Intrinsic value of Hanesbrands - HBI

Previous Close

$18.19

  Intrinsic Value

$19.18

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+5%

Previous close

$18.19

 
Intrinsic value

$19.18

 
Up/down potential

+5%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of HBI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.40
  7.16
  6.94
  6.75
  6.57
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.03
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
Revenue, $m
  6,950
  7,447
  7,965
  8,502
  9,061
  9,643
  10,248
  10,878
  11,534
  12,218
  12,931
  13,675
  14,452
  15,262
  16,109
  16,994
  17,920
  18,887
  19,900
  20,959
  22,068
  23,230
  24,446
  25,720
  27,056
  28,455
  29,922
  31,460
  33,072
  34,763
Variable operating expenses, $m
  6,034
  6,448
  6,878
  7,325
  7,789
  8,273
  8,776
  9,300
  9,845
  10,414
  10,749
  11,368
  12,013
  12,687
  13,391
  14,127
  14,896
  15,701
  16,542
  17,423
  18,345
  19,310
  20,322
  21,381
  22,491
  23,654
  24,874
  26,152
  27,492
  28,898
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,034
  6,448
  6,878
  7,325
  7,789
  8,273
  8,776
  9,300
  9,845
  10,414
  10,749
  11,368
  12,013
  12,687
  13,391
  14,127
  14,896
  15,701
  16,542
  17,423
  18,345
  19,310
  20,322
  21,381
  22,491
  23,654
  24,874
  26,152
  27,492
  28,898
Operating income, $m
  916
  1,000
  1,087
  1,177
  1,272
  1,370
  1,472
  1,578
  1,689
  1,804
  2,182
  2,307
  2,438
  2,575
  2,718
  2,867
  3,023
  3,187
  3,357
  3,536
  3,723
  3,919
  4,124
  4,339
  4,565
  4,801
  5,048
  5,308
  5,580
  5,865
EBITDA, $m
  1,509
  1,617
  1,729
  1,846
  1,967
  2,094
  2,225
  2,362
  2,504
  2,653
  2,808
  2,969
  3,138
  3,314
  3,498
  3,690
  3,891
  4,101
  4,321
  4,551
  4,791
  5,044
  5,308
  5,584
  5,874
  6,178
  6,497
  6,830
  7,180
  7,548
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  214
  238
  264
  291
  319
  348
  378
  409
  442
  476
  511
  548
  587
  627
  669
  713
  758
  806
  856
  909
  964
  1,021
  1,081
  1,144
  1,210
  1,279
  1,352
  1,427
  1,507
  1,590
Earnings before tax, $m
  702
  761
  823
  886
  953
  1,022
  1,094
  1,169
  1,247
  1,329
  1,671
  1,759
  1,852
  1,948
  2,049
  2,155
  2,265
  2,380
  2,501
  2,627
  2,760
  2,898
  3,043
  3,195
  3,355
  3,522
  3,697
  3,880
  4,073
  4,275
Tax expense, $m
  189
  205
  222
  239
  257
  276
  295
  316
  337
  359
  451
  475
  500
  526
  553
  582
  612
  643
  675
  709
  745
  783
  822
  863
  906
  951
  998
  1,048
  1,100
  1,154
Net income, $m
  512
  556
  600
  647
  696
  746
  799
  853
  910
  970
  1,220
  1,284
  1,352
  1,422
  1,496
  1,573
  1,653
  1,738
  1,826
  1,918
  2,015
  2,116
  2,222
  2,333
  2,449
  2,571
  2,699
  2,833
  2,973
  3,120

