Intrinsic value of Turtle Beach Corporation - HEAR

Previous Close

$11.25

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$11.25

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HEAR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  238
  368
  551
  799
  1,128
  1,550
  2,081
  2,732
  3,516
  4,441
  5,514
  6,742
  8,126
  9,668
  11,368
  13,224
  15,233
  17,392
  19,697
  22,146
  24,734
  27,459
  30,319
  33,313
  36,440
  39,701
  43,097
  46,630
  50,304
  54,122
Variable operating expenses, $m
  346
  534
  798
  1,158
  1,634
  2,247
  3,016
  3,960
  5,096
  6,436
  7,992
  9,771
  11,777
  14,013
  16,476
  19,166
  22,078
  25,207
  28,548
  32,096
  35,847
  39,797
  43,942
  48,281
  52,814
  57,540
  62,461
  67,582
  72,906
  78,440
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  346
  534
  798
  1,158
  1,634
  2,247
  3,016
  3,960
  5,096
  6,436
  7,992
  9,771
  11,777
  14,013
  16,476
  19,166
  22,078
  25,207
  28,548
  32,096
  35,847
  39,797
  43,942
  48,281
  52,814
  57,540
  62,461
  67,582
  72,906
  78,440
Operating income, $m
  -107
  -166
  -248
  -359
  -507
  -697
  -935
  -1,228
  -1,580
  -1,995
  -2,478
  -3,029
  -3,651
  -4,344
  -5,108
  -5,942
  -6,845
  -7,815
  -8,851
  -9,951
  -11,114
  -12,338
  -13,623
  -14,968
  -16,374
  -17,839
  -19,365
  -20,952
  -22,603
  -24,319
EBITDA, $m
  -105
  -163
  -244
  -354
  -499
  -686
  -920
  -1,209
  -1,555
  -1,964
  -2,439
  -2,982
  -3,594
  -4,277
  -5,029
  -5,849
  -6,738
  -7,693
  -8,713
  -9,796
  -10,940
  -12,146
  -13,411
  -14,735
  -16,118
  -17,561
  -19,063
  -20,626
  -22,251
  -23,940
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  8
  10
  19
  31
  47
  69
  96
  131
  174
  225
  285
  356
  436
  527
  628
  739
  860
  992
  1,133
  1,284
  1,444
  1,614
  1,792
  1,980
  2,176
  2,380
  2,594
  2,816
  3,047
  3,288
Earnings before tax, $m
  -115
  -176
  -266
  -390
  -554
  -765
  -1,031
  -1,359
  -1,753
  -2,220
  -2,763
  -3,385
  -4,087
  -4,871
  -5,736
  -6,681
  -7,705
  -8,807
  -9,984
  -11,235
  -12,558
  -13,952
  -15,415
  -16,948
  -18,549
  -20,219
  -21,958
  -23,768
  -25,650
  -27,606
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -115
  -176
  -266
  -390
  -554
  -765
  -1,031
  -1,359
  -1,753
  -2,220
  -2,763
  -3,385
  -4,087
  -4,871
  -5,736
  -6,681
  -7,705
  -8,807
  -9,984
  -11,235
  -12,558
  -13,952
  -15,415
  -16,948
  -18,549
  -20,219
  -21,958
  -23,768
  -25,650
  -27,606

