Intrinsic value of GrubHub - GRUB

Previous Close

$111.94

  Intrinsic Value

$0.04

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$111.94

 
Intrinsic value

$0.04

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of GRUB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  38.50
  35.15
  32.14
  29.42
  26.98
  24.78
  22.80
  21.02
  19.42
  17.98
  16.68
  15.51
  14.46
  13.52
  12.66
  11.90
  11.21
  10.59
  10.03
  9.53
  9.07
  8.67
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.40
  7.16
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
Revenue, $m
  946
  1,278
  1,689
  2,186
  2,776
  3,464
  4,254
  5,148
  6,148
  7,254
  8,464
  9,776
  11,190
  12,703
  14,311
  16,014
  17,809
  19,694
  21,669
  23,733
  25,886
  28,130
  30,464
  32,892
  35,415
  38,038
  40,763
  43,595
  46,539
  49,601
Variable operating expenses, $m
  744
  967
  1,243
  1,576
  1,971
  2,432
  2,962
  3,561
  4,231
  4,972
  5,672
  6,552
  7,500
  8,514
  9,592
  10,733
  11,936
  13,199
  14,523
  15,906
  17,349
  18,853
  20,418
  22,045
  23,736
  25,494
  27,320
  29,218
  31,191
  33,243
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  744
  967
  1,243
  1,576
  1,971
  2,432
  2,962
  3,561
  4,231
  4,972
  5,672
  6,552
  7,500
  8,514
  9,592
  10,733
  11,936
  13,199
  14,523
  15,906
  17,349
  18,853
  20,418
  22,045
  23,736
  25,494
  27,320
  29,218
  31,191
  33,243
Operating income, $m
  201
  311
  447
  611
  805
  1,032
  1,292
  1,587
  1,917
  2,282
  2,791
  3,224
  3,690
  4,189
  4,720
  5,281
  5,873
  6,495
  7,146
  7,827
  8,537
  9,277
  10,047
  10,847
  11,680
  12,544
  13,443
  14,377
  15,348
  16,358
EBITDA, $m
  449
  606
  801
  1,037
  1,317
  1,643
  2,018
  2,442
  2,916
  3,440
  4,014
  4,637
  5,307
  6,025
  6,788
  7,595
  8,446
  9,341
  10,277
  11,256
  12,278
  13,342
  14,449
  15,600
  16,797
  18,041
  19,333
  20,677
  22,073
  23,525
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  9
  18
  29
  43
  59
  79
  102
  128
  158
  191
  228
  269
  312
  360
  410
  464
  520
  580
  643
  709
  778
  850
  924
  1,002
  1,083
  1,167
  1,255
  1,346
  1,440
  1,538
Earnings before tax, $m
  192
  293
  418
  568
  746
  953
  1,191
  1,459
  1,759
  2,090
  2,563
  2,956
  3,378
  3,830
  4,310
  4,818
  5,353
  5,915
  6,503
  7,118
  7,759
  8,427
  9,122
  9,845
  10,596
  11,377
  12,188
  13,031
  13,908
  14,819
Tax expense, $m
  52
  79
  113
  153
  201
  257
  321
  394
  475
  564
  692
  798
  912
  1,034
  1,164
  1,301
  1,445
  1,597
  1,756
  1,922
  2,095
  2,275
  2,463
  2,658
  2,861
  3,072
  3,291
  3,518
  3,755
  4,001
Net income, $m
  140
  214
  305
  414
  544
  696
  869
  1,065
  1,284
  1,526
  1,871
  2,158
  2,466
  2,796
  3,146
  3,517
  3,907
  4,318
  4,747
  5,196
  5,664
  6,152
  6,659
  7,187
  7,735
  8,305
  8,897
  9,513
  10,153
  10,818

