Intrinsic value of HC2 Holdings, Inc. - HCHC

Previous Close

$2.85

  Intrinsic Value

$5.53

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+94%

Previous close

$2.85

 
Intrinsic value

$5.53

 
Up/down potential

+94%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of HCHC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.50
  13.55
  12.70
  11.93
  11.23
  10.61
  10.05
  9.54
  9.09
  8.68
  8.31
  7.98
  7.68
  7.41
  7.17
  6.96
  6.76
  6.58
  6.43
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.94
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
Revenue, $m
  2,264
  2,570
  2,897
  3,242
  3,606
  3,989
  4,390
  4,809
  5,246
  5,701
  6,175
  6,668
  7,180
  7,713
  8,266
  8,841
  9,439
  10,060
  10,706
  11,379
  12,080
  12,809
  13,569
  14,362
  15,189
  16,052
  16,953
  17,895
  18,878
  19,907
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,260
  2,561
  2,881
  3,220
  3,578
  3,953
  4,346
  4,758
  5,186
  5,633
  6,059
  6,543
  7,045
  7,568
  8,111
  8,675
  9,261
  9,871
  10,505
  11,166
  11,853
  12,569
  13,315
  14,092
  14,904
  15,751
  16,635
  17,559
  18,524
  19,533
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,260
  2,561
  2,881
  3,220
  3,578
  3,953
  4,346
  4,758
  5,186
  5,633
  6,059
  6,543
  7,045
  7,568
  8,111
  8,675
  9,261
  9,871
  10,505
  11,166
  11,853
  12,569
  13,315
  14,092
  14,904
  15,751
  16,635
  17,559
  18,524
  19,533
Operating income, $m
  3
  9
  15
  22
  29
  36
  43
  51
  59
  68
  116
  125
  135
  145
  155
  166
  177
  189
  201
  214
  227
  241
  255
  270
  285
  301
  318
  336
  354
  374
EBITDA, $m
  77
  87
  98
  110
  122
  135
  149
  163
  177
  193
  209
  226
  243
  261
  280
  299
  319
  340
  362
  385
  409
  433
  459
  486
  514
  543
  574
  605
  639
  674
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  84
  116
  219
  328
  444
  566
  694
  828
  968
  1,114
  1,266
  1,425
  1,590
  1,761
  1,939
  2,124
  2,317
  2,517
  2,725
  2,941
  3,166
  3,400
  3,644
  3,899
  4,164
  4,440
  4,729
  5,031
  5,346
  5,675
Earnings before tax, $m
  -81
  -107
  -204
  -306
  -415
  -530
  -650
  -776
  -908
  -1,046
  -1,150
  -1,300
  -1,455
  -1,616
  -1,784
  -1,958
  -2,139
  -2,328
  -2,524
  -2,727
  -2,939
  -3,160
  -3,389
  -3,629
  -3,879
  -4,139
  -4,411
  -4,695
  -4,991
  -5,301
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -81
  -107
  -204
  -306
  -415
  -530
  -650
  -776
  -908
  -1,046
  -1,150
  -1,300
  -1,455
  -1,616
  -1,784
  -1,958
  -2,139
  -2,328
  -2,524
  -2,727
  -2,939
  -3,160
  -3,389
  -3,629
  -3,879
  -4,139
  -4,411
  -4,695
  -4,991
  -5,301

