Intrinsic value of Granite Construction - GVA

Previous Close

$67.64

  Intrinsic Value

$74.11

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+10%

Previous close

$67.64

 
Intrinsic value

$74.11

 
Up/down potential

+10%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GVA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.07
  19.00
  17.60
  16.34
  15.21
  14.19
  13.27
  12.44
  11.70
  11.03
  10.42
  9.88
  9.39
  8.95
  8.56
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
Revenue, $m
  2,515
  2,993
  3,520
  4,095
  4,717
  5,387
  6,101
  6,860
  7,662
  8,507
  9,394
  10,322
  11,292
  12,303
  13,356
  14,452
  15,591
  16,775
  18,005
  19,284
  20,613
  21,994
  23,431
  24,926
  26,481
  28,101
  29,788
  31,547
  33,381
  35,295
  37,293
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,851
  3,352
  3,899
  4,491
  5,127
  5,807
  6,528
  7,291
  8,095
  8,938
  9,815
  10,737
  11,699
  12,700
  13,741
  14,825
  15,950
  17,120
  18,336
  19,600
  20,913
  22,279
  23,701
  25,180
  26,720
  28,324
  29,997
  31,741
  33,560
  35,460
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,422
  2,851
  3,352
  3,899
  4,491
  5,127
  5,807
  6,528
  7,291
  8,095
  8,938
  9,815
  10,737
  11,699
  12,700
  13,741
  14,825
  15,950
  17,120
  18,336
  19,600
  20,913
  22,279
  23,701
  25,180
  26,720
  28,324
  29,997
  31,741
  33,560
  35,460
Operating income, $m
  92
  142
  168
  196
  226
  259
  294
  332
  371
  413
  456
  507
  555
  605
  656
  710
  766
  824
  885
  948
  1,013
  1,081
  1,152
  1,225
  1,301
  1,381
  1,464
  1,550
  1,641
  1,735
  1,833
EBITDA, $m
  156
  214
  252
  293
  337
  385
  436
  491
  548
  608
  672
  738
  807
  880
  955
  1,033
  1,115
  1,200
  1,288
  1,379
  1,474
  1,573
  1,676
  1,782
  1,894
  2,009
  2,130
  2,256
  2,387
  2,524
  2,667
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  12
  20
  29
  39
  50
  61
  74
  87
  100
  115
  130
  146
  163
  180
  198
  217
  237
  257
  278
  300
  323
  347
  372
  397
  424
  452
  481
  511
  543
  576
Earnings before tax, $m
  96
  130
  147
  167
  187
  210
  233
  258
  285
  312
  341
  377
  409
  442
  476
  512
  549
  588
  628
  669
  713
  758
  805
  853
  904
  957
  1,012
  1,070
  1,129
  1,192
  1,257
Tax expense, $m
  30
  35
  40
  45
  51
  57
  63
  70
  77
  84
  92
  102
  110
  119
  129
  138
  148
  159
  170
  181
  192
  205
  217
  230
  244
  258
  273
  289
  305
  322
  339
Net income, $m
  57
  95
  108
  122
  137
  153
  170
  188
  208
  228
  249
  275
  298
  323
  348
  374
  401
  429
  458
  489
  520
  553
  587
  623
  660
  699
  739
  781
  824
  870
  918

