Intrinsic value of Genuine Parts Company - GPC

Previous Close

$112.81

  Intrinsic Value

$113.98

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+1%

Previous close

$112.81

 
Intrinsic value

$113.98

 
Up/down potential

+1%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of GPC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 16.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.40
  8.96
  8.56
  8.21
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
Revenue, $m
  20,496
  22,333
  24,245
  26,235
  28,304
  30,455
  32,690
  35,012
  37,426
  39,935
  42,545
  45,259
  48,085
  51,027
  54,092
  57,286
  60,618
  64,093
  67,721
  71,510
  75,468
  79,604
  83,930
  88,453
  93,186
  98,140
  103,326
  108,757
  114,445
  120,405
Variable operating expenses, $m
  19,213
  20,902
  22,662
  24,493
  26,397
  28,376
  30,432
  32,569
  34,790
  37,098
  39,145
  41,643
  44,243
  46,950
  49,770
  52,709
  55,774
  58,972
  62,311
  65,796
  69,438
  73,244
  77,224
  81,386
  85,741
  90,299
  95,071
  100,068
  105,302
  110,785
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  19,213
  20,902
  22,662
  24,493
  26,397
  28,376
  30,432
  32,569
  34,790
  37,098
  39,145
  41,643
  44,243
  46,950
  49,770
  52,709
  55,774
  58,972
  62,311
  65,796
  69,438
  73,244
  77,224
  81,386
  85,741
  90,299
  95,071
  100,068
  105,302
  110,785
Operating income, $m
  1,284
  1,430
  1,583
  1,742
  1,907
  2,079
  2,258
  2,443
  2,636
  2,837
  3,399
  3,616
  3,842
  4,077
  4,322
  4,577
  4,843
  5,121
  5,411
  5,713
  6,030
  6,360
  6,706
  7,067
  7,445
  7,841
  8,255
  8,689
  9,144
  9,620
EBITDA, $m
  1,799
  1,960
  2,128
  2,302
  2,484
  2,673
  2,869
  3,073
  3,284
  3,505
  3,734
  3,972
  4,220
  4,478
  4,747
  5,027
  5,320
  5,625
  5,943
  6,275
  6,623
  6,986
  7,365
  7,762
  8,178
  8,612
  9,068
  9,544
  10,043
  10,566
Interest expense (income), $m
  19
  170
  217
  266
  316
  369
  425
  482
  541
  603
  667
  734
  804
  876
  951
  1,029
  1,111
  1,196
  1,285
  1,377
  1,474
  1,574
  1,680
  1,790
  1,905
  2,025
  2,151
  2,283
  2,421
  2,566
  2,717
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,114
  1,214
  1,317
  1,426
  1,538
  1,655
  1,776
  1,902
  2,033
  2,169
  2,665
  2,812
  2,966
  3,126
  3,292
  3,466
  3,647
  3,836
  4,033
  4,240
  4,455
  4,680
  4,916
  5,162
  5,420
  5,689
  5,972
  6,268
  6,578
  6,902
Tax expense, $m
  301
  328
  356
  385
  415
  447
  480
  514
  549
  586
  720
  759
  801
  844
  889
  936
  985
  1,036
  1,089
  1,145
  1,203
  1,264
  1,327
  1,394
  1,463
  1,536
  1,612
  1,692
  1,776
  1,864
Net income, $m
  813
  886
  962
  1,041
  1,123
  1,208
  1,296
  1,388
  1,484
  1,584
  1,945
  2,053
  2,165
  2,282
  2,403
  2,530
  2,662
  2,800
  2,944
  3,095
  3,252
  3,417
  3,588
  3,768
  3,956
  4,153
  4,360
  4,576
  4,802
  5,039