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  151
  233
  348
  506
  713
  981
  1,316
  1,728
  2,224
  2,809
  3,488
  4,264
  5,140
  6,115
  7,191
  8,364
  9,635
  11,001
  12,459
  14,007
  15,644
  17,368
  19,177
  21,071
  23,049
  25,111
  27,259
  29,494
  31,818
  34,233
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  151
  233
  348
  506
  713
  981
  1,316
  1,728
  2,224
  2,809
  3,488
  4,264
  5,140
  6,115
  7,191
  8,364
  9,635
  11,001
  12,459
  14,007
  15,644
  17,368
  19,177
  21,071
  23,049
  25,111
  27,259
  29,494
  31,818
  34,233
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.576
  1.579
  1.583
  1.579
  1.582
  1.580
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
Average production assets, $m
  8
  13
  19
  28
  39
  54
  73
  96
  123
  155
  193
  236
  284
  338
  398
  463
  533
  609
  689
  775
  866
  961
  1,061
  1,166
  1,275
  1,390
  1,508
  1,632
  1,761
  1,894
Working capital, $m
  91
  140
  209
  304
  428
  589
  791
  1,038
  1,336
  1,687
  2,095
  2,562
  3,088
  3,674
  4,320
  5,025
  5,789
  6,609
  7,485
  8,415
  9,399
  10,434
  11,521
  12,659
  13,847
  15,086
  16,377
  17,719
  19,115
  20,566
Total debt, $m
  90
  164
  267
  409
  596
  836
  1,138
  1,509
  1,955
  2,482
  3,093
  3,792
  4,580
  5,458
  6,425
  7,482
  8,625
  9,854
  11,167
  12,560
  14,034
  15,585
  17,213
  18,918
  20,698
  22,554
  24,487
  26,498
  28,590
  30,763
Total liabilities, $m
  136
  210
  314
  455
  642
  882
  1,185
  1,555
  2,001
  2,528
  3,139
  3,838
  4,626
  5,504
  6,472
  7,528
  8,672
  9,901
  11,213
  12,607
  14,080
  15,631
  17,259
  18,964
  20,744
  22,600
  24,533
  26,545
  28,636
  30,809
Total equity, $m
  15
  23
  35
  51
  71
  98
  132
  173
  222
  281
  349
  426
  514
  612
  719
  836
  964
  1,100
  1,246
  1,401
  1,564
  1,737
  1,918
  2,107
  2,305
  2,511
  2,726
  2,949
  3,182
  3,423
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  151
  233
  349
  506
  713
  980
  1,317
  1,728
  2,223
  2,809
  3,488
  4,264
  5,140
  6,116
  7,191
  8,364
  9,636
  11,001
  12,459
  14,008
  15,644
  17,368
  19,177
  21,071
  23,049
  25,111
  27,259
  29,494
  31,818
  34,232
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.940
  7.020
  7.680
  8.090
  8.350
  8.530
  8.650
  8.730
  8.790
  8.840
  8.870
  8.890
  8.910
  8.920
  8.940
  8.940
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.990
  8.990
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -115
  -176
  -266
  -390
  -554
  -765
  -1,031
  -1,359
  -1,753
  -2,220
  -2,763
  -3,385
  -4,087
  -4,871
  -5,736
  -6,681
  -7,705
  -8,807
  -9,984
  -11,235
  -12,558
  -13,952
  -15,415
  -16,948
  -18,549
  -20,219
  -21,958
  -23,768
  -25,650
  -27,606
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  11
  15
  19
  25
  31
  39
  47
  57
  68
  80
  93
  107
  122
  138
  155
  173
  192
  212
  233
  255
  278
  302
  326
  352
  379
Funds from operations, $m
  -114
  -173
  -262
  -384
  -546
  -754
  -1,017
  -1,339
  -1,729
  -2,189
  -2,725
  -3,338
  -4,030
  -4,803
  -5,656
  -6,588
  -7,598
  -8,685
  -9,846
  -11,080
  -12,385
  -13,760
  -15,203
  -16,715
  -18,294
  -19,941
  -21,657
  -23,442
  -25,298
  -27,227
Change in working capital, $m
  34
  49
  69
  94
  125
  161
  202
  248
  298
  351
  408
  466
  526
  586
  646
  705
  763
  820
  876
  930
  983
  1,036
  1,087
  1,138
  1,188
  1,239
  1,290
  1,343
  1,396
  1,451
Cash from operations, $m
  -148
  -223
  -332
  -479
  -671
  -915
  -1,218
  -1,587
  -2,026
  -2,541
  -3,133
  -3,804
  -4,556
  -5,389
  -6,302
  -7,294
  -8,362
  -9,505
  -10,722
  -12,010
  -13,368
  -14,795
  -16,290
  -17,852
  -19,482
  -21,180
  -22,947
  -24,784
  -26,694
  -28,678
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -15
  -19
  -25
  -31
  -39
  -47
  -57
  -68
  -80
  -93
  -107
  -122
  -138
  -155
  -173
  -192
  -212
  -233
  -255
  -278
  -302
  -326
  -352
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -9
  -11
  -15
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -43
  -48
  -54
  -59
  -65
  -70
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -7
  -9
  -13
  -17
  -23
  -30
  -38
  -46
  -57
  -69
  -82
  -95
  -111
  -127
  -145
  -163
  -183
  -203
  -224
  -246
  -268
  -292
  -317
  -342
  -369
  -397
  -426
  -455
  -486
Free cash flow, $m
  -152
  -229
  -341
  -491
  -688
  -937
  -1,248
  -1,624
  -2,073
  -2,598
  -3,201
  -3,886
  -4,652
  -5,500
  -6,429
  -7,438
  -8,525
  -9,687
  -10,924
  -12,234
  -13,614
  -15,064
  -16,582
  -18,169
  -19,825
  -21,549
  -23,344
  -25,210
  -27,149
  -29,164
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  19
  74
  104
  141
  187
  241
  302
  371
  446
  527
  611
  699
  788
  878
  968
  1,056
  1,144
  1,229
  1,312
  1,394
  1,473
  1,551
  1,628
  1,704
  1,780
  1,856
  1,933
  2,011
  2,091
  2,174
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  153
  184
  278
  406
  575
  792
  1,065
  1,400
  1,803
  2,279
  2,831
  3,463
  4,175
  4,969
  5,843
  6,798
  7,832
  8,943
  10,130
  11,390
  12,722
  14,124
  15,596
  17,137
  18,747
  20,425
  22,173
  23,992
  25,883
  27,848
