Intrinsic value of Guidewire Software - GWRE

Previous Close

$95.26

  Intrinsic Value

$13.98

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-85%

Previous close

$95.26

 
Intrinsic value

$13.98

 
Up/down potential

-85%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of GWRE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.20
  19.58
  18.12
  16.81
  15.63
  14.57
  13.61
  12.75
  11.97
  11.28
  10.65
  10.08
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
Revenue, $m
  623
  745
  880
  1,028
  1,189
  1,362
  1,547
  1,744
  1,953
  2,173
  2,405
  2,647
  2,901
  3,165
  3,441
  3,727
  4,026
  4,336
  4,658
  4,993
  5,341
  5,702
  6,078
  6,470
  6,877
  7,301
  7,742
  8,202
  8,682
  9,182
Variable operating expenses, $m
  548
  651
  765
  890
  1,026
  1,173
  1,329
  1,496
  1,673
  1,859
  2,033
  2,238
  2,453
  2,676
  2,909
  3,152
  3,404
  3,666
  3,938
  4,222
  4,516
  4,822
  5,140
  5,470
  5,815
  6,173
  6,546
  6,935
  7,341
  7,764
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  58
  59
  61
  62
  63
Total operating expenses, $m
  582
  685
  800
  926
  1,063
  1,211
  1,367
  1,535
  1,713
  1,900
  2,075
  2,281
  2,497
  2,721
  2,955
  3,199
  3,452
  3,715
  3,988
  4,273
  4,568
  4,875
  5,194
  5,526
  5,872
  6,231
  6,605
  6,996
  7,403
  7,827
Operating income, $m
  41
  59
  79
  101
  125
  151
  179
  209
  240
  273
  329
  366
  404
  444
  486
  529
  574
  621
  669
  720
  773
  827
  884
  944
  1,005
  1,069
  1,136
  1,206
  1,279
  1,355
EBITDA, $m
  80
  101
  125
  151
  180
  210
  243
  278
  316
  355
  396
  439
  485
  532
  581
  632
  685
  741
  798
  858
  921
  985
  1,053
  1,123
  1,196
  1,272
  1,351
  1,433
  1,519
  1,609
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  2
  4
  7
  10
  13
  16
  20
  24
  28
  32
  37
  42
  46
  52
  57
  63
  68
  74
  81
  87
  94
  101
  108
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  159
Earnings before tax, $m
  41
  57
  75
  94
  115
  138
  163
  189
  216
  245
  297
  329
  363
  398
  434
  472
  511
  552
  595
  639
  685
  733
  783
  835
  889
  945
  1,004
  1,065
  1,129
  1,196
Tax expense, $m
  11
  15
  20
  25
  31
  37
  44
  51
  58
  66
  80
  89
  98
  107
  117
  127
  138
  149
  161
  173
  185
  198
  211
  226
  240
  255
  271
  288
  305
  323
Net income, $m
  30
  42
  55
  69
  84
  101
  119
  138
  158
  179
  217
  240
  265
  290
  317
  345
  373
  403
  434
  467
  500
  535
  572
  610
  649
  690
  733
  778
  824
  873

