Intrinsic value of Garmin - GRMN

Previous Close

$64.46

  Intrinsic Value

$35.70

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-45%

Previous close

$64.46

 
Intrinsic value

$35.70

 
Up/down potential

-45%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of GRMN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 12.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
Revenue, $m
  3,158
  3,239
  3,330
  3,431
  3,542
  3,663
  3,793
  3,934
  4,085
  4,246
  4,419
  4,602
  4,797
  5,004
  5,223
  5,456
  5,701
  5,960
  6,234
  6,523
  6,828
  7,149
  7,488
  7,844
  8,220
  8,615
  9,030
  9,468
  9,928
  10,411
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,082
  1,109
  1,139
  1,172
  1,209
  1,249
  1,292
  1,338
  1,388
  1,441
  1,457
  1,517
  1,582
  1,650
  1,722
  1,799
  1,880
  1,965
  2,056
  2,151
  2,251
  2,357
  2,469
  2,586
  2,710
  2,840
  2,977
  3,122
  3,273
  3,433
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  1,421
  1,452
  1,484
  1,516
  1,550
  1,584
  1,619
  1,654
  1,691
  1,728
  1,766
  1,805
  1,844
  1,885
  1,927
  1,969
  2,012
  2,057
  2,102
  2,148
  2,195
  2,244
  2,293
  2,343
  2,395
  2,448
  2,501
  2,556
  2,613
  2,670
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,503
  2,561
  2,623
  2,688
  2,759
  2,833
  2,911
  2,992
  3,079
  3,169
  3,223
  3,322
  3,426
  3,535
  3,649
  3,768
  3,892
  4,022
  4,158
  4,299
  4,446
  4,601
  4,762
  4,929
  5,105
  5,288
  5,478
  5,678
  5,886
  6,103
Operating income, $m
  655
  678
  707
  742
  783
  830
  883
  941
  1,006
  1,077
  1,196
  1,280
  1,371
  1,469
  1,575
  1,688
  1,809
  1,939
  2,077
  2,224
  2,381
  2,549
  2,726
  2,915
  3,115
  3,327
  3,551
  3,790
  4,042
  4,308
EBITDA, $m
  788
  813
  845
  883
  927
  977
  1,034
  1,097
  1,166
  1,242
  1,324
  1,413
  1,510
  1,614
  1,726
  1,846
  1,974
  2,112
  2,258
  2,414
  2,580
  2,756
  2,943
  3,142
  3,353
  3,576
  3,813
  4,064
  4,330
  4,610
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  32
  36
  40
  45
  50
  55
  61
  66
  72
  79
  86
  93
  100
  108
  117
  125
  134
  144
Earnings before tax, $m
  655
  677
  704
  737
  776
  821
  871
  927
  989
  1,056
  1,172
  1,252
  1,339
  1,433
  1,534
  1,643
  1,759
  1,884
  2,017
  2,158
  2,309
  2,470
  2,640
  2,822
  3,014
  3,218
  3,435
  3,664
  3,907
  4,164
Tax expense, $m
  177
  183
  190
  199
  210
  222
  235
  250
  267
  285
  316
  338
  362
  387
  414
  444
  475
  509
  544
  583
  623
  667
  713
  762
  814
  869
  927
  989
  1,055
  1,124
Net income, $m
  478
  494
  514
  538
  567
  599
  636
  676
  722
  771
  855
  914
  978
  1,046
  1,120
  1,199
  1,284
  1,375
  1,472
  1,575
  1,686
  1,803
  1,928
  2,060
  2,200
  2,349
  2,507
  2,675
  2,852
  3,040

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,896
  5,022
  5,163
  5,320
  5,492
  5,679
  5,881
  6,099
  6,333
  6,584
  6,851
  7,135
  7,438
  7,758
  8,098
  8,458
  8,839
  9,241
  9,666
  10,114
  10,586
  11,084
  11,609
  12,162
  12,744
  13,356
  14,001
  14,679
  15,392
  16,142
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,896
  5,022
  5,163
  5,320
  5,492
  5,679
  5,881
  6,099
  6,333
  6,584
  6,851
  7,135
  7,438
  7,758
  8,098
  8,458
  8,839
  9,241
  9,666
  10,114
  10,586
  11,084
  11,609
  12,162
  12,744
  13,356
  14,001
  14,679
  15,392
  16,142
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
Average production assets, $m
  916
  939
  966
  995
  1,027
  1,062
  1,100
  1,141
  1,185
  1,231
  1,281
  1,335
  1,391
  1,451
  1,515
  1,582
  1,653
  1,729
  1,808
  1,892
  1,980
  2,073
  2,171
  2,275
  2,384
  2,498
  2,619
  2,746
  2,879
  3,019
Working capital, $m
  357
  366
  376
  388
  400
  414
  429
  445
  462
  480
  499
  520
  542
  565
  590
  616
  644
  674
  704
  737
  772
  808
  846
  886
  929
  973
  1,020
  1,070
  1,122
  1,176
Total debt, $m
  26
  57
  93
  132
  176
  223
  274
  329
  388
  451
  518
  590
  666
  747
  833
  923
  1,019
  1,120
  1,227
  1,340
  1,459
  1,585
  1,717
  1,856
  2,003
  2,157
  2,320
  2,491
  2,670
  2,859
Total liabilities, $m
  1,234
  1,266
  1,301
  1,341
  1,384
  1,431
  1,482
  1,537
  1,596
  1,659
  1,726
  1,798
  1,874
  1,955
  2,041
  2,131
  2,227
  2,329
  2,436
  2,549
  2,668
  2,793
  2,925
  3,065
  3,211
  3,366
  3,528
  3,699
  3,879
  4,068
Total equity, $m
  3,662
  3,756
  3,862
  3,979
  4,108
  4,248
  4,399
  4,562
  4,737
  4,924
  5,124
  5,337
  5,563
  5,803
  6,058
  6,327
  6,612
  6,912
  7,230
  7,565
  7,918
  8,291
  8,684
  9,097
  9,532
  9,990
  10,472
  10,980
  11,513
  12,074
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,896
  5,022
  5,163
  5,320
  5,492
  5,679
  5,881
  6,099
  6,333
  6,583
  6,850
  7,135
  7,437
  7,758
  8,099
  8,458
  8,839
  9,241
  9,666
  10,114
  10,586
  11,084
  11,609
  12,162
  12,743
  13,356
  14,000
  14,679
  15,392
  16,142
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.010
  0.020
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748
  0.748

