Intrinsic value of Global Ship Lease Cl A - GSL

Previous Close

$1.24

  Intrinsic Value

$1.15

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-8%

Previous close

$1.24

 
Intrinsic value

$1.15

 
Up/down potential

-8%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of GSL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  162
  166
  170
  175
  180
  186
  192
  199
  207
  215
  223
  232
  242
  252
  263
  274
  287
  300
  313
  328
  343
  359
  376
  393
  412
  432
  453
  474
  497
  522
Variable operating expenses, $m
  183
  187
  192
  197
  203
  210
  217
  224
  233
  242
  251
  261
  272
  284
  296
  309
  323
  337
  353
  369
  386
  404
  423
  443
  464
  486
  510
  534
  560
  587
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  183
  187
  192
  197
  203
  210
  217
  224
  233
  242
  251
  261
  272
  284
  296
  309
  323
  337
  353
  369
  386
  404
  423
  443
  464
  486
  510
  534
  560
  587
Operating income, $m
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
EBITDA, $m
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  54
  55
  57
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  137
  143
  150
Interest expense (income), $m
  43
  55
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
Earnings before tax, $m
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -247
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -247

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  673
  688
  706
  726
  748
  772
  798
  827
  858
  890
  926
  963
  1,003
  1,046
  1,091
  1,139
  1,189
  1,243
  1,299
  1,359
  1,422
  1,488
  1,559
  1,632
  1,710
  1,792
  1,878
  1,969
  2,064
  2,164
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  673
  688
  706
  726
  748
  772
  798
  827
  858
  890
  926
  963
  1,003
  1,046
  1,091
  1,139
  1,189
  1,243
  1,299
  1,359
  1,422
  1,488
  1,559
  1,632
  1,710
  1,792
  1,878
  1,969
  2,064
  2,164
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.242
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
Average production assets, $m
  672
  687
  705
  725
  747
  771
  797
  825
  856
  889
  924
  962
  1,001
  1,044
  1,089
  1,137
  1,187
  1,241
  1,297
  1,357
  1,420
  1,486
  1,556
  1,629
  1,707
  1,789
  1,875
  1,965
  2,060
  2,160
Working capital, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
Total debt, $m
  391
  401
  412
  424
  438
  453
  469
  486
  505
  526
  547
  571
  595
  622
  649
  679
  710
  743
  778
  815
  854
  895
  938
  984
  1,032
  1,083
  1,136
  1,192
  1,251
  1,313
Total liabilities, $m
  416
  425
  436
  449
  462
  477
  493
  511
  530
  550
  572
  595
  620
  646
  674
  704
  735
  768
  803
  840
  879
  920
  963
  1,009
  1,057
  1,107
  1,161
  1,217
  1,275
  1,337
Total equity, $m
  257
  263
  270
  277
  286
  295
  305
  316
  328
  340
  354
  368
  383
  399
  417
  435
  454
  475
  496
  519
  543
  569
  595
  624
  653
  684
  717
  752
  788
  827
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  673
  688
  706
  726
  748
  772
  798
  827
  858
  890
  926
  963
  1,003
  1,045
  1,091
  1,139
  1,189
  1,243
  1,299
  1,359
  1,422
  1,489
  1,558
  1,633
  1,710
  1,791
  1,878
  1,969
  2,063
  2,164
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.520
  1.520
  1.530
  1.530
  1.530
  1.530
  1.540
  1.540
  1.540
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.560
  1.560
  1.560
  1.560
  1.570
  1.570
  1.570
  1.570
  1.570
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.590
  1.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -247
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  67
  69
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  197
  206
  216
Funds from operations, $m
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -66
  -67
  -69
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -197
  -206
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -79
  -82
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -172
  -180
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -253
  -265
  -277
  -292
  -306
Free cash flow, $m
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -218
  -228
  -240
  -252
  -264
  -277
  -291
  -305
  -321
  -337
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  81
  84
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  204
  214
  224
  235
  247
  259
  272
  285
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  90
  94
  97
  101
  107
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
  160
  168
  177
  185
  194
  204
  214
  224
  235
  247
  260
  272
  286
  300
  315
  331
  347
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -81
  -84
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -272
  -285
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -79
  -82
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -249
  -262
  -275
Discount rate, %
  7.80
  8.19
  8.60
  9.03
  9.48
  9.95
  10.45
  10.98
  11.52
  12.10
  12.71
  13.34
  14.01
  14.71
  15.44
  16.22
  17.03
  17.88
  18.77
  19.71
  20.70
  21.73
  22.82
  23.96
  25.16
  26.41
  27.73
  29.12
  30.58
  32.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -73
  -70
  -66
  -62
  -57
  -53
  -48
  -44
  -39
  -35
  -31
  -26
  -23
  -19
  -16
  -13
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  68.5
  46.8
  31.9
  21.6
  14.6
  9.9
  6.7
  4.5
  3.0
  2.0
  1.3
  0.9
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Global Ship Lease, Inc. is a holding company and containership charter owner. The Company's activity consists of the ownership and chartering out of containerships. It owns a fleet of containerships with a range of sizes. Its fleet comprises over 20 containerships, with a combined capacity of over 82,310 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) and a weighted average age of over 11.0 years, and a non-weighted average age of over 11.3 years. Its vessels include CMA CGM Matisse, CMA CGM Utrillo, Delmas Keta, Julie Delmas, Kumasi, Marie Delmas, CMA CGM La Tour, CMA CGM Manet, CMA CGM Alcazar, CMA CGM Chateau d'If, CMA CGM Thalassa, CMA CGM Jamaica, CMA CGM Sambhar and CMA CGM America. Approximately 10 vessels are owned by companies incorporated in Cyprus; over four by companies incorporated in Hong Kong, and approximately one is held by another Marshall Islands company. Its subsidiary, Global Ship Lease Services Limited, provides administrative services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Global Ship Lease Cl A (GSL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 0.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 1
Price to Free Cash Flow 1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 118.2%
Total Debt to Equity 127.7%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Return On Total Capital -8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.6%
Return On Equity -17.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.8%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 72.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69%
EBITDA Margin 12.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.6%
Operating Margin -12%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -38.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.4%
Net Profit Margin -38.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio -4.6%

