Intrinsic value of Helen of Troy - HELE

Previous Close

$140.58

  Intrinsic Value

$90.44

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-36%

Previous close

$140.58

 
Intrinsic value

$90.44

 
Up/down potential

-36%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HELE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.00
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.62
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.39
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
Revenue, $m
  1,624
  1,763
  1,909
  2,060
  2,217
  2,380
  2,550
  2,726
  2,909
  3,100
  3,298
  3,504
  3,719
  3,943
  4,176
  4,419
  4,673
  4,938
  5,214
  5,503
  5,805
  6,121
  6,451
  6,796
  7,158
  7,536
  7,933
  8,348
  8,783
  9,238
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,419
  1,533
  1,652
  1,776
  1,904
  2,038
  2,177
  2,321
  2,471
  2,627
  2,699
  2,867
  3,043
  3,226
  3,417
  3,616
  3,824
  4,040
  4,267
  4,503
  4,750
  5,008
  5,278
  5,561
  5,857
  6,167
  6,491
  6,831
  7,186
  7,559
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,419
  1,533
  1,652
  1,776
  1,904
  2,038
  2,177
  2,321
  2,471
  2,627
  2,699
  2,867
  3,043
  3,226
  3,417
  3,616
  3,824
  4,040
  4,267
  4,503
  4,750
  5,008
  5,278
  5,561
  5,857
  6,167
  6,491
  6,831
  7,186
  7,559
Operating income, $m
  205
  230
  256
  284
  312
  342
  373
  405
  438
  473
  599
  637
  676
  717
  759
  803
  849
  898
  948
  1,000
  1,055
  1,113
  1,173
  1,235
  1,301
  1,370
  1,442
  1,517
  1,596
  1,679
EBITDA, $m
  316
  344
  372
  401
  432
  464
  497
  531
  567
  604
  643
  683
  725
  768
  814
  861
  911
  962
  1,016
  1,072
  1,131
  1,193
  1,257
  1,324
  1,395
  1,469
  1,546
  1,627
  1,711
  1,800
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  43
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  176
Earnings before tax, $m
  189
  211
  235
  259
  284
  310
  338
  366
  395
  426
  548
  581
  616
  652
  689
  728
  769
  812
  856
  903
  951
  1,002
  1,055
  1,110
  1,168
  1,229
  1,293
  1,360
  1,429
  1,503
Tax expense, $m
  51
  57
  63
  70
  77
  84
  91
  99
  107
  115
  148
  157
  166
  176
  186
  197
  208
  219
  231
  244
  257
  270
  285
  300
  315
  332
  349
  367
  386
  406
Net income, $m
  138
  154
  171
  189
  207
  227
  247
  267
  289
  311
  400
  424
  450
  476
  503
  532
  561
  593
  625
  659
  694
  731
  770
  811
  853
  897
  944
  993
  1,044
  1,097