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,446
  8,455
  9,529
  10,665
  11,863
  13,122
  14,440
  15,818
  17,256
  18,754
  20,313
  21,934
  23,619
  25,371
  27,191
  29,082
  31,048
  33,092
  35,219
  37,432
  39,736
  42,135
  44,636
  47,244
  49,964
  52,803
  55,767
  58,864
  62,100
  65,482
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,446
  8,455
  9,529
  10,665
  11,863
  13,122
  14,440
  15,818
  17,256
  18,754
  20,313
  21,934
  23,619
  25,371
  27,191
  29,082
  31,048
  33,092
  35,219
  37,432
  39,736
  42,135
  44,636
  47,244
  49,964
  52,803
  55,767
  58,864
  62,100
  65,482
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
  0.304
Average production assets, $m
  613
  697
  785
  879
  977
  1,081
  1,190
  1,303
  1,422
  1,545
  1,673
  1,807
  1,946
  2,090
  2,240
  2,396
  2,558
  2,726
  2,901
  3,084
  3,274
  3,471
  3,677
  3,892
  4,116
  4,350
  4,594
  4,849
  5,116
  5,395
Working capital, $m
  27
  31
  35
  39
  43
  48
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  93
  99
  106
  113
  121
  128
  137
  145
  154
  163
  172
  182
  193
  203
  215
  227
  239
Total debt, $m
  1,030
  1,938
  2,904
  3,927
  5,005
  6,138
  7,324
  8,565
  9,859
  11,207
  12,610
  14,069
  15,586
  17,162
  18,800
  20,502
  22,271
  24,111
  26,025
  28,017
  30,090
  32,250
  34,501
  36,848
  39,296
  41,851
  44,519
  47,306
  50,218
  53,262
Total liabilities, $m
  6,702
  7,610
  8,576
  9,598
  10,677
  11,809
  12,996
  14,236
  15,530
  16,879
  18,282
  19,741
  21,257
  22,834
  24,471
  26,174
  27,943
  29,783
  31,697
  33,688
  35,762
  37,922
  40,173
  42,520
  44,968
  47,523
  50,191
  52,977
  55,890
  58,934
Total equity, $m
  745
  846
  953
  1,066
  1,186
  1,312
  1,444
  1,582
  1,726
  1,875
  2,031
  2,193
  2,362
  2,537
  2,719
  2,908
  3,105
  3,309
  3,522
  3,743
  3,974
  4,214
  4,464
  4,724
  4,996
  5,280
  5,577
  5,886
  6,210
  6,548
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,447
  8,456
  9,529
  10,664
  11,863
  13,121
  14,440
  15,818
  17,256
  18,754
  20,313
  21,934
  23,619
  25,371
  27,190
  29,082
  31,048
  33,092
  35,219
  37,431
  39,736
  42,136
  44,637
  47,244
  49,964
  52,803
  55,768
  58,863
  62,100
  65,482
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.380
  2.290
  3.050
  3.680
  4.220
  4.680
  5.070
  5.410
  5.710
  5.980
  6.210
  6.410
  6.600
  6.760
  6.910
  7.050
  7.170
  7.290
  7.390
  7.480
  7.570
  7.650
  7.730
  7.800
  7.860
  7.930
  7.980
  8.040
  8.090
  8.130
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -81
  -107
  -204
  -306
  -415
  -530
  -650
  -776
  -908
  -1,046
  -1,150
  -1,300
  -1,455
  -1,616
  -1,784
  -1,958
  -2,139
  -2,328
  -2,524
  -2,727
  -2,939
  -3,160
  -3,389
  -3,629
  -3,879
  -4,139
  -4,411
  -4,695
  -4,991
  -5,301
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  73
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  93
  100
  108
  116
  124
  133
  142
  151
  161
  171
  182
  193
  204
  216
  229
  242
  255
  269
  284
  300
Funds from operations, $m
  -7
  -29
  -121
  -218
  -322
  -431
  -545
  -665
  -790
  -921
  -1,057
  -1,199
  -1,347
  -1,500
  -1,660
  -1,825
  -1,997
  -2,176
  -2,362
  -2,556
  -2,757
  -2,967
  -3,185
  -3,413
  -3,650
  -3,897
  -4,156
  -4,425
  -4,707
  -5,001
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Cash from operations, $m
  -11
  -33
  -125
  -223
  -326
  -435
  -550
  -670
  -796
  -927
  -1,063
  -1,205
  -1,353
  -1,507
  -1,666
  -1,832
  -2,005
  -2,184
  -2,370
  -2,564
  -2,766
  -2,976
  -3,194
  -3,422
  -3,660
  -3,908
  -4,166
  -4,436
  -4,719
  -5,013
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -60
  -66
  -72
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -108
  -116
  -124
  -133
  -142
  -151
  -161
  -171
  -182
  -193
  -204
  -216
  -229
  -242
  -255
  -269
  -284
New CAPEX, $m
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -168
  -175
  -182
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -215
  -224
  -234
  -244
  -255
  -267
  -279
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -108
  -117
  -127
  -138
  -148
  -158
  -169
  -180
  -190
  -202
  -214
  -227
  -239
  -252
  -266
  -280
  -295
  -310
  -326
  -343
  -361
  -380
  -399
  -419
  -440
  -463
  -486
  -510
  -536
  -563
Free cash flow, $m
  -119
  -150
  -252
  -360
  -474
  -593
  -719
  -850
  -986
  -1,129
  -1,277
  -1,432
  -1,592
  -1,759
  -1,932
  -2,112
  -2,300
  -2,494
  -2,697
  -2,907
  -3,127
  -3,355
  -3,593
  -3,841
  -4,100
  -4,370
  -4,652
  -4,947
  -5,255
  -5,576
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  286
  908
  966
  1,023
  1,078
  1,133
  1,187
  1,240
  1,294
  1,348
  1,403
  1,459
  1,517
  1,576
  1,638
  1,702
  1,769
  1,840
  1,914
  1,992
  2,074
  2,160
  2,251
  2,347
  2,448
  2,555
  2,668
  2,787
  2,912
  3,045
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  737
  208
  311
  420
  535
  656
  782
  914
  1,052
  1,196
  1,306
  1,462
  1,623
  1,791
  1,966
  2,147
  2,336
  2,532
  2,736
  2,948
  3,169
  3,400
  3,640
  3,890
  4,151
  4,423
  4,707
  5,004
  5,315
  5,639
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,023
  1,116
  1,277
  1,443
  1,613
  1,789
  1,969
  2,154
  2,346
  2,544
  2,709
  2,921
  3,140
  3,367
  3,604
  3,849
  4,105
  4,372
  4,650
  4,940
  5,243
  5,560
  5,891
  6,237
  6,599
  6,978
  7,375
  7,791
  8,227
  8,684
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  904
  966
  1,025
  1,083
  1,140
  1,195
  1,250
  1,305
  1,360
  1,415
  1,432
  1,489
  1,548
  1,609
  1,672
  1,737
  1,806
  1,878
  1,953
  2,033
  2,116
  2,204
  2,297
  2,395
  2,499
  2,608
  2,723
  2,844
  2,972
  3,107
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -737
  -208
  -311
  -420
  -535
  -656
  -782
  -914
  -1,052
  -1,196
  -1,306
  -1,462
  -1,623
  -1,791
  -1,966
  -2,147
  -2,336
  -2,532
  -2,736
  -2,948
  -3,169
  -3,400
  -3,640
  -3,890
  -4,151
  -4,423
  -4,707
  -5,004
  -5,315
  -5,639
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  167
  758
  714
  663
  605
  540
  468
  391
  308
  219
  126
  27
  -76
  -183
  -294
  -410
  -530
  -654
  -783
  -916
  -1,053
  -1,195
  -1,342
  -1,494
  -1,652
  -1,815
  -1,984
  -2,160
  -2,342
  -2,532
Discount rate, %
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  156
  659
  573
  487
  404
  325
  252
  186
  128
  79
  39
  7
  -17
  -33
  -43
  -48
  -49
  -47
  -42
  -37
  -31
  -25
  -20
  -15
  -11
  -8
  -5
  -4
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  14.8
  12.4
  9.9
  7.6
  5.7
  4.1
  2.9
  2.0
  1.4
  0.9
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