GSL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GSL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $159 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Global Ship Lease Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Global Ship Lease Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GSL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.8%, whose default value for GSL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Global Ship Lease Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Global Ship Lease Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GSL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 112.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GSL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 14.5% for Global Ship Lease Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Global Ship Lease Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GSL stock is equal to 0.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GSL are equal to 414.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Global Ship Lease Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GSL is equal to -2.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $252 million for Global Ship Lease Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 55 million for Global Ship Lease Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Global Ship Lease Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Global Ship Lease Takes Delivery of 2,800 TEU Containership   [Jun-18-18 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Global Ship Lease: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:39AM  Associated Press]
▶ Global Ship Lease Files its Annual Report on Form 20-F   [Mar-29-18 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Global Ship Lease reports 4Q loss   [Mar-05-18 08:57AM  Associated Press]
▶ Global Ship Lease, Inc. Class A to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-02-17 09:15AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Global Ship Lease posts 3Q profit   [09:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Global Ship Lease Launches Secured Notes Offering   [Oct-20-17 03:01AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Global Ship Lease Announces New Time Charter with CMA CGM   [Oct-19-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Global Ship Lease Announces Fleet Update   [08:56AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Global Ship Lease posts 2Q profit   [Jul-31-17 11:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ Global Ship Lease Launches Secured Notes Offering   [Jun-28-17 03:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Global Ship Lease posts 1Q profit   [May-02-17 08:43AM  Associated Press]
▶ Global Ship Lease Files its Annual Report on Form 20-F   [Apr-12-17 04:37PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Global Ship Lease reports 4Q loss   [Mar-07-17 08:46AM  Associated Press]
▶ GLOBAL SHIP LEASE, INC. Financials   [01:04PM  EDGAR Online Financials]
▶ Global Ship Lease Files its Annual Report on Form 20-F   [Apr-18-16 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
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