Intrinsic value of Granite Construction - GVA

Previous Close

$54.23

  Intrinsic Value

$47.64

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-12%

Previous close

$54.23

 
Intrinsic value

$47.64

 
Up/down potential

-12%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of GVA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  18.90
  17.51
  16.26
  15.13
  14.12
  13.21
  12.39
  11.65
  10.98
  10.39
  9.85
  9.36
  8.93
  8.53
  8.18
  7.86
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
Revenue, $m
  3,555
  4,178
  4,857
  5,592
  6,381
  7,224
  8,119
  9,065
  10,060
  11,105
  12,199
  13,341
  14,532
  15,772
  17,062
  18,403
  19,797
  21,246
  22,752
  24,316
  25,943
  27,635
  29,395
  31,227
  33,134
  35,122
  37,193
  39,353
  41,607
  43,960
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,423
  4,021
  4,674
  5,380
  6,139
  6,949
  7,809
  8,718
  9,675
  10,680
  11,725
  12,823
  13,968
  15,160
  16,400
  17,689
  19,029
  20,422
  21,869
  23,373
  24,936
  26,562
  28,254
  30,015
  31,848
  33,759
  35,750
  37,826
  39,993
  42,254
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,423
  4,021
  4,674
  5,380
  6,139
  6,949
  7,809
  8,718
  9,675
  10,680
  11,725
  12,823
  13,968
  15,160
  16,400
  17,689
  19,029
  20,422
  21,869
  23,373
  24,936
  26,562
  28,254
  30,015
  31,848
  33,759
  35,750
  37,826
  39,993
  42,254
Operating income, $m
  133
  157
  183
  212
  242
  275
  310
  346
  385
  426
  473
  518
  564
  612
  662
  714
  768
  824
  883
  944
  1,007
  1,072
  1,141
  1,212
  1,286
  1,363
  1,443
  1,527
  1,615
  1,706
EBITDA, $m
  193
  226
  263
  303
  346
  392
  440
  491
  545
  602
  661
  723
  788
  855
  925
  998
  1,073
  1,152
  1,233
  1,318
  1,406
  1,498
  1,593
  1,693
  1,796
  1,904
  2,016
  2,133
  2,255
  2,383
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  12
  22
  32
  43
  56
  69
  83
  98
  114
  130
  148
  166
  185
  205
  226
  248
  270
  293
  318
  343
  369
  396
  425
  454
  485
  517
  550
  585
  621
  658
Earnings before tax, $m
  120
  135
  151
  168
  187
  206
  227
  248
  271
  295
  325
  351
  379
  407
  436
  467
  498
  531
  565
  601
  638
  676
  716
  758
  801
  846
  893
  943
  994
  1,047
Tax expense, $m
  33
  36
  41
  45
  50
  56
  61
  67
  73
  80
  88
  95
  102
  110
  118
  126
  135
  143
  153
  162
  172
  183
  193
  205
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  283
Net income, $m
  88
  99
  110
  123
  136
  150
  165
  181
  198
  215
  238
  257
  276
  297
  318
  341
  364
  388
  413
  439
  466
  494
  523
  553
  585
  618
  652
  688
  726
  765

