Intrinsic value of Hortonworks - HDP

Previous Close

$15.73

  Intrinsic Value

$5.41

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-66%

Previous close

$15.73

 
Intrinsic value

$5.41

 
Up/down potential

-66%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HDP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  39.60
  36.14
  33.03
  30.22
  27.70
  25.43
  23.39
  21.55
  19.89
  18.40
  17.06
  15.86
  14.77
  13.79
  12.92
  12.12
  11.41
  10.77
  10.19
  9.67
  9.21
  8.79
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.48
  7.24
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
Revenue, $m
  365
  498
  662
  862
  1,101
  1,381
  1,704
  2,071
  2,483
  2,939
  3,441
  3,987
  4,576
  5,207
  5,879
  6,592
  7,345
  8,136
  8,965
  9,832
  10,737
  11,681
  12,663
  13,684
  14,746
  15,850
  16,996
  18,188
  19,427
  20,715
Variable operating expenses, $m
  171
  232
  307
  399
  509
  637
  786
  954
  1,143
  1,353
  1,580
  1,830
  2,100
  2,390
  2,699
  3,026
  3,371
  3,734
  4,115
  4,513
  4,929
  5,362
  5,813
  6,281
  6,769
  7,275
  7,802
  8,349
  8,918
  9,509
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  365
  373
  381
  389
  398
  407
  416
  425
  434
  444
  454
  464
  474
  484
  495
  506
  517
  528
  540
  552
  564
  576
  589
  602
  615
  629
  642
  657
  671
  686
Total operating expenses, $m
  536
  605
  688
  788
  907
  1,044
  1,202
  1,379
  1,577
  1,797
  2,034
  2,294
  2,574
  2,874
  3,194
  3,532
  3,888
  4,262
  4,655
  5,065
  5,493
  5,938
  6,402
  6,883
  7,384
  7,904
  8,444
  9,006
  9,589
  10,195
Operating income, $m
  -171
  -107
  -27
  73
  194
  336
  502
  692
  905
  1,143
  1,408
  1,693
  2,002
  2,333
  2,686
  3,061
  3,456
  3,873
  4,310
  4,767
  5,245
  5,743
  6,261
  6,801
  7,362
  7,946
  8,552
  9,183
  9,838
  10,520
EBITDA, $m
  -158
  -92
  -7
  98
  224
  374
  547
  746
  969
  1,218
  1,492
  1,790
  2,113
  2,460
  2,829
  3,221
  3,635
  4,071
  4,529
  5,007
  5,507
  6,027
  6,570
  7,135
  7,722
  8,332
  8,967
  9,626
  10,312
  11,025
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  6
  14
  23
  34
  47
  62
  79
  98
  120
  143
  168
  196
  225
  256
  290
  325
  361
  400
  440
  482
  526
  572
  619
  669
  720
  773
  829
  886
Earnings before tax, $m
  -171
  -107
  -33
  59
  171
  302
  455
  629
  826
  1,044
  1,288
  1,550
  1,833
  2,137
  2,461
  2,804
  3,167
  3,548
  3,949
  4,367
  4,805
  5,260
  5,735
  6,229
  6,743
  7,277
  7,832
  8,409
  9,010
  9,634
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  16
  46
  82
  123
  170
  223
  282
  348
  419
  495
  577
  664
  757
  855
  958
  1,066
  1,179
  1,297
  1,420
  1,548
  1,682
  1,821
  1,965
  2,115
  2,270
  2,433
  2,601
Net income, $m
  -171
  -107
  -33
  43
  125
  221
  332
  459
  603
  762
  940
  1,132
  1,338
  1,560
  1,796
  2,047
  2,312
  2,590
  2,882
  3,188
  3,507
  3,840
  4,187
  4,547
  4,922
  5,312
  5,717
  6,139
  6,577
  7,033

