Intrinsic value of Hanesbrands Inc. - HBI

Previous Close

$14.12

  Intrinsic Value

$25.81

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+83%

Previous close

$14.12

 
Intrinsic value

$25.81

 
Up/down potential

+83%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of HBI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.50
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
Revenue, $m
  7,314
  7,845
  8,396
  8,968
  9,564
  10,183
  10,828
  11,499
  12,197
  12,925
  13,684
  14,476
  15,302
  16,164
  17,065
  18,006
  18,990
  20,018
  21,094
  22,220
  23,399
  24,633
  25,925
  27,279
  28,697
  30,184
  31,741
  33,375
  35,087
  36,883
Variable operating expenses, $m
  5,187
  5,543
  5,912
  6,297
  6,696
  7,112
  7,544
  7,994
  8,463
  8,951
  9,181
  9,712
  10,266
  10,844
  11,449
  12,080
  12,740
  13,430
  14,152
  14,907
  15,698
  16,526
  17,393
  18,301
  19,253
  20,250
  21,295
  22,391
  23,540
  24,744
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  1,141
  1,166
  1,191
  1,217
  1,244
  1,272
  1,300
  1,328
  1,357
  1,387
  1,418
  1,449
  1,481
  1,513
  1,547
  1,581
  1,616
  1,651
  1,687
  1,725
  1,763
  1,801
  1,841
  1,881
  1,923
  1,965
  2,008
  2,053
  2,098
  2,144
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,328
  6,709
  7,103
  7,514
  7,940
  8,384
  8,844
  9,322
  9,820
  10,338
  10,599
  11,161
  11,747
  12,357
  12,996
  13,661
  14,356
  15,081
  15,839
  16,632
  17,461
  18,327
  19,234
  20,182
  21,176
  22,215
  23,303
  24,444
  25,638
  26,888
Operating income, $m
  987
  1,136
  1,292
  1,454
  1,624
  1,800
  1,984
  2,176
  2,377
  2,587
  3,086
  3,315
  3,555
  3,806
  4,069
  4,345
  4,634
  4,937
  5,255
  5,588
  5,938
  6,306
  6,691
  7,096
  7,522
  7,969
  8,438
  8,931
  9,450
  9,995
EBITDA, $m
  1,351
  1,506
  1,669
  1,837
  2,013
  2,197
  2,389
  2,589
  2,797
  3,015
  3,243
  3,482
  3,731
  3,993
  4,266
  4,553
  4,853
  5,168
  5,498
  5,844
  6,208
  6,589
  6,990
  7,411
  7,852
  8,316
  8,804
  9,316
  9,854
  10,419
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  215
  240
  267
  294
  323
  352
  383
  415
  449
  484
  520
  558
  597
  638
  681
  726
  773
  822
  874
  927
  983
  1,042
  1,104
  1,168
  1,236
  1,306
  1,380
  1,458
  1,539
  1,625
Earnings before tax, $m
  772
  896
  1,025
  1,160
  1,301
  1,448
  1,601
  1,761
  1,928
  2,103
  2,566
  2,757
  2,958
  3,168
  3,388
  3,619
  3,861
  4,115
  4,381
  4,661
  4,955
  5,264
  5,588
  5,928
  6,286
  6,662
  7,058
  7,473
  7,910
  8,370
Tax expense, $m
  208
  242
  277
  313
  351
  391
  432
  475
  521
  568
  693
  744
  799
  855
  915
  977
  1,042
  1,111
  1,183
  1,259
  1,338
  1,421
  1,509
  1,601
  1,697
  1,799
  1,906
  2,018
  2,136
  2,260
Net income, $m
  564
  654
  749
  847
  950
  1,057
  1,169
  1,286
  1,408
  1,535
  1,873
  2,013
  2,159
  2,313
  2,473
  2,642
  2,818
  3,004
  3,198
  3,403
  3,617
  3,842
  4,079
  4,328
  4,589
  4,863
  5,152
  5,456
  5,775
  6,110

