Intrinsic value of Granite Construction - GVA

Previous Close

$42.60

  Intrinsic Value

$16.89

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-60%

Previous close

$42.60

 
Intrinsic value

$16.89

 
Up/down potential

-60%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of GVA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
Revenue, $m
  3,163
  3,344
  3,533
  3,730
  3,936
  4,152
  4,377
  4,612
  4,859
  5,117
  5,387
  5,670
  5,966
  6,277
  6,602
  6,943
  7,301
  7,675
  8,068
  8,480
  8,913
  9,366
  9,842
  10,341
  10,865
  11,414
  11,991
  12,596
  13,231
  13,897
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,046
  3,220
  3,401
  3,591
  3,789
  3,996
  4,212
  4,439
  4,676
  4,924
  5,178
  5,450
  5,735
  6,033
  6,346
  6,674
  7,017
  7,377
  7,755
  8,151
  8,567
  9,003
  9,460
  9,940
  10,443
  10,971
  11,525
  12,107
  12,717
  13,358
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,046
  3,220
  3,401
  3,591
  3,789
  3,996
  4,212
  4,439
  4,676
  4,924
  5,178
  5,450
  5,735
  6,033
  6,346
  6,674
  7,017
  7,377
  7,755
  8,151
  8,567
  9,003
  9,460
  9,940
  10,443
  10,971
  11,525
  12,107
  12,717
  13,358
Operating income, $m
  117
  124
  132
  139
  147
  156
  164
  174
  183
  193
  209
  220
  231
  244
  256
  269
  283
  298
  313
  329
  346
  363
  382
  401
  422
  443
  465
  489
  513
  539
EBITDA, $m
  189
  200
  211
  223
  235
  248
  262
  276
  291
  306
  322
  339
  357
  375
  395
  415
  437
  459
  483
  507
  533
  560
  589
  619
  650
  683
  717
  753
  791
  831
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  43
  48
  52
  57
  62
  67
  73
  78
  84
  91
  97
  104
  111
  119
  127
  135
  144
  153
  163
  173
  184
Earnings before tax, $m
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  161
  168
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  214
  223
  232
  242
  252
  263
  274
  286
  299
  312
  326
  340
  356
Tax expense, $m
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
Net income, $m
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  118
  122
  127
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  177
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  260

