Intrinsic value of The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company - GT

Previous Close

$14.79

  Intrinsic Value

$28.20

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+91%

Previous close

$14.79

 
Intrinsic value

$28.20

 
Up/down potential

+91%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of GT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  15,785
  16,148
  16,563
  17,028
  17,545
  18,111
  18,728
  19,396
  20,115
  20,887
  21,713
  22,594
  23,532
  24,529
  25,587
  26,709
  27,896
  29,151
  30,477
  31,878
  33,355
  34,914
  36,556
  38,287
  40,109
  42,028
  44,048
  46,174
  48,410
  50,762
Variable operating expenses, $m
  14,473
  14,804
  15,183
  15,608
  16,079
  16,596
  17,159
  17,768
  18,424
  19,129
  19,812
  20,616
  21,472
  22,382
  23,347
  24,370
  25,453
  26,599
  27,809
  29,087
  30,435
  31,857
  33,355
  34,934
  36,598
  38,349
  40,192
  42,131
  44,172
  46,318
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  14,473
  14,804
  15,183
  15,608
  16,079
  16,596
  17,159
  17,768
  18,424
  19,129
  19,812
  20,616
  21,472
  22,382
  23,347
  24,370
  25,453
  26,599
  27,809
  29,087
  30,435
  31,857
  33,355
  34,934
  36,598
  38,349
  40,192
  42,131
  44,172
  46,318
Operating income, $m
  1,312
  1,343
  1,380
  1,420
  1,466
  1,515
  1,569
  1,628
  1,691
  1,758
  1,901
  1,978
  2,060
  2,148
  2,240
  2,339
  2,442
  2,552
  2,668
  2,791
  2,920
  3,057
  3,201
  3,352
  3,512
  3,680
  3,857
  4,043
  4,239
  4,445
EBITDA, $m
  2,139
  2,189
  2,245
  2,308
  2,378
  2,455
  2,538
  2,629
  2,726
  2,831
  2,943
  3,062
  3,189
  3,325
  3,468
  3,620
  3,781
  3,951
  4,131
  4,321
  4,521
  4,732
  4,955
  5,189
  5,436
  5,696
  5,970
  6,258
  6,561
  6,880
Interest expense (income), $m
  351
  323
  337
  352
  370
  391
  413
  438
  465
  494
  525
  558
  594
  633
  673
  717
  763
  812
  863
  918
  975
  1,036
  1,101
  1,168
  1,240
  1,315
  1,394
  1,478
  1,566
  1,658
  1,755
Earnings before tax, $m
  989
  1,007
  1,027
  1,050
  1,075
  1,102
  1,131
  1,163
  1,197
  1,233
  1,343
  1,384
  1,428
  1,474
  1,523
  1,576
  1,631
  1,689
  1,751
  1,816
  1,884
  1,956
  2,032
  2,112
  2,197
  2,286
  2,379
  2,477
  2,581
  2,689
Tax expense, $m
  267
  272
  277
  284
  290
  298
  305
  314
  323
  333
  363
  374
  385
  398
  411
  425
  440
  456
  473
  490
  509
  528
  549
  570
  593
  617
  642
  669
  697
  726
Net income, $m
  722
  735
  750
  767
  785
  805
  826
  849
  874
  900
  980
  1,010
  1,042
  1,076
  1,112
  1,150
  1,191
  1,233
  1,278
  1,325
  1,375
  1,428
  1,484
  1,542
  1,604
  1,668
  1,737
  1,808
  1,884
  1,963

