Intrinsic value of Turtle Beach - HEAR

Previous Close

$15.09

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$15.09

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HEAR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  239
  369
  551
  800
  1,129
  1,552
  2,083
  2,735
  3,519
  4,445
  5,519
  6,748
  8,133
  9,677
  11,379
  13,236
  15,247
  17,408
  19,715
  22,166
  24,756
  27,484
  30,347
  33,343
  36,473
  39,737
  43,136
  46,672
  50,349
  54,171
Variable operating expenses, $m
  346
  534
  799
  1,159
  1,636
  2,248
  3,018
  3,963
  5,099
  6,441
  7,998
  9,778
  11,786
  14,023
  16,488
  19,180
  22,094
  25,225
  28,568
  32,119
  35,873
  39,826
  43,974
  48,316
  52,852
  57,581
  62,506
  67,631
  72,959
  78,497
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  346
  534
  799
  1,159
  1,636
  2,248
  3,018
  3,963
  5,099
  6,441
  7,998
  9,778
  11,786
  14,023
  16,488
  19,180
  22,094
  25,225
  28,568
  32,119
  35,873
  39,826
  43,974
  48,316
  52,852
  57,581
  62,506
  67,631
  72,959
  78,497
Operating income, $m
  -107
  -166
  -248
  -359
  -507
  -697
  -935
  -1,228
  -1,580
  -1,996
  -2,478
  -3,030
  -3,652
  -4,346
  -5,110
  -5,944
  -6,847
  -7,817
  -8,853
  -9,954
  -11,117
  -12,342
  -13,627
  -14,973
  -16,379
  -17,844
  -19,370
  -20,959
  -22,610
  -24,326
EBITDA, $m
  -105
  -163
  -244
  -354
  -499
  -686
  -921
  -1,209
  -1,556
  -1,965
  -2,440
  -2,983
  -3,595
  -4,278
  -5,030
  -5,851
  -6,740
  -7,695
  -8,715
  -9,799
  -10,944
  -12,149
  -13,415
  -14,740
  -16,123
  -17,566
  -19,069
  -20,632
  -22,257
  -23,947
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  8
  10
  19
  31
  47
  69
  96
  131
  174
  225
  286
  356
  436
  527
  628
  740
  861
  993
  1,134
  1,285
  1,446
  1,615
  1,794
  1,981
  2,177
  2,382
  2,596
  2,819
  3,050
  3,291
Earnings before tax, $m
  -115
  -176
  -267
  -390
  -554
  -765
  -1,032
  -1,359
  -1,754
  -2,221
  -2,764
  -3,386
  -4,089
  -4,873
  -5,738
  -6,683
  -7,708
  -8,810
  -9,988
  -11,239
  -12,563
  -13,957
  -15,421
  -16,954
  -18,556
  -20,227
  -21,967
  -23,777
  -25,660
  -27,617
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -115
  -176
  -267
  -390
  -554
  -765
  -1,032
  -1,359
  -1,754
  -2,221
  -2,764
  -3,386
  -4,089
  -4,873
  -5,738
  -6,683
  -7,708
  -8,810
  -9,988
  -11,239
  -12,563
  -13,957
  -15,421
  -16,954
  -18,556
  -20,227
  -21,967
  -23,777
  -25,660
  -27,617

