Intrinsic value of Triple-S Management Cl B - GTS

Previous Close

$26.26

  Intrinsic Value

$18.04

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-31%

Previous close

$26.26

 
Intrinsic value

$18.04

 
Up/down potential

-31%

 
Rating

sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GTS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.82
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  0
  3,045
  3,115
  3,195
  3,285
  3,384
  3,493
  3,612
  3,741
  3,880
  4,029
  4,188
  4,358
  4,539
  4,732
  4,936
  5,152
  5,381
  5,623
  5,879
  6,149
  6,434
  6,735
  7,051
  7,385
  7,737
  8,107
  8,497
  8,907
  9,338
  9,792
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,975
  3,043
  3,121
  3,209
  3,306
  3,413
  3,529
  3,655
  3,790
  3,935
  4,088
  4,254
  4,431
  4,619
  4,818
  5,029
  5,253
  5,489
  5,739
  6,002
  6,281
  6,574
  6,883
  7,209
  7,552
  7,914
  8,294
  8,694
  9,115
  9,558
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,966
  2,975
  3,043
  3,121
  3,209
  3,306
  3,413
  3,529
  3,655
  3,790
  3,935
  4,088
  4,254
  4,431
  4,619
  4,818
  5,029
  5,253
  5,489
  5,739
  6,002
  6,281
  6,574
  6,883
  7,209
  7,552
  7,914
  8,294
  8,694
  9,115
  9,558
Operating income, $m
  19
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  94
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  147
  153
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  203
  212
  223
  233
EBITDA, $m
  33
  83
  85
  88
  90
  93
  96
  99
  103
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  130
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  169
  176
  185
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  268
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  8
  14
  21
  29
  38
  48
  59
  71
  84
  98
  113
  129
  146
  165
  184
  204
  226
  249
  274
  300
  327
  356
  386
  418
  452
  487
  524
  564
  605
  648
Earnings before tax, $m
  11
  62
  58
  53
  47
  40
  33
  25
  16
  6
  -4
  -13
  -25
  -38
  -52
  -66
  -82
  -98
  -115
  -134
  -153
  -173
  -195
  -218
  -242
  -267
  -294
  -322
  -351
  -382
  -415
Tax expense, $m
  -6
  17
  16
  14
  13
  11
  9
  7
  4
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  17
  45
  42
  39
  34
  29
  24
  18
  11
  4
  -4
  -13
  -25
  -38
  -52
  -66
  -82
  -98
  -115
  -134
  -153
  -173
  -195
  -218
  -242
  -267
  -294
  -322
  -351
  -382
  -415