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,981
  2,094
  2,212
  2,336
  2,465
  2,600
  2,741
  2,888
  3,043
  3,204
  3,373
  3,550
  3,736
  3,930
  4,134
  4,348
  4,571
  4,806
  5,052
  5,310
  5,581
  5,865
  6,163
  6,475
  6,803
  7,147
  7,508
  7,887
  8,285
  8,702
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,981
  2,094
  2,212
  2,336
  2,465
  2,600
  2,741
  2,888
  3,043
  3,204
  3,373
  3,550
  3,736
  3,930
  4,134
  4,348
  4,571
  4,806
  5,052
  5,310
  5,581
  5,865
  6,163
  6,475
  6,803
  7,147
  7,508
  7,887
  8,285
  8,702
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
Average production assets, $m
  459
  485
  512
  541
  571
  602
  635
  669
  705
  742
  781
  822
  865
  910
  957
  1,007
  1,059
  1,113
  1,170
  1,230
  1,292
  1,358
  1,427
  1,499
  1,575
  1,655
  1,739
  1,826
  1,918
  2,015
Working capital, $m
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  223
  234
  246
  259
  272
  285
  300
  315
  331
  347
Total debt, $m
  278
  334
  393
  454
  518
  584
  654
  727
  804
  884
  967
  1,055
  1,147
  1,243
  1,344
  1,450
  1,560
  1,677
  1,798
  1,926
  2,060
  2,201
  2,348
  2,503
  2,665
  2,835
  3,014
  3,202
  3,399
  3,605
Total liabilities, $m
  980
  1,037
  1,095
  1,156
  1,220
  1,287
  1,357
  1,430
  1,506
  1,586
  1,670
  1,757
  1,849
  1,946
  2,046
  2,152
  2,263
  2,379
  2,501
  2,629
  2,763
  2,903
  3,051
  3,205
  3,368
  3,538
  3,717
  3,904
  4,101
  4,308
Total equity, $m
  1,000
  1,057
  1,117
  1,180
  1,245
  1,313
  1,384
  1,459
  1,537
  1,618
  1,704
  1,793
  1,887
  1,985
  2,088
  2,196
  2,309
  2,427
  2,551
  2,682
  2,818
  2,962
  3,112
  3,270
  3,436
  3,609
  3,792
  3,983
  4,184
  4,395
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,980
  2,094
  2,212
  2,336
  2,465
  2,600
  2,741
  2,889
  3,043
  3,204
  3,374
  3,550
  3,736
  3,931
  4,134
  4,348
  4,572
  4,806
  5,052
  5,311
  5,581
  5,865
  6,163
  6,475
  6,804
  7,147
  7,509
  7,887
  8,285
  8,703
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.280
  0.320
  0.350
  0.380
  0.420
  0.450
  0.470
  0.500
  0.520
  0.550
  0.570
  0.590
  0.610
  0.630
  0.640
  0.660
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  118
  122
  127
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  177
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  260
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
  107
  113
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
  170
  178
  187
  197
  207
  217
  228
  240
  252
  265
  278
  292
Funds from operations, $m
  149
  155
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  213
  222
  231
  242
  253
  264
  277
  290
  303
  317
  332
  348
  364
  381
  399
  418
  437
  458
  480
  503
  527
  552
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
Cash from operations, $m
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  180
  189
  197
  206
  216
  224
  235
  245
  257
  269
  281
  294
  308
  322
  337
  353
  370
  387
  405
  424
  444
  465
  487
  511
  535
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -240
  -252
  -265
  -278
New CAPEX, $m
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -198
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -241
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -293
  -308
  -324
  -340
  -357
  -375
Free cash flow, $m
  57
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  78
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  160
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  147
  155
  162
  170
  179
  188
  197
  207
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  147
  155
  162
  170
  179
  188
  197
  207
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  110
  114
  119
  123
  128
  133
  139
  144
  150
  156
  161
  168
  175
  183
  190
  199
  207
  216
  226
  236
  246
  257
  269
  281
  293
  307
  321
  335
  351
  367
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -211
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  72
  75
  76
  79
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  53
  52
  51
  50
  49
  47
  46
  44
  41
  39
  36
  34
  31
  28
  26
  23
  20
  18
  16
  13
  11
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Granite Construction Incorporated is a heavy civil contractor and construction materials producer in the United States. The Company operates through three segments: Construction, Large Project Construction and Construction Materials. The Company operates across the nation, serving both public and private sector clients. Within the public sector, it concentrates on heavy-civil infrastructure projects, including the construction of streets, roads, highways, mass transit facilities, airport infrastructure, bridges, trenchless and underground utilities, power-related facilities, water and wastewater facilities, utilities, tunnels, dams and other infrastructure-related projects. Within the private sector, the Company offers site preparation and infrastructure services for residential development, energy development, commercial and industrial sites, and other facilities, as well as provides construction management professional services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Granite Construction (GVA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29.6
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 23.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -93.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 106.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 15.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 33
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 25.8%
Total Debt to Equity 27.5%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Total Capital 5.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Equity 6.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 12%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
EBITDA Margin 6.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Operating Margin 3.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Net Profit Margin 2.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Effective Tax Rate 31.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.6%
Payout Ratio 36.8%

GVA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GVA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2989.713 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Granite Construction. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Granite Construction. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GVA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GVA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Granite Construction, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Granite Construction.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GVA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GVA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Granite Construction.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Granite Construction. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GVA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GVA are equal to 14.5%.

Life of production assets of 6.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Granite Construction operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GVA is equal to 2.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $945.108 million for Granite Construction - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 45.695 million for Granite Construction is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Granite Construction at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Granite Announces New Reporting Segments   [Oct-03-18 04:43PM  Business Wire]
▶ Granite Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Sep-12-18 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Arnold Van Den Berg Exits 1 Position in 2nd Quarter   [Aug-24-18 05:36PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Granite Construction: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:13AM  Associated Press]
▶ Granite Reports Second Quarter 2018 Results   [06:55AM  Business Wire]
▶ Granite Appoints Jigisha Desai as Chief Financial Officer   [Jun-25-18 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Granite Declares Quarterly Dividend   [04:13PM  Business Wire]
▶ Another shareholder speaks against Layne Christensen merger   [Jun-04-18 09:06AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Granite Construction: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Granite Reports First Quarter 2018 Results   [06:55AM  Business Wire]
▶ Granite Awarded $27 Million Highway Project in Alaska   [Apr-26-18 05:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Granite Acquires LiquiForce   [Apr-03-18 05:47PM  Business Wire]
▶ Layne Christensen responds to activist investor criticism of $565M deal   [Mar-27-18 08:48AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Granite Construction beats Street 4Q forecasts   [07:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ Granite Receives Great Place to Work┬« Certification   [Jan-22-18 05:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Granite Construction Clears Key Benchmark, Hitting 80-Plus RS Rating   [Dec-19-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Putting Your Money into Infrastructure   [Dec-08-17 01:40PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Granite Construction Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-07-17 06:16PM  Business Wire]
▶ Granite Construction Clears Key Benchmark, Hitting 80-Plus RS Rating   [Nov-03-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]

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