Intrinsic value of Harte-Hanks - HHS

Previous Close

$5.09

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$5.09

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HHS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  392
  401
  411
  422
  435
  449
  465
  481
  499
  518
  539
  561
  584
  609
  635
  663
  692
  723
  756
  791
  827
  866
  907
  950
  995
  1,043
  1,093
  1,145
  1,201
  1,259
Variable operating expenses, $m
  444
  454
  466
  479
  493
  509
  526
  545
  565
  587
  610
  635
  661
  689
  719
  750
  784
  819
  856
  895
  937
  981
  1,027
  1,076
  1,127
  1,181
  1,237
  1,297
  1,360
  1,426
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  444
  454
  466
  479
  493
  509
  526
  545
  565
  587
  610
  635
  661
  689
  719
  750
  784
  819
  856
  895
  937
  981
  1,027
  1,076
  1,127
  1,181
  1,237
  1,297
  1,360
  1,426
Operating income, $m
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
EBITDA, $m
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
Earnings before tax, $m
  -52
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -52
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  133
  136
  140
  144
  148
  153
  158
  164
  170
  176
  183
  191
  199
  207
  216
  226
  236
  246
  258
  269
  282
  295
  309
  324
  339
  355
  372
  390
  409
  429
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  133
  136
  140
  144
  148
  153
  158
  164
  170
  176
  183
  191
  199
  207
  216
  226
  236
  246
  258
  269
  282
  295
  309
  324
  339
  355
  372
  390
  409
  429
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.947
  2.949
  2.936
  2.931
  2.939
  2.935
  2.943
  2.933
  2.935
  2.943
  2.945
  2.937
  2.935
  2.942
  2.940
  2.934
  2.932
  2.939
  2.930
  2.941
  2.933
  2.936
  2.935
  2.932
  2.935
  2.938
  2.938
  2.936
  2.936
  2.935
Average production assets, $m
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
Working capital, $m
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  91
Total debt, $m
  -45
  -43
  -39
  -36
  -32
  -28
  -23
  -18
  -12
  -7
  0
  6
  14
  21
  29
  38
  47
  56
  66
  77
  88
  100
  113
  126
  140
  154
  170
  186
  203
  221
Total liabilities, $m
  120
  123
  126
  129
  133
  138
  142
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  187
  195
  203
  212
  222
  232
  242
  254
  266
  278
  291
  305
  320
  335
  351
  368
  386
Total equity, $m
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  133
  137
  140
  143
  148
  153
  158
  163
  170
  177
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  269
  282
  296
  309
  323
  339
  356
  372
  390
  409
  429
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -3.400
  -3.130
  -2.820
  -2.500
  -2.160
  -1.810
  -1.460
  -1.100
  -0.730
  -0.370
  -0.020
  0.330
  0.680
  1.020
  1.350
  1.670
  1.980
  2.280
  2.580
  2.860
  3.130
  3.390
  3.640
  3.890
  4.120
  4.340
  4.550
  4.760
  4.960
  5.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -52
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Funds from operations, $m
  -45
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -156
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  -46
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
Free cash flow, $m
  -53
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -186
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -45
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  100
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  155
  163
  171
  180
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  55
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  66
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  85
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  133
  139
  146
  154
  162
  170
  179
  188
  198
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -100
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -98
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -94
  -45
  -44
  -43
  -41
  -40
  -39
  -37
  -36
  -34
  -32
  -30
  -28
  -26
  -24
  -22
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  10.3
  2.1
  0.4
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Harte Hanks, Inc. (Harte Hanks) is a multi-channel marketing company. The Company's Customer Interaction business offers a range of marketing services, in media from direct mail to e-mail, including agency and digital services; database marketing solutions and business-to-business lead generation; direct mail, and contact centers. Its agency services are customer engagement agencies specializing in direct and digital communications for both consumer and business-to-business markets. The Company's digital solutions integrate online services within the marketing mix and include search engine management, display, digital analytics, Website development and design, digital strategy, social media, e-mail, e-commerce and interactive relationship management and a range of other services that support its core businesses.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Harte-Hanks (HHS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.4
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 104.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 39.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -12.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -15.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage -11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -39.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.4%
Return On Total Capital -119.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -56%
Return On Equity -183.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -83.1%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 9.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
EBITDA Margin -12.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.1%
Operating Margin -13.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -17.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.8%
Net Profit Margin -32.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.2%
Effective Tax Rate -30.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Payout Ratio -3.8%

HHS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HHS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $383.906 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Harte-Hanks. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Harte-Hanks. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HHS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HHS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Harte-Hanks, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Harte-Hanks.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HHS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 113.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HHS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Harte-Hanks.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Harte-Hanks. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HHS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HHS are equal to 8.6%.

Life of production assets of 4.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Harte-Hanks operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HHS is equal to 7.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-34.635 million for Harte-Hanks - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 6.241 million for Harte-Hanks is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Harte-Hanks at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Harte-Hanks: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:45AM  Associated Press]
▶ Harte Hanks Receives NYSE Continued Listing Standard Letter   [Nov-02-18 04:11PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Harte Hanks CEO exits San Antonio-based company   [Aug-28-18 02:52PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Harte-Hanks, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-08-18 09:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Harte-Hanks: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:07AM  Associated Press]
▶ Harte-Hanks: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-09-18 05:09PM  Associated Press]
▶ SA-based Harte Hanks to eliminate hundreds of jobs in Texas   [Apr-04-18 02:21PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Harte-Hanks reports 4Q loss   [Mar-15-18 10:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ Harte-Hanks, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [01:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Harte-Hanks Earnings Outlook   [10:48AM  Benzinga]
▶ Harte Hanks Sells its 3Q Digital Business   [Mar-02-18 04:21PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ SA-based Harte Hanks making big cuts to executive pay   [Feb-06-18 04:41PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Harte Hanks reduces executive and director compensation   [Feb-02-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Harte Hanks Announces Executive Changes   [Jan-18-18 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Harte Hanks Announces Reverse-Split Ratio and Date   [Dec-29-17 03:16PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Harte-Hanks reports 3Q loss   [Nov-08-17 10:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ Harte-Hanks, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [07:40AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harte-Hanks, Inc. : October 3, 2017   [Oct-03-17 11:17AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Harte-Hanks reports 2Q loss   [Sep-28-17 09:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ Harte Hanks Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-16-17 04:15PM  Marketwired]
▶ Hi Ho Silver - ITOCO Major Venture Agreement Signed   [Jul-25-17 06:31PM  Newsfile]
▶ Harte-Hanks reports 4Q loss   [Jun-09-17 10:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harte-Hanks, Inc. : January 9, 2017   [Jan-09-17 01:28PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Harte Hanks gets $112 million and a lawsuit dismissed for the holidays   [04:29PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Harte Hanks Completes Sale of Trillium Business   [Dec-23-16 09:42AM  Marketwired]

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