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,021
  2,732
  3,610
  4,672
  5,932
  7,402
  9,090
  11,001
  13,137
  15,499
  18,085
  20,890
  23,911
  27,143
  30,580
  34,218
  38,053
  42,082
  46,302
  50,712
  55,313
  60,106
  65,094
  70,282
  75,674
  81,278
  87,101
  93,152
  99,443
  105,984
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,021
  2,732
  3,610
  4,672
  5,932
  7,402
  9,090
  11,001
  13,137
  15,499
  18,085
  20,890
  23,911
  27,143
  30,580
  34,218
  38,053
  42,082
  46,302
  50,712
  55,313
  60,106
  65,094
  70,282
  75,674
  81,278
  87,101
  93,152
  99,443
  105,984
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
Average production assets, $m
  1,367
  1,847
  2,441
  3,159
  4,012
  5,006
  6,147
  7,439
  8,884
  10,481
  12,230
  14,127
  16,170
  18,355
  20,680
  23,140
  25,734
  28,458
  31,312
  34,294
  37,406
  40,647
  44,021
  47,529
  51,175
  54,965
  58,903
  62,995
  67,249
  71,673
Working capital, $m
  -10
  -14
  -19
  -24
  -31
  -38
  -47
  -57
  -68
  -80
  -93
  -108
  -123
  -140
  -157
  -176
  -196
  -217
  -238
  -261
  -285
  -309
  -335
  -362
  -390
  -418
  -448
  -480
  -512
  -546
Total debt, $m
  332
  537
  791
  1,098
  1,462
  1,887
  2,375
  2,927
  3,544
  4,227
  4,974
  5,785
  6,658
  7,592
  8,585
  9,637
  10,745
  11,909
  13,129
  14,404
  15,733
  17,118
  18,560
  20,059
  21,618
  23,237
  24,920
  26,669
  28,487
  30,377
Total liabilities, $m
  584
  789
  1,043
  1,350
  1,714
  2,139
  2,627
  3,179
  3,797
  4,479
  5,226
  6,037
  6,910
  7,844
  8,838
  9,889
  10,997
  12,162
  13,381
  14,656
  15,985
  17,371
  18,812
  20,311
  21,870
  23,489
  25,172
  26,921
  28,739
  30,630
Total equity, $m
  1,437
  1,942
  2,566
  3,322
  4,218
  5,263
  6,463
  7,822
  9,341
  11,020
  12,858
  14,853
  17,001
  19,298
  21,742
  24,329
  27,056
  29,920
  32,920
  36,056
  39,328
  42,735
  46,282
  49,970
  53,804
  57,788
  61,929
  66,231
  70,704
  75,355
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,021
  2,731
  3,609
  4,672
  5,932
  7,402
  9,090
  11,001
  13,138
  15,499
  18,084
  20,890
  23,911
  27,142
  30,580
  34,218
  38,053
  42,082
  46,301
  50,712
  55,313
  60,106
  65,094
  70,281
  75,674
  81,277
  87,101
  93,152
  99,443
  105,985
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.230
  0.280
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711
  0.711

