Intrinsic value of Hasbro - HAS

Previous Close

$92.02

  Intrinsic Value

$130.60

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+42%

Previous close

$92.02

 
Intrinsic value

$130.60

 
Up/down potential

+42%

 
Rating

buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HAS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 11.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.86
  12.90
  12.11
  11.40
  10.76
  10.18
  9.66
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.75
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
Revenue, $m
  5,020
  5,668
  6,354
  7,078
  7,840
  8,638
  9,473
  10,344
  11,252
  12,198
  13,181
  14,203
  15,265
  16,369
  17,516
  18,709
  19,948
  21,238
  22,580
  23,976
  25,431
  26,947
  28,527
  30,175
  31,895
  33,691
  35,567
  37,527
  39,575
  41,718
  43,959
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,708
  5,271
  5,866
  6,491
  7,146
  7,831
  8,546
  9,291
  10,067
  10,874
  11,655
  12,527
  13,433
  14,374
  15,353
  16,370
  17,428
  18,529
  19,676
  20,869
  22,113
  23,410
  24,763
  26,174
  27,648
  29,187
  30,795
  32,477
  34,235
  36,074
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  57
  59
  60
  62
  63
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  90
  92
  94
  96
  99
  101
  104
  106
  109
  112
  115
  117
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,232
  4,765
  5,330
  5,926
  6,553
  7,209
  7,896
  8,613
  9,359
  10,137
  10,946
  11,728
  12,602
  13,510
  14,453
  15,434
  16,453
  17,513
  18,616
  19,766
  20,961
  22,207
  23,506
  24,862
  26,275
  27,752
  29,293
  30,904
  32,589
  34,350
  36,191
Operating income, $m
  788
  902
  1,024
  1,152
  1,287
  1,429
  1,577
  1,732
  1,893
  2,061
  2,236
  2,474
  2,663
  2,859
  3,063
  3,275
  3,495
  3,724
  3,963
  4,211
  4,470
  4,740
  5,021
  5,314
  5,620
  5,940
  6,273
  6,622
  6,987
  7,368
  7,768
EBITDA, $m
  943
  1,035
  1,166
  1,304
  1,449
  1,601
  1,761
  1,927
  2,100
  2,281
  2,468
  2,664
  2,866
  3,077
  3,296
  3,524
  3,761
  4,007
  4,264
  4,531
  4,809
  5,099
  5,401
  5,716
  6,045
  6,389
  6,748
  7,123
  7,515
  7,925
  8,354
Interest expense (income), $m
  89
  62
  80
  100
  120
  141
  164
  187
  211
  237
  263
  291
  319
  349
  380
  412
  446
  480
  517
  554
  593
  634
  676
  721
  767
  815
  865
  918
  973
  1,030
  1,090
Earnings before tax, $m
  692
  840
  943
  1,053
  1,167
  1,288
  1,414
  1,545
  1,682
  1,824
  1,972
  2,183
  2,343
  2,510
  2,683
  2,862
  3,049
  3,244
  3,446
  3,657
  3,877
  4,105
  4,344
  4,593
  4,853
  5,124
  5,408
  5,704
  6,014
  6,338
  6,677
Tax expense, $m
  159
  227
  255
  284
  315
  348
  382
  417
  454
  493
  532
  589
  633
  678
  724
  773
  823
  876
  931
  987
  1,047
  1,108
  1,173
  1,240
  1,310
  1,384
  1,460
  1,540
  1,624
  1,711
  1,803
Net income, $m
  551
  613
  689
  768
  852
  940
  1,032
  1,128
  1,228
  1,332
  1,440
  1,594
  1,711
  1,832
  1,958
  2,090
  2,226
  2,368
  2,516
  2,670
  2,830
  2,997
  3,171
  3,353
  3,543
  3,741
  3,948
  4,164
  4,390
  4,627
  4,874