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  13,877
  15,120
  16,415
  17,762
  19,163
  20,619
  22,132
  23,705
  25,339
  27,038
  28,805
  30,643
  32,556
  34,547
  36,623
  38,785
  41,041
  43,394
  45,850
  48,416
  51,095
  53,896
  56,824
  59,887
  63,092
  66,446
  69,957
  73,634
  77,485
  81,520
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  13,877
  15,120
  16,415
  17,762
  19,163
  20,619
  22,132
  23,705
  25,339
  27,038
  28,805
  30,643
  32,556
  34,547
  36,623
  38,785
  41,041
  43,394
  45,850
  48,416
  51,095
  53,896
  56,824
  59,887
  63,092
  66,446
  69,957
  73,634
  77,485
  81,520
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
Average production assets, $m
  3,013
  3,283
  3,564
  3,857
  4,161
  4,477
  4,805
  5,147
  5,502
  5,870
  6,254
  6,653
  7,068
  7,501
  7,951
  8,421
  8,911
  9,422
  9,955
  10,512
  11,094
  11,702
  12,338
  13,003
  13,698
  14,427
  15,189
  15,987
  16,823
  17,699
Working capital, $m
  2,255
  2,457
  2,667
  2,886
  3,113
  3,350
  3,596
  3,851
  4,117
  4,393
  4,680
  4,979
  5,289
  5,613
  5,950
  6,301
  6,668
  7,050
  7,449
  7,866
  8,301
  8,756
  9,232
  9,730
  10,251
  10,795
  11,366
  11,963
  12,589
  13,245
Total debt, $m
  4,013
  4,918
  5,861
  6,842
  7,862
  8,922
  10,023
  11,168
  12,358
  13,594
  14,880
  16,219
  17,611
  19,061
  20,572
  22,147
  23,789
  25,502
  27,290
  29,157
  31,108
  33,147
  35,279
  37,509
  39,841
  42,283
  44,839
  47,516
  50,320
  53,257
Total liabilities, $m
  10,102
  11,008
  11,950
  12,931
  13,951
  15,011
  16,112
  17,257
  18,447
  19,684
  20,970
  22,308
  23,700
  25,151
  26,661
  28,236
  29,878
  31,591
  33,379
  35,246
  37,197
  39,236
  41,368
  43,598
  45,931
  48,372
  50,929
  53,605
  56,409
  59,346
Total equity, $m
  3,774
  4,113
  4,465
  4,831
  5,212
  5,608
  6,020
  6,448
  6,892
  7,354
  7,835
  8,335
  8,855
  9,397
  9,961
  10,550
  11,163
  11,803
  12,471
  13,169
  13,898
  14,660
  15,456
  16,289
  17,161
  18,073
  19,028
  20,028
  21,076
  22,173
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  13,876
  15,121
  16,415
  17,762
  19,163
  20,619
  22,132
  23,705
  25,339
  27,038
  28,805
  30,643
  32,555
  34,548
  36,622
  38,786
  41,041
  43,394
  45,850
  48,415
  51,095
  53,896
  56,824
  59,887
  63,092
  66,445
  69,957
  73,633
  77,485
  81,519
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.060
  1.200
  1.310
  1.420
  1.510
  1.590
  1.660
  1.730
  1.790
  1.850
  1.900
  1.950
  1.990
  2.030
  2.070
  2.100
  2.130
  2.160
  2.190
  2.210
  2.240
  2.260
  2.280
  2.300
  2.320
  2.340
  2.360
  2.370
  2.390
  2.400
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  813
  886
  962
  1,041
  1,123
  1,208
  1,296
  1,388
  1,484
  1,584
  1,945
  2,053
  2,165
  2,282
  2,403
  2,530
  2,662
  2,800
  2,944
  3,095
  3,252
  3,417
  3,588
  3,768
  3,956
  4,153
  4,360
  4,576
  4,802
  5,039
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  515
  530
  545
  560
  576
  593
  611
  629
  648
  668
  334
  356
  378
  401
  425
  450
  477
  504
  532
  562
  593
  626
  660
  695
  733
  771
  812
  855
  900
  946
Funds from operations, $m
  1,328
  1,415
  1,506
  1,601
  1,699
  1,801
  1,907
  2,018
  2,132
  2,252
  2,280
  2,409
  2,543
  2,683
  2,829
  2,981
  3,139
  3,304
  3,477
  3,657
  3,845
  4,042
  4,248
  4,464
  4,689
  4,925
  5,172
  5,430
  5,701
  5,985
Change in working capital, $m
  194
  202
  210
  219
  228
  237
  246
  255
  266
  276
  287
  299
  311
  324
  337
  351
  366
  382
  399
  417
  435
  455
  476
  498
  521
  545
  570
  597
  626
  656
Cash from operations, $m
  1,134
  1,213
  1,296
  1,382
  1,472
  1,565
  1,662
  1,762
  1,867
  1,976
  1,993
  2,110
  2,232
  2,359
  2,491
  2,629
  2,772
  2,922
  3,078
  3,240
  3,410
  3,587
  3,772
  3,966
  4,168
  4,380
  4,601
  4,833
  5,076
  5,330
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -147
  -161
  -176
  -191
  -206
  -222
  -239
  -257
  -275
  -294
  -314
  -334
  -356
  -378
  -401
  -425
  -450
  -477
  -504
  -532
  -562
  -593
  -626
  -660
  -695
  -733
  -771
  -812
  -855
  -900
New CAPEX, $m
  -257
  -270
  -281
  -293
  -304
  -316
  -329
  -341
  -355
  -369
  -384
  -399
  -415
  -432
  -451
  -470
  -490
  -511
  -533
  -557
  -582
  -608
  -636
  -665
  -696
  -728
  -762
  -798
  -836
  -876
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -404
  -431
  -457
  -484
  -510
  -538
  -568
  -598
  -630
  -663
  -698
  -733
  -771
  -810
  -852
  -895
  -940
  -988
  -1,037
  -1,089
  -1,144
  -1,201
  -1,262
  -1,325
  -1,391
  -1,461
  -1,533
  -1,610
  -1,691
  -1,776
Free cash flow, $m
  730
  782
  839
  899
  961
  1,026
  1,094
  1,164
  1,237
  1,312
  1,295
  1,377
  1,461
  1,549
  1,640
  1,734
  1,832
  1,934
  2,041
  2,151
  2,266
  2,386
  2,511
  2,641
  2,777
  2,919
  3,068
  3,223
  3,385
  3,554
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  870
  905
  943
  981
  1,020
  1,060
  1,102
  1,145
  1,190
  1,237
  1,286
  1,338
  1,393
  1,450
  1,511
  1,575
  1,642
  1,713
  1,788
  1,867
  1,951
  2,039
