Intrinsic value of Gorman-Rupp - GRC

Previous Close

$33.45

  Intrinsic Value

$2.75

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

Previous close

$33.45

 
Intrinsic value

$2.75

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of GRC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.30
  13.37
  12.53
  11.78
  11.10
  10.49
  9.94
  9.45
  9.00
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.63
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
Revenue, $m
  434
  492
  553
  618
  687
  759
  835
  913
  996
  1,081
  1,171
  1,263
  1,360
  1,460
  1,564
  1,672
  1,784
  1,901
  2,023
  2,149
  2,281
  2,418
  2,561
  2,711
  2,866
  3,029
  3,198
  3,375
  3,561
  3,754
Variable operating expenses, $m
  393
  445
  501
  559
  621
  686
  753
  824
  898
  975
  1,051
  1,134
  1,221
  1,311
  1,404
  1,501
  1,602
  1,707
  1,816
  1,930
  2,048
  2,172
  2,300
  2,434
  2,574
  2,720
  2,872
  3,031
  3,197
  3,371
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  393
  445
  501
  559
  621
  686
  753
  824
  898
  975
  1,051
  1,134
  1,221
  1,311
  1,404
  1,501
  1,602
  1,707
  1,816
  1,930
  2,048
  2,172
  2,300
  2,434
  2,574
  2,720
  2,872
  3,031
  3,197
  3,371
Operating income, $m
  40
  46
  53
  59
  66
  74
  81
  89
  98
  107
  119
  129
  139
  149
  159
  171
  182
  194
  206
  219
  233
  247
  261
  276
  292
  309
  326
  344
  363
  383
EBITDA, $m
  59
  67
  76
  85
  94
  104
  114
  125
  136
  148
  160
  173
  186
  200
  214
  229
  244
  260
  277
  294
  312
  331
  350
  371
  392
  414
  438
  462
  487
  514
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
Earnings before tax, $m
  40
  46
  52
  58
  64
  71
  78
  85
  92
  100
  112
  121
  130
  139
  149
  159
  169
  180
  191
  203
  215
  228
  241
  255
  269
  284
  300
  316
  333
  351
Tax expense, $m
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
Net income, $m
  30
  33
  38
  42
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  73
  82
  88
  95
  102
  109
  116
  123
  131
  140
  148
  157
  166
  176
  186
  197
  207
  219
  231
  243
  256

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  413
  468
  527
  589
  654
  723
  795
  870
  948
  1,030
  1,115
  1,203
  1,295
  1,390
  1,489
  1,592
  1,699
  1,811
  1,926
  2,047
  2,172
  2,303
  2,439
  2,581
  2,730
  2,884
  3,046
  3,215
  3,391
  3,575
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  413
  468
  527
  589
  654
  723
  795
  870
  948
  1,030
  1,115
  1,203
  1,295
  1,390
  1,489
  1,592
  1,699
  1,811
  1,926
  2,047
  2,172
  2,303
  2,439
  2,581
  2,730
  2,884
  3,046
  3,215
  3,391
  3,575
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.051
  1.051
  1.049
  1.049
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.049
  1.051
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
Average production assets, $m
  160
  181
  204
  228
  254
  280
  308
  337
  367
  399
  432
  466
  502
  539
  577
  617
  658
  702
  746
  793
  842
  892
  945
  1,000
  1,058
  1,118
  1,180
  1,246
  1,314
  1,385
Working capital, $m
  118
  133
  150
  168
  186
  206
  226
  248
  270
  293
  317
  342
  368
  396
  424
  453
  484
  515
  548
  582
  618
  655
  694
  735
  777
  821
  867
  915
  965
  1,017
Total debt, $m
  10
  21
  32
  44
  57
  70
  84
  98
  114
  129
  146
  163
  180
  199
  218
  238
  258
  280
  302
  326
  350
  375
  401
  429
  457
  487
  518
  551
  585
  621
Total liabilities, $m
  80
  90
  102
  114
  126
  140
  153
  168
  183
  199
  215
  232
  250
  268
  287
  307
  328
  349
  372
  395
  419
  444
  471
  498
  527
  557
  588
  620
  654
  690
Total equity, $m
  333
  378
  425
  475
  528
  583
  641
  702
  765
  831
  900
  971
  1,045
  1,122
  1,202
  1,285
  1,371
  1,461
  1,555
  1,652
  1,753
  1,859
  1,969
  2,083
  2,203
  2,328
  2,458
  2,594
  2,737
  2,885
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  413
  468
  527
  589
  654
  723
  794
  870
  948
  1,030
  1,115
  1,203
  1,295
  1,390
  1,489
  1,592
  1,699
  1,810
  1,927
  2,047
  2,172
  2,303
  2,440
  2,581
  2,730
  2,885
  3,046
  3,214
  3,391
  3,575
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.030
  0.060
  0.080
  0.090
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807
  0.807

