Intrinsic value of Hawaiian Holdings - HA

Previous Close

$34.23

  Intrinsic Value

$139.98

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+309%

Previous close

$34.23

 
Intrinsic value

$139.98

 
Up/down potential

+309%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of HA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.77
  5.70
  5.63
  5.56
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  2,879
  3,070
  3,268
  3,474
  3,689
  3,912
  4,145
  4,388
  4,642
  4,906
  5,182
  5,471
  5,772
  6,087
  6,417
  6,761
  7,122
  7,499
  7,894
  8,308
  8,742
  9,196
  9,672
  10,171
  10,695
  11,243
  11,818
  12,422
  13,055
  13,718
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,075
  2,211
  2,353
  2,501
  2,655
  2,815
  2,982
  3,156
  3,338
  3,527
  3,713
  3,920
  4,136
  4,361
  4,597
  4,844
  5,103
  5,373
  5,656
  5,953
  6,263
  6,589
  6,930
  7,288
  7,663
  8,056
  8,468
  8,900
  9,353
  9,829
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  280
  286
  292
  299
  305
  312
  319
  326
  333
  341
  348
  356
  364
  372
  380
  388
  397
  405
  414
  423
  433
  442
  452
  462
  472
  482
  493
  504
  515
  526
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,355
  2,497
  2,645
  2,800
  2,960
  3,127
  3,301
  3,482
  3,671
  3,868
  4,061
  4,276
  4,500
  4,733
  4,977
  5,232
  5,500
  5,778
  6,070
  6,376
  6,696
  7,031
  7,382
  7,750
  8,135
  8,538
  8,961
  9,404
  9,868
  10,355
Operating income, $m
  524
  572
  622
  674
  728
  785
  844
  906
  971
  1,038
  1,121
  1,195
  1,273
  1,354
  1,439
  1,529
  1,623
  1,721
  1,824
  1,932
  2,046
  2,165
  2,290
  2,422
  2,560
  2,705
  2,858
  3,018
  3,186
  3,363
EBITDA, $m
  654
  710
  768
  828
  891
  957
  1,026
  1,098
  1,173
  1,251
  1,333
  1,419
  1,509
  1,603
  1,702
  1,805
  1,914
  2,028
  2,147
  2,272
  2,403
  2,541
  2,686
  2,838
  2,998
  3,165
  3,341
  3,526
  3,720
  3,924
Interest expense (income), $m
  30
  31
  39
  47
  55
  64
  73
  82
  91
  101
  112
  123
  134
  146
  159
  172
  185
  200
  215
  230
  247
  264
  282
  301
  320
  341
  363
  385
  409
  434
  460
Earnings before tax, $m
  493
  533
  575
  619
  665
  712
  762
  814
  869
  926
  998
  1,061
  1,127
  1,195
  1,268
  1,343
  1,423
  1,506
  1,594
  1,686
  1,782
  1,883
  1,990
  2,102
  2,219
  2,343
  2,472
  2,609
  2,752
  2,903
Tax expense, $m
  133
  144
  155
  167
  179
  192
  206
  220
  235
  250
  270
  286
  304
  323
  342
  363
  384
  407
  430
  455
  481
  509
  537
  567
  599
  633
  668
  704
  743
  784
Net income, $m
  360
  389
  420
  452
  485
  520
  556
  595
  634
  676
  729
  775
  822
  873
  925
  981
  1,039
  1,100
  1,163
  1,230
  1,301
  1,375
  1,453
  1,534
  1,620
  1,710
  1,805
  1,904
  2,009
  2,119