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  811
  970
  1,146
  1,338
  1,548
  1,773
  2,014
  2,271
  2,543
  2,830
  3,131
  3,447
  3,777
  4,121
  4,480
  4,853
  5,242
  5,645
  6,065
  6,501
  6,954
  7,425
  7,915
  8,424
  8,954
  9,506
  10,081
  10,680
  11,304
  11,956
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  811
  970
  1,146
  1,338
  1,548
  1,773
  2,014
  2,271
  2,543
  2,830
  3,131
  3,447
  3,777
  4,121
  4,480
  4,853
  5,242
  5,645
  6,065
  6,501
  6,954
  7,425
  7,915
  8,424
  8,954
  9,506
  10,081
  10,680
  11,304
  11,956
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
Average production assets, $m
  173
  206
  244
  285
  329
  377
  428
  483
  541
  602
  666
  733
  803
  877
  953
  1,032
  1,115
  1,201
  1,290
  1,383
  1,479
  1,580
  1,684
  1,792
  1,905
  2,022
  2,145
  2,272
  2,405
  2,543
Working capital, $m
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -51
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -82
  -89
  -97
  -105
  -113
  -121
  -130
  -139
  -148
  -158
  -168
  -179
  -190
  -201
  -213
  -226
  -239
Total debt, $m
  39
  83
  131
  185
  243
  305
  372
  443
  518
  598
  681
  769
  860
  956
  1,055
  1,158
  1,266
  1,378
  1,494
  1,615
  1,740
  1,871
  2,006
  2,148
  2,294
  2,447
  2,606
  2,772
  2,945
  3,126
Total liabilities, $m
  225
  269
  317
  371
  429
  491
  558
  629
  704
  784
  867
  955
  1,046
  1,142
  1,241
  1,344
  1,452
  1,564
  1,680
  1,801
  1,926
  2,057
  2,192
  2,333
  2,480
  2,633
  2,792
  2,958
  3,131
  3,312
Total equity, $m
  586
  701
  828
  968
  1,119
  1,282
  1,456
  1,642
  1,839
  2,046
  2,264
  2,492
  2,731
  2,980
  3,239
  3,509
  3,790
  4,082
  4,385
  4,700
  5,028
  5,368
  5,722
  6,091
  6,474
  6,873
  7,288
  7,721
  8,173
  8,644
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  811
  970
  1,145
  1,339
  1,548
  1,773
  2,014
  2,271
  2,543
  2,830
  3,131
  3,447
  3,777
  4,122
  4,480
  4,853
  5,242
  5,646
  6,065
  6,501
  6,954
  7,425
  7,914
  8,424
  8,954
  9,506
  10,080
  10,679
  11,304
  11,956
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.070
  0.120
  0.160
  0.190
  0.220
  0.240
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  30
  42
  55
  69
  84
  101
  119
  138
  158
  179
  217
  240
  265
  290
  317
  345
  373
  403
  434
  467
  500
  535
  572
  610
  649
  690
  733
  778
  824
  873
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  64
  70
  75
  81
  67
  73
  80
  88
  95
  103
  112
  120
  129
  138
  148
  158
  168
  179
  190
  202
  214
  227
  240
  254
Funds from operations, $m
  69
  84
  100
  119
  139
  160
  183
  207
  233
  261
  284
  314
  345
  378
  412
  448
  485
  523
  563
  605
  648
  693
  740
  789
  840
  892
  947
  1,005
  1,065
  1,127
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
Cash from operations, $m
  71
  87
  104
  122
  143
  164
  188
  212
  239
  266
  290
  320
  352
  385
  419
  455
  493
  531
  572
  614
  657
  703
  750
  799
  850
  903
  959
  1,017
  1,077
  1,140
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -38
  -43
  -48
  -54
  -60
  -67
  -73
  -80
  -88
  -95
  -103
  -112
  -120
  -129
  -138
  -148
  -158
  -168
  -179
  -190
  -202
  -214
  -227
  -240
New CAPEX, $m
  -30
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -139
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -44
  -51
  -58
  -65
  -72
  -81
  -89
  -98
  -106
  -115
  -124
  -134
  -143
  -153
  -164
  -174
  -186
  -198
  -209
  -222
  -234
  -248
  -262
  -276
  -292
  -307
  -324
  -341
  -360
  -379
Free cash flow, $m
  27
  36
  46
  57
  70
  84
  99
  115
  133
  151
  165
  186
  208
  231
  255
  280
  307
  334
  362
  392
  423
  455
  488
  522
  558
  596
  634
  675
  717
  761
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  39
  44
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  130
  136
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  73
  73
  72
  70
  67
  62
  56
  48
  39
  28
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  112
  117
  121
  123
  125
  124
  123
  119
  114
  107
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  130
  136
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  138
  153
  167
  181
  195
  208
  221
  234
  247
  259
  250
  274
  300
  327
  355
  384
  414
  446
  479
  513
  548
  585
  623
  663
  705
  748
  794
  841
  890
  942
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -103
  -115
  -127
  -139
  -151
  -163
  -174
  -186
  -197
  -207
  -218
  -228
  -239
  -249
  -259
  -270
  -281
  -292
  -303
  -315
  -328
  -341
  -354
  -368
  -383
  -399
  -416
  -433
  -452
  -471
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  410
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  63
  76
  91
  107
  125
  145
  166
  189
  213
  238
  265
  293
  323
  354
  386
  420
  455
  491
  529
  568
  609
  652
  696
  742
  789
  839
  891
  945
  1,001
  1,059
Cash available for distribution, $m
  445
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  32
  45
  61
  78
  95
  114
  134
  154
  175
  198
  221
  245
  269
  295
  322
  349
  378
  408
  439
  471
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  427
  35
  35
  34
  34
  33
  32
  30
  29
  27
  15
  19
  23
  26
  28
  29
  29
  28
  27
  25
  23
  20
  18
  15
  13
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.1
  96.6
  95.4
  94.3
  93.5
  92.9
  92.4
  92.0
  91.7
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5
  91.5

