Intrinsic value of Hanmi Financial - HAFC

Previous Close

$25.60

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$25.60

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as HAFC.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HAFC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
Revenue, $m
  222
  235
  248
  262
  277
  293
  309
  326
  344
  362
  382
  402
  423
  445
  469
  493
  518
  545
  573
  603
  634
  666
  700
  736
  773
  812
  853
  896
  942
  989
Variable operating expenses, $m
  111
  118
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  212
  223
  235
  247
  260
  273
  287
  302
  317
  334
  351
  369
  387
  407
  428
  449
  472
  496
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
Total operating expenses, $m
  120
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  202
  213
  224
  235
  247
  260
  273
  286
  301
  316
  331
  349
  366
  384
  403
  423
  444
  466
  489
  513
Operating income, $m
  101
  108
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  210
  221
  233
  246
  259
  272
  287
  302
  318
  334
  352
  370
  389
  410
  431
  453
  476
EBITDA, $m
  626
  663
  702
  742
  785
  829
  875
  923
  974
  1,027
  1,082
  1,140
  1,200
  1,264
  1,330
  1,400
  1,473
  1,549
  1,630
  1,714
  1,802
  1,894
  1,991
  2,093
  2,200
  2,312
  2,429
  2,553
  2,682
  2,818
Interest expense (income), $m
  19
  263
  253
  266
  280
  294
  309
  325
  341
  358
  376
  395
  415
  435
  457
  479
  503
  527
  553
  581
  609
  639
  670
  703
  737
  773
  811
  851
  892
  936
  982
Earnings before tax, $m
  -162
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -216
  -226
  -236
  -247
  -258
  -270
  -282
  -295
  -308
  -322
  -337
  -352
  -368
  -385
  -403
  -422
  -441
  -462
  -483
  -506
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -162
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -216
  -226
  -236
  -247
  -258
  -270
  -282
  -295
  -308
  -322
  -337
  -352
  -368
  -385
  -403
  -422
  -441
  -462
  -483
  -506