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  172
  258
  382
  547
  762
  1,033
  1,367
  1,771
  2,249
  2,806
  3,442
  4,162
  4,963
  5,847
  6,811
  7,854
  8,976
  10,172
  11,442
  12,784
  14,195
  15,675
  17,224
  18,841
  20,527
  22,281
  24,106
  26,003
  27,974
  30,022
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  20
  29
  41
  56
  74
  95
  119
  146
  176
  208
  241
  276
  311
  346
  382
  417
  451
  485
  518
  550
  581
  612
  642
  672
  702
  732
  762
  793
  825
  857
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -153
  -184
  -278
  -406
  -575
  -792
  -1,065
  -1,400
  -1,803
  -2,279
  -2,831
  -3,463
  -4,175
  -4,969
  -5,843
  -6,798
  -7,832
  -8,943
  -10,130
  -11,390
  -12,722
  -14,124
  -15,596
  -17,137
  -18,747
  -20,425
  -22,173
  -23,992
  -25,883
  -27,848
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -132
  -155
  -237
  -350
  -501
  -697
  -946
  -1,254
  -1,627
  -2,071
  -2,590
  -3,187
  -3,864
  -4,622
  -5,462
  -6,382
  -7,381
  -8,458
  -9,612
  -10,840
  -12,141
  -13,512
  -14,954
  -16,465
  -18,045
  -19,693
  -21,411
  -23,198
  -25,058
  -26,991
Discount rate, %
  15.00
  15.75
  16.54
  17.36
  18.23
  19.14
  20.10
  21.11
  22.16
  23.27
  24.43
  25.66
  26.94
  28.28
  29.70
  31.18
  32.74
  34.38
  36.10
  37.90
  39.80
  41.79
  43.88
  46.07
  48.38
  50.80
  53.34
  56.00
  58.80
  61.74
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -115
  -116
  -150
  -184
  -217
  -244
  -262
  -271
  -269
  -256
  -234
  -206
  -174
  -141
  -110
  -83
  -60
  -41
  -28
  -18
  -11
  -6
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  3.8
  0.3
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Turtle Beach Corporation is an audio technology company. The Company is engaged in developing, commercializing and marketing products under the Turtle Beach and HyperSound brands. The Company operates through two segments: Voyetra Turtle Beach (Headset) and HyperSound. Turtle Beach is a provider of headset solutions for use across multiple platforms, including video game and entertainment consoles, handheld consoles, personal computers, tablets and mobile devices. It offers a range of headsets, spanning multiple wired and wireless retail price points and has offerings across all gaming platforms. HyperSound technology is an audio solution that provides a means of projecting sound in a directional manner, without use of speaker arrays, to a specific location creating a precise audio zone. Its HyperSound Clear 500P is a medical device and a directed audio solution for individuals with hearing loss.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Turtle Beach Corporation (HEAR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -6.4
Price to Sales 3.2
Price to Book -26.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -277
Price to Free Cash Flow -110.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -57.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -214.3%
Total Debt to Equity -400%
Interest Coverage -43
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -63.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.4%
Return On Total Capital -86.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -49.6%
Return On Equity -483.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -198.9%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
EBITDA Margin -44.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.4%
Operating Margin -44.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -50.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -37.4%
Net Profit Margin -50%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.3%
Effective Tax Rate 1.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

HEAR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HEAR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $149 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Turtle Beach Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Turtle Beach Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HEAR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 15%, whose default value for HEAR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Turtle Beach Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Turtle Beach Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HEAR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 145%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HEAR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 11.5% for Turtle Beach Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Turtle Beach Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HEAR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HEAR are equal to 3.5%.

Life of production assets of 1.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Turtle Beach Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HEAR is equal to 38%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-22.157 million for Turtle Beach Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 14.239 million for Turtle Beach Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Turtle Beach Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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