Intrinsic value of Griffin Industrial Realty - GRIF

Previous Close

$35.25

  Intrinsic Value

$9.38

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-73%

Previous close

$35.25

 
Intrinsic value

$9.38

 
Up/down potential

-73%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of GRIF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  45
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
Variable operating expenses, $m
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  69
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
Total operating expenses, $m
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  71
  73
  76
  80
  82
  86
  90
Operating income, $m
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
EBITDA, $m
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
Earnings before tax, $m
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
Tax expense, $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
Net income, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  251
  257
  264
  271
  280
  289
  298
  309
  320
  333
  346
  360
  375
  391
  408
  426
  444
  464
  486
  508
  531
  556
  582
  610
  639
  670
  702
  736
  771
  809
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  251
  257
  264
  271
  280
  289
  298
  309
  320
  333
  346
  360
  375
  391
  408
  426
  444
  464
  486
  508
  531
  556
  582
  610
  639
  670
  702
  736
  771
  809
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.179
  0.179
  0.178
  0.177
  0.179
  0.176
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.177
  0.179
  0.178
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.178
  0.178
  0.179
  0.177
  0.177
  0.179
  0.178
  0.179
  0.179
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
Total debt, $m
  132
  136
  140
  144
  150
  155
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  241
  252
  265
  278
  292
  307
  322
  339
  356
  374
  393
  413
  434
  456
  480
Total liabilities, $m
  157
  161
  165
  169
  174
  180
  186
  193
  200
  208
  216
  225
  234
  244
  254
  266
  277
  290
  303
  317
  332
  347
  363
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  505
Total equity, $m
  95
  97
  99
  102
  105
  108
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  240
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  252
  258
  264
  271
  279
  288
  298
  309
  320
  333
  346
  360
  375
  391
  407
  426
  444
  465
  486
  508
  532
  556
  582
  610
  639
  670
  702
  736
  771
  809
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.400
  1.400
  1.410
  1.420
  1.420
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
  1.480
  1.480
  1.490
  1.500
  1.500
  1.510
  1.520
  1.520
  1.530
  1.530
  1.540
  1.550
  1.550
  1.560
  1.560
  1.570
  1.570
  1.570
  1.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
Discount rate, %
  8.90
  9.35
  9.81
  10.30
  10.82
  11.36
  11.93
  12.52
  13.15
  13.81
  14.50
  15.22
  15.98
  16.78
  17.62
  18.50
  19.43
  20.40
  21.42
  22.49
  23.61
  24.80
  26.03
  27.34
  28.70
  30.14
  31.65
  33.23
  34.89
  36.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  5
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Griffin Industrial Realty, Inc. is engaged in real estate business. The Company is principally engaged in developing, managing and leasing industrial/warehouse properties and office/flex properties. As of November 30, 2016, the Company owned 33 buildings comprising approximately 3,297,000 square feet that was 93% leased. As of November 30, 2016, approximately 87% of its owned square footage was industrial/warehouse space, with the balance principally office/flex space. As of November 30, 2016, approximately 96% of its industrial/warehouse space was leased and approximately 74% of its office/flex space was leased. As of November 30, 2016, in NE Tradeport, the Company held the rights to 795,000 square feet available for development under the State Traffic Certificate (STC), which was related to four approved building sites on approximately 70 acres and an approved addition to one of its existing buildings.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Griffin Industrial Realty (GRIF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 178
Price to Sales 5.7
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 25.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -14.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -38.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 120.9%
Total Debt to Equity 120.9%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Return On Total Capital 0.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0%
Return On Equity 1.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 71%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.5%
EBITDA Margin 48.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.5%
Operating Margin 19.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Net Profit Margin 3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
Payout Ratio 200%

GRIF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GRIF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $43.884 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Griffin Industrial Realty. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Griffin Industrial Realty. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GRIF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.9%, whose default value for GRIF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Griffin Industrial Realty, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Griffin Industrial Realty.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GRIF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 47.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $11 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GRIF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Griffin Industrial Realty.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Griffin Industrial Realty. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GRIF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GRIF are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Griffin Industrial Realty operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GRIF is equal to 2.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $93.053 million for Griffin Industrial Realty - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 5.029 million for Griffin Industrial Realty is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Griffin Industrial Realty at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Griffin: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Oct-09-18 09:37AM  Associated Press]
▶ Two industrial projects to bring combined $22M-plus investment to Concord   [Sep-12-18 07:09AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Griffin Announces Fiscal 2018 Third Quarter Leasing   [Sep-11-18 04:45PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin Announces Closing on Land Purchase   [Jul-20-18 08:36AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-10-18 08:55AM  Associated Press]
▶ Griffin Announces Fiscal 2018 Second Quarter Leasing   [Jun-12-18 09:17AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin Announces At-The-Market Offering Program   [May-10-18 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin reports 1Q loss   [Apr-09-18 09:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ Griffin Announces Fiscal 2018 First Quarter Leasing   [Mar-07-18 08:56AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin reports 4Q loss   [Feb-08-18 10:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ Griffin Announces Mortgage Loan Refinancing   [Jan-31-18 09:02AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin Announces Fiscal 2017 Fourth Quarter Leasing   [Dec-11-17 09:47AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin Announces 2017 Annual Dividend   [Nov-15-17 09:27AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin Announces Lease Agreement   [Oct-23-17 09:13AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin posts 3Q profit   [Oct-10-17 09:54AM  Associated Press]
▶ Griffin Announces Mortgage Loan Refinancing   [Sep-25-17 09:10AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin Announces Fiscal 2017 Third Quarter Leasing   [Sep-13-17 09:11AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin Announces Closing on Mortgage Loan   [Aug-31-17 09:08AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin Announces Closing on Land Purchase   [Aug-25-17 08:51AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin Announces Closing on Land Sale   [Aug-07-17 09:17AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin Announces Mortgage Loan Refinancing   [Jul-17-17 11:36AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin posts 2Q profit   [Jul-07-17 07:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ Griffin Announces Fiscal 2017 Second Quarter Leasing   [Jun-14-17 10:02AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin Announces Closing on Building Acquisition   [Jun-12-17 09:51AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin Announces Agreement for Building Acquisition   [May-23-17 09:18AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin Announces Closing on Land Sale   [May-01-17 09:50AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin reports 1Q loss   [Apr-07-17 10:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ Griffin Announces Closing on Mortgage Loan   [09:44AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin posts 4Q profit   [Feb-10-17 12:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ Griffin Announces Agreement for Land Sale   [10:02AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin Announces Closing on Mortgage Loan   [11:40AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin Announces Annual Dividend   [04:17PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin Announces Extension of Credit Line   [09:43AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Griffin Announces Stock Repurchase Program   [09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]

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