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  30
  33
  38
  42
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  73
  82
  88
  95
  102
  109
  116
  123
  131
  140
  148
  157
  166
  176
  186
  197
  207
  219
  231
  243
  256
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  36
  38
  41
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  118
  124
  131
Funds from operations, $m
  48
  54
  61
  67
  74
  82
  89
  98
  106
  115
  123
  132
  142
  152
  163
  174
  186
  198
  210
  223
  236
  250
  265
  280
  296
  313
  330
  348
  367
  387
Change in working capital, $m
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
Cash from operations, $m
  34
  39
  44
  50
  56
  62
  69
  76
  84
  91
  99
  107
  116
  125
  135
  145
  155
  166
  177
  189
  201
  213
  226
  240
  254
  269
  284
  300
  317
  335
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -124
New CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -186
  -195
Free cash flow, $m
  0
  2
  4
  6
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  25
  28
  32
  37
  41
  46
  50
  55
  61
  66
  72
  77
  83
  89
  96
  102
  109
  116
  124
  131
  139
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  12
  11
  10
  8
  6
  4
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  22
  22
  21
  20
  19
  17
  15
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  33
  37
  41
  44
  49
  54
  59
  65
  70
  76
  82
  88
  95
  101
  108
  116
  123
  131
  139
  147
  156
  165
  175
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  15
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -27
  -25
  -24
  -22
  -20
  -18
  -15
  -13
  -10
  -8
  -5
  -2
  0
  3
  6
  8
  11
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  14
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -18
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.5
  97.2
  96.3
  95.6
  95.2
  94.9
  94.8
  94.8
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The Gorman-Rupp Company designs, manufactures and sells pumps and pump systems. The Company offers its products for use in dewatering; petroleum original equipment; agriculture; fire protection; heating, ventilating and air conditioning; military, and other liquid-handling applications. The Company operates in the manufacture and international sale of pumps and pump systems segment. The Company produces various types of pumps, which include self-priming centrifugal, standard centrifugal, magnetic drive centrifugal, axial and mixed flow, vertical turbine line shaft, submersible, high pressure booster, rotary gear, diaphragm, bellows and oscillating. Its larger pumps are sold for use in the construction, industrial, water and wastewater handling fields; for flood control; for improving low residential water pressure, and for pumping refined petroleum products, including the ground refueling of aircraft, and for various agricultural purposes.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Gorman-Rupp (GRC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 34.9
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 19
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -12.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -19.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Return On Total Capital 8.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Return On Equity 8.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
EBITDA Margin 13.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Operating Margin 9.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Net Profit Margin 6.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Effective Tax Rate 30.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.1%
Payout Ratio 44%

GRC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GRC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $379.389 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Gorman-Rupp. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Gorman-Rupp. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GRC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GRC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Gorman-Rupp, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Gorman-Rupp.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GRC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GRC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Gorman-Rupp.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Gorman-Rupp. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GRC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GRC are equal to 36.9%.

Life of production assets of 10.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Gorman-Rupp operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GRC is equal to 27.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $325.495 million for Gorman-Rupp - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 26.117 million for Gorman-Rupp is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Gorman-Rupp at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ The Gorman-Rupp Company (NYSE:GRC): Ex-Dividend Is In 4 Days   [Nov-09-18 09:37AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Gorman-Rupp: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Oct-26-18 06:50AM  Associated Press]
▶ Spotlight On The Gorman-Rupp Companys (NYSE:GRC) Fundamentals   [Aug-30-18 08:31AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Gorman-Rupp Company Declares Cash Dividend   [Jul-27-18 06:40AM  Business Wire]
▶ Gorman-Rupp Company Declares Cash Dividend   [Apr-27-18 06:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Gorman-Rupp: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-26-18 08:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ How Financially Strong Is Grupa RECYKL SA. (WSE:GRC)?   [Apr-04-18 01:15PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Gorman-Rupp posts 4Q profit   [Feb-09-18 06:35AM  Associated Press]
▶ Gorman-Rupp posts 3Q profit   [Oct-27-17 07:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ Gorman-Rupp posts 2Q profit   [Jul-28-17 09:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Gorman-Rupp Company Declares Cash Dividend   [06:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to The Gorman-Rupp Co. : July 24, 2017   [Jul-24-17 04:15PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to The Gorman-Rupp Co. : July 14, 2017   [Jul-14-17 02:41PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to The Gorman-Rupp Co. : June 22, 2017   [Jun-22-17 03:46PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Should You Get Rid of Gorman-Rupp (GRC) Now?   [May-26-17 08:48AM  Zacks]
▶ Gorman-Rupp Announces Transfer to NYSE   [May-03-17 06:50AM  Business Wire]
▶ Gorman-Rupp Company Declares Cash Dividend   [Apr-28-17 06:50AM  Business Wire]
▶ Gorman-Rupp posts 1Q profit   [Apr-27-17 08:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ How ePlus Inc. (PLUS) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-12-16 05:17PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Gorman-Rupp Announces Subsidiary's Completed Acquisition   [Nov-30-16 05:00PM  Business Wire]

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