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,226
  2,616
  3,041
  3,501
  3,996
  4,524
  5,084
  5,676
  6,300
  6,954
  7,639
  8,354
  9,099
  9,876
  10,684
  11,524
  12,397
  13,304
  14,246
  15,226
  16,245
  17,304
  18,406
  19,553
  20,748
  21,992
  23,289
  24,642
  26,053
  27,527
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,226
  2,616
  3,041
  3,501
  3,996
  4,524
  5,084
  5,676
  6,300
  6,954
  7,639
  8,354
  9,099
  9,876
  10,684
  11,524
  12,397
  13,304
  14,246
  15,226
  16,245
  17,304
  18,406
  19,553
  20,748
  21,992
  23,289
  24,642
  26,053
  27,527
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
  1.597
Average production assets, $m
  547
  643
  748
  861
  983
  1,113
  1,250
  1,396
  1,549
  1,710
  1,879
  2,054
  2,238
  2,429
  2,628
  2,834
  3,049
  3,272
  3,504
  3,745
  3,995
  4,256
  4,527
  4,809
  5,103
  5,409
  5,728
  6,060
  6,408
  6,770
Working capital, $m
  -210
  -246
  -287
  -330
  -377
  -426
  -479
  -535
  -594
  -655
  -720
  -787
  -857
  -931
  -1,007
  -1,086
  -1,168
  -1,254
  -1,342
  -1,435
  -1,531
  -1,630
  -1,734
  -1,842
  -1,955
  -2,072
  -2,194
  -2,322
  -2,455
  -2,594
Total debt, $m
  399
  592
  803
  1,031
  1,275
  1,537
  1,814
  2,107
  2,416
  2,740
  3,079
  3,433
  3,802
  4,186
  4,586
  5,002
  5,434
  5,883
  6,350
  6,835
  7,339
  7,863
  8,409
  8,976
  9,568
  10,184
  10,826
  11,495
  12,194
  12,923
Total liabilities, $m
  1,102
  1,295
  1,505
  1,733
  1,978
  2,239
  2,517
  2,810
  3,118
  3,442
  3,781
  4,135
  4,504
  4,889
  5,288
  5,704
  6,136
  6,585
  7,052
  7,537
  8,041
  8,566
  9,111
  9,679
  10,270
  10,886
  11,528
  12,198
  12,896
  13,626
Total equity, $m
  1,124
  1,321
  1,536
  1,768
  2,018
  2,284
  2,567
  2,866
  3,181
  3,512
  3,857
  4,219
  4,595
  4,987
  5,395
  5,819
  6,260
  6,718
  7,194
  7,689
  8,204
  8,739
  9,295
  9,874
  10,478
  11,106
  11,761
  12,444
  13,157
  13,901
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,226
  2,616
  3,041
  3,501
  3,996
  4,523
  5,084
  5,676
  6,299
  6,954
  7,638
  8,354
  9,099
  9,876
  10,683
  11,523
  12,396
  13,303
  14,246
  15,226
  16,245
  17,305
  18,406
  19,553
  20,748
  21,992
  23,289
  24,642
  26,053
  27,527
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.360
  0.450
  0.520
  0.580
  0.630
  0.670
  0.710
  0.740
  0.760
  0.780
  0.800
  0.810
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.890
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.910
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  88
  99
  110
  123
  136
  150
  165
  181
  198
  215
  238
  257
  276
  297
  318
  341
  364
  388
  413
  439
  466
  494
  523
  553
  585
  618
  652
  688
  726
  765
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  60
  70
  80
  92
  104
  117
  130
  145
  160
  176
  188
  205
  224
  243
  263
  283
  305
  327
  350
  374
  400
  426
  453
  481
  510
  541
  573
  606
  641
  677
Funds from operations, $m
  148
  168
  190
  214
  240
  267
  296
  326
  358
  392
  425
  462
  500
  540
  581
  624
  669
  715
  763
  813
  865
  919
  975
  1,034
  1,095
  1,159
  1,225
  1,294
  1,366
  1,442
Change in working capital, $m
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -139
Cash from operations, $m
  181
  205
  231
  258
  286
  317
  349
  382
  417
  453
  490
  529
  570
  613
  657
  703
  751
  800
  852
  905
  961
  1,019
  1,079
  1,142
  1,208
  1,276
  1,347
  1,422
  1,499
  1,580
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -46
  -55
  -64
  -75
  -86
  -98
  -111
  -125
  -140
  -155
  -171
  -188
  -205
  -224
  -243
  -263
  -283
  -305
  -327
  -350
  -374
  -400
  -426
  -453
  -481
  -510
  -541
  -573
  -606
  -641
New CAPEX, $m
  -87
  -96
  -105
  -113
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -199
  -207
  -215
  -223
  -232
  -241
  -251
  -261
  -271
  -282
  -294
  -306
  -319
  -333
  -347
  -362
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -133
  -151
  -169
  -188
  -208
  -228
  -249
  -271
  -293
  -316
  -339
  -364
  -388
  -415
  -442
  -470
  -498
  -528
  -559
  -591
  -625
  -661
  -697
  -735
  -775
  -816
  -860
  -906
  -953
  -1,003
Free cash flow, $m
  49
  55
  62
  70
  79
  89
  100
  111
  124
  138
  151
  166
  182
  198
  216
  234
  253
  272
  293
  314
  336
  359
  383
  407
  433
  460
  487
  516
  546
  577
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  175
  193
  211
  228
  245
  261
  277
  293
  309
  324
  339
  354
  369
  384
  400
  416
  432
  449
  467
  485
  504
  524
  546
  568
  591
  616
  642
  670
  699
  729
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  91
  98
  104
  110
  113
  116
  117
  118
  117
  115
  108
  105
  100
  95
  90
  84
  77
  70
  63
  56
  49
  41
  34
  26
  18
  11
  3
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  266
  291
  315
  338
  358
  377
  394
  411
  426
  439
  447
  459
  469
  479
  490
  500
  509
  519
  530
  541
  553
  565
  580
  594
  609
  627
  645
  670
  699
  729
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  315
  346
  377
  407
  437
  466
  495
  522
  550
  576
  598
  624
  651
  678
  705
  733
  762
  792
  823
  855
  889
  925
  962
  1,001
  1,043
  1,086
  1,132
  1,186
  1,245
  1,307
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -179
  -197
  -215
  -232
  -250
  -267
  -283
  -299
  -315
  -330
  -346
  -361
  -377
  -392
  -408
  -424
  -441
  -458
  -476
  -495
  -514
  -535
  -557
  -579
  -603
  -628
  -655
  -683
  -713
  -744
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  32
  36
  41
  45
  50
  56
  61
  67
  73
  79
  85
  92
  99
  106
  114
  122
  130
  138
  147
  156
  166
  176
  186
  197
  208
Cash available for distribution, $m
  136
  149
  162
  175
  187
  200
  212
  223
  235
  246
  252
  263
  274
  286
  297
  309
  321
  334
  347
  360
  375
  390
  405
  422
  439
  458
  477
  503
  532
  563
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  130
  136
  141
  144
  145
  145
  143
  140
  135
  129
  120
  112
  104
  96
  87
  79
  70
  61
  53
  46
  39
  32
  27
  21
  17
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  96.0
  92.4
  89.4
  86.7
  84.3
  82.3
  80.4
  78.9
  77.5
  76.3
  75.3
  74.4
  73.6
  73.0
  72.4
  71.9
  71.5
  71.2
  70.9
  70.6
  70.4
  70.3
  70.2
  70.1
  70.0
  70.0
  70.0
  70.0
  70.0
  70.0