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  350
  476
  633
  825
  1,053
  1,321
  1,630
  1,981
  2,376
  2,813
  3,293
  3,815
  4,379
  4,983
  5,626
  6,308
  7,028
  7,785
  8,579
  9,409
  10,275
  11,178
  12,117
  13,095
  14,111
  15,167
  16,264
  17,405
  18,590
  19,823
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  350
  476
  633
  825
  1,053
  1,321
  1,630
  1,981
  2,376
  2,813
  3,293
  3,815
  4,379
  4,983
  5,626
  6,308
  7,028
  7,785
  8,579
  9,409
  10,275
  11,178
  12,117
  13,095
  14,111
  15,167
  16,264
  17,405
  18,590
  19,823
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.043
  1.046
  1.046
  1.045
  1.046
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
Average production assets, $m
  51
  69
  92
  120
  153
  192
  237
  288
  345
  409
  478
  554
  636
  724
  817
  916
  1,021
  1,131
  1,246
  1,367
  1,492
  1,624
  1,760
  1,902
  2,050
  2,203
  2,362
  2,528
  2,700
  2,879
Working capital, $m
  -157
  -213
  -284
  -370
  -472
  -592
  -731
  -888
  -1,065
  -1,261
  -1,476
  -1,710
  -1,963
  -2,234
  -2,522
  -2,828
  -3,151
  -3,490
  -3,846
  -4,218
  -4,606
  -5,011
  -5,432
  -5,870
  -6,326
  -6,799
  -7,291
  -7,803
  -8,334
  -8,887
Total debt, $m
  -1
  113
  254
  427
  632
  873
  1,151
  1,468
  1,822
  2,216
  2,648
  3,118
  3,625
  4,169
  4,748
  5,362
  6,010
  6,691
  7,405
  8,152
  8,932
  9,744
  10,590
  11,470
  12,384
  13,335
  14,322
  15,349
  16,416
  17,525
Total liabilities, $m
  315
  429
  570
  742
  948
  1,189
  1,467
  1,783
  2,138
  2,532
  2,964
  3,434
  3,941
  4,484
  5,064
  5,678
  6,325
  7,007
  7,721
  8,468
  9,247
  10,060
  10,906
  11,785
  12,700
  13,650
  14,638
  15,664
  16,731
  17,841
Total equity, $m
  35
  48
  63
  82
  105
  132
  163
  198
  238
  281
  329
  382
  438
  498
  563
  631
  703
  779
  858
  941
  1,027
  1,118
  1,212
  1,309
  1,411
  1,517
  1,626
  1,740
  1,859
  1,982
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  350
  477
  633
  824
  1,053
  1,321
  1,630
  1,981
  2,376
  2,813
  3,293
  3,816
  4,379
  4,982
  5,627
  6,309
  7,028
  7,786
  8,579
  9,409
  10,274
  11,178
  12,118
  13,094
  14,111
  15,167
  16,264
  17,404
  18,590
  19,823
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -0.030
  2.370
  4.010
  5.170
  6.000
  6.610
  7.060
  7.410
  7.670
  7.880
  8.040
  8.170
  8.280
  8.370
  8.440
  8.500
  8.550
  8.590
  8.630
  8.660
  8.690
  8.720
  8.740
  8.760
  8.780
  8.790
  8.810
  8.820
  8.830
  8.840
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -171
  -107
  -33
  43
  125
  221
  332
  459
  603
  762
  940
  1,132
  1,338
  1,560
  1,796
  2,047
  2,312
  2,590
  2,882
  3,188
  3,507
  3,840
  4,187
  4,547
  4,922
  5,312
  5,717
  6,139
  6,577
  7,033
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  16
  20
  25
  30
  37
  45
  54
  64
  75
  84
  97
  112
  127
  143
  161
  179
  198
  219
  240
  262
  285
  309
  334
  360
  387
  414
  444
  474
  505
Funds from operations, $m
  -158
  -92
  -13
  68
  155
  258
  377
  514
  667
  838
  1,024
  1,229
  1,450
  1,687
  1,940
  2,208
  2,491
  2,789
  3,101
  3,428
  3,769
  4,125
  4,495
  4,881
  5,282
  5,699
  6,132
  6,582
  7,051
  7,538
Change in working capital, $m
  -44
  -57
  -70
  -86
  -102
  -120
  -139
  -157
  -177
  -196
  -215
  -234
  -253
  -271
  -289
  -306
  -323
  -339
  -356
  -372
  -388
  -405
  -421
  -438
  -456
  -473
  -492
  -511
  -531
  -553
Cash from operations, $m
  -114
  -35
  58
  154
  258
  378
  516
  671
  844
  1,034
  1,240
  1,463
  1,702
  1,958
  2,228
  2,514
  2,814
  3,128
  3,457
  3,800
  4,157
  4,530
  4,917
  5,319
  5,737
  6,172
  6,624
  7,094
  7,582
  8,090
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -9
  -12
  -16
  -21
  -27
  -34
  -42
  -50
  -61
  -72
  -84
  -97
  -112
  -127
  -143
  -161
  -179
  -198
  -219
  -240
  -262
  -285
  -309
  -334
  -360
  -387
  -414
  -444
  -474
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -18
  -23
  -28
  -33
  -39
  -45
  -51
  -57
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -172
  -179
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -20
  -27
  -35
  -44
  -54
  -66
  -79
  -93
  -107
  -125
  -142
  -160
  -179
  -200
  -220
  -242
  -266
  -289
  -313
  -340
  -366
  -393
  -422
  -451
  -482
  -513
  -546
  -580
  -616
  -653
Free cash flow, $m
  -135
  -62
  23
  110
  203
  312
  437
  579
  736
  910
  1,098
  1,303
  1,523
  1,758
  2,008
  2,271
  2,548
  2,839
  3,143
  3,461
  3,792
  4,137
  4,495
  4,868
  5,256
  5,659
  6,078
  6,513
  6,966
  7,438
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  114
  142
  172
  206
  241
  278
  316
  355
  394
  432
  470
  507
  544
  579
  614
  648
  681
  714
  747
  780
  812
  846
  880
  915
  950
  988
  1,026
  1,067
  1,109
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  271
  120
  48
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  270
  234
  190
  172
  206
  241
  278
  316
  355
  394
  432
  470
  507
  544
  579
  614
  648
  681
  714
  747
  780
  812
  846
  880
  915
  950
  988
  1,026
  1,067
  1,109
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  135
  172
  213
  282
  409
  553
  715
  895
  1,091
  1,303
  1,530
  1,773
  2,031
  2,302
  2,587
  2,885
  3,196
  3,520
  3,857
  4,208
  4,571
  4,949
  5,341
  5,748
  6,171
  6,609
  7,066
  7,540
  8,033
  8,547
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -271
  -120
  -48
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -123
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -136
  52
  164
  263
  386
  527
  685
  860
  1,051
  1,259
  1,482
  1,721
  1,974
  2,242
  2,523
  2,817
  3,124
  3,445
  3,778
  4,125
  4,485
  4,859
  5,247
  5,650
  6,069
  6,504
  6,956
  7,426
  7,915
  8,424
Discount rate, %
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -128
  46
  137
  205
  278
  348
  412
  469
  514
  548
  567
  574
  568
  550
  521
  484
  440
  392
  342
  292
  245
  200
  160
  125
  96
  71
  52
  36
  25
  17
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  11.3
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6
  5.6

