Intrinsic value of Hanesbrands - HBI

Previous Close

$14.78

  Intrinsic Value

$16.81

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+14%

Previous close

$14.78

 
Intrinsic value

$16.81

 
Up/down potential

+14%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of HBI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.57
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
Revenue, $m
  6,743
  7,032
  7,338
  7,662
  8,005
  8,367
  8,750
  9,154
  9,580
  10,030
  10,503
  11,002
  11,527
  12,080
  12,662
  13,274
  13,918
  14,595
  15,308
  16,057
  16,844
  17,671
  18,541
  19,455
  20,415
  21,424
  22,484
  23,598
  24,768
  25,997
Variable operating expenses, $m
  5,863
  6,102
  6,357
  6,626
  6,911
  7,213
  7,531
  7,867
  8,221
  8,594
  8,731
  9,146
  9,582
  10,042
  10,526
  11,035
  11,570
  12,133
  12,725
  13,348
  14,002
  14,690
  15,413
  16,173
  16,971
  17,810
  18,691
  19,617
  20,589
  21,611
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,863
  6,102
  6,357
  6,626
  6,911
  7,213
  7,531
  7,867
  8,221
  8,594
  8,731
  9,146
  9,582
  10,042
  10,526
  11,035
  11,570
  12,133
  12,725
  13,348
  14,002
  14,690
  15,413
  16,173
  16,971
  17,810
  18,691
  19,617
  20,589
  21,611
Operating income, $m
  881
  929
  981
  1,036
  1,094
  1,155
  1,219
  1,287
  1,359
  1,435
  1,772
  1,856
  1,945
  2,038
  2,136
  2,239
  2,348
  2,462
  2,583
  2,709
  2,842
  2,981
  3,128
  3,282
  3,444
  3,614
  3,793
  3,981
  4,179
  4,386
EBITDA, $m
  1,215
  1,267
  1,322
  1,380
  1,442
  1,507
  1,576
  1,649
  1,726
  1,807
  1,892
  1,982
  2,077
  2,176
  2,281
  2,391
  2,507
  2,629
  2,758
  2,893
  3,035
  3,184
  3,340
  3,505
  3,678
  3,860
  4,051
  4,251
  4,462
  4,684
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  214
  228
  243
  259
  275
  293
  312
  332
  353
  375
  398
  422
  448
  475
  504
  534
  566
  599
  634
  671
  710
  751
  793
  838
  886
  935
  988
  1,042
  1,100
  1,161
Earnings before tax, $m
  667
  702
  738
  777
  818
  862
  907
  956
  1,007
  1,060
  1,374
  1,434
  1,497
  1,563
  1,632
  1,705
  1,782
  1,863
  1,948
  2,038
  2,132
  2,231
  2,335
  2,444
  2,559
  2,679
  2,806
  2,939
  3,079
  3,225
Tax expense, $m
  180
  189
  199
  210
  221
  233
  245
  258
  272
  286
  371
  387
  404
  422
  441
  460
  481
  503
  526
  550
  576
  602
  630
  660
  691
  723
  758
  793
  831
  871
Net income, $m
  487
  512
  539
  567
  597
  629
  662
  698
  735
  774
  1,003
  1,047
  1,092
  1,141
  1,192
  1,245
  1,301
  1,360
  1,422
  1,488
  1,556
  1,628
  1,704
  1,784
  1,868
  1,956
  2,048
  2,145
  2,247
  2,354