Granite Construction Incorporated is a heavy civil contractor and construction materials producer in the United States. The Company operates through three segments: Construction, Large Project Construction and Construction Materials. The Company operates across the nation, serving both public and private sector clients. Within the public sector, it concentrates on heavy-civil infrastructure projects, including the construction of streets, roads, highways, mass transit facilities, airport infrastructure, bridges, trenchless and underground utilities, power-related facilities, water and wastewater facilities, utilities, tunnels, dams and other infrastructure-related projects. Within the private sector, the Company offers site preparation and infrastructure services for residential development, energy development, commercial and industrial sites, and other facilities, as well as provides construction management professional services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Granite Construction (GVA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 37.7
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 29.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -119.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 106.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 15.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 33
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 25.8%
Total Debt to Equity 27.5%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Total Capital 5.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Equity 6.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 12%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
EBITDA Margin 6.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Operating Margin 3.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Net Profit Margin 2.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Effective Tax Rate 31.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.6%
Payout Ratio 36.8%

GVA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GVA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2990 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Granite Construction. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Granite Construction. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GVA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GVA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Granite Construction, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Granite Construction.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GVA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GVA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Granite Construction.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Granite Construction. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GVA stock is equal to 0.5%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GVA are equal to 15.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Granite Construction operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GVA is equal to -5.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $945 million for Granite Construction - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 40 million for Granite Construction is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Granite Construction at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Granite Appoints Jigisha Desai as Chief Financial Officer   [Jun-25-18 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Granite Declares Quarterly Dividend   [04:13PM  Business Wire]
▶ Another shareholder speaks against Layne Christensen merger   [Jun-04-18 09:06AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Granite Construction: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Granite Reports First Quarter 2018 Results   [06:55AM  Business Wire]
▶ Granite Awarded $27 Million Highway Project in Alaska   [Apr-26-18 05:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Granite Acquires LiquiForce   [Apr-03-18 05:47PM  Business Wire]
▶ Layne Christensen responds to activist investor criticism of $565M deal   [Mar-27-18 08:48AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Granite Construction beats Street 4Q forecasts   [07:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ Granite Receives Great Place to Work┬« Certification   [Jan-22-18 05:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Granite Construction Clears Key Benchmark, Hitting 80-Plus RS Rating   [Dec-19-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Putting Your Money into Infrastructure   [Dec-08-17 01:40PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Granite Construction Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-07-17 06:16PM  Business Wire]
▶ Granite Construction Clears Key Benchmark, Hitting 80-Plus RS Rating   [Nov-03-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Granite Construction beats Street 3Q forecasts   [07:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Granite Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [06:55AM  Business Wire]
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