Intrinsic value of Hardinge - HDNG

Previous Close

$17.16

  Intrinsic Value

$2.88

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-83%

Previous close

$17.16

 
Intrinsic value

$2.88

 
Up/down potential

-83%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HDNG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.30
  11.40
  10.76
  10.18
  9.67
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.75
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
Revenue, $m
  292
  325
  360
  397
  435
  475
  517
  561
  606
  653
  702
  752
  805
  860
  917
  976
  1,038
  1,102
  1,169
  1,238
  1,311
  1,387
  1,466
  1,548
  1,635
  1,725
  1,819
  1,917
  2,020
  2,128
  2,241
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  297
  329
  363
  398
  434
  472
  512
  553
  596
  640
  686
  734
  784
  836
  890
  946
  1,005
  1,065
  1,129
  1,195
  1,264
  1,336
  1,412
  1,490
  1,572
  1,658
  1,748
  1,842
  1,940
  2,043
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
Total operating expenses, $m
  289
  321
  353
  388
  423
  460
  499
  539
  581
  625
  669
  716
  765
  816
  868
  923
  980
  1,040
  1,101
  1,166
  1,233
  1,303
  1,376
  1,453
  1,532
  1,615
  1,702
  1,793
  1,888
  1,987
  2,091
Operating income, $m
  3
  4
  7
  10
  12
  15
  18
  22
  25
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  73
  78
  84
  90
  96
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  150
EBITDA, $m
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  30
  34
  38
  43
  48
  53
  58
  63
  69
  75
  81
  87
  94
  101
  108
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  159
  169
  180
  191
  202
  214
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
Earnings before tax, $m
  3
  4
  6
  8
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
Tax expense, $m
  2
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
Net income, $m
  1
  3
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  298
  301
  333
  367
  403
  440
  478
  519
  560
  604
  649
  696
  745
  795
  848
  903
  960
  1,019
  1,081
  1,146
  1,213
  1,283
  1,356
  1,432
  1,512
  1,595
  1,683
  1,774
  1,869
  1,969
  2,073
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  270
  301
  333
  367
  403
  440
  478
  519
  560
  604
  649
  696
  745
  795
  848
  903
  960
  1,019
  1,081
  1,146
  1,213
  1,283
  1,356
  1,432
  1,512
  1,595
  1,683
  1,774
  1,869
  1,969
  2,073
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.081
  1.080
  1.081
  1.082
  1.079
  1.080
  1.082
  1.081
  1.082
  1.081
  1.082
  1.080
  1.081
  1.082
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.080
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.082
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
  1.081
Average production assets, $m
  87
  97
  107
  118
  130
  142
  154
  167
  181
  195
  209
  224
  240
  256
  273
  291
  309
  328
  348
  369
  391
  413
  437
  461
  487
  514
  542
  571
  602
  634
  668
Working capital, $m
  128
  115
  127
  140
  154
  168
  183
  198
  214
  230
  248
  266
  284
  304
  324
  345
  366
  389
  413
  437
  463
  490
  517
  547
  577
  609
  642
  677
  713
  751
  791
Total debt, $m
  6
  19
  36
  53
  71
  90
  110
  131
  153
  175
  198
  222
  248
  274
  301
  329
  358
  389
  421
  454
  489
  525
  562
  602
  643
  686
  731
  777
  827
  878
  932
Total liabilities, $m
  142
  155
  172
  189
  207
  226
  246
  267
  289
  311
  334
  358
  384
  410
  437
  465
  494
  525
  557
  590
  625
  661
  698
  738
  779
  822
  867
  913
  963
  1,014
  1,068
Total equity, $m
  156
  146
  162
  178
  195
  213
  232
  252
  272
  293
  315
  338
  361
  386
  411
  438
  466
  494
  524
  556
  588
  622
  658
  695
  733
  774
  816
  860
  906
  955
  1,005
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  298
  301
  334
  367
  402
  439
  478
  519
  561
  604
  649
  696
  745
  796
  848
  903
  960
  1,019
  1,081
  1,146
  1,213
  1,283
  1,356
  1,433
  1,512
  1,596
  1,683
  1,773
  1,869
  1,969
  2,073
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.038
  0.130
  0.220
  0.300
  0.370
  0.420
  0.480
  0.520
  0.560
  0.600
  0.630
  0.660
  0.690
  0.710
  0.730
  0.750
  0.770
  0.790
  0.800
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.474
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1
  3
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
Funds from operations, $m
  -1
  13
  16
  18
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  89
  94
  100
  107
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  151
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
Cash from operations, $m
  5
  1
  3
  5
  7
  10
  12
  14
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  87
  93
  99
  105
  111
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -35
  -38
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
Free cash flow, $m
  3
  -17
  -16
  -16
  -15
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -2
  -1
  0
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -5
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  12
  11
  10
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  4
  3
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -5
  28
  28
  27
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  26
  26
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -4
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  5
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  21
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  20
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.1
  89.3
  85.5
  82.4
  79.9
  77.9
  76.4
  75.3
  74.4
  73.9
  73.7
  73.7
  73.7
  73.7
  73.7
  73.7
  73.7
  73.7
  73.7
  73.7
  73.7
  73.7
  73.7
  73.7
  73.7
  73.7
  73.7
  73.7
  73.7
  73.7