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,181
  7,489
  7,815
  8,160
  8,525
  8,911
  9,318
  9,749
  10,203
  10,681
  11,185
  11,717
  12,276
  12,865
  13,484
  14,136
  14,822
  15,544
  16,302
  17,100
  17,938
  18,819
  19,745
  20,719
  21,741
  22,816
  23,945
  25,131
  26,377
  27,686
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,181
  7,489
  7,815
  8,160
  8,525
  8,911
  9,318
  9,749
  10,203
  10,681
  11,185
  11,717
  12,276
  12,865
  13,484
  14,136
  14,822
  15,544
  16,302
  17,100
  17,938
  18,819
  19,745
  20,719
  21,741
  22,816
  23,945
  25,131
  26,377
  27,686
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
  0.939
Average production assets, $m
  1,976
  2,060
  2,150
  2,245
  2,345
  2,452
  2,564
  2,682
  2,807
  2,939
  3,077
  3,224
  3,377
  3,539
  3,710
  3,889
  4,078
  4,276
  4,485
  4,705
  4,935
  5,178
  5,432
  5,700
  5,982
  6,277
  6,588
  6,914
  7,257
  7,617
Working capital, $m
  1,510
  1,575
  1,644
  1,716
  1,793
  1,874
  1,960
  2,051
  2,146
  2,247
  2,353
  2,464
  2,582
  2,706
  2,836
  2,973
  3,118
  3,269
  3,429
  3,597
  3,773
  3,958
  4,153
  4,358
  4,573
  4,799
  5,036
  5,286
  5,548
  5,823
Total debt, $m
  4,218
  4,495
  4,788
  5,099
  5,427
  5,775
  6,142
  6,529
  6,937
  7,368
  7,822
  8,300
  8,803
  9,333
  9,891
  10,478
  11,095
  11,744
  12,427
  13,145
  13,899
  14,692
  15,526
  16,402
  17,322
  18,289
  19,305
  20,373
  21,494
  22,672
Total liabilities, $m
  6,463
  6,740
  7,033
  7,344
  7,672
  8,020
  8,387
  8,774
  9,182
  9,613
  10,067
  10,545
  11,048
  11,578
  12,136
  12,723
  13,340
  13,989
  14,672
  15,390
  16,144
  16,937
  17,771
  18,647
  19,567
  20,534
  21,550
  22,618
  23,739
  24,917
Total equity, $m
  718
  749
  781
  816
  852
  891
  932
  975
  1,020
  1,068
  1,119
  1,172
  1,228
  1,286
  1,348
  1,414
  1,482
  1,554
  1,630
  1,710
  1,794
  1,882
  1,975
  2,072
  2,174
  2,282
  2,394
  2,513
  2,638
  2,769
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,181
  7,489
  7,814
  8,160
  8,524
  8,911
  9,319
  9,749
  10,202
  10,681
  11,186
  11,717
  12,276
  12,864
  13,484
  14,137
  14,822
  15,543
  16,302
  17,100
  17,938
  18,819
  19,746
  20,719
  21,741
  22,816
  23,944
  25,131
  26,377
  27,686
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.870
  6.000
  6.130
  6.250
  6.370
  6.480
  6.590
  6.700
  6.800
  6.900
  6.990
  7.080
  7.170
  7.250
  7.340
  7.410
  7.490
  7.560
  7.620
  7.690
  7.750
  7.810
  7.860
  7.920
  7.970
  8.020
  8.060
  8.110
  8.150
  8.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  487
  512
  539
  567
  597
  629
  662
  698
  735
  774
  1,003
  1,047
  1,092
  1,141
  1,192
  1,245
  1,301
  1,360
  1,422
  1,488
  1,556
  1,628
  1,704
  1,784
  1,868
  1,956
  2,048
  2,145
  2,247
  2,354
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  334
  337
  341
  345
  349
  353
  357
  362
  367
  372
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
  202
  212
  223
  234
  245
  257
  270
  283
  298
Funds from operations, $m
  821
  850
  880
  912
  946
  982
  1,020
  1,059
  1,102
  1,146
  1,123
  1,173
  1,224
  1,279
  1,336
  1,397
  1,460
  1,527
  1,598
  1,671
  1,749
  1,831
  1,917
  2,007
  2,101
  2,201
  2,306
  2,415
  2,531
  2,652
Change in working capital, $m
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  95
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  168
  176
  185
  195
  205
  215
  226
  237
  249
  262
  275
Cash from operations, $m
  760
  785
  811
  839
  869
  901
  934
  969
  1,006
  1,045
  1,017
  1,061
  1,107
  1,155
  1,206
  1,260
  1,316
  1,376
  1,438
  1,504
  1,573
  1,645
  1,722
  1,802
  1,886
  1,975
  2,068
  2,166
  2,269
  2,377
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -223
  -234
  -245
  -257
  -270
  -283
New CAPEX, $m
  -79
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -198
  -209
  -219
  -231
  -242
  -255
  -268
  -281
  -296
  -311
  -326
  -343
  -360
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -153
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -230
  -242
  -254
  -266
  -280
  -294
  -308
  -324
  -341
  -357
  -376
  -394
  -415
  -435
  -457
  -480
  -504
  -530
  -556
  -583
  -613
  -643
Free cash flow, $m
  607
  623
  641
  660
  681
  703
  726
  750
  776
  804
  764
  794
  827
  861
  897
  935
  976
  1,018
  1,062
  1,109
  1,158
  1,210
  1,265
  1,322
  1,382
  1,446
  1,512
  1,582
  1,656
  1,733
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  255
  277
  293
  311
  329
  347
  367
  387
  408
  431
  454
  478
  503
  530
  558
  587
  617