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,798
  8,363
  8,951
  9,561
  10,196
  10,856
  11,544
  12,259
  13,004
  13,780
  14,589
  15,433
  16,313
  17,233
  18,193
  19,196
  20,245
  21,342
  22,489
  23,689
  24,946
  26,261
  27,639
  29,082
  30,594
  32,179
  33,840
  35,581
  37,406
  39,321
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,798
  8,363
  8,951
  9,561
  10,196
  10,856
  11,544
  12,259
  13,004
  13,780
  14,589
  15,433
  16,313
  17,233
  18,193
  19,196
  20,245
  21,342
  22,489
  23,689
  24,946
  26,261
  27,639
  29,082
  30,594
  32,179
  33,840
  35,581
  37,406
  39,321
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
  0.938
Average production assets, $m
  2,107
  2,259
  2,418
  2,583
  2,754
  2,933
  3,118
  3,312
  3,513
  3,723
  3,941
  4,169
  4,407
  4,655
  4,915
  5,186
  5,469
  5,765
  6,075
  6,399
  6,739
  7,094
  7,466
  7,856
  8,265
  8,693
  9,142
  9,612
  10,105
  10,622
Working capital, $m
  1,616
  1,734
  1,855
  1,982
  2,114
  2,251
  2,393
  2,541
  2,696
  2,857
  3,024
  3,199
  3,382
  3,572
  3,771
  3,979
  4,197
  4,424
  4,662
  4,911
  5,171
  5,444
  5,729
  6,029
  6,342
  6,671
  7,015
  7,376
  7,754
  8,151
Total debt, $m
  4,448
  4,937
  5,446
  5,975
  6,525
  7,097
  7,692
  8,311
  8,956
  9,628
  10,329
  11,060
  11,822
  12,618
  13,450
  14,319
  15,227
  16,177
  17,170
  18,210
  19,298
  20,437
  21,630
  22,880
  24,189
  25,562
  27,000
  28,508
  30,089
  31,747
Total liabilities, $m
  6,753
  7,242
  7,751
  8,280
  8,830
  9,402
  9,997
  10,616
  11,261
  11,933
  12,634
  13,365
  14,127
  14,923
  15,755
  16,624
  17,532
  18,482
  19,475
  20,515
  21,603
  22,742
  23,935
  25,185
  26,494
  27,867
  29,305
  30,813
  32,394
  34,052
Total equity, $m
  1,045
  1,121
  1,199
  1,281
  1,366
  1,455
  1,547
  1,643
  1,742
  1,846
  1,955
  2,068
  2,186
  2,309
  2,438
  2,572
  2,713
  2,860
  3,013
  3,174
  3,343
  3,519
  3,704
  3,897
  4,100
  4,312
  4,534
  4,768
  5,012
  5,269
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,798
  8,363
  8,950
  9,561
  10,196
  10,857
  11,544
  12,259
  13,003
  13,779
  14,589
  15,433
  16,313
  17,232
  18,193
  19,196
  20,245
  21,342
  22,488
  23,689
  24,946
  26,261
  27,639
  29,082
  30,594
  32,179
  33,839
  35,581
  37,406
  39,321
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.260
  4.410
  4.540
  4.660
  4.780
  4.880
  4.970
  5.060
  5.140
  5.210
  5.280
  5.350
  5.410
  5.460
  5.520
  5.570
  5.610
  5.660
  5.700
  5.740
  5.770
  5.810
  5.840
  5.870
  5.900
  5.930
  5.950
  5.980
  6.000
  6.030
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  564
  654
  749
  847
  950
  1,057
  1,169
  1,286
  1,408
  1,535
  1,873
  2,013
  2,159
  2,313
  2,473
  2,642
  2,818
  3,004
  3,198
  3,403
  3,617
  3,842
  4,079
  4,328
  4,589
  4,863
  5,152
  5,456
  5,775
  6,110
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  364
  370
  376
  383
  390
  397
  404
  412
  420
  429
  158
  167
  176
  186
  197
  207
  219
  231
  243
  256
  270
  284
  299
  314
  331
  348
  366
  384
  404
  425
Funds from operations, $m
  928
  1,024
  1,125
  1,230
  1,340
  1,454
  1,573
  1,698
  1,828
  1,964
  2,031
  2,180
  2,336
  2,499
  2,670
  2,849
  3,037
  3,234
  3,441
  3,659
  3,887
  4,126
  4,378
  4,642
  4,919
  5,211
  5,518
  5,840
  6,179
  6,535
Change in working capital, $m
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  227
  238
  249
  260
  273
  286
  299
  313
  328
  344
  361
  378
  397
Cash from operations, $m
  815
  907
  1,003
  1,103
  1,208
  1,317
  1,431
  1,549
  1,673
  1,803
  1,863
  2,005
  2,153
  2,308
  2,471
  2,641
  2,820
  3,007
  3,204
  3,410
  3,626
  3,853
  4,092
  4,343
  4,606
  4,883
  5,173
  5,479
  5,800
  6,138
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -97
  -103
  -110
  -117
  -125
  -132
  -141
  -149
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -186
  -197
  -207
  -219
  -231
  -243
  -256
  -270
  -284
  -299
  -314
  -331
  -348
  -366
  -384
  -404
New CAPEX, $m
  -149
  -153
  -159
  -165
  -172
  -178
  -186
  -193
  -201
  -210
  -219
  -228
  -238
  -248
  -259
  -271
  -283
  -296
  -310
  -324
  -339
  -355
  -372
  -390
  -408
  -428
  -449
  -470
  -493
  -517
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -227
  -237
  -249
  -262
  -275
  -288
  -303
  -318
  -333
  -351
  -368
  -386
  -405
  -424
  -445
  -468
  -490
  -515
  -541
  -567
  -595
  -625
  -656
  -689
  -722
  -759
  -797
  -836
  -877
  -921
Free cash flow, $m
  587
  670
  754
  842
  933
  1,028
  1,128
  1,232
  1,340
  1,453
  1,496
  1,619
  1,748
  1,884
  2,025
  2,174
  2,329
  2,492
  2,663
  2,842
  3,031
  3,228
  3,436
  3,654
  3,883
  4,124
  4,377
  4,643
  4,923
  5,217
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  467
  490
  509
  529
  550
  572
  595
  619
  645
  672
  701