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,069
  3,272
  3,484
  3,704
  3,933
  4,171
  4,419
  4,678
  4,949
  5,231
  5,525
  5,832
  6,154
  6,489
  6,841
  7,208
  7,593
  7,995
  8,416
  8,858
  9,320
  9,804
  10,312
  10,844
  11,402
  11,986
  12,600
  13,243
  13,917
  14,625
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,069
  3,272
  3,484
  3,704
  3,933
  4,171
  4,419
  4,678
  4,949
  5,231
  5,525
  5,832
  6,154
  6,489
  6,841
  7,208
  7,593
  7,995
  8,416
  8,858
  9,320
  9,804
  10,312
  10,844
  11,402
  11,986
  12,600
  13,243
  13,917
  14,625
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
Average production assets, $m
  1,932
  2,060
  2,193
  2,331
  2,475
  2,625
  2,782
  2,945
  3,115
  3,292
  3,477
  3,671
  3,873
  4,084
  4,306
  4,537
  4,779
  5,032
  5,297
  5,575
  5,866
  6,171
  6,490
  6,825
  7,176
  7,544
  7,930
  8,335
  8,760
  9,205
Working capital, $m
  -665
  -709
  -755
  -802
  -852
  -904
  -958
  -1,014
  -1,072
  -1,133
  -1,197
  -1,264
  -1,333
  -1,406
  -1,482
  -1,562
  -1,645
  -1,732
  -1,824
  -1,919
  -2,019
  -2,124
  -2,234
  -2,350
  -2,470
  -2,597
  -2,730
  -2,869
  -3,016
  -3,169
Total debt, $m
  709
  852
  1,001
  1,157
  1,318
  1,487
  1,662
  1,845
  2,036
  2,235
  2,443
  2,660
  2,886
  3,124
  3,371
  3,631
  3,902
  4,186
  4,484
  4,795
  5,122
  5,464
  5,822
  6,198
  6,591
  7,004
  7,437
  7,891
  8,368
  8,867
Total liabilities, $m
  2,167
  2,310
  2,460
  2,615
  2,776
  2,945
  3,120
  3,303
  3,494
  3,693
  3,901
  4,118
  4,344
  4,582
  4,830
  5,089
  5,360
  5,644
  5,942
  6,253
  6,580
  6,922
  7,280
  7,656
  8,049
  8,462
  8,895
  9,349
  9,826
  10,325
Total equity, $m
  902
  962
  1,024
  1,089
  1,156
  1,226
  1,299
  1,375
  1,455
  1,538
  1,624
  1,715
  1,809
  1,908
  2,011
  2,119
  2,232
  2,351
  2,474
  2,604
  2,740
  2,882
  3,032
  3,188
  3,352
  3,524
  3,704
  3,893
  4,092
  4,300
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,069
  3,272
  3,484
  3,704
  3,932
  4,171
  4,419
  4,678
  4,949
  5,231
  5,525
  5,833
  6,153
  6,490
  6,841
  7,208
  7,592
  7,995
  8,416
  8,857
  9,320
  9,804
  10,312
  10,844
  11,401
  11,986
  12,599
  13,242
  13,918
  14,625
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.790
  0.890
  0.980
  1.060
  1.140
  1.210
  1.280
  1.340
  1.400
  1.450
  1.500
  1.550
  1.600
  1.640
  1.680
  1.710
  1.750
  1.780
  1.810
  1.840
  1.870
  1.900
  1.920
  1.940
  1.970
  1.990
  2.010
  2.030
  2.050
  2.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  360
  389
  420
  452
  485
  520
  556
  595
  634
  676
  729
  775
  822
  873
  925
  981
  1,039
  1,100
  1,163
  1,230
  1,301
  1,375
  1,453
  1,534
  1,620
  1,710
  1,805
  1,904
  2,009
  2,119
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  130
  138
  146
  154
  163
  172
  182
  192
  202
  213
  212
  224
  236
  249
  263
  277
  291
  307
  323
  340
  358
  376
  396
  416
  438
  460
  484
  508
  534
  561
Funds from operations, $m
  490
  527
  566
  606
  648
  692
  738
  786
  837
  889
  941
  998
  1,059
  1,122
  1,188
  1,257
  1,330
  1,406
  1,486
  1,570
  1,659
  1,751
  1,848
  1,950
  2,058
  2,170
  2,288
  2,413
  2,543
  2,680
Change in working capital, $m
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
Cash from operations, $m
  532
  571
  611
  654
  698
  744
  792
  842
  895
  950
  1,005
  1,065
  1,128
  1,195
  1,264
  1,337
  1,413
  1,494
  1,578
  1,666
  1,759
  1,856
  1,958
  2,066
  2,178
  2,297
  2,421
  2,552
  2,689
  2,834
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -110
  -118
  -126
  -134
  -142
  -151
  -160
  -170
  -180
  -190
  -201
  -212
  -224
  -236
  -249
  -263
  -277
  -291
  -307
  -323
  -340
  -358
  -376
  -396
  -416
  -438
  -460
  -484
  -508
  -534
New CAPEX, $m
  -122
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -202
  -211
  -221
  -231
  -242
  -253
  -265
  -278
  -291
  -305
  -319
  -335
  -351
  -368
  -386
  -405
  -425
  -445
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -232
  -246
  -259
  -272
  -286
  -301
  -316
  -333
  -350
  -367
  -386
  -406
  -426
  -447
  -470
  -494
  -519
  -544
  -572
  -601
  -631
  -663
  -695
  -731
  -767
  -806
  -846
  -889
  -933
  -979
Free cash flow, $m
  299
  325
  353
  382
  412