  2,132
  2,230
  2,333
  2,442
  2,556
  2,677
  2,804
  2,937
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  870
  905
  943
  981
  1,020
  1,060
  1,102
  1,145
  1,190
  1,237
  1,286
  1,338
  1,393
  1,450
  1,511
  1,575
  1,642
  1,713
  1,788
  1,867
  1,951
  2,039
  2,132
  2,230
  2,333
  2,442
  2,556
  2,677
  2,804
  2,937
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,600
  1,688
  1,782
  1,880
  1,981
  2,086
  2,195
  2,309
  2,427
  2,549
  2,582
  2,715
  2,854
  2,999
  3,150
  3,309
  3,474
  3,648
  3,829
  4,018
  4,217
  4,425
  4,643
  4,871
  5,110
  5,361
  5,624
  5,899
  6,188
  6,491
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -324
  -338
  -352
  -366
  -381
  -396
  -412
  -428
  -445
  -462
  -481
  -500
  -520
  -542
  -564
  -588
  -613
  -640
  -668
  -698
  -729
  -762
  -797
  -833
  -872
  -912
  -955
  -1,000
  -1,048
  -1,097
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,276
  1,349
  1,430
  1,513
  1,600
  1,690
  1,784
  1,881
  1,982
  2,087
  2,101
  2,215
  2,334
  2,457
  2,586
  2,721
  2,861
  3,008
  3,161
  3,321
  3,488
  3,663
  3,846
  4,038
  4,238
  4,449
  4,669
  4,899
  5,141
  5,394
Discount rate, %
  5.70
  5.99
  6.28
  6.60
  6.93
  7.27
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.28
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.44
  13.06
  13.72
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.51
  18.38
  19.30
  20.27
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,207
  1,201
  1,191
  1,172
  1,145
  1,109
  1,065
  1,015
  957
  894
  791
  725
  657
  588
  520
  453
  390
  330
  275
  225
  181
  143
  111
  84
  62
  45
  32
  22
  15
  10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Genuine Parts Company is a service organization engaged in the distribution of automotive replacement parts, industrial replacement parts, office products and electrical/electronic materials. The Company's segments include Automotive, Industrial, Office Products Group, Electrical/Electronic Materials and Other. The automotive segment distributes replacement parts for all makes and models of automobiles, trucks and other vehicles. The industrial segment distributes a range of industrial bearings, mechanical and fluid power transmission equipment, including hydraulic and pneumatic products, material handling components and related parts and supplies. The office products segment distributes a range of office products, computer supplies, office furniture, and business electronics. The electrical/electronic materials segment distributes a range of electrical/electronic materials, including insulating and conductive materials for use in electronic and electrical apparatus.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Genuine Parts Company (GPC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.4
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 5.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 46.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 18.4%
Total Debt to Equity 28.6%
Interest Coverage 58
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Return On Total Capital 17.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.5%
Return On Equity 21.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.7%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.9%
EBITDA Margin 8.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Operating Margin 7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Net Profit Margin 4.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Effective Tax Rate 36%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.5%
Payout Ratio 56.3%

GPC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GPC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $18735 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Genuine Parts Company. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Genuine Parts Company. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GPC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.7%, whose default value for GPC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Genuine Parts Company, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Genuine Parts Company.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GPC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GPC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Genuine Parts Company.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Genuine Parts Company. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GPC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GPC are equal to 14.7%.

Life of production assets of 18.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Genuine Parts Company operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GPC is equal to 11%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3450.451 million for Genuine Parts Company - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 145.913 million for Genuine Parts Company is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Genuine Parts Company at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $16.5 billion.

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