Hortonworks, Inc. is a provider and distributor of enterprise-scale data management software platforms. The Company's product offerings include Hortonworks Data Platform (HDP), Hortonworks Sandbox and Hortonworks DataFlow Platform (HDF). It provides support subscription offerings and related professional services for its enterprise-scale Connected Data Platforms, such as HDP and HDF. Its Data at Rest solution, the HDP, is an enterprise-scale data management platform built entirely on open source software, including Apache Hadoop. HDP combines computer servers with local storage and open source software technology to create a distributed compute and storage platform for data sets that is secure and scalable over petabytes of data within thousands of servers or nodes. Its Data in Motion solution, the HDF, is an enterprise-scale data ingest platform built entirely on open source software, including Apache NiFi.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hortonworks (HDP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.8
Price to Sales 5.2
Price to Book 87.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -11.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -10.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 50.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 67%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -112.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -101.1%
Return On Total Capital -638%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -329%
Return On Equity -638%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -329%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 60.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
EBITDA Margin -131.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -219.6%
Operating Margin -137%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -220.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -135.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -223.2%
Net Profit Margin -137%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -222.8%
Effective Tax Rate -0.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

HDP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HDP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $261.81 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hortonworks. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Hortonworks. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HDP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 39.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for HDP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hortonworks, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hortonworks.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HDP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 47.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $357 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HDP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Hortonworks.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hortonworks. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HDP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HDP are equal to 13.9%.

Life of production assets of 5.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hortonworks operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HDP is equal to -42.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-65.036 million for Hortonworks - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 79.049 million for Hortonworks is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hortonworks at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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