  649
  683
  718
  755
  793
  834
  876
  920
  967
  1,016
  1,067
  1,121
  1,178
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  255
  277
  293
  311
  329
  347
  367
  387
  408
  431
  454
  478
  503
  530
  558
  587
  617
  649
  683
  718
  755
  793
  834
  876
  920
  967
  1,016
  1,067
  1,121
  1,178
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  861
  900
  935
  971
  1,010
  1,050
  1,093
  1,138
  1,185
  1,235
  1,218
  1,273
  1,330
  1,391
  1,455
  1,522
  1,593
  1,667
  1,745
  1,827
  1,913
  2,003
  2,098
  2,198
  2,303
  2,413
  2,528
  2,650
  2,777
  2,911
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -32
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  829
  869
  902
  937
  973
  1,011
  1,052
  1,095
  1,140
  1,187
  1,167
  1,219
  1,274
  1,332
  1,393
  1,457
  1,524
  1,595
  1,669
  1,747
  1,829
  1,915
  2,006
  2,101
  2,200
  2,305
  2,415
  2,531
  2,653
  2,780
Discount rate, %
  10.30
  10.82
  11.36
  11.92
  12.52
  13.15
  13.80
  14.49
  15.22
  15.98
  16.78
  17.62
  18.50
  19.42
  20.39
  21.41
  22.48
  23.61
  24.79
  26.03
  27.33
  28.70
  30.13
  31.64
  33.22
  34.88
  36.62
  38.45
  40.38
  42.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  752
  708
  653
  597
  539
  482
  426
  371
  318
  270
  212
  174
  140
  111
  86
  65
  48
  35
  25
  17
  11
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Hanesbrands Inc. is a marketer of basic innerwear and activewear apparel in the Americas, Europe, Australia and Asia/Pacific under apparel brands, such as Hanes, Champion, Maidenform, DIM, Bali, Playtex, Bonds, JMS/Just My Size, Nur Die/Nur Der, L'eggs, Lovable, Wonderbra, Flexees, Gear for Sports and Berlei. The Company operates through four segments: Innerwear, Activewear, Direct to Consumer and International. The Innerwear segment focuses on core apparel products, such as intimate apparel, men's underwear, women's panties, children's underwear, socks and hosiery. The Company operates in the activewear market through its Champion, Hanes and JMS/Just My Size brands. The Direct to Consumer segment operations include its domestic Company-operated outlet stores and Website operations that sell its branded products directly to consumers in the United States. The International segment includes products that primarily span across the innerwear and activewear segments.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hanesbrands (HBI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.4
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 4.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 286.6%
Total Debt to Equity 305.7%
Interest Coverage 572
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Return On Total Capital 12.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Return On Equity 43.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.4%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.9%
EBITDA Margin 11.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Operating Margin 12.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Net Profit Margin 8.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Effective Tax Rate 6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Payout Ratio 31%

HBI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HBI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6471.41 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hanesbrands. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Hanesbrands. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HBI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.3%, whose default value for HBI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hanesbrands, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hanesbrands.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HBI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HBI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Hanesbrands.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hanesbrands. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HBI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HBI are equal to 29.3%.

Life of production assets of 25.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hanesbrands operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HBI is equal to 22.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $686.202 million for Hanesbrands - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 360.507 million for Hanesbrands is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hanesbrands at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.3 billion.

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