  731
  763
  796
  832
  869
  908
  950
  993
  1,040
  1,088
  1,139
  1,193
  1,250
  1,309
  1,372
  1,438
  1,508
  1,581
  1,658
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  467
  490
  509
  529
  550
  572
  595
  619
  645
  672
  701
  731
  763
  796
  832
  869
  908
  950
  993
  1,040
  1,088
  1,139
  1,193
  1,250
  1,309
  1,372
  1,438
  1,508
  1,581
  1,658
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,055
  1,160
  1,263
  1,371
  1,483
  1,600
  1,723
  1,851
  1,985
  2,125
  2,196
  2,350
  2,511
  2,680
  2,857
  3,042
  3,237
  3,442
  3,657
  3,882
  4,119
  4,368
  4,629
  4,904
  5,193
  5,496
  5,815
  6,151
  6,504
  6,874
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -75
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -193
  -203
  -212
  -223
  -233
  -245
  -257
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  980
  1,084
  1,184
  1,289
  1,398
  1,512
  1,631
  1,755
  1,885
  2,021
  2,088
  2,237
  2,393
  2,557
  2,728
  2,908
  3,097
  3,295
  3,503
  3,721
  3,951
  4,191
  4,445
  4,711
  4,990
  5,284
  5,593
  5,918
  6,259
  6,618
Discount rate, %
  9.90
  10.40
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.64
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.13
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.83
  25.02
  26.27
  27.58
  28.96
  30.41
  31.93
  33.52
  35.20
  36.96
  38.81
  40.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  892
  889
  868
  835
  792
  740
  682
  618
  552
  484
  403
  342
  285
  233
  186
  146
  111
  83
  60
  43
  29
  20
  13
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Hanesbrands Inc. is a marketer of basic innerwear and activewear apparel in the Americas, Europe, Australia and Asia/Pacific under apparel brands, such as Hanes, Champion, Maidenform, DIM, Bali, Playtex, Bonds, JMS/Just My Size, Nur Die/Nur Der, L'eggs, Lovable, Wonderbra, Flexees, Gear for Sports and Berlei. The Company operates through four segments: Innerwear, Activewear, Direct to Consumer and International. The Innerwear segment focuses on core apparel products, such as intimate apparel, men's underwear, women's panties, children's underwear, socks and hosiery. The Company operates in the activewear market through its Champion, Hanes and JMS/Just My Size brands. The Direct to Consumer segment operations include its domestic Company-operated outlet stores and Website operations that sell its branded products directly to consumers in the United States. The International segment includes products that primarily span across the innerwear and activewear segments.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hanesbrands Inc. (HBI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9.9
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 4.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 286.6%
Total Debt to Equity 305.7%
Interest Coverage 572
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Return On Total Capital 12.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Return On Equity 43.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.4%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.9%
EBITDA Margin 11.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Operating Margin 12.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Net Profit Margin 8.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Effective Tax Rate 6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Payout Ratio 31%

HBI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HBI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6804 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hanesbrands Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Hanesbrands Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HBI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.9%, whose default value for HBI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hanesbrands Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hanesbrands Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HBI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1116 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HBI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Hanesbrands Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hanesbrands Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HBI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HBI are equal to 28.8%.

Life of production assets of 25 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hanesbrands Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HBI is equal to 22.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $970.283 million for Hanesbrands Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 361.316 million for Hanesbrands Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hanesbrands Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.1 billion.

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