Intrinsic value of Goldfield - GV

Previous Close

$2.89

  Intrinsic Value

$94.82

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$2.89

 
Intrinsic value

$94.82

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of GV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  28.80
  26.42
  24.28
  22.35
  20.62
  19.05
  17.65
  16.38
  15.25
  14.22
  13.30
  12.47
  11.72
  11.05
  10.44
  9.90
  9.41
  8.97
  8.57
  8.22
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.25
  6.12
Revenue, $m
  147
  186
  231
  282
  340
  405
  477
  555
  639
  730
  827
  930
  1,040
  1,154
  1,275
  1,401
  1,533
  1,671
  1,814
  1,963
  2,118
  2,279
  2,446
  2,620
  2,801
  2,989
  3,184
  3,387
  3,599
  3,819
Variable operating expenses, $m
  46
  59
  73
  89
  107
  128
  150
  175
  202
  230
  261
  293
  328
  364
  402
  442
  483
  527
  572
  619
  668
  718
  771
  826
  883
  942
  1,004
  1,068
  1,135
  1,204
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  69
  71
  73
  74
  76
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  86
  88
  90
  92
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  105
  107
  110
  112
  115
  117
  120
  122
  125
  128
  131
Total operating expenses, $m
  115
  130
  146
  163
  183
  205
  229
  256
  285
  315
  347
  381
  418
  456
  496
  538
  581
  628
  675
  724
  775
  828
  883
  941
  1,000
  1,062
  1,126
  1,193
  1,263
  1,335
Operating income, $m
  31
  56
  85
  119
  157
  200
  247
  299
  355
  415
  480
  549
  622
  698
  779
  863
  951
  1,043
  1,139
  1,239
  1,343
  1,451
  1,563
  1,679
  1,801
  1,927
  2,058
  2,194
  2,336
  2,484
EBITDA, $m
  40
  67
  100
  136
  178
  225
  277
  333
  394
  460
  531
  606
  686
  769
  857
  949
  1,046
  1,146
  1,251
  1,360
  1,473
  1,591
  1,713
  1,841
  1,973
  2,111
  2,254
  2,403
  2,558
  2,720
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  5
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
Earnings before tax, $m
  30
  54
  83
  116
  153
  195
  242
  292
  347
  406
  470
  537
  608
  683
  762
  845
  931
  1,021
  1,115
  1,213
  1,314
  1,420
  1,530
  1,644
  1,763
  1,886
  2,014
  2,148
  2,287
  2,432
Tax expense, $m
  8
  15
  22
  31
  41
  53
  65
  79
  94
  110
  127
  145
  164
  185
  206
  228
  251
  276
  301
  327
  355
  383
  413
  444
  476
  509
  544
  580
  618
  657
Net income, $m
  22
  40
  61
  85
  112
  143
  176
  213
  254
  297
  343
  392
  444
  499
  556
  617
  680
  746
  814
  885
  959
  1,037
  1,117
  1,200
  1,287
  1,377
  1,471
  1,568
  1,670
  1,775