Guidewire Software, Inc. is a provider of software products for property and casualty (P&C) insurers. The Company's software serves as a technology platform for P&C insurance carriers. The Company's InsurancePlatform consists of three elements: core transaction processing, data management and analytics, and digital engagement. The Company sells its products to a range of global P&C insurance carriers ranging from global insurers to national carriers to regional carriers. The Company's core transaction processing includes Guidewire InsuranceSuite, Guidewire PolicyCenter, Guidewire ClaimCenter, Guidewire BillingCenter and InsuranceSuite Add-on Modules. The Company's data management and analytics includes Guidewire DataHub, Guidewire InfoCenter, Guidewire Live and Guidewire Predictive Analytics. The Company's digital engagement includes Guidewire Digital Portals.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Guidewire Software (GWRE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 340.3
Price to Sales 13.9
Price to Book 8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 52.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 55
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 21.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Total Capital 2.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Equity 2.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 62.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 62.8%
EBITDA Margin 10.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Operating Margin 5.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Net Profit Margin 4.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Effective Tax Rate 36.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

GWRE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GWRE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $514 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Guidewire Software. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Guidewire Software. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GWRE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GWRE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Guidewire Software, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Guidewire Software.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GWRE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $33 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GWRE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Guidewire Software.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Guidewire Software. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GWRE stock is equal to 12.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GWRE are equal to 27.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Guidewire Software operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GWRE is equal to -2.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $893 million for Guidewire Software - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 74 million for Guidewire Software is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Guidewire Software at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Saga Deploys Guidewire Core, Data, and Digital Products   [Jun-26-18 05:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ 3 More Fintech Stocks to Put On Your Wish List   [Jun-19-18 03:01PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Guidewire InsurancePlatform Aligned to Insurer Success   [Jun-08-18 05:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Wired News - Microsoft Acquires GitHub   [07:20AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Guidewire Software: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ Guidewire Software to Present at J.P. Morgan Conference   [May-09-18 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ What's working: Market volatility   [08:17AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Guidewire Wins Two XCelent Awards for Policy Administration   [Apr-03-18 08:55AM  Business Wire]
▶ Guidewire Software reports 2Q loss   [Mar-06-18 04:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ These 3 Techs Break Out As Stocks Extend Gains   [Mar-05-18 01:33PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ 6 New Stocks in the Wide Moat Focus Index   [Jan-10-18 06:00AM  Morningstar]
▶ Guidewire Software Announces CFO Transition   [Jan-09-18 05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Technology: Most Bellwethers Are Overvalued   [Dec-29-17 06:00AM  Morningstar]
▶ [$$] JPMorgan: Five Stocks It's Selling and One Buy   [Dec-19-17 03:07PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Stocks With Rising Relative Strength: Guidewire Software   [Dec-12-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ 5 Stocks With More Room to Run   [Dec-06-17 06:00AM  Morningstar]
▶ Guidewire Software reports 1Q loss   [Nov-29-17 04:31PM  Associated Press]
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