Intrinsic value of GoPro - GPRO

Previous Close

$6.20

  Intrinsic Value

$0.23

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

Previous close

$6.20

 
Intrinsic value

$0.23

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of GPRO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,204
  1,231
  1,263
  1,298
  1,338
  1,381
  1,428
  1,479
  1,534
  1,593
  1,656
  1,723
  1,794
  1,870
  1,951
  2,037
  2,127
  2,223
  2,324
  2,431
  2,543
  2,662
  2,787
  2,919
  3,058
  3,205
  3,359
  3,521
  3,691
  3,871
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,582
  1,618
  1,660
  1,706
  1,757
  1,813
  1,874
  1,940
  2,012
  2,088
  2,153
  2,241
  2,334
  2,432
  2,537
  2,649
  2,766
  2,891
  3,022
  3,161
  3,308
  3,462
  3,625
  3,797
  3,978
  4,168
  4,368
  4,579
  4,801
  5,034
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,582
  1,618
  1,660
  1,706
  1,757
  1,813
  1,874
  1,940
  2,012
  2,088
  2,153
  2,241
  2,334
  2,432
  2,537
  2,649
  2,766
  2,891
  3,022
  3,161
  3,308
  3,462
  3,625
  3,797
  3,978
  4,168
  4,368
  4,579
  4,801
  5,034
Operating income, $m
  -379
  -387
  -397
  -407
  -419
  -432
  -446
  -462
  -478
  -496
  -498
  -518
  -539
  -562
  -586
  -612
  -639
  -668
  -698
  -730
  -764
  -800
  -838
  -877
  -919
  -963
  -1,009
  -1,058
  -1,109
  -1,163
EBITDA, $m
  -336
  -344
  -353
  -363
  -374
  -386
  -399
  -413
  -429
  -445
  -463
  -482
  -502
  -523
  -545
  -569
  -595
  -621
  -650
  -679
  -711
  -744
  -779
  -816
  -855
  -896
  -939
  -984
  -1,032
  -1,082
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  27
  30
  32
  36
  39
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  68
  74
  81
  88
  95
  103
  112
  120
  130
  140
  150
  161
  173
  185
  198
  212
  226
  241
  257
  274
Earnings before tax, $m
  -406
  -417
  -429
  -443
  -458
  -475
  -493
  -513
  -535
  -558
  -565
  -592
  -620
  -650
  -682
  -715
  -751
  -788
  -828
  -870
  -915
  -961
  -1,011
  -1,063
  -1,117
  -1,175
  -1,236
  -1,299
  -1,367
  -1,437
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -406
  -417
  -429
  -443
  -458
  -475
  -493
  -513
  -535
  -558
  -565
  -592
  -620
  -650
  -682
  -715
  -751
  -788
  -828
  -870
  -915
  -961
  -1,011
  -1,063
  -1,117
  -1,175
  -1,236
  -1,299
  -1,367
  -1,437