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,401
  7,931
  8,482
  9,055
  9,650
  10,269
  10,914
  11,584
  12,283
  13,012
  13,771
  14,563
  15,390
  16,254
  17,156
  18,098
  19,084
  20,114
  21,192
  22,321
  23,502
  24,739
  26,034
  27,391
  28,813
  30,304
  31,866
  33,503
  35,221
  37,022
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,401
  7,931
  8,482
  9,055
  9,650
  10,269
  10,914
  11,584
  12,283
  13,012
  13,771
  14,563
  15,390
  16,254
  17,156
  18,098
  19,084
  20,114
  21,192
  22,321
  23,502
  24,739
  26,034
  27,391
  28,813
  30,304
  31,866
  33,503
  35,221
  37,022
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
Average production assets, $m
  3,364
  3,605
  3,855
  4,115
  4,386
  4,667
  4,960
  5,265
  5,582
  5,914
  6,259
  6,619
  6,995
  7,387
  7,797
  8,225
  8,673
  9,141
  9,631
  10,144
  10,681
  11,243
  11,832
  12,449
  13,095
  13,772
  14,482
  15,227
  16,007
  16,825
Working capital, $m
  1,084
  1,162
  1,242
  1,326
  1,414
  1,504
  1,599
  1,697
  1,799
  1,906
  2,017
  2,133
  2,254
  2,381
  2,513
  2,651
  2,795
  2,946
  3,104
  3,270
  3,443
  3,624
  3,814
  4,012
  4,221
  4,439
  4,668
  4,908
  5,159
  5,423
Total debt, $m
  4,416
  4,893
  5,389
  5,904
  6,440
  6,997
  7,577
  8,181
  8,810
  9,465
  10,149
  10,862
  11,606
  12,383
  13,195
  14,043
  14,930
  15,858
  16,828
  17,843
  18,906
  20,020
  21,185
  22,407
  23,687
  25,028
  26,434
  27,908
  29,453
  31,074
Total liabilities, $m
  6,661
  7,138
  7,634
  8,149
  8,685
  9,242
  9,822
  10,426
  11,055
  11,711
  12,394
  13,107
  13,851
  14,628
  15,440
  16,288
  17,175
  18,103
  19,073
  20,089
  21,152
  22,265
  23,431
  24,652
  25,932
  27,273
  28,679
  30,153
  31,699
  33,319
Total equity, $m
  740
  793
  848
  905
  965
  1,027
  1,091
  1,158
  1,228
  1,301
  1,377
  1,456
  1,539
  1,625
  1,716
  1,810
  1,908
  2,011
  2,119
  2,232
  2,350
  2,474
  2,603
  2,739
  2,881
  3,030
  3,187
  3,350
  3,522
  3,702
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,401
  7,931
  8,482
  9,054
  9,650
  10,269
  10,913
  11,584
  12,283
  13,012
  13,771
  14,563
  15,390
  16,253
  17,156
  18,098
  19,083
  20,114
  21,192
  22,321
  23,502
  24,739
  26,034
  27,391
  28,813
  30,303
  31,866
  33,503
  35,221
  37,021
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.970
  6.170
  6.350
  6.520
  6.670
  6.810
  6.940
  7.060
  7.170
  7.270
  7.370
  7.460
  7.540
  7.620
  7.690
  7.760
  7.820
  7.880
  7.940
  7.990
  8.040
  8.090
  8.140
  8.180
  8.220
  8.260
  8.300
  8.330
  8.360
  8.390
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  512
  556
  600
  647
  696
  746
  799
  853
  910
  970
  1,220
  1,284
  1,352
  1,422
  1,496
  1,573
  1,653
  1,738
  1,826
  1,918
  2,015
  2,116
  2,222
  2,333
  2,449
  2,571
  2,699
  2,833
  2,973
  3,120
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  593
  617
  642
  669
  696
  724
  753
  783
  815
  848
  626
  662
  699
  739
  780
  823
  867
  914
  963
  1,014
  1,068
  1,124
  1,183
  1,245
  1,309
  1,377
  1,448
  1,523
  1,601
  1,683
Funds from operations, $m
  1,105
  1,173
  1,243
  1,316
  1,391
  1,470
  1,552
  1,637
  1,726
  1,818
  1,845
  1,946
  2,051
  2,161
  2,276
  2,395
  2,521
  2,652
  2,789
  2,932
  3,083
  3,240
  3,405
  3,578
  3,758
  3,948
  4,147
  4,355
  4,574
  4,803
Change in working capital, $m
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  218
  229
  240
  252
  264
Cash from operations, $m
  1,031
  1,095
  1,162
  1,232
  1,304
  1,379
  1,457
  1,539
  1,623
  1,712
  1,734
  1,830
  1,930
  2,034
  2,143
  2,257
  2,376
  2,501
  2,631
  2,767
  2,910
  3,059
  3,215
  3,379
  3,550
  3,730
  3,918
  4,115
  4,322
  4,539
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -314
  -336
  -360
  -385
  -412
  -439
  -467
  -496
  -526
  -558
  -591
  -626
  -662
  -699
  -739
  -780
  -823
  -867
  -914
  -963
  -1,014
  -1,068
  -1,124
  -1,183
  -1,245
  -1,309
  -1,377
  -1,448
  -1,523
  -1,601
New CAPEX, $m
  -229
  -241
  -250
  -260
  -271
  -281
  -293
  -305
  -318
  -331
  -345
  -360
  -376
  -392
  -410
  -428
  -448
  -468
  -490
  -513
  -537
  -562
  -589
  -617
  -646
  -677
  -710
  -744
  -780
  -818
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -543
  -577
  -610
  -645
  -683
  -720
  -760
  -801
  -844
  -889
  -936
  -986
  -1,038
  -1,091
  -1,149
  -1,208
  -1,271
  -1,335
  -1,404
  -1,476
  -1,551
  -1,630
  -1,713
  -1,800
  -1,891
  -1,986
  -2,087
  -2,192
  -2,303
  -2,419
Free cash flow, $m
  489
  518
  552
  586
  622
  659
  698
  738
  779
  822
  798
  844
  892
  943
  995
  1,049
  1,106
  1,165
  1,227
  1,291
  1,358
  1,429
  1,502
  1,579
  1,659
  1,743
  1,831
  1,923
  2,019
  2,120
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  452
  477
  496
  515