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  151
  233
  349
  506
  714
  981
  1,317
  1,730
  2,226
  2,811
  3,491
  4,268
  5,144
  6,121
  7,197
  8,372
  9,644
  11,011
  12,470
  14,020
  15,659
  17,384
  19,194
  21,090
  23,070
  25,134
  27,284
  29,521
  31,846
  34,264
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  151
  233
  349
  506
  714
  981
  1,317
  1,730
  2,226
  2,811
  3,491
  4,268
  5,144
  6,121
  7,197
  8,372
  9,644
  11,011
  12,470
  14,020
  15,659
  17,384
  19,194
  21,090
  23,070
  25,134
  27,284
  29,521
  31,846
  34,264
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.583
  1.584
  1.579
  1.581
  1.581
  1.582
  1.582
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
Average production assets, $m
  8
  13
  19
  28
  40
  54
  73
  96
  123
  156
  193
  236
  285
  339
  398
  463
  534
  609
  690
  776
  866
  962
  1,062
  1,167
  1,277
  1,391
  1,510
  1,634
  1,762
  1,896
Working capital, $m
  91
  140
  210
  304
  429
  590
  791
  1,039
  1,337
  1,689
  2,097
  2,564
  3,091
  3,677
  4,324
  5,030
  5,794
  6,615
  7,492
  8,423
  9,407
  10,444
  11,532
  12,670
  13,860
  15,100
  16,392
  17,735
  19,133
  20,585
Total debt, $m
  90
  164
  268
  409
  596
  837
  1,139
  1,511
  1,957
  2,484
  3,096
  3,795
  4,584
  5,463
  6,431
  7,489
  8,633
  9,863
  11,177
  12,572
  14,047
  15,599
  17,229
  18,935
  20,717
  22,574
  24,509
  26,522
  28,616
  30,791
Total liabilities, $m
  136
  210
  314
  455
  642
  883
  1,186
  1,557
  2,003
  2,530
  3,142
  3,841
  4,630
  5,509
  6,477
  7,535
  8,679
  9,910
  11,223
  12,618
  14,093
  15,645
  17,275
  18,981
  20,763
  22,621
  24,555
  26,569
  28,662
  30,837
Total equity, $m
  15
  23
  35
  51
  71
  98
  132
  173
  223
  281
  349
  427
  514
  612
  720
  837
  964
  1,101
  1,247
  1,402
  1,566
  1,738
  1,919
  2,109
  2,307
  2,513
  2,728
  2,952
  3,185
  3,426
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  151
  233
  349
  506
  713
  981
  1,318
  1,730
  2,226
  2,811
  3,491
  4,268
  5,144
  6,121
  7,197
  8,372
  9,643
  11,011
  12,470
  14,020
  15,659
  17,383
  19,194
  21,090
  23,070
  25,134
  27,283
  29,521
  31,847
  34,263
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.940
  7.020
  7.680
  8.090
  8.350
  8.530
  8.650
  8.730
  8.790
  8.840
  8.870
  8.890
  8.910
  8.920
  8.940
  8.940
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.990
  8.990
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -115
  -176
  -267
  -390
  -554
  -765
  -1,032
  -1,359
  -1,754
  -2,221
  -2,764
  -3,386
  -4,089
  -4,873
  -5,738
  -6,683
  -7,708
  -8,810
  -9,988
  -11,239
  -12,563
  -13,957
  -15,421
  -16,954
  -18,556
  -20,227
  -21,967
  -23,777
  -25,660
  -27,617
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  11
  15
  19
  25
  31
  39
  47
  57
  68
  80
  93
  107
  122
  138
  155
  173
  192
  212
  233
  255
  278
  302
  327
  352
  379
Funds from operations, $m
  -114
  -173
  -263
  -384
  -546
  -754
  -1,017
  -1,340
  -1,729
  -2,190
  -2,726
  -3,339
  -4,032
  -4,805
  -5,658
  -6,591
  -7,601
  -8,688
  -9,850
  -11,084
  -12,389
  -13,765
  -15,209
  -16,721
  -18,301
  -19,948
  -21,665
  -23,450
  -25,307
  -27,238
Change in working capital, $m
  34
  49
  69
  94
  125
  161
  202
  248
  298
  352
  408
  467
  527
  587
  647
  706
  764
  821
  877
  931
  984
  1,037
  1,088
  1,139
  1,189
  1,240
  1,292
  1,344
  1,397
  1,452
Cash from operations, $m
  -148
  -223
  -332
  -479
  -671
  -915
  -1,219
  -1,588
  -2,027
  -2,542
  -3,134
  -3,806
  -4,558
  -5,392
  -6,305
  -7,297
  -8,365
  -9,509
  -10,726
  -12,015
  -13,374
  -14,801
  -16,297
  -17,860
  -19,490
  -21,189
  -22,956
  -24,794
  -26,705
  -28,690
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -15
  -19
  -25
  -31
  -39
  -47
  -57
  -68
  -80
  -93
  -107
  -122
  -138
  -155
  -173
  -192
  -212
  -233
  -255
  -278
  -302
  -327
  -352
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -9
  -12
  -15
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -43
  -48
  -54
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -7
  -9
  -13
  -18
  -23
  -30
  -38
  -46
  -57
  -69
  -82
  -95
  -111
  -128
  -145
  -163
  -183
  -203
  -224
  -246
  -268
  -292
  -317
  -343
  -369
  -397
  -426
  -456
  -486
Free cash flow, $m
  -152
  -229
  -341
  -491
  -688
  -938
  -1,248
  -1,625
  -2,074
  -2,599
  -3,203
  -3,887
  -4,654
  -5,503
  -6,432
  -7,441
  -8,528
  -9,692
  -10,929
  -12,239
  -13,620
  -15,070
  -16,589
  -18,177
  -19,833
  -21,558
  -23,353
  -25,220
  -27,160
  -29,176
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  19
  74
  104
  142
  187
  241
  302
  371
  446
  527
  612
  699
  789
  879
  969
  1,057
  1,145
  1,230
  1,314
  1,395
  1,475
  1,553
  1,630
  1,706
  1,782
  1,858
  1,935
  2,013
  2,093
  2,176
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  153
  184
  278
  406
  575
  792
  1,065
  1,400
  1,804
  2,280
  2,832
  3,464
  4,176
  4,970
  5,845
  6,801
  7,835
  8,947
  10,133
  11,394
  12,727
  14,130
  15,602
  17,144
  18,754
  20,433
  22,182
  24,001
  25,892
  27,858
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  172