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  501
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,733
  1,466
  1,724
  2,006
  2,311
  2,639
  2,989
  3,361
  3,754
  4,168
  4,603
  5,058
  5,533
  6,028
  6,544
  7,081
  7,639
  8,219
  8,822
  9,448
  10,099
  10,776
  11,480
  12,212
  12,975
  13,768
  14,595
  15,457
  16,355
  17,293
  18,272
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,232
  1,466
  1,724
  2,006
  2,311
  2,639
  2,989
  3,361
  3,754
  4,168
  4,603
  5,058
  5,533
  6,028
  6,544
  7,081
  7,639
  8,219
  8,822
  9,448
  10,099
  10,776
  11,480
  12,212
  12,975
  13,768
  14,595
  15,457
  16,355
  17,293
  18,272
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.041
  2.042
  2.042
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
Average production assets, $m
  406
  482
  567
  659
  759
  867
  982
  1,104
  1,234
  1,370
  1,512
  1,662
  1,818
  1,981
  2,150
  2,327
  2,510
  2,701
  2,899
  3,105
  3,319
  3,541
  3,772
  4,013
  4,263
  4,524
  4,796
  5,079
  5,374
  5,683
  6,004
Working capital, $m
  559
  87
  102
  119
  137
  156
  177
  199
  222
  247
  272
  299
  327
  357
  387
  419
  452
  486
  522
  559
  598
  638
  679
  723
  768
  815
  864
  915
  968
  1,024
  1,081
Total debt, $m
  244
  387
  561
  751
  957
  1,178
  1,415
  1,666
  1,931
  2,211
  2,504
  2,811
  3,132
  3,466
  3,814
  4,176
  4,553
  4,945
  5,352
  5,775
  6,214
  6,671
  7,146
  7,640
  8,155
  8,691
  9,249
  9,830
  10,437
  11,070
  11,730
Total liabilities, $m
  847
  990
  1,164
  1,354
  1,560
  1,781
  2,018
  2,269
  2,534
  2,814
  3,107
  3,414
  3,735
  4,069
  4,417
  4,779
  5,156
  5,548
  5,955
  6,378
  6,817
  7,274
  7,749
  8,243
  8,758
  9,294
  9,852
  10,433
  11,040
  11,673
  12,333
Total equity, $m
  886
  477
  560
  652
  751
  858
  972
  1,092
  1,220
  1,355
  1,496
  1,644
  1,798
  1,959
  2,127
  2,301
  2,483
  2,671
  2,867
  3,071
  3,282
  3,502
  3,731
  3,969
  4,217
  4,475
  4,743
  5,023
  5,316
  5,620
  5,938
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,733
  1,467
  1,724
  2,006
  2,311
  2,639
  2,990
  3,361
  3,754
  4,169
  4,603
  5,058
  5,533
  6,028
  6,544
  7,080
  7,639
  8,219
  8,822
  9,449
  10,099
  10,776
  11,480
  12,212
  12,975
  13,769
  14,595
  15,456
  16,356
  17,293
  18,271
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.275
  0.810
  1.000
  1.150
  1.270
  1.370
  1.460
  1.520
  1.580
  1.630
  1.670
  1.710
  1.740
  1.770
  1.790
  1.810
  1.830
  1.850
  1.870
  1.880
  1.890
  1.900
  1.920
  1.920
  1.930
  1.940
  1.950
  1.960
  1.960
  1.970
  1.980
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.313
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325
  0.325