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,615
  4,888
  5,172
  5,468
  5,777
  6,100
  6,438
  6,790
  7,159
  7,545
  7,948
  8,371
  8,813
  9,276
  9,761
  10,269
  10,802
  11,360
  11,945
  12,558
  13,201
  13,876
  14,583
  15,325
  16,104
  16,920
  17,777
  18,677
  19,620
  20,611
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,615
  4,888
  5,172
  5,468
  5,777
  6,100
  6,438
  6,790
  7,159
  7,545
  7,948
  8,371
  8,813
  9,276
  9,761
  10,269
  10,802
  11,360
  11,945
  12,558
  13,201
  13,876
  14,583
  15,325
  16,104
  16,920
  17,777
  18,677
  19,620
  20,611
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
  0.048
Average production assets, $m
  5,244
  5,553
  5,876
  6,212
  6,564
  6,931
  7,314
  7,715
  8,134
  8,572
  9,030
  9,510
  10,012
  10,538
  11,090
  11,667
  12,272
  12,906
  13,570
  14,267
  14,998
  15,764
  16,568
  17,411
  18,296
  19,224
  20,197
  21,219
  22,291
  23,416
Working capital, $m
  -4,894
  -5,183
  -5,484
  -5,798
  -6,126
  -6,468
  -6,826
  -7,200
  -7,591
  -8,000
  -8,428
  -8,876
  -9,344
  -9,835
  -10,350
  -10,889
  -11,453
  -12,045
  -12,665
  -13,316
  -13,998
  -14,713
  -15,463
  -16,250
  -17,075
  -17,941
  -18,850
  -19,803
  -20,804
  -21,854
Total debt, $m
  4,680
  4,925
  5,181
  5,448
  5,726
  6,017
  6,320
  6,638
  6,970
  7,317
  7,680
  8,060
  8,458
  8,875
  9,311
  9,769
  10,248
  10,750
  11,277
  11,829
  12,407
  13,014
  13,651
  14,319
  15,020
  15,755
  16,526
  17,335
  18,185
  19,076
Total liabilities, $m
  4,154
  4,399
  4,655
  4,921
  5,200
  5,490
  5,794
  6,111
  6,443
  6,790
  7,153
  7,534
  7,932
  8,348
  8,785
  9,242
  9,721
  10,224
  10,750
  11,302
  11,881
  12,488
  13,125
  13,793
  14,493
  15,228
  16,000
  16,809
  17,658
  18,549
Total equity, $m
  462
  489
  517
  547
  578
  610
  644
  679
  716
  754
  795
  837
  881
  928
  976
  1,027
  1,080
  1,136
  1,194
  1,256
  1,320
  1,388
  1,458
  1,533
  1,610
  1,692
  1,778
  1,868
  1,962
  2,061
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,616
  4,888
  5,172
  5,468
  5,778
  6,100
  6,438
  6,790
  7,159
  7,544
  7,948
  8,371
  8,813
  9,276
  9,761
  10,269
  10,801
  11,360
  11,944
  12,558
  13,201
  13,876
  14,583
  15,326
  16,103
  16,920
  17,778
  18,677
  19,620
  20,610
Debt-to-equity ratio
  10.140
  10.080
  10.020
  9.960
  9.910
  9.860
  9.820
  9.780
  9.740
  9.700
  9.660
  9.630
  9.600
  9.570
  9.540
  9.510
  9.490
  9.460
  9.440
  9.420
  9.400
  9.380
  9.360
  9.340
  9.330
  9.310
  9.300
  9.280
  9.270
  9.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -162
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -216
  -226
  -236
  -247
  -258
  -270
  -282
  -295
  -308
  -322
  -337
  -352
  -368
  -385
  -403
  -422
  -441
  -462
  -483
  -506
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  524
  555
  588
  621
  656
  693
  731
  771
  813
  857
  903
  951
  1,001
  1,054
  1,109
  1,167
  1,227
  1,291
  1,357
  1,427
  1,500
  1,576
  1,657
  1,741
  1,830
  1,922
  2,020
  2,122
  2,229
  2,342
Funds from operations, $m
  362
  410
  436
  463
  491
  520
  550
  582
  615
  650
  687
  725
  765
  807
  851
  897
  945
  996
  1,049
  1,105
  1,163
  1,224
  1,288
  1,356
  1,427
  1,501
  1,579
  1,660
  1,746
  1,836
Change in working capital, $m
  -277
  -289
  -301
  -314
  -328
  -342
  -358
  -374
  -391
  -409
  -428
  -448
  -469
  -491
  -514
  -539
  -565
  -592
  -620
  -650
  -682
  -715
  -750
  -787
  -825
  -866
  -909
  -953
  -1,001
  -1,050
Cash from operations, $m
  639
  699
  737
  777
  818
  862
  908
  956
  1,006
  1,059
  1,115
  1,173
  1,234
  1,298
  1,365
  1,436
  1,510
  1,588
  1,669
  1,755
  1,845
  1,939
  2,039
  2,143
  2,252
  2,367
  2,487
  2,614
  2,747
  2,886
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -496
  -524
  -555
  -588
  -621
  -656
  -693
  -731
  -771
  -813
  -857
  -903
  -951
  -1,001
  -1,054
  -1,109
  -1,167
  -1,227
  -1,291
  -1,357
  -1,427
  -1,500
  -1,576
  -1,657
  -1,741
  -1,830
  -1,922
  -2,020
  -2,122
  -2,229
New CAPEX, $m
  -288
  -309
  -323
  -337
  -351
  -367
  -383
  -401
  -419
  -438
  -458
  -480
  -502
  -526
  -551
  -577
  -605
  -634
  -665
  -697
  -731
  -766
  -804
  -843
  -884
  -928
  -974
  -1,022
  -1,072
  -1,125
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -784
  -833
  -878
  -925
  -972
  -1,023
  -1,076
  -1,132
  -1,190
  -1,251
  -1,315
  -1,383
  -1,453
  -1,527
  -1,605
  -1,686
  -1,772
  -1,861
  -1,956
  -2,054
  -2,158
  -2,266
  -2,380
  -2,500
  -2,625
  -2,758
  -2,896
  -3,042
  -3,194
  -3,354
Free cash flow, $m
  -144
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -219
  -229
  -240
  -250
  -262
  -274
  -286
  -299
  -312
  -327
  -342
  -357
  -374
  -391
  -409
  -428
  -447
  -468
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -197
  245
  256
  267
  278
  291
  304
  317
  332
  347
  363
  380
  398
  417
  437
  457
  479
  502
  527
  552
  579
  607
  637
  668
  701