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  478
  494
  514
  538
  567
  599
  636
  676
  722
  771
  855
  914
  978
  1,046
  1,120
  1,199
  1,284
  1,375
  1,472
  1,575
  1,686
  1,803
  1,928
  2,060
  2,200
  2,349
  2,507
  2,675
  2,852
  3,040
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  133
  135
  138
  141
  144
  147
  151
  155
  159
  164
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  250
  262
  275
  288
  302
Funds from operations, $m
  611
  629
  652
  679
  710
  746
  787
  832
  881
  935
  983
  1,047
  1,117
  1,191
  1,272
  1,358
  1,450
  1,548
  1,653
  1,765
  1,884
  2,010
  2,145
  2,287
  2,439
  2,599
  2,769
  2,949
  3,140
  3,342
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  55
Cash from operations, $m
  603
  620
  641
  667
  698
  733
  772
  816
  864
  917
  964
  1,027
  1,095
  1,168
  1,247
  1,331
  1,422
  1,519
  1,622
  1,732
  1,849
  1,974
  2,106
  2,247
  2,396
  2,555
  2,722
  2,900
  3,088
  3,287
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -90
  -92
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -217
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -288
New CAPEX, $m
  -19
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -109
  -116
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -218
  -229
  -240
  -252
  -265
  -277
  -291
  -305
  -320
  -336
  -353
  -371
  -389
  -408
  -428
Free cash flow, $m
  494
  505
  521
  542
  566
  595
  628
  665
  706
  752
  791
  845
  905
  969
  1,038
  1,113
  1,192
  1,278
  1,370
  1,467
  1,572
  1,683
  1,801
  1,927
  2,060
  2,202
  2,352
  2,511
  2,680
  2,859
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  26
  32
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  132
  139
  147
  154
  162
  171
  180
  189
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  26
  32
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  132
  139
  147
  154
  162
  171
  180
  189
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  519
  537
  557
  581
  609
  642
  679
  720
  765
  815
  858
  917
  981
  1,050
  1,124
  1,203
  1,288
  1,379
  1,477
  1,580
  1,691
  1,808
  1,933
  2,066
  2,207
  2,356
  2,514
  2,682
  2,860
  3,048
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -85
  -94
  -106
  -117
  -128
  -140
  -151
  -163
  -175
  -187
  -200
  -213
  -226
  -240
  -254
  -269
  -285
  -301
  -318
  -335
  -353
  -373
  -393
  -413
  -435
  -458
  -482
  -507
  -533
  -561
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  225
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
  133
  139
Cash available for distribution, $m
  659
  442
  451
  464
  481
  502
  527
  557
  590
  628
  658
  704
  755
  810
  869
  934
  1,004
  1,079
  1,159
  1,245
  1,337
  1,436
  1,541
  1,652
  1,771
  1,898
  2,032
  2,175
  2,326
  2,487
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  632
  405
  393
  382
  373
  364
  356
  348
  339
  329
  313
  301
  287
  272
  255
  237
  218
  199
  178
  158
  138
  119
  101
  84
  69
  55
  44
  34
  25
  19
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Garmin Ltd. (Garmin) and subsidiaries offer global positioning system (GPS) navigation and wireless devices and applications. The Company operates through five segments. It offers a range of auto navigation products, as well as a range of products and applications designed for the mobile GPS market. It offers products to consumers around the world, including Outdoor Handhelds, Wearable Devices, Golf Devices, and Dog Tracking and Training/Pet Obedience Devices. It offers a range of products designed for use in fitness and activity tracking. Garmin offers a range of products designed for use in fitness and activity tracking. Its aviation business segment is a provider of solutions to aircraft manufacturers, existing aircraft owners and operators, as well as military and government customers and serves a range of aircraft, including transport aircraft, business aviation, general aviation, experimental/light sport, helicopters, optionally piloted vehicles and unmanned aerial vehicles.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Garmin (GRMN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.8
Price to Sales 4
Price to Book 3.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 20
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Total Capital 15.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Return On Equity 15.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 55.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.4%
EBITDA Margin 23.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.8%
Operating Margin 20.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.1%
Net Profit Margin 16.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Effective Tax Rate 18.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.4%
Payout Ratio 94.1%

GRMN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GRMN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3087 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Garmin. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Garmin. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GRMN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GRMN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Garmin, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Garmin.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GRMN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 34.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1390 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GRMN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Garmin.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Garmin. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GRMN stock is equal to 1.4%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GRMN are equal to 29%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Garmin operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GRMN is equal to 11.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3802 million for Garmin - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 198 million for Garmin is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Garmin at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $12.8 billion.

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