Hardinge Inc. (Hardinge) is a designer, manufacturer and distributor of machine tools, specializing in precision computer numerically controlled metalcutting machines and workholding technology solutions. The Company supplies high precision computer controlled metalcutting turning machines, grinding machines, machining centers and repair parts related to those machines. It also engineers and supplies high precision, standard and specialty workholding devices, and other machine tool accessories. It operates through two segments: Metalcutting Machine Solutions (MMS), and Aftermarket Tooling and Accessories (ATA). The MMS segment includes high precision computer controlled metalcutting turning machines, vertical machining centers, horizontal machining centers, and grinding machines. The ATA segment includes products, primarily collets and chucks that are purchased by manufacturers throughout the lives of their Hardinge or other branded machines.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hardinge (HDNG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 221.2
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 44.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 73.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 1.9%
Total Debt to Equity 3.8%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Return On Total Capital 0.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Return On Equity 0.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.1%
EBITDA Margin 4.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Operating Margin 1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Net Profit Margin 0.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Effective Tax Rate 66.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.8%
Payout Ratio 100%

HDNG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HDNG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $292 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hardinge. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Hardinge. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HDNG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HDNG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hardinge, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hardinge.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HDNG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $23 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HDNG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Hardinge.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hardinge. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HDNG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HDNG are equal to 29.8%.

Life of production assets of 10.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hardinge operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HDNG is equal to 35.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $156 million for Hardinge - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 12.949 million for Hardinge is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hardinge at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Hardinge Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-09-17 09:10AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Hardinge posts 3Q profit   [06:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Hardinge, Inc. : November 6, 2017   [Nov-06-17 11:45AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Hardinge Inc. to Review Indication of Interest from Privet   [Nov-02-17 01:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Hardinge, Inc. : October 11, 2017   [Oct-11-17 11:38AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Hardinge, Inc. : September 25, 2017   [Sep-25-17 10:39AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Hardinge posts 2Q profit   [Aug-03-17 10:30PM  Associated Press]
▶ Hardinge Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [06:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Hardinge, Inc. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 04:06PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Investor Network: Hardinge Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [May-05-17 09:15AM  Accesswire]
▶ Hardinge reports 1Q loss   [06:37AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hardinge Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [06:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Hardinge Inc. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [May-03-17 04:41PM  Business Wire]
▶ Hardinge posts 4Q profit   [09:22AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hardinge Reports Third Quarter 2016 Results   [06:55AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hardinge Inc. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Oct-31-16 09:25AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hardinge Reports Second Quarter 2016 Results   [06:55AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hardinge Inc. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Aug-03-16 05:13PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hardinge Reports First Quarter 2016 Results   [06:55AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hardinge Inc. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [May-09-16 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of HDNG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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