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,282
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,091
  4,300
  4,821
  5,370
  5,948
  6,554
  7,187
  7,848
  8,537
  9,255
  10,001
  10,776
  11,582
  12,420
  13,290
  14,195
  15,135
  16,114
  17,132
  18,191
  19,295
  20,445
  21,644
  22,895
  24,200
  25,562
  26,985
  28,472
  30,027
  31,652
  33,353
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,809
  4,300
  4,821
  5,370
  5,948
  6,554
  7,187
  7,848
  8,537
  9,255
  10,001
  10,776
  11,582
  12,420
  13,290
  14,195
  15,135
  16,114
  17,132
  18,191
  19,295
  20,445
  21,644
  22,895
  24,200
  25,562
  26,985
  28,472
  30,027
  31,652
  33,353
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
  1.318
Average production assets, $m
  440
  499
  559
  623
  690
  760
  834
  910
  990
  1,073
  1,160
  1,250
  1,343
  1,440
  1,541
  1,646
  1,755
  1,869
  1,987
  2,110
  2,238
  2,371
  2,510
  2,655
  2,807
  2,965
  3,130
  3,302
  3,483
  3,671
  3,868
Working capital, $m
  1,610
  963
  1,080
  1,203
  1,333
  1,468
  1,610
  1,759
  1,913
  2,074
  2,241
  2,415
  2,595
  2,783
  2,978
  3,180
  3,391
  3,610
  3,839
  4,076
  4,323
  4,581
  4,850
  5,130
  5,422
  5,727
  6,046
  6,380
  6,728
  7,092
  7,473
Total debt, $m
  1,721
  1,546
  1,916
  2,306
  2,716
  3,146
  3,596
  4,065
  4,555
  5,064
  5,593
  6,144
  6,716
  7,311
  7,929
  8,571
  9,239
  9,934
  10,656
  11,409
  12,193
  13,009
  13,860
  14,748
  15,675
  16,642
  17,653
  18,708
  19,812
  20,966
  22,173
Total liabilities, $m
  3,229
  3,053
  3,423
  3,813
  4,223
  4,653
  5,103
  5,572
  6,062
  6,571
  7,100
  7,651
  8,223
  8,818
  9,436
  10,078
  10,746
  11,441
  12,163
  12,916
  13,700
  14,516
  15,367
  16,255
  17,182
  18,149
  19,160
  20,215
  21,319
  22,473
  23,680
Total equity, $m
  1,863
  1,247
  1,398
  1,557
  1,725
  1,901
  2,084
  2,276
  2,476
  2,684
  2,900
  3,125
  3,359
  3,602
  3,854
  4,116
  4,389
  4,673
  4,968
  5,276
  5,596
  5,929
  6,277
  6,639
  7,018
  7,413
  7,826
  8,257
  8,708
  9,179
  9,672
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,092
  4,300
  4,821
  5,370
  5,948
  6,554
  7,187
  7,848
  8,538
  9,255
  10,000
  10,776
  11,582
  12,420
  13,290
  14,194
  15,135
  16,114
  17,131
  18,192
  19,296
  20,445
  21,644
  22,894
  24,200
  25,562
  26,986
  28,472
  30,027
  31,652
  33,352
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.924
  1.240
  1.370
  1.480
  1.570
  1.660
  1.730
  1.790
  1.840
  1.890
  1.930
  1.970
  2.000
  2.030
  2.060
  2.080
  2.100
  2.130
  2.140
  2.160
  2.180
  2.190
  2.210
  2.220
  2.230
  2.240
  2.260
  2.270
  2.280
  2.280
  2.290
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.198
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  551
  613
  689
  768
  852
  940
  1,032
  1,128
  1,228
  1,332
  1,440
  1,594
  1,711
  1,832
  1,958
  2,090
  2,226
  2,368
  2,516
  2,670
  2,830
  2,997
  3,171
  3,353
  3,543
  3,741
  3,948
  4,164
  4,390
  4,627
  4,874
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  155
  133
  142
  151
  162
  172
  183
  195
  207
  220
  233
  189
  204
  218
  234
  249
  266
  283
  301
  320
  339
  359
  380
  402
  425
  449
  474
  500
  528
  556
  586
Funds from operations, $m
  732
  746
  831
  920
  1,014
  1,112
  1,215
  1,323
  1,435
  1,551
  1,673
  1,783
  1,914
  2,050
  2,192
  2,339
  2,492
  2,651
  2,817
  2,989
  3,169
  3,356
  3,552
  3,755
  3,968
  4,190
  4,422
  4,664
  4,918
  5,183
  5,461
Change in working capital, $m
  -43
  110
  117
  123
  129
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  167
  174
  181
  188
  195
  203
  211
  219
  228
  237
  247
  258
  269
  280
  292
  305
  319
  333
  348
  364
  381
Cash from operations, $m
  775
  636
  714
  797
  884
  977
  1,073
  1,175
  1,280
  1,391
  1,505
  1,609
  1,734
  1,863
  1,997
  2,136
  2,281
  2,432
  2,589
  2,752
  2,922
  3,099
  3,283
  3,475
  3,676
  3,885
  4,103
  4,331
  4,570
  4,819
  5,080
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -67
  -76
  -85
  -94
  -105
  -115
  -126
  -138
  -150
  -163
  -176
  -189
  -204
  -218
  -234
  -249
  -266
  -283
  -301
  -320
  -339
  -359
  -380
  -402
  -425
  -449
  -474
  -500
  -528
  -556
New CAPEX, $m
  -155
  -59
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -197
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -138
  -126
  -136
  -149
  -161
  -175
  -188
  -203
  -218
  -233
  -250
  -266
  -282
  -301
  -319
  -339
  -358
  -379
  -401
  -424
  -448
  -472
  -498
  -525
  -553
  -583
  -614
  -646
  -680
  -717
  -753
Free cash flow, $m
  637
  510
  578
  648
  723
  802
  885
  972
  1,063
  1,157
  1,256
  1,344
  1,451
  1,562
  1,678
  1,798
  1,923
  2,053
  2,188
  2,328
  2,474
  2,626
  2,785
  2,950
  3,122
  3,301
  3,489
  3,685
  3,889
  4,103
  4,326
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  9
  348
  370
  390
  410
  430
  450
  469
  489
  509
  530
  551
  572
  595
  618
  642
  668
  695