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  140
  214
  305
  414
  544
  696
  869
  1,065
  1,284
  1,526
  1,871
  2,158
  2,466
  2,796
  3,146
  3,517
  3,907
  4,318
  4,747
  5,196
  5,664
  6,152
  6,659
  7,187
  7,735
  8,305
  8,897
  9,513
  10,153
  10,818
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  247
  295
  355
  426
  512
  611
  725
  854
  999
  1,159
  1,223
  1,413
  1,617
  1,836
  2,068
  2,314
  2,573
  2,846
  3,131
  3,429
  3,741
  4,065
  4,402
  4,753
  5,118
  5,496
  5,890
  6,300
  6,725
  7,167
Funds from operations, $m
  388
  509
  659
  841
  1,056
  1,307
  1,594
  1,920
  2,283
  2,685
  3,094
  3,570
  4,083
  4,631
  5,214
  5,831
  6,481
  7,163
  7,878
  8,626
  9,405
  10,217
  11,061
  11,940
  12,853
  13,802
  14,788
  15,812
  16,878
  17,985
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
Cash from operations, $m
  390
  513
  664
  846
  1,063
  1,314
  1,603
  1,929
  2,294
  2,697
  3,107
  3,585
  4,099
  4,648
  5,232
  5,850
  6,501
  7,184
  7,900
  8,648
  9,429
  10,241
  11,087
  11,966
  12,881
  13,831
  14,818
  15,844
  16,910
  18,019
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -99
  -137
  -185
  -244
  -316
  -401
  -501
  -615
  -744
  -888
  -1,048
  -1,223
  -1,413
  -1,617
  -1,836
  -2,068
  -2,314
  -2,573
  -2,846
  -3,131
  -3,429
  -3,741
  -4,065
  -4,402
  -4,753
  -5,118
  -5,496
  -5,890
  -6,300
  -6,725
New CAPEX, $m
  -380
  -480
  -594
  -718
  -852
  -994
  -1,141
  -1,292
  -1,445
  -1,597
  -1,748
  -1,897
  -2,043
  -2,185
  -2,324
  -2,460
  -2,593
  -2,724
  -2,854
  -2,983
  -3,111
  -3,241
  -3,373
  -3,508
  -3,646
  -3,790
  -3,938
  -4,093
  -4,254
  -4,424
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -479
  -617
  -779
  -962
  -1,168
  -1,395
  -1,642
  -1,907
  -2,189
  -2,485
  -2,796
  -3,120
  -3,456
  -3,802
  -4,160
  -4,528
  -4,907
  -5,297
  -5,700
  -6,114
  -6,540
  -6,982
  -7,438
  -7,910
  -8,399
  -8,908
  -9,434
  -9,983
  -10,554
  -11,149
Free cash flow, $m
  -88
  -104
  -114
  -116
  -106
  -81
  -39
  22
  105
  211
  311
  465
  643
  845
  1,072
  1,321
  1,593
  1,886
  2,201
  2,534
  2,888
  3,259
  3,649
  4,056
  4,481
  4,924
  5,383
  5,861
  6,356
  6,871
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  162
  205
  254
  307
  364
  425
  488
  552
  617
  683
  747
  811
  873
  934
  993
  1,051
  1,108
  1,164
  1,220
  1,275
  1,330
  1,385
  1,442
  1,499
  1,558
  1,619
  1,683
  1,749
  1,818
  1,890
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  258
  291
  319
  341
  352
  350
  331
  294
  235
  153
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  420
  496
  573
  648
  716
  775
  819
  846
  852
  836
  747
  811
  873
  934
  993
  1,051
  1,108
  1,164
  1,220
  1,275
  1,330
  1,385
  1,442
  1,499
  1,558
  1,619
  1,683
  1,749
  1,818
  1,890
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  332
  392
  459
  532
  610
  693
  780
  868
  958
  1,047
  1,058
  1,275
  1,516
  1,779
  2,065
  2,373
  2,701
  3,051
  3,420
  3,809
  4,217
  4,644
  5,091
  5,556
  6,040
  6,543
  7,066
  7,610
  8,174
  8,761
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -398
  -505
  -624
  -755
  -896
  -1,045
  -1,200
  -1,359
  -1,519
  -1,679
  -1,838
  -1,995
  -2,148
  -2,298
  -2,444
  -2,587
  -2,727
  -2,864
  -3,000
  -3,136
  -3,271
  -3,408
  -3,547
  -3,688
  -3,834
  -3,984
  -4,140
  -4,303
  -4,473
  -4,651
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  79
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  33
  45
  61
  81
  105
  133
  166
  204
  247
  295
  348
  406
  469
  537
  610
  687
  769
  855
  945
  1,040
  1,139
  1,243
  1,350
  1,462
  1,579
  1,700
  1,826
  1,957
  2,093
  2,234
Cash available for distribution, $m
  13
  -113
  -166
  -223
  -286
  -352
  -420
  -490
  -561
  -632
  -780
  -719
  -632
  -518
  -379
  -214
  -25
  186
  420
  673
  946
  1,237
  1,544
  1,867
  2,206
  2,559
  2,926
  3,307
  3,702
  4,110
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  12
  -103
  -144
  -184
  -222
  -255
  -284
  -307
  -322
  -331
  -371
  -307
  -240
  -174
  -111
  -54
  -6
  34
  65
  86
  98
  103
  101
  95
  86
  75
  63
  51
  40
  31
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.2
  95.0
  93.2
  91.8
  90.7
  89.8
  89.1
  88.7
  88.4
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2
  88.2

Grubhub Inc. provides an online and mobile platform for restaurant pick-up and delivery orders. Its products include Grubhub and Seamless Mobile Applications and Mobile Website, Grubhub and Seamless Websites, Corporate Program, Delivery, Allmenus and MenuPages, Grubhub for Restaurants, and Restaurant Websites. As of December 31, 2016, the Company connected more than 50,000 local restaurants with diners in more than 1,100 cities across the United States. In certain markets, the Company also provides delivery services to restaurants on its platform that do not have their own delivery operations. The Company provides diners on the platform with a personalized platform that helps them search for local restaurants and then place an order from an Internet-connected device. It also provides diners with information about their orders and status. The Company also provides delivery services to restaurants on its platform that do not have their own delivery operations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  GrubHub (GRUB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 191.8
Price to Sales 19.5
Price to Book 9.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 97.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 157.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 36.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 236.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 39.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Total Capital 5.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Equity 5.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 24.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.3%
Operating Margin 17%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 17%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
Net Profit Margin 10.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Effective Tax Rate 40.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 42%
Payout Ratio 0%

GRUB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GRUB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $683 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by GrubHub. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of GrubHub. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GRUB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 38.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GRUB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of GrubHub, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of GrubHub.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GRUB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GRUB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for GrubHub.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for GrubHub. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GRUB stock is equal to 4.8%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GRUB are equal to 144.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in GrubHub operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GRUB is equal to -1.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1118 million for GrubHub - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 86 million for GrubHub is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of GrubHub at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.6 billion.

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