Intrinsic value of H&E Equipment Services - HEES

Previous Close

$28.79

  Intrinsic Value

$10.13

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-65%

Previous close

$28.79

 
Intrinsic value

$10.13

 
Up/down potential

-65%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HEES stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.96
  2.90
  3.11
  3.30
  3.47
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  4.00
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
Revenue, $m
  978
  1,006
  1,038
  1,072
  1,109
  1,149
  1,192
  1,239
  1,288
  1,341
  1,397
  1,457
  1,520
  1,587
  1,658
  1,733
  1,812
  1,896
  1,984
  2,077
  2,175
  2,278
  2,386
  2,501
  2,621
  2,748
  2,881
  3,021
  3,169
  3,324
  3,486
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  731
  753
  778
  805
  834
  865
  899
  934
  972
  1,013
  1,053
  1,099
  1,147
  1,198
  1,253
  1,310
  1,370
  1,434
  1,501
  1,572
  1,646
  1,725
  1,808
  1,895
  1,986
  2,083
  2,184
  2,290
  2,402
  2,520
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  165
  169
  173
  178
  182
  187
  191
  196
  201
  206
  211
  217
  222
  227
  233
  239
  245
  251
  257
  264
  270
  277
  284
  291
  298
  306
  314
  321
  329
  338
Total operating expenses, $m
  867
  896
  922
  951
  983
  1,016
  1,052
  1,090
  1,130
  1,173
  1,219
  1,264
  1,316
  1,369
  1,425
  1,486
  1,549
  1,615
  1,685
  1,758
  1,836
  1,916
  2,002
  2,092
  2,186
  2,284
  2,389
  2,498
  2,611
  2,731
  2,858
Operating income, $m
  111
  111
  115
  121
  127
  133
  141
  149
  158
  168
  178
  193
  205
  218
  232
  247
  263
  280
  299
  318
  339
  361
  384
  409
  435
  463
  493
  524
  557
  592
  629
EBITDA, $m
  301
  305
  315
  327
  340
  355
  370
  387
  405
  425
  446
  469
  493
  519
  547
  576
  607
  640
  675
  712
  752
  793
  837
  884
  933
  985
  1,039
  1,097
  1,158
  1,223
  1,290
Interest expense (income), $m
  52
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  106
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  210
  221
Earnings before tax, $m
  59
  60
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  88
  94
  101
  111
  119
  128
  137
  147
  158
  169
  181
  194
  208
  223
  239
  256
  274
  293
  313
  335
  358
  382
  408
Tax expense, $m
  22
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
  79
  85
  90
  97
  103
  110
Net income, $m
  37
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  56
  60
  64
  69
  74
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  115
  123
  132
  142
  152
  163
  175
  187
  200
  214
  229
  245
  261
  279
  298

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,242
  1,269
  1,309
  1,352
  1,399
  1,449
  1,504
  1,562
  1,625
  1,691
  1,762
  1,837
  1,917
  2,001
  2,091
  2,185
  2,285
  2,390
  2,501
  2,619
  2,742
  2,872
  3,009
  3,154
  3,305
  3,465
  3,633
  3,810
  3,996
  4,191
  4,397
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,234
  1,269
  1,309
  1,352
  1,399
  1,449
  1,504
  1,562
  1,625
  1,691
  1,762
  1,837
  1,917
  2,001
  2,091
  2,185
  2,285
  2,390
  2,501
  2,619
  2,742
  2,872
  3,009
  3,154
  3,305
  3,465
  3,633
  3,810
  3,996
  4,191
  4,397
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
  0.793
Average production assets, $m
  1,003
  1,032
  1,064
  1,099
  1,137
  1,178
  1,222
  1,270
  1,320
  1,375
  1,432
  1,493
  1,558
  1,627
  1,699
  1,776
  1,857
  1,943
  2,033
  2,129
  2,229
  2,335
  2,446
  2,563
  2,687
  2,817
  2,953
  3,097
  3,248
  3,407
  3,574
Working capital, $m
  0
  159
  164
  169
  175
  182
  188
  196
  204
  212
  221
  230
  240
  251
  262
  274
  286
  299
  313
  328
  344
  360
  377
  395
  414
  434
  455
  477
  501
  525
  551
Total debt, $m
  792
  815
  850
  888
  929
  974
  1,022
  1,074
  1,129
  1,188
  1,251
  1,317
  1,387
  1,462
  1,541
  1,625
  1,713
  1,806
  1,904
  2,008
  2,117
  2,232
  2,353
  2,481
  2,615
  2,756
  2,905
  3,061
  3,225
  3,398
  3,580
Total liabilities, $m
  1,099
  1,122
  1,157
  1,195
  1,236
  1,281
  1,329
  1,381
  1,436
  1,495
  1,558
  1,624
  1,694
  1,769
  1,848
  1,932
  2,020
  2,113
  2,211
  2,315
  2,424
  2,539
  2,660
  2,788
  2,922
  3,063
  3,212
  3,368
  3,532
  3,705
  3,887
Total equity, $m
  143
  147
  152
  157
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  213
  222
  232
  243
  253
  265
  277
  290
  304
  318
  333
  349
  366
  383
  402
  421
  442
  464
  486
  510
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,242
  1,269
  1,309
  1,352
  1,398
  1,449
  1,503
  1,562
  1,624
  1,691
  1,762
  1,837
  1,916
  2,001
  2,091
  2,185
  2,285
  2,390
  2,501
  2,619
  2,742
  2,872
  3,009
  3,154
  3,305
  3,465
  3,633
  3,810
  3,996
  4,191
  4,397
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.538
  5.540
  5.600
  5.660
  5.730
  5.790
  5.860
  5.930
  5.990
  6.060
  6.120
  6.180
  6.240
  6.300
  6.350
  6.410
  6.460
  6.510
  6.560
  6.610
  6.660
  6.700
  6.740
  6.780
  6.820
  6.860
  6.890
  6.930
  6.960
  6.990
  7.020
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  37
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  56
  60
  64
  69
  74
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  115
  123
  132
  142
  152
  163
  175
  187
  200
  214
  229
  245
  261
  279
  298
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  190
  194
  200
  207
  214
  221
  229
  238
  248
  258
  268
  277
  289
  301
  315
  329
  344
  360
  377
  394
  413
  432
  453
  475
  498
  522
  547
  573
  601
  631
  662
Funds from operations, $m
  130
  238
  246
  254
  264
  274
  286
  298
  312
  326
  342
  358
  376
  395
  415
  436
  459
  483
  509
  536
  565
  595
  628
  662
  698
  736
  776
  818
  863
  910
  959
Change in working capital, $m
  -47
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
Cash from operations, $m
  177
  233
  241
  249
  258
  268
  279
  291
  304
  318
  333
  348
  366
  384
  404
  424
  447
  470
  495
  521
  549
  579
  610
  644
  679
  716
  755
  796
  839
  885
  934
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -186
  -191
  -197
  -203
  -211
  -218
  -226
  -235
  -245
  -255
  -265
  -277
  -289
  -301
  -315
  -329
  -344
  -360
  -377
  -394
  -413
  -432
  -453
  -475
  -498
  -522
  -547
  -573
  -601
  -631
New CAPEX, $m
  -203
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -114
  -215
  -223
  -232
  -241
  -252
  -262
  -273
  -286
  -299
  -313
  -326
  -342
  -358
  -374
  -392
  -410
  -430
  -450
  -472
  -494
  -519
  -543
  -570
  -598
  -628
  -659
  -691
  -724
  -760
  -798
Free cash flow, $m
  63
  19
  18
  17
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  45
  50
  55
  61
  67
  73
  80
  88
  96
  105
  115
  125
  136
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -22
  31
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
  141
  149
  156
  164
  173
  182
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -23
  31
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
  141
  149
  156
  164
  173
  182
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  40
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  84
  88
  95
  101
  109
  116
  125
  134
  143
  153
  164
  176
  188
  201
  215
  229
  245
  262
  279
  298
  317
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  0
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  85
  92
  98
  105
  113
  121
  130
  140
  150
  160
  172
  184
  197
  211
  226
  241
  258
  275
  294
Discount rate, %
 