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  109
  138
  171
  209
  253
  301
  354
  412
  475
  542
  614
  691
  772
  857
  947
  1,040
  1,138
  1,240
  1,347
  1,457
  1,572
  1,692
  1,816
  1,945
  2,079
  2,219
  2,364
  2,515
  2,672
  2,835
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  109
  138
  171
  209
  253
  301
  354
  412
  475
  542
  614
  691
  772
  857
  947
  1,040
  1,138
  1,240
  1,347
  1,457
  1,572
  1,692
  1,816
  1,945
  2,079
  2,219
  2,364
  2,515
  2,672
  2,835
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.349
  1.348
  1.351
  1.349
  1.344
  1.346
  1.347
  1.347
  1.345
  1.347
  1.347
  1.346
  1.347
  1.347
  1.346
  1.347
  1.347
  1.348
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
Average production assets, $m
  45
  57
  71
  87
  105
  125
  147
  171
  197
  225
  255
  287
  320
  356
  393
  432
  472
  515
  559
  605
  652
  702
  753
  807
  863
  920
  981
  1,043
  1,108
  1,176
Working capital, $m
  30
  38
  48
  58
  70
  83
  98
  114
  132
  150
  170
  192
  214
  238
  263
  289
  316
  344
  374
  404
  436
  469
  504
  540
  577
  616
  656
  698
  741
  787
Total debt, $m
  31
  42
  54
  68
  84
  101
  121
  142
  165
  190
  216
  244
  274
  305
  338
  372
  408
  445
  484
  525
  567
  610
  656
  703
  752
  803
  856
  912
  969
  1,029
Total liabilities, $m
  40
  50
  63
  77
  92
  110
  130
  151
  174
  198
  225
  253
  282
  314
  346
  381
  417
  454
  493
  533
  575
  619
  665
  712
  761
  812
  865
  920
  978
  1,038
Total equity, $m
  69
  87
  109
  133
  160
  191
  224
  261
  301
  344
  389
  438
  489
  543
  600
  660
  722
  786
  854
  924
  997
  1,073
  1,151
  1,233
  1,318
  1,407
  1,499
  1,594
  1,694
  1,798
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  109
  137
  172
  210
  252
  301
  354
  412
  475
  542
  614
  691
  771
  857
  946
  1,041
  1,139
  1,240
  1,347
  1,457
  1,572
  1,692
  1,816
  1,945
  2,079
  2,219
  2,364
  2,514
  2,672
  2,836
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.450
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  22
  40
  61
  85
  112
  143
  176
  213
  254
  297
  343
  392
  444
  499
  556
  617
  680
  746
  814
  885
  959
  1,037
  1,117
  1,200
  1,287
  1,377
  1,471
  1,568
  1,670
  1,775
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  12
  14
  17
  21
  25
  29
  34
  39
  45
  51
  57
  64
  71
  79
  86
  94
  103
  112
  121
  130
  140
  151
  161
  173
  184
  196
  209
  222
  235
Funds from operations, $m
  31
  51
  75
  102
  133
  168
  206
  248
  293
  342
  394
  449
  508
  570
  635
  703
  774
  848
  926
  1,006
  1,090
  1,177
  1,267
  1,361
  1,459
  1,561
  1,667
  1,777
  1,891
  2,011
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
Cash from operations, $m
  24
  43
  66
  92
  121
  154
  191
  232
  276
  323
  374
  428
  486
  546
  610
  677
  747
  820
  896
  976
  1,058
  1,144
  1,233
  1,326
  1,422
  1,522
  1,626
  1,735
  1,848
  1,965
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -34
  -39
  -45
  -51
  -57
  -64
  -71
  -79
  -86
  -94
  -103
  -112
  -121
  -130
  -140
  -151
  -161
  -173
  -184
  -196
  -209
  -222
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -17
  -21
  -25
  -30
  -35
  -41
  -47
  -53
  -60
  -67
  -75
  -83
  -91
  -99
  -108
  -118
  -127
  -136
  -147
  -158
  -169
  -180
  -192
  -205
  -217
  -231
  -244
  -259
  -274
  -290
Free cash flow, $m
  7
  22
  40
  61
  86
  113
  144
  178
  215
  256
  299
  345
  395
  447
  502
  560
  620
  683
  749
  818
  889
  964
  1,041
  1,121
  1,205
  1,292
  1,382
  1,476
  1,574
  1,676
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  16
  33
  53
  75
  102
  131
  164
  199
  238
  280
  325
  374
  424
  478
  535
  594
  656
  721
  788
  858
  931
  1,008
  1,087
  1,169
  1,254
  1,343
  1,435
  1,531
  1,631
  1,736
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  3
  14
  31
  51
  74
  100
  130
  163
  199
  238
  280
  325
  373
  424
  478
  535
  594
  656
  721
  788
  859
  932
  1,008
  1,087
  1,169
  1,254
  1,343
  1,436
  1,532
  1,632
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  3
  13
  27
  42
  58
  73
  88
  102
  114
  125
  133
  139
  142
  142
  140
  136
  129
  121
  111
  100
  89
  77
  66
  55
  45
  37
  29
  22
  17
  12
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
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The Goldfield Corporation (Goldfield) is engaged in the construction of electrical infrastructure for the utility industry and industrial customers. The Company serves customers in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic regions of the United States, including Texas. It operates through electrical construction segment. The Company's electrical construction business includes the construction of transmission lines, concrete foundations, distribution systems, fiber optic splicing, substations and other electrical services. Through the Company's subsidiaries, Power Corporation of America (PCA), Southeast Power Corporation (Southeast Power), and C and C Power Line, Inc. (C&C), the Company is engaged in the construction and maintenance of electric utility facilities for electric utilities and industrial customers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Goldfield (GV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 5.7
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -16.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 33.3%
Total Debt to Equity 45.8%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 15.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Total Capital 19.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Return On Equity 31.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18%
EBITDA Margin 20.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Operating Margin 16.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Net Profit Margin 10%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 38.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

GV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $113.953519 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Goldfield. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Goldfield. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 28.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Goldfield, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Goldfield.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 31.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $68 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Goldfield.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Goldfield. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GV are equal to 30.8%.

Life of production assets of 4.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Goldfield operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GV is equal to 20.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $56.548313 million for Goldfield - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.451 million for Goldfield is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Goldfield at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Goldfield Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-08-18 08:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Presidents Comments at Goldfields Annual Meeting   [May-24-18 04:43PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Goldfield Announces 2018 First-Quarter Results   [May-08-18 04:18PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Goldfield Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Mar-15-18 07:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : December 21, 2017   [Dec-21-17 11:29AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : December 7, 2017   [Dec-07-17 01:56PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : November 8, 2017   [Nov-08-17 06:13PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Goldfield Announces Third-Quarter 2017 Results   [Nov-07-17 04:59PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : October 20, 2017   [Oct-20-17 10:14AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : October 9, 2017   [Oct-09-17 11:35AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Goldfield Announces Storm Restoration Efforts in Florida   [Sep-14-17 06:49AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Goldfield Announces Second-Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-09-17 04:31PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Goldfield Announces Executive Promotions   [Jun-19-17 03:27PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : June 14, 2017   [Jun-14-17 01:36PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : June 2, 2017   [Jun-02-17 02:11PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Presidents Comments at Goldfields Annual Meeting   [May-25-17 04:48PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Goldfield Announces First-Quarter 2017 Results   [May-04-17 04:33PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : May 1, 2017   [May-01-17 03:57PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : April 19, 2017   [Apr-19-17 02:22PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 04:43PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : March 27, 2017   [Mar-27-17 03:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : January 24, 2017   [Jan-24-17 12:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : December 8, 2016   [Dec-08-16 02:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : November 28, 2016   [Nov-28-16 12:10PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Meet Argan, Mighty Mite Of The Power Industry, Up 49% Since Breaking Out   [Oct-06-16 04:06PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : August 12, 2016   [Aug-12-16 02:25PM  Capital Cube]

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