
  595
  652
  711
  773
  836
  903
  971
  1,043
  1,117
  1,195
  1,275
  1,359
  1,446
  1,537
  1,632
  1,731
  1,834
  1,942
  2,054
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  382
  382
  433
  487
  542
  600
  659
  721
  784
  849
  908
  978
  1,051
  1,126
  1,204
  1,284
  1,369
  1,455
  1,546
  1,640
  1,739
  1,841
  1,948
  2,060
  2,176
  2,298
  2,426
  2,559
  2,699
  2,845
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  125
  137
  147
  157
  167
  176
  186
  195
  204
  213
  213
  222
  231
  241
  250
  260
  270
  281
  292
  304
  316
  329
  342
  356
  371
  387
  403
  421
  439
  459
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -595
  -161
  -195
  -231
  -270
  -311
  -354
  -400
  -447
  -497
  -541
  -595
  -652
  -711
  -773
  -836
  -903
  -971
  -1,043
  -1,117
  -1,195
  -1,275
  -1,359
  -1,446
  -1,537
  -1,632
  -1,731
  -1,834
  -1,942
  -2,054
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  91
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  20
  23
  27
  31
  35
  39
  44
  49
  55
  60
  66
  72
  78
  85
  92
  99
  107
  114
  122
  131
  139
  148
  158
  168
  178
  188
  200
  211
  223
  236
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -379
  -24
  -48
  -74
  -103
  -134
  -168
  -205
  -243
  -284
  -328
  -373
  -421
  -470
  -522
  -576
  -632
  -690
  -751
  -814
  -879
  -947
  -1,017
  -1,090
  -1,166
  -1,245
  -1,327
  -1,413
  -1,502
  -1,595
Discount rate, %
  10.90
  11.45
  12.02
  12.62
  13.25
  13.91
  14.61
  15.34
  16.10
  16.91
  17.75
  18.64
  19.57
  20.55
  21.58
  22.66
  23.79
  24.98
  26.23
  27.54
  28.92
  30.37
  31.89
  33.48
  35.15
  36.91
  38.76
  40.69
  42.73
  44.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -342
  -19
  -34
  -46
  -55
  -61
  -65
  -65
  -63
  -60
  -54
  -48
  -41
  -34
  -28
  -22
  -17
  -12
  -9
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  24.4
  11.7
  5.5
  2.5
  1.2
  0.5
  0.2
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Gogo Inc. is a holding company. The Company is a provider of in-flight broadband connectivity and connectivity-enabled services to commercial and business aviation. The Company operates through three segments: Commercial Aviation North America (CA-NA), Commercial Aviation Rest of World (CA-ROW) and Business Aviation (BA). The CA-NA segment offers air-to-ground (ATG) and satellite connectivity and entertainment services to commercial aircraft flying routes generally within North America. The CA-ROW segment offers satellite connectivity and entertainment services, using 2Ku and Ku solutions, to commercial aircraft flying routes outside of North America. The Company's BA segment offers a suite of integrated equipment, network and Internet connectivity products and services to the business aviation market. As of December 31, 2016, it provided services on 2,943 commercial aircraft. The Company offers a package of airborne equipment for its ATG-4/ATG and satellite services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Gogo (GOGO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.6
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book -8.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 19.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 152
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -2002.5%
Total Debt to Equity -2010%
Interest Coverage -3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -8%
Return On Total Capital -17.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.9%
Return On Equity -961.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -359.9%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 53.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.4%
EBITDA Margin 1.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Operating Margin -7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -20.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.7%
Net Profit Margin -20.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.1%
Effective Tax Rate -1.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Payout Ratio 0%

GOGO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GOGO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $699 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Gogo. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Gogo. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GOGO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.9%, whose default value for GOGO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Gogo, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Gogo.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GOGO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 104.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GOGO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 12.4% for Gogo.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Gogo. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GOGO stock is equal to 2.8%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GOGO are equal to 96.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Gogo operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GOGO is equal to 2.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-192 million for Gogo - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 79 million for Gogo is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Gogo at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ RM LAW Announces Class Action Lawsuit Against Gogo, Inc.   [Jul-16-18 07:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [05:14PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Troubled Gogo Faces Crucial Test After The Close   [11:09AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Gogo Inc (NASDAQ:GOGO): Is Breakeven Near?   [03:25PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Gogo AVANCE L5 Flying on 200th Business Jet   [Jun-13-18 10:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Why Iridium Communications, Inc. Stock Jumped Friday   [Jun-01-18 11:55AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Some Familiar Names Among Short Sellers' Top Stocks   [May-15-18 02:07PM  Benzinga]
▶ Why Gogo Inc. Shares Fell 11% Today   [11:45AM  Motley Fool]
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