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  17,213
  17,609
  18,062
  18,570
  19,133
  19,750
  20,423
  21,151
  21,936
  22,777
  23,678
  24,639
  25,662
  26,750
  27,903
  29,126
  30,421
  31,790
  33,236
  34,763
  36,374
  38,074
  39,865
  41,752
  43,740
  45,833
  48,035
  50,353
  52,792
  55,357
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  17,213
  17,609
  18,062
  18,570
  19,133
  19,750
  20,423
  21,151
  21,936
  22,777
  23,678
  24,639
  25,662
  26,750
  27,903
  29,126
  30,421
  31,790
  33,236
  34,763
  36,374
  38,074
  39,865
  41,752
  43,740
  45,833
  48,035
  50,353
  52,792
  55,357
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
Average production assets, $m
  7,876
  8,058
  8,265
  8,497
  8,755
  9,037
  9,345
  9,678
  10,037
  10,423
  10,835
  11,274
  11,743
  12,240
  12,768
  13,328
  13,920
  14,546
  15,208
  15,907
  16,644
  17,422
  18,241
  19,105
  20,015
  20,972
  21,980
  23,041
  24,157
  25,330
Working capital, $m
  1,010
  1,033
  1,060
  1,090
  1,123
  1,159
  1,199
  1,241
  1,287
  1,337
  1,390
  1,446
  1,506
  1,570
  1,638
  1,709
  1,785
  1,866
  1,951
  2,040
  2,135
  2,234
  2,340
  2,450
  2,567
  2,690
  2,819
  2,955
  3,098
  3,249
Total debt, $m
  6,011
  6,293
  6,615
  6,977
  7,377
  7,817
  8,296
  8,815
  9,373
  9,973
  10,614
  11,298
  12,026
  12,801
  13,622
  14,493
  15,415
  16,389
  17,419
  18,506
  19,654
  20,863
  22,139
  23,483
  24,898
  26,388
  27,956
  29,607
  31,343
  33,169
Total liabilities, $m
  12,256
  12,538
  12,860
  13,222
  13,622
  14,062
  14,541
  15,060
  15,618
  16,218
  16,859
  17,543
  18,271
  19,046
  19,867
  20,738
  21,660
  22,634
  23,664
  24,751
  25,899
  27,108
  28,384
  29,728
  31,143
  32,633
  34,201
  35,852
  37,588
  39,414
Total equity, $m
  4,957
  5,071
  5,202
  5,348
  5,510
  5,688
  5,882
  6,092
  6,317
  6,560
  6,819
  7,096
  7,391
  7,704
  8,036
  8,388
  8,761
  9,155
  9,572
  10,012
  10,476
  10,965
  11,481
  12,025
  12,597
  13,200
  13,834
  14,502
  15,204
  15,943
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  17,213
  17,609
  18,062
  18,570
  19,132
  19,750
  20,423
  21,152
  21,935
  22,778
  23,678
  24,639
  25,662
  26,750
  27,903
  29,126
  30,421
  31,789
  33,236
  34,763
  36,375
  38,073
  39,865
  41,753
  43,740
  45,833
  48,035
  50,354
  52,792
  55,357
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.210
  1.240
  1.270
  1.300
  1.340
  1.370
  1.410
  1.450
  1.480
  1.520
  1.560
  1.590
  1.630
  1.660
  1.700
  1.730
  1.760
  1.790
  1.820
  1.850
  1.880
  1.900
  1.930
  1.950
  1.980
  2.000
  2.020
  2.040
  2.060
  2.080
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  722
  735
  750
  767
  785
  805
  826
  849
  874
  900
  980
  1,010
  1,042
  1,076
  1,112
  1,150
  1,191
  1,233
  1,278
  1,325
  1,375
  1,428
  1,484
  1,542
  1,604
  1,668
  1,737
  1,808
  1,884
  1,963
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  828
  845
  865
  888
  912
  939
  969
  1,001
  1,036
  1,073
  1,042
  1,084
  1,129
  1,177
  1,228
  1,282
  1,338
  1,399
  1,462
  1,530
  1,600
  1,675
  1,754
  1,837
  1,924
  2,017
  2,113
  2,215
  2,323
  2,436
Funds from operations, $m
  1,550
  1,580
  1,615
  1,654
  1,697
  1,744
  1,795
  1,850
  1,909
  1,973
  2,022
  2,094
  2,171
  2,253
  2,340
  2,432
  2,529
  2,632
  2,740
  2,855
  2,976
  3,103
  3,238
  3,379
  3,528
  3,685
  3,850
  4,024
  4,207
  4,399
Change in working capital, $m
  20
  23
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
  151
Cash from operations, $m
  1,530
  1,557
  1,589
  1,624
  1,664
  1,708
  1,756
  1,807
  1,863
  1,924
  1,969
  2,038
  2,111
  2,189
  2,272
  2,360
  2,453
  2,551
  2,655
  2,765
  2,881
  3,004
  3,132
  3,268
  3,411
  3,562
  3,721
  3,888
  4,063
  4,248
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -742
  -757
  -775
  -795
  -817
  -842
  -869
  -899
  -931
  -965
  -1,002
  -1,042
  -1,084
  -1,129
  -1,177
  -1,228
  -1,282
  -1,338
  -1,399
  -1,462
  -1,530
  -1,600
  -1,675
  -1,754
  -1,837
  -1,924
  -2,017
  -2,113
  -2,215
  -2,323
New CAPEX, $m
  -162
  -181
  -207
  -232
  -258
  -283
  -308
  -333
  -359
  -385
  -412
  -440
  -468
  -498
  -528
  -560
  -592
  -626
  -662
  -699
  -737
  -778
  -820
  -864
  -910
  -958
  -1,008
  -1,061
  -1,116
  -1,174
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -904