HC2 Holdings, Inc. is a holding company. The Company operates through seven segments: Manufacturing (Schuff), Marine Services (GMSL), Insurance, Telecommunications (PTGi-ICS), Utilities, Life Sciences and Other. Schuff fabricates and erects structural steel for commercial and industrial construction projects, such as high- and low-rise buildings and office complexes, hospitals, dams, bridges, mines and power plants. GMSL is an offshore engineering company focused on specialist subsea services across the market sectors, such as telecommunications, oil and gas, and offshore power. The Insurance segment, CIG, provides long-term care, life and annuity coverage to approximately 99,000 individuals through its Insurance Companies. The PTGi-ICS business unit provides customers with Internet-based protocol and time-division multiplexing (TDM) access and transport of long distance voice minutes. The Life Sciences segment focuses on the development of technologies and products in healthcare. _tck('aft');

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  HC2 Holdings, Inc. (HCHC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0.4
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -2
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -23.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -59.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 61.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.8%
Return On Total Capital 89.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.4%
Return On Equity 182.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 57.1%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 4.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
EBITDA Margin 3.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Operating Margin -16.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -10.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.3%
Net Profit Margin 48.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Effective Tax Rate 28%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Payout Ratio 108%

HCHC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HCHC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1977 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by HC2 Holdings, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of HC2 Holdings, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HCHC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for HCHC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of HC2 Holdings, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of HC2 Holdings, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HCHC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 100.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HCHC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 11.3% for HC2 Holdings, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for HC2 Holdings, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HCHC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HCHC are equal to 27.1%.

Life of production assets of 18 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in HC2 Holdings, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HCHC is equal to 1.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $88.1 million for HC2 Holdings, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 44.973 million for HC2 Holdings, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of HC2 Holdings, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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