  443
  476
  510
  545
  583
  619
  659
  702
  747
  794
  843
  895
  949
  1,006
  1,065
  1,128
  1,194
  1,263
  1,335
  1,411
  1,491
  1,575
  1,664
  1,757
  1,854
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  138
  143
  149
  155
  162
  168
  175
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  227
  237
  248
  259
  271
  284
  297
  312
  326
  342
  358
  376
  394
  413
  433
  454
  476
  500
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  138
  143
  149
  155
  162
  168
  175
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  227
  237
  248
  259
  271
  284
  297
  312
  326
  342
  358
  376
  394
  413
  433
  454
  476
  500
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  438
  469
  502
  537
  573
  611
  651
  693
  736
  782
  826
  876
  929
  984
  1,042
  1,103
  1,166
  1,233
  1,303
  1,377
  1,454
  1,536
  1,621
  1,711
  1,805
  1,904
  2,008
  2,118
  2,233
  2,354
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  380
  409
  440
  472
  506
  541
  578
  617
  657
  699
  740
  786
  835
  885
  939
  995
  1,053
  1,115
  1,179
  1,247
  1,318
  1,393
  1,472
  1,554
  1,641
  1,732
  1,828
  1,929
  2,034
  2,146
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  365
  374
  383
  389
  392
  393
  390
  385
  377
  366
  351
  335
  317
  297
  276
  253
  229
  205
  182
  158
  136
  116
  96
  79
  64
  51
  39
  30
  22
  16
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Hawaiian Holdings, Inc. is a holding company. The Company is engaged in the scheduled air transportation of passengers and cargo amongst the Hawaiian Islands (the Neighbor Island routes), between the Hawaiian Islands and certain cities in the United States (the North America routes), and between the Hawaiian Islands and the South Pacific, Australia, New Zealand and Asia (the International routes), collectively referred to as its Scheduled Operations. It offers non-stop service to Hawai'i from United States gateway cities. As of December 31, 2016, it also provided approximately 160 daily flights between the Hawaiian Islands. The Company operates various charter flights. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's fleet consisted of 20 Boeing 717-200 aircraft for the Neighbor Island routes, eight Boeing 767-300 aircraft, and 23 Airbus A330-200 aircraft for the North America, International, and charter routes.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hawaiian Holdings (HA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.8
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 10
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 73.2%
Total Debt to Equity 81.9%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Return On Total Capital 19.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Return On Equity 41.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.9%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.8%
EBITDA Margin 21.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.1%
Operating Margin 15.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Net Profit Margin 9.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Effective Tax Rate 38%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

HA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2695.628 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hawaiian Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Hawaiian Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hawaiian Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hawaiian Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 72.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $274 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.5% for Hawaiian Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hawaiian Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HA are equal to 67.1%.

Life of production assets of 16.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hawaiian Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HA is equal to -23.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $845.125 million for Hawaiian Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 50.738 million for Hawaiian Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hawaiian Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

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