  -938
  -982
  -1,027
  -1,075
  -1,125
  -1,177
  -1,232
  -1,290
  -1,350
  -1,414
  -1,482
  -1,552
  -1,627
  -1,705
  -1,788
  -1,874
  -1,964
  -2,061
  -2,161
  -2,267
  -2,378
  -2,495
  -2,618
  -2,747
  -2,882
  -3,025
  -3,174
  -3,331
  -3,497
Free cash flow, $m
  626
  618
  607
  597
  589
  583
  579
  576
  574
  573
  555
  556
  559
  563
  567
  573
  579
  587
  595
  604
  614
  626
  638
  651
  665
  680
  696
  714
  732
  752
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  248
  282
  322
  362
  401
  440
  479
  518
  559
  599
  641
  684
  729
  774
  822
  871
  922
  975
  1,030
  1,087
  1,147
  1,210
  1,275
  1,344
  1,415
  1,490
  1,568
  1,650
  1,736
  1,826
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  248
  282
  322
  362
  401
  440
  479
  518
  559
  599
  641
  684
  729
  774
  822
  871
  922
  975
  1,030
  1,087
  1,147
  1,210
  1,275
  1,344
  1,415
  1,490
  1,568
  1,650
  1,736
  1,826
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  874
  900
  929
  959
  990
  1,023
  1,058
  1,094
  1,132
  1,173
  1,196
  1,241
  1,288
  1,337
  1,389
  1,443
  1,501
  1,561
  1,625
  1,691
  1,762
  1,835
  1,913
  1,995
  2,080
  2,170
  2,265
  2,364
  2,468
  2,578
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -93
  -114
  -130
  -146
  -162
  -178
  -194
  -210
  -226
  -242
  -259
  -277
  -295
  -313
  -332
  -352
  -373
  -394
  -417
  -440
  -464
  -489
  -516
  -544
  -572
  -603
  -634
  -668
  -702
  -739
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  781
  786
  799
  812
  828
  845
  864
  884
  906
  930
  937
  964
  993
  1,024
  1,056
  1,091
  1,128
  1,167
  1,208
  1,252
  1,298
  1,346
  1,397
  1,451
  1,508
  1,567
  1,630
  1,697
  1,766
  1,839
Discount rate, %
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  726
  676
  629
  582
  535
  488
  442
  396
  352
  309
  264
  226
  192
  161
  132
  107
  86
  67
  52
  39
  29
  21
  15
  10
  7
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company is a manufacturer of tires. The Company operates through three segments. The Americas segment develops, manufactures, distributes and sells tires and related products and services in North, Central and South America, and sells tires to various export markets. The Americas segment manufactures and sells tires for automobiles, trucks, buses, earthmoving, mining and industrial equipment, aircraft and for various other applications. The Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) segment develops, manufactures, distributes and sells tires for automobiles, trucks, buses, aircraft, motorcycles, and earthmoving, mining and industrial equipment throughout EMEA under the Goodyear, Dunlop, Debica, Sava and Fulda brands. The Asia Pacific segment develops, manufactures, distributes and sells tires for automobiles, trucks, aircraft, farm, and earthmoving, mining and industrial equipment throughout the Asia Pacific region, and sells tires to various export markets.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 2.9
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 1.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 106.5%
Total Debt to Equity 121.6%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Return On Total Capital 12.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Return On Equity 30%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.1%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 27.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.7%
EBITDA Margin 15.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Operating Margin 10%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Net Profit Margin 8.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Effective Tax Rate -6.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -78.4%
Payout Ratio 6.5%

GT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $15475 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for GT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GT are equal to 49.9%.

Life of production assets of 10.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GT is equal to 6.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4864 million for The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 232.402 million for The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.4 billion.

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