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,769
  1,921
  2,079
  2,244
  2,415
  2,593
  2,778
  2,970
  3,169
  3,377
  3,593
  3,817
  4,051
  4,295
  4,549
  4,814
  5,090
  5,379
  5,680
  5,995
  6,324
  6,668
  7,027
  7,404
  7,797
  8,210
  8,641
  9,094
  9,567
  10,064
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,769
  1,921
  2,079
  2,244
  2,415
  2,593
  2,778
  2,970
  3,169
  3,377
  3,593
  3,817
  4,051
  4,295
  4,549
  4,814
  5,090
  5,379
  5,680
  5,995
  6,324
  6,668
  7,027
  7,404
  7,797
  8,210
  8,641
  9,094
  9,567
  10,064
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
Average production assets, $m
  638
  693
  750
  810
  871
  935
  1,002
  1,071
  1,143
  1,218
  1,296
  1,377
  1,462
  1,550
  1,641
  1,737
  1,837
  1,941
  2,049
  2,163
  2,281
  2,406
  2,535
  2,671
  2,813
  2,962
  3,118
  3,281
  3,452
  3,631
Working capital, $m
  261
  284
  307
  332
  357
  383
  411
  439
  468
  499
  531
  564
  599
  635
  672
  712
  752
  795
  840
  886
  935
  985
  1,039
  1,094
  1,152
  1,213
  1,277
  1,344
  1,414
  1,487
Total debt, $m
  344
  401
  460
  522
  586
  653
  722
  794
  869
  947
  1,028
  1,112
  1,200
  1,291
  1,387
  1,486
  1,590
  1,698
  1,811
  1,929
  2,052
  2,181
  2,316
  2,457
  2,605
  2,759
  2,921
  3,091
  3,268
  3,454
Total liabilities, $m
  663
  720
  780
  841
  906
  972
  1,042
  1,114
  1,188
  1,266
  1,347
  1,432
  1,519
  1,611
  1,706
  1,805
  1,909
  2,017
  2,130
  2,248
  2,371
  2,500
  2,635
  2,776
  2,924
  3,079
  3,241
  3,410
  3,588
  3,774
Total equity, $m
  1,106
  1,201
  1,300
  1,402
  1,509
  1,620
  1,736
  1,856
  1,981
  2,110
  2,245
  2,386
  2,532
  2,684
  2,843
  3,009
  3,182
  3,362
  3,550
  3,747
  3,952
  4,167
  4,392
  4,627
  4,873
  5,131
  5,401
  5,683
  5,980
  6,290
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,769
  1,921
  2,080
  2,243
  2,415
  2,592
  2,778
  2,970
  3,169
  3,376
  3,592
  3,818
  4,051
  4,295
  4,549
  4,814
  5,091
  5,379
  5,680
  5,995
  6,323
  6,667
  7,027
  7,403
  7,797
  8,210
  8,642
  9,093
  9,568
  10,064
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.370
  0.390
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  138
  154
  171
  189
  207
  227
  247
  267
  289
  311
  400
  424
  450
  476
  503
  532
  561
  593
  625
  659
  694
  731
  770
  811
  853
  897
  944
  993
  1,044
  1,097
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  112
  114
  116
  118
  120
  122
  124
  126
  129
  131
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
Funds from operations, $m
  250
  268
  287
  307
  327
  348
  370
  393
  417
  442
  443
  470
  498
  528
  558
  590
  623
  657
  693
  731
  770
  811
  855
  900
  947
  996
  1,048
  1,102
  1,159
  1,218
Change in working capital, $m
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
Cash from operations, $m
  228
  245
  264
  282
  302
  322
  343
  365
  388
  411
  412
  437
  464
  492
  520
  550
  582
  615
  649
  684
  722
  761
  801
  844
  888
  935
  984
  1,035
  1,089
  1,145
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
New CAPEX, $m
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -179
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -231
  -243
  -255
  -267
  -280
  -294
Free cash flow, $m
  156
  169
  183
  198
  213
  229
  245
  262
  280
  298
  293
  313
  333
  355
  377
  400
  424
  449
  475
  503
  531
  561
  591
  624
  657
  693
  729
  768
  808
  851
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  210
  226
  243
  260
  277
  296
  315
  334
  355
  376
  374
  397
  421
  446
  472
  500
  528
  557
  588
  621
  654
  689
  726
  765
  805
  847
  891
  938
  986
  1,037
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -215
  -225
  -235
  -246
  -258
  -270
  -283
  -296
  -310
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  119
  131
  144
  157
  170
  184
  199
  214
  230
  247
  239
  257
  275
  294
  314
  334
  355
  377
  400
  424
  449
  475
  502
  530
  559
  590
  622
  655
  690
  726
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  114
  120
  125
  129
  132
  134
  135
  134
  132
  129
  114
  110
  105
  99
  92
  85
  77
  69
  62
  54
  46
  39
  33
  27
  22
  17
  13
  10
  8
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Helen Of Troy Limited is a global consumer products company that offers a range of solutions for its customers through a range of brands. The Company is a global designer, developer, importer, marketer and distributor of a portfolio of brand-name consumer products. The Company has three segments. The Housewares segment provides a range of consumer products for the home. The Health & Home segment focuses on healthcare devices, such as thermometers, humidifiers, blood pressure monitors and heating pads; water filtration systems, and small home appliances, such as portable heaters, fans, air purifiers, and insect control devices. The Beauty segment's products include electric hair care, beauty care and wellness appliances; grooming tools and accessories, and liquid-, solid- and powder-based personal care and grooming products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Helen of Troy (HELE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.9
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 3.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 45.2%
Total Debt to Equity 47.6%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Return On Total Capital 9.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Return On Equity 14.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.2%
EBITDA Margin 13.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Operating Margin 10.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Net Profit Margin 9.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Effective Tax Rate 6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

HELE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HELE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1489.747 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Helen of Troy. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Helen of Troy. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HELE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HELE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Helen of Troy, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Helen of Troy.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HELE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HELE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Helen of Troy.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Helen of Troy. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HELE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HELE are equal to 39.3%.

Life of production assets of 31 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Helen of Troy operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HELE is equal to 16.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1014.459 million for Helen of Troy - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 26.343 million for Helen of Troy is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Helen of Troy at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.7 billion.

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