  723
  752
  784
  817
  851
  888
  927
  967
  1,010
  1,056
  1,104
  1,154
  1,207
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -108
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -84
  348
  370
  390
  410
  430
  450
  469
  489
  509
  530
  551
  572
  595
  618
  642
  668
  695
  723
  752
  784
  817
  851
  888
  927
  967
  1,010
  1,056
  1,104
  1,154
  1,207
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  555
  858
  948
  1,038
  1,133
  1,232
  1,334
  1,441
  1,552
  1,667
  1,786
  1,894
  2,023
  2,157
  2,296
  2,440
  2,591
  2,747
  2,910
  3,080
  3,258
  3,443
  3,636
  3,838
  4,048
  4,269
  4,499
  4,740
  4,993
  5,257
  5,533
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -199
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -200
  -208
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -243
  -252
  -262
  -273
  -284
  -295
  -307
  -320
  -334
  -348
  -363
  -378
  -395
  -413
  -431
  -451
  -471
  -493
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  759
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,474
  797
  879
  966
  1,056
  1,151
  1,249
  1,352
  1,459
  1,570
  1,669
  1,789
  1,914
  2,043
  2,178
  2,318
  2,463
  2,615
  2,773
  2,938
  3,109
  3,288
  3,475
  3,670
  3,874
  4,087
  4,309
  4,542
  4,785
  5,040
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,414
  729
  765
  795
  819
  835
  844
  845
  838
  823
  793
  764
  728
  686
  639
  589
  536
  482
  427
  373
  322
  273
  228
  187
  151
  119
  92
  70
  52
  38
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Hasbro, Inc. (Hasbro) is a play and entertainment company. The Company's operating segments include the U.S. and Canada, International, and Entertainment and Licensing. From toys and games to content development, including television programming, motion pictures, digital gaming and a consumer products licensing program, Hasbro fulfills the fundamental need for play and connection for children and families around the world. The Company's U.S. and Canada segment is engaged in the marketing and sale of its products in the United States and Canada. The International segment is engaged in the marketing and sale of the Company's product categories to retailers and wholesalers in most countries in Europe, Latin and South America, and the Asia Pacific region and through distributors in those countries where it has no direct presence. The Entertainment and Licensing segment includes the Company's consumer products licensing, digital gaming, television and movie entertainment operations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hasbro (HAS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.8
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 6.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 9.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 64.3%
Total Debt to Equity 92.4%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Return On Total Capital 15.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.2%
Return On Equity 31.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.9%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 61.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.6%
EBITDA Margin 18.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
Operating Margin 15.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Net Profit Margin 11%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Effective Tax Rate 23%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
Payout Ratio 45.2%

HAS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HAS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5020 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hasbro. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Hasbro. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HAS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HAS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hasbro, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hasbro.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HAS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $56 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HAS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.2% for Hasbro.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hasbro. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HAS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HAS are equal to 8.8%.

Life of production assets of 6.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hasbro operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HAS is equal to 17%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1863 million for Hasbro - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 125.064 million for Hasbro is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hasbro at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $11.5 billion.

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Financial statements of HAS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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