  10.40
  10.92
  11.47
  12.04
  12.64
  13.27
  13.94
  14.63
  15.37
  16.13
  16.94
  17.79
  18.68
  19.61
  20.59
  21.62
  22.70
  23.84
  25.03
  26.28
  27.59
  28.97
  30.42
  31.94
  33.54
  35.22
  36.98
  38.83
  40.77
  42.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  41
  39
  36
  33
  30
  28
  25
  22
  19
  17
  14
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

H&E Equipment Services, Inc. is an integrated equipment services company. The Company is focused on heavy construction and industrial equipment. As of December 31, 2016, the Company rented, sold and provided parts and services support for four core categories of specialized equipment: hi-lift or aerial work platform equipment; cranes; earthmoving equipment, and industrial lift trucks. The Company's principal business activities include equipment rentals; new equipment sales; used equipment sales; parts sales, and repair and maintenance services. As of February 16, 2017, the Company had 78 facilities located throughout the West Coast, Intermountain, Southwest, Gulf Coast, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States. The Company rents its heavy construction and industrial equipment to its customers on a daily, weekly and monthly basis. The Company sells new heavy construction and industrial equipment. The Company is a distributor of Grove and Manitowoc crane equipment.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  H&E Equipment Services (HEES)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.7
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 7.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -39.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -1.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 439.9%
Total Debt to Equity 553.8%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Total Capital 3.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Return On Equity 25.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.3%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 34.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.2%
EBITDA Margin 30.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.9%
Operating Margin 11.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Net Profit Margin 3.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 37.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.1%
Payout Ratio 105.4%

HEES stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HEES stock intrinsic value calculation we used $978 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by H&E Equipment Services. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of H&E Equipment Services. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HEES stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.4%, whose default value for HEES is calculated based on our internal credit rating of H&E Equipment Services, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of H&E Equipment Services.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HEES stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 72.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $161 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HEES stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.5% for H&E Equipment Services.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for H&E Equipment Services. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HEES stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HEES are equal to 102.5%.

Life of production assets of 5.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in H&E Equipment Services operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HEES is equal to 15.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $143 million for H&E Equipment Services - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.429 million for H&E Equipment Services is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of H&E Equipment Services at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ H&E Equipment posts 2Q profit   [Jul-27-17 10:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ H&E Equipment to buy Neff for about $1.2 bln   [Jul-14-17 09:46AM  Reuters]
▶ These 3 Dividend Stocks Could Slash Their Payouts   [Jun-21-17 03:29PM  Motley Fool]
▶ H&E Equipment Services Reports Quarterly Cash Dividend   [May-22-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Why H&E Equipment Services Stock Dropped 12%   [Apr-27-17 05:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ H&E Equipment posts 1Q profit   [08:58AM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for April 25th   [Apr-25-17 10:10AM  Zacks]
▶ H&E Equipment posts 4Q profit   [07:26AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is H&E Equipment Services, Inc. (HEES) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-04-16 09:46PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of HEES
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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