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  57
  95
  108
  122
  137
  153
  170
  188
  208
  228
  249
  275
  298
  323
  348
  374
  401
  429
  458
  489
  520
  553
  587
  623
  660
  699
  739
  781
  824
  870
  918
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  64
  72
  84
  97
  111
  126
  142
  159
  177
  196
  215
  231
  253
  275
  299
  323
  349
  375
  403
  431
  461
  492
  524
  557
  592
  628
  666
  705
  746
  789
  834
Funds from operations, $m
  19
  167
  192
  219
  248
  279
  312
  347
  384
  424
  465
  506
  551
  598
  646
  697
  749
  804
  861
  920
  981
  1,045
  1,111
  1,180
  1,252
  1,327
  1,405
  1,486
  1,571
  1,659
  1,752
Change in working capital, $m
  -54
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
Cash from operations, $m
  73
  153
  176
  202
  230
  259
  291
  325
  361
  399
  439
  479
  523
  568
  616
  665
  716
  770
  825
  883
  943
  1,005
  1,070
  1,137
  1,207
  1,280
  1,356
  1,435
  1,518
  1,604
  1,694
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -56
  -67
  -79
  -92
  -105
  -120
  -136
  -153
  -171
  -190
  -210
  -231
  -253
  -275
  -299
  -323
  -349
  -375
  -403
  -431
  -461
  -492
  -524
  -557
  -592
  -628
  -666
  -705
  -746
  -789
New CAPEX, $m
  -91
  -76
  -85
  -93
  -100
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -222
  -231
  -241
  -250
  -261
  -272
  -283
  -295
  -308
  -322
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -96
  -132
  -152
  -172
  -192
  -213
  -235
  -258
  -282
  -307
  -333
  -359
  -387
  -416
  -445
  -475
  -506
  -540
  -573
  -609
  -645
  -683
  -723
  -765
  -807
  -853
  -900
  -949
  -1,000
  -1,054
  -1,111
Free cash flow, $m
  -23
  21
  25
  31
  38
  46
  56
  67
  79
  92
  106
  120
  136
  153
  171
  190
  210
  231
  252
  274
  298
  322
  347
  372
  399
  427
  456
  486
  517
  549
  583
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -15
  158
  174
  190
  206
  221
  236
  251
  265
  279
  293
  307
  321
  334
  348
  362
  377
  392
  407
  423
  439
  457
  475
  494
  514
  536
  558
  582
  607
  633
  661
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -19
  158
  174
  190
  206
  221
  236
  251
  265
  279
  293
  307
  321
  334
  348
  362
  377
  392
  407
  423
  439
  457
  475
  494
  514
  536
  558
  582
  607
  633
  661
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -43
  178
  199
  221
  244
  268
  292
  318
  344
  371
  399
  427
  457
  487
  519
  552
  587
  622
  659
  697
  737
  779
  822
  867
  914
  963
  1,014
  1,068
  1,124
  1,182
  1,244
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -47
  -77
  -84
  -92
  -99
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -220
  -229
  -238
  -248
  -258
  -269
  -280
  -292
  -305
  -318
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  486
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  588
  115
  129
  145
  161
  178
  197
  216
  237
  258
  279
  302
  326
  352
  378
  405
  434
  463
  494
  525
  559
  593
  629
  666
  705
  745
  788
  832
  877
  925
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  564
  105
  113
  119
  125
  129
  133
  135
  136
  135
  132
  129
  124
  118
  111
  103
  94
  85
  76
  67
  58
  49
  41
  34
  27
  22
  17
  13
  10
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Granite Construction Incorporated is a heavy civil contractor and construction materials producer in the United States. The Company operates through three segments: Construction, Large Project Construction and Construction Materials. The Company operates across the nation, serving both public and private sector clients. Within the public sector, it concentrates on heavy-civil infrastructure projects, including the construction of streets, roads, highways, mass transit facilities, airport infrastructure, bridges, trenchless and underground utilities, power-related facilities, water and wastewater facilities, utilities, tunnels, dams and other infrastructure-related projects. Within the private sector, the Company offers site preparation and infrastructure services for residential development, energy development, commercial and industrial sites, and other facilities, as well as provides construction management professional services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Granite Construction (GVA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 47
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 36.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -148.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 106.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 15.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 33
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 25.8%
Total Debt to Equity 27.5%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Total Capital 5.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Equity 6.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 12%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
EBITDA Margin 6.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Operating Margin 3.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Net Profit Margin 2.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Effective Tax Rate 31.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.6%
Payout Ratio 36.8%

GVA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GVA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2515 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Granite Construction. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Granite Construction. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GVA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 19% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GVA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Granite Construction, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Granite Construction.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GVA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GVA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.2% for Granite Construction.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Granite Construction. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GVA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GVA are equal to 16.1%.

Life of production assets of 7.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Granite Construction operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GVA is equal to 2.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $886 million for Granite Construction - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 40.832 million for Granite Construction is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Granite Construction at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Granite Construction Clears Key Benchmark, Hitting 80-Plus RS Rating   [Dec-19-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Putting Your Money into Infrastructure   [Dec-08-17 01:40PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Granite Construction Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-07-17 06:16PM  Business Wire]
▶ Granite Construction Clears Key Benchmark, Hitting 80-Plus RS Rating   [Nov-03-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Granite Construction beats Street 3Q forecasts   [07:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Granite Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [06:55AM  Business Wire]
▶ Granite Construction Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Sep-13-17 05:33PM  Business Wire]
▶ Stocks With Rising Relative Strength: Granite Construction   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Stocks With Rising Relative Strength: Granite Construction   [Sep-06-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Nasdaq, Small Caps Lead; The Stock Group Harvey Is Lifting   [Aug-31-17 12:09PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ This Is Why Trump's Speech in Arizona Was Over the Top   [Aug-23-17 03:30PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Granite Construction misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-01-17 10:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Granite Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [06:55AM  Business Wire]
▶ Granite Publishes 2016 Sustainability Update   [Jul-13-17 05:32PM  Business Wire]
▶ [$$] Granite Construction to See Infrastructure Bump Up   [Jun-01-17 12:01PM  Barrons.com]
Financial statements of GVA
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