  536
  557
  580
  604
  629
  656
  684
  713
  744
  777
  812
  848
  887
  928
  970
  1,015
  1,063
  1,113
  1,166
  1,221
  1,280
  1,341
  1,406
  1,474
  1,546
  1,621
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  452
  477
  496
  515
  536
  557
  580
  604
  629
  656
  684
  713
  744
  777
  812
  848
  887
  928
  970
  1,015
  1,063
  1,113
  1,166
  1,221
  1,280
  1,341
  1,406
  1,474
  1,546
  1,621
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  941
  995
  1,047
  1,101
  1,158
  1,216
  1,278
  1,342
  1,408
  1,478
  1,481
  1,557
  1,637
  1,720
  1,807
  1,898
  1,993
  2,093
  2,197
  2,307
  2,421
  2,542
  2,668
  2,800
  2,939
  3,084
  3,237
  3,397
  3,565
  3,741
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -54
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  132
Cash available for distribution, $m
  887
  942
  992
  1,044
  1,098
  1,155
  1,213
  1,274
  1,338
  1,405
  1,405
  1,478
  1,554
  1,633
  1,716
  1,803
  1,894
  1,990
  2,089
  2,194
  2,303
  2,418
  2,538
  2,664
  2,797
  2,935
  3,081
  3,233
  3,393
  3,561
Discount rate, %
  10.10
  10.61
  11.14
  11.69
  12.28
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.67
  16.45
  17.27
  18.14
  19.05
  20.00
  21.00
  22.05
  23.15
  24.31
  25.52
  26.80
  28.14
  29.55
  31.02
  32.57
  34.20
  35.91
  37.71
  39.59
  41.57
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  806
  770
  723
  671
  616
  558
  499
  440
  383
  328
  263
  218
  178
  142
  111
  85
  64
  47
  33
  23
  16
  10
  7
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Hanesbrands Inc. is a marketer of basic innerwear and activewear apparel in the Americas, Europe, Australia and Asia/Pacific under apparel brands, such as Hanes, Champion, Maidenform, DIM, Bali, Playtex, Bonds, JMS/Just My Size, Nur Die/Nur Der, L'eggs, Lovable, Wonderbra, Flexees, Gear for Sports and Berlei. The Company operates through four segments: Innerwear, Activewear, Direct to Consumer and International. The Innerwear segment focuses on core apparel products, such as intimate apparel, men's underwear, women's panties, children's underwear, socks and hosiery. The Company operates in the activewear market through its Champion, Hanes and JMS/Just My Size brands. The Direct to Consumer segment operations include its domestic Company-operated outlet stores and Website operations that sell its branded products directly to consumers in the United States. The International segment includes products that primarily span across the innerwear and activewear segments.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hanesbrands (HBI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.8
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 5.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 13.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 286.6%
Total Debt to Equity 305.7%
Interest Coverage 572
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Return On Total Capital 12.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Return On Equity 43.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.4%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.9%
EBITDA Margin 11.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Operating Margin 12.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Net Profit Margin 8.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Effective Tax Rate 6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Payout Ratio 31%

HBI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HBI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6471 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hanesbrands. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Hanesbrands. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HBI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.1%, whose default value for HBI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hanesbrands, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hanesbrands.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HBI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HBI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Hanesbrands.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hanesbrands. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HBI stock is equal to 0.4%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HBI are equal to 48.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hanesbrands operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HBI is equal to 15.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $686 million for Hanesbrands - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 365 million for Hanesbrands is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hanesbrands at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.6 billion.

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