  735
  771
  809
  849
  891
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  625
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  215
  225
  235
  245
  257
  268
  280
  293
  306
  320
  335
  350
  367
  383
  401
  420
  439
  459
  481
  503
  527
  552
  577
  605
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  428
  417
  436
  455
  475
  497
  519
  542
  567
  592
  620
  648
  678
  710
  743
  777
  814
  852
  894
  935
  980
  1,027
  1,076
  1,127
  1,182
  1,238
  1,298
  1,361
  1,426
  1,496
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  285
  283
  295
  307
  321
  335
  350
  366
  383
  400
  419
  438
  459
  481
  503
  527
  553
  579
  607
  637
  667
  700
  734
  770
  808
  848
  889
  933
  979
  1,028
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -625
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -215
  -225
  -235
  -245
  -257
  -268
  -280
  -293
  -306
  -320
  -335
  -350
  -367
  -383
  -401
  -420
  -439
  -459
  -481
  -503
  -527
  -552
  -577
  -605
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -339
  110
  115
  119
  124
  130
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  179
  187
  197
  207
  218
  229
  241
  253
  266
  280
  295
  311
  327
  344
  363
  382
  402
  423
Discount rate, %
  14.20
  14.91
  15.66
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
  25.50
  26.78
  28.12
  29.52
  31.00
  32.55
  34.17
  35.88
  37.68
  39.56
  41.54
  43.62
  45.80
  48.09
  50.49
  53.02
  55.67
  58.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -297
  84
  74
  65
  56
  48
  40
  33
  27
  21
  16
  13
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  36.4
  26.6
  19.5
  14.3
  10.6
  7.8
  5.8
  4.3
  3.2
  2.4
  1.8
  1.3
  1.0
  0.8
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Hanmi Financial Corporation is the holding company for Hanmi Bank (the Bank). The Bank is a community bank conducting general business banking, with its primary market encompassing the Korean-American community, as well as other ethnic communities across California, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, New York, Texas, Virginia and Washington. The Bank's client base reflects the multi-ethnic composition of these communities. The Bank maintains a branch network of full-service branch offices in California, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, Texas and Virginia, and loan production offices in California, Colorado, Texas, Virginia and Washington State. Its lending activities include real estate loans (commercial property, construction and residential property), commercial and industrial loans (commercial term loans, commercial lines of credit and international), and consumer loans and small business administration (SBA) loans. Its revenues are derived from interest and fees on its loans.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hanmi Financial (HAFC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.8
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 3.6%
Total Debt to Equity 3.6%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Return On Total Capital 10.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Return On Equity 10.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 37.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.6%
Payout Ratio 46.4%

HAFC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HAFC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $209 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hanmi Financial. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Hanmi Financial. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HAFC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.2%, whose default value for HAFC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hanmi Financial, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hanmi Financial.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HAFC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 50.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $9 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HAFC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Hanmi Financial.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hanmi Financial. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HAFC stock is equal to 1.4%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HAFC are equal to 2366.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hanmi Financial operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HAFC is equal to -2209%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Hanmi Financial - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32 million for Hanmi Financial is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hanmi Financial at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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▶ Hanmi Financial meets 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-18-17 04:07PM  Associated Press]
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