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  867
  887
  910
  935
  964
  995
  1,029
  1,066
  1,105
  1,147
  1,193
  1,241
  1,293
  1,348
  1,406
  1,467
  1,533
  1,601
  1,674
  1,751
  1,832
  1,918
  2,008
  2,103
  2,203
  2,309
  2,420
  2,537
  2,659
  2,789
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  867
  887
  910
  935
  964
  995
  1,029
  1,066
  1,105
  1,147
  1,193
  1,241
  1,293
  1,348
  1,406
  1,467
  1,533
  1,601
  1,674
  1,751
  1,832
  1,918
  2,008
  2,103
  2,203
  2,309
  2,420
  2,537
  2,659
  2,789
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.389
  1.388
  1.388
  1.388
  1.388
  1.388
  1.388
  1.387
  1.388
  1.389
  1.388
  1.388
  1.387
  1.387
  1.388
  1.389
  1.387
  1.389
  1.388
  1.388
  1.388
  1.388
  1.388
  1.388
  1.388
  1.388
  1.388
  1.388
  1.388
  1.388
Average production assets, $m
  253
  259
  265
  273
  281
  290
  300
  311
  322
  334
  348
  362
  377
  393
  410
  428
  447
  467
  488
  510
  534
  559
  585
  613
  642
  673
  705
  739
  775
  813
Working capital, $m
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
Total debt, $m
  142
  155
  169
  186
  204
  225
  247
  270
  296
  323
  353
  384
  418
  453
  491
  531
  573
  618
  665
  715
  768
  824
  882
  944
  1,009
  1,077
  1,149
  1,225
  1,305
  1,389
Total liabilities, $m
  563
  576
  591
  607
  626
  646
  668
  692
  717
  745
  774
  806
  839
  875
  912
  952
  995
  1,039
  1,087
  1,137
  1,189
  1,245
  1,303
  1,365
  1,430
  1,498
  1,570
  1,646
  1,726
  1,810
Total equity, $m
  304
  311
  319
  328
  338
  349
  361
  374
  388
  403
  419
  436
  454
  473
  493
  515
  538
  562
  588
  615
  643
  673
  705
  738
  773
  810
  849
  890
  933
  979
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  867
  887
  910
  935
  964
  995
  1,029
  1,066
  1,105
  1,148
  1,193
  1,242
  1,293
  1,348
  1,405
  1,467
  1,533
  1,601
  1,675
  1,752
  1,832
  1,918
  2,008
  2,103
  2,203
  2,308
  2,419
  2,536
  2,659
  2,789
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.470
  0.500
  0.530
  0.570
  0.600
  0.640
  0.680
  0.720
  0.760
  0.800
  0.840
  0.880
  0.920
  0.960
  1.000
  1.030
  1.070
  1.100
  1.130
  1.160
  1.190
  1.220
  1.250
  1.280
  1.300
  1.330
  1.350
  1.380
  1.400
  1.420
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -406
  -417
  -429
  -443
  -458
  -475
  -493
  -513
  -535
  -558
  -565
  -592
  -620
  -650
  -682
  -715
  -751
  -788
  -828
  -870
  -915
  -961
  -1,011
  -1,063
  -1,117
  -1,175
  -1,236
  -1,299
  -1,367
  -1,437
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  42
  43
  44
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  81
Funds from operations, $m
  -364
  -374
  -385
  -398
  -413
  -429
  -446
  -465
  -485
  -507
  -531
  -556
  -582
  -611
  -641
  -672
  -706
  -742
  -779
  -819
  -861
  -905
  -952
  -1,001
  -1,053
  -1,108
  -1,165
  -1,225
  -1,289
  -1,356
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  -364
  -374
  -386
  -399
  -413
  -429
  -447
  -466
  -486
  -508
  -531
  -556
  -583
  -611
  -641
  -673
  -707
  -743
  -780
  -820
  -862
  -907
  -953
  -1,003
  -1,054
  -1,109
  -1,167
  -1,227
  -1,291
  -1,358
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
Free cash flow, $m
  -393
  -405
  -418
  -433
  -449
  -467
  -486
  -506
  -529
  -552
  -578
  -605
  -634
  -665
  -698
  -732
  -769
  -807
  -848
  -891
  -937
  -985
  -1,036
  -1,089
  -1,145
  -1,204
  -1,266
  -1,332
  -1,400
  -1,473
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  411
  424
  437
  452
  468
  486
  505
  526
  549
  573
  581
  609
  638
  669
  702
  737
  774
  813
  854
  897
  943
  991
  1,042
  1,096
  1,152
  1,212
  1,275
  1,340
  1,410
  1,483
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  423
  437
  452
  469
  486
  506
  527
  550
  575
  601
  610
  640
  671
  705
  740
  777
  816
  858
  901
  947
  996
  1,047
  1,101
  1,158
  1,217
  1,280
  1,347
  1,416
  1,490
  1,567
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -411
  -424
  -437
  -452
  -468
  -486
  -505
  -526
  -549
  -573
  -581
  -609
  -638
  -669
  -702
  -737
  -774
  -813
  -854
  -897
  -943
  -991
  -1,042
  -1,096
  -1,152
  -1,212
  -1,275
  -1,340
  -1,410
  -1,483
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  51
  52
  53
  54
  56
  58
  59
  61
  64
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  91
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  159
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -382
  -392
  -403
  -416
  -430
  -446
  -464
  -483
  -503
  -525
  -549
  -574
  -601
  -629
  -660
  -692
  -726
  -763
  -801
  -842
  -884
  -929
  -977
  -1,027
  -1,080
  -1,136
  -1,194
  -1,256
  -1,321
  -1,389
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -366
  -359
  -351
  -343
  -334
  -324
  -313
  -302
  -289
  -275
  -261
  -245
  -228
  -211
  -194
  -176
  -158
  -140
  -123
  -107
  -91
  -77
  -64
  -52
  -42
  -33
  -26
  -19
  -14
  -10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  67.5
  45.4
  30.5
  20.4
  13.6
  9.1
  6.0
  4.0
  2.6
  1.7
  1.2
  0.8
  0.5
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

GoPro, Inc. (GoPro) produces cameras and mountable and wearable accessories. The Company's product offerings include HERO5, which is a line of cloud-connected cameras featuring image stabilization, telemetry, cloud connectivity and voice control; GoPro Plus, which is a cloud-based storage solution that enables subscribers to access, edit and share content; Quik, which is a mobile editing application that creates edits on a smartphone; Capture, which is a mobile application that allows users to preview and play back shots, control their GoPro cameras and share content on the fly using their smartphones; Karma, which is its compact and foldable drone and versatile stabilization solution that includes the Karma controller, and camera stabilizer, and it all fits in a custom backpack, and Karma Grip, which is a handheld, body-mountable camera stabilizer. It also offers a full ecosystem of mountable, wearable and voice activated accessories.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  GoPro (GPRO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.1
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -8.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -5.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -26.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -13.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 19.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -41.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.2%
Return On Total Capital -68.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.9%
Return On Equity -68.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.2%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.8%
EBITDA Margin -28.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.9%
Operating Margin -31.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -31.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.1%
Net Profit Margin -35.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8%
Effective Tax Rate -11.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

GPRO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GPRO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1180 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by GoPro. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of GoPro. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GPRO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GPRO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of GoPro, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of GoPro.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GPRO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 131.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GPRO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 21% for GoPro.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for GoPro. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GPRO stock is equal to 4.3%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GPRO are equal to 21%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in GoPro operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GPRO is equal to 1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $299 million for GoPro - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 138 million for GoPro is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of GoPro at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Ty Ahmad-Taylor Appointed to GoPro's Board of Directors   [Jun-19-18 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
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▶ Why GoPro Stock's Recent Turnaround Will Be Short-Lived   [Jun-10-18 12:01PM  Motley Fool]
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▶ GoPro's Earnings Beat Wasn't as Impressive as You Think   [May-08-18 02:05PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why GoPro Inc's Shares Popped 12% Today   [03:31PM  Motley Fool]
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