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,219
  2,264
  2,316
  2,375
  2,442
  2,516
  2,597
  2,686
  2,782
  2,885
  2,995
  3,114
  3,240
  3,375
  3,518
  3,670
  3,830
  4,001
  4,181
  4,371
  4,572
  4,784
  5,007
  5,243
  5,491
  5,752
  6,027
  6,317
  6,622
  6,943
  7,280
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,219
  2,264
  2,316
  2,375
  2,442
  2,516
  2,597
  2,686
  2,782
  2,885
  2,995
  3,114
  3,240
  3,375
  3,518
  3,670
  3,830
  4,001
  4,181
  4,371
  4,572
  4,784
  5,007
  5,243
  5,491
  5,752
  6,027
  6,317
  6,622
  6,943
  7,280
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
  1.345
Average production assets, $m
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  85
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  185
  193
  203
  212
  223
  233
  245
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  35
  62
  94
  130
  171
  216
  266
  320
  379
  442
  509
  582
  659
  741
  828
  921
  1,019
  1,123
  1,233
  1,350
  1,472
  1,602
  1,738
  1,882
  2,034
  2,194
  2,362
  2,539
  2,725
  2,921
  3,127
Total liabilities, $m
  1,356
  1,383
  1,415
  1,451
  1,492
  1,537
  1,587
  1,641
  1,700
  1,763
  1,830
  1,903
  1,980
  2,062
  2,149
  2,242
  2,340
  2,444
  2,554
  2,671
  2,793
  2,923
  3,059
  3,203
  3,355
  3,515
  3,683
  3,860
  4,046
  4,242
  4,448
Total equity, $m
  863
  881
  901
  924
  950
  979
  1,010
  1,045
  1,082
  1,122
  1,165
  1,211
  1,260
  1,313
  1,368
  1,427
  1,490
  1,556
  1,626
  1,700
  1,778
  1,861
  1,948
  2,039
  2,136
  2,238
  2,345
  2,457
  2,576
  2,701
  2,832
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,219
  2,264
  2,316
  2,375
  2,442
  2,516
  2,597
  2,686
  2,782
  2,885
  2,995
  3,114
  3,240
  3,375
  3,517
  3,669
  3,830
  4,000
  4,180
  4,371
  4,571
  4,784
  5,007
  5,242
  5,491
  5,753
  6,028
  6,317
  6,622
  6,943
  7,280
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.041
  0.070
  0.100
  0.140
  0.180
  0.220
  0.260
  0.310
  0.350
  0.390
  0.440
  0.480
  0.520
  0.560
  0.610
  0.650
  0.680
  0.720
  0.760
  0.790
  0.830
  0.860
  0.890
  0.920
  0.950
  0.980
  1.010
  1.030
  1.060
  1.080
  1.100
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  17
  45
  42
  39
  34
  29
  24
  18
  11
  4
  -4
  -13
  -25
  -38
  -52
  -66
  -82
  -98
  -115
  -134
  -153
  -173
  -195
  -218
  -242
  -267
  -294
  -322
  -351
  -382
  -415
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
Funds from operations, $m
  -19
  59
  56
  52
  48
  44
  39
  33
  27
  21
  12
  2
  -10
  -22
  -35
  -49
  -63
  -79
  -95
  -113
  -131
  -151
  -171
  -193
  -215
  -239
  -265
  -291
  -319
  -349
  -380
Change in working capital, $m
  -25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  6
  59
  56
  52
  48
  44
  39
  33
  27
  21
  12
  2
  -10
  -22
  -35
  -49
  -63
  -79
  -95
  -113
  -131
  -151
  -171
  -193
  -215
  -239
  -265
  -291
  -319
  -349
  -380
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -86
  -14
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -43
  -44
Free cash flow, $m
  -80
  46
  43
  39
  35
  30
  24
  18
  11
  4
  -5
  -17
  -29
  -42
  -56
  -71
  -86
  -103
  -121
  -139
  -159
  -180
  -202
  -225
  -249
  -275
  -302
  -330
  -360
  -392
  -425
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  11
  27
  32
  36
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  63
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  123
  129
  137
  144
  152
  160
  168
  177
  186
  196
  206
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  8
  16
  26
  36
  48
  59
  74
  90
  107
  125
  144
  164
  185
  208
  231
  256
  282
  309
  338
  369
  401
  434
  470
  507
  546
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -15
  27
  32
  36
  41
  45
  58
  70
  85
  99
  116
  131
  151
  172
  194
  218
  242
  268
  295
  324
  354
  385
  419
  453
  490
  529
  569
  611
  656
  703
  752
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -94
  73
  75
  76
  76
  75
  81
  88
  95
  103
  110
  115
  123
  131
  139
  147
  156
  165
  175
  185
  195
  206
  217
  229
  241
  254
  267
  281
  296
  311
  328
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -48
  -59
  -74
  -90
  -107
  -125
  -144
  -164
  -185
  -208
  -231
  -256
  -282
  -309
  -338
  -369
  -401
  -434
  -470
  -507
  -546
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  55
  55
  53
  50
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  62
  56
  48
  40
  32
  22
  12
  1
  -11
  -23
  -36
  -50
  -65
  -81
  -97
  -115
  -134
  -153
  -174
  -196
  -219
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  53
  50
  46
  41
  36
  36
  36
  36
  36
  33
  26
  21
  15
  11
  6
  3
  0
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.0
  96.8
  93.7
  89.7
  84.9
  79.5
  73.4
  66.9
  60.3
  53.7
  47.3
  41.2
  35.5
  30.3
  25.6
  21.5
  17.8
  14.7
  12.0
  9.7
  7.9
  6.3
  5.0
  4.0
  3.1

Triple-S Management Corporation operates as a managed care company. The Company offers a range of managed care and related products in the commercial, Medicaid and Medicare markets. The Company's segments include Managed Care, Life Insurance, and Property and Casualty Insurance. The Managed Care segment is engaged in the sale of managed care products to the Commercial, Medicare and Medicaid market sectors. The Life Insurance segment offers life and accident and health insurance coverage, and annuity products. The premiums for this segment are mainly subscribed through an internal sales force and a network of independent brokers and agents. The insurance products of Property and Casualty Insurance segment includes commercial package, commercial auto, and personal package. The premiums for this segment are originated through a network of independent insurance agents and brokers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Triple-S Management Cl B (GTS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 37.5
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 106.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 637.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -44.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -16.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 4.1%
Total Debt to Equity 4.1%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Return On Total Capital 1.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Return On Equity 2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 1.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Operating Margin 0.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Net Profit Margin 0.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Effective Tax Rate -54.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

GTS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GTS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2985 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Triple-S Management Cl B. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Triple-S Management Cl B. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GTS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GTS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Triple-S Management Cl B, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Triple-S Management Cl B.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GTS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GTS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 22.2% for Triple-S Management Cl B.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Triple-S Management Cl B. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GTS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GTS are equal to 2.5%.

Life of production assets of 7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Triple-S Management Cl B operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GTS is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $863 million for Triple-S Management Cl B - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.445 million for Triple-S Management Cl B is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Triple-S Management Cl B at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Triple-S Management posts 3Q profit   [06:47AM  Associated Press]
▶ Heres why health care premiums could jump 30%   [Oct-31-17 12:40PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Trump to unwind Obamacare with new exec. order   [Oct-12-17 01:18PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ /C O R R E C T I O N -- Triple-S Management Corporation/   [Sep-28-17 05:50PM  PR Newswire]
▶ GOP health care bill is doomed as possible vote looms   [Sep-26-17 12:50PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Triple-S Management posts 2Q profit   [Aug-08-17 09:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ Triple-S Management Appoints New Director   [Jun-13-17 12:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 11 Best Insurance Companies to Invest in 2017   [Jun-05-17 11:53AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Triple-S Management reports 1Q loss   [May-09-17 06:44AM  Associated Press]
▶ Triple-S Management posts 4Q profit   [07:23AM  Associated Press]
▶ 10 Largest Health Insurance Companies In America   [Jan-30-17 11:08AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ 10 Largest Health Insurance Companies In America   [11:08AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of GTS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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