  258
  382
  548
  762
  1,033
  1,367
  1,771
  2,250
  2,807
  3,444
  4,163
  4,965
  5,849
  6,814
  7,858
  8,980
  10,177
  11,447
  12,789
  14,202
  15,683
  17,232
  18,850
  20,536
  22,291
  24,117
  26,014
  27,985
  30,034
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  20
  29
  41
  56
  74
  95
  119
  147
  176
  208
  241
  276
  311
  347
  382
  417
  451
  485
  518
  550
  582
  612
  643
  673
  703
  733
  763
  794
  826
  858
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -153
  -184
  -278
  -406
  -575
  -792
  -1,065
  -1,400
  -1,804
  -2,280
  -2,832
  -3,464
  -4,176
  -4,970
  -5,845
  -6,801
  -7,835
  -8,947
  -10,133
  -11,394
  -12,727
  -14,130
  -15,602
  -17,144
  -18,754
  -20,433
  -22,182
  -24,001
  -25,892
  -27,858
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -132
  -155
  -237
  -350
  -501
  -697
  -946
  -1,254
  -1,627
  -2,072
  -2,591
  -3,188
  -3,865
  -4,624
  -5,464
  -6,384
  -7,384
  -8,461
  -9,615
  -10,844
  -12,145
  -13,517
  -14,960
  -16,471
  -18,051
  -19,700
  -21,418
  -23,207
  -25,067
  -27,000
Discount rate, %
  15.00
  15.75
  16.54
  17.36
  18.23
  19.14
  20.10
  21.11
  22.16
  23.27
  24.43
  25.66
  26.94
  28.28
  29.70
  31.18
  32.74
  34.38
  36.10
  37.90
  39.80
  41.79
  43.88
  46.07
  48.38
  50.80
  53.34
  56.00
  58.80
  61.74
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -115
  -116
  -150
  -184
  -217
  -244
  -262
  -271
  -269
  -256
  -234
  -206
  -174
  -141
  -111
  -83
  -60
  -41
  -28
  -18
  -11
  -6
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  3.8
  0.3
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Turtle Beach Corporation is an audio technology company. The Company is engaged in developing, commercializing and marketing products under the Turtle Beach and HyperSound brands. The Company operates through two segments: Voyetra Turtle Beach (Headset) and HyperSound. Turtle Beach is a provider of headset solutions for use across multiple platforms, including video game and entertainment consoles, handheld consoles, personal computers, tablets and mobile devices. It offers a range of headsets, spanning multiple wired and wireless retail price points and has offerings across all gaming platforms. HyperSound technology is an audio solution that provides a means of projecting sound in a directional manner, without use of speaker arrays, to a specific location creating a precise audio zone. Its HyperSound Clear 500P is a medical device and a directed audio solution for individuals with hearing loss.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Turtle Beach (HEAR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -8.5
Price to Sales 4.3
Price to Book -35.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -371.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -148.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -57.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -214.3%
Total Debt to Equity -400%
Interest Coverage -43
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -63.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.4%
Return On Total Capital -86.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -49.6%
Return On Equity -483.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -198.9%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
EBITDA Margin -44.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.4%
Operating Margin -44.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -50.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -37.4%
Net Profit Margin -50%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.3%
Effective Tax Rate 1.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

HEAR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HEAR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $149.135 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Turtle Beach. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Turtle Beach. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HEAR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 15%, whose default value for HEAR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Turtle Beach, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Turtle Beach.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HEAR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 145%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HEAR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 11.5% for Turtle Beach.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Turtle Beach. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HEAR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HEAR are equal to 3.5%.

Life of production assets of 1.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Turtle Beach operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HEAR is equal to 38%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-22.157 million for Turtle Beach - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13.796 million for Turtle Beach is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Turtle Beach at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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