Intrinsic value of Hillenbrand - HI

Previous Close

$39.40

  Intrinsic Value

$34.29

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-13%

  Value-price divergence*

-25%

Previous close

$39.40

 
Intrinsic value

$34.29

 
Up/down potential

-13%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

-25%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.69
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  1,538
  1,641
  1,748
  1,860
  1,976
  2,097
  2,222
  2,354
  2,490
  2,633
  2,782
  2,938
  3,100
  3,270
  3,448
  3,634
  3,828
  4,032
  4,245
  4,468
  4,701
  4,946
  5,203
  5,471
  5,753
  6,049
  6,358
  6,683
  7,024
  7,382
  7,757
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,437
  1,526
  1,620
  1,717
  1,818
  1,923
  2,033
  2,147
  2,267
  2,391
  2,458
  2,594
  2,736
  2,885
  3,041
  3,203
  3,374
  3,552
  3,738
  3,934
  4,139
  4,353
  4,578
  4,814
  5,061
  5,321
  5,593
  5,878
  6,177
  6,491
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,347
  1,437
  1,526
  1,620
  1,717
  1,818
  1,923
  2,033
  2,147
  2,267
  2,391
  2,458
  2,594
  2,736
  2,885
  3,041
  3,203
  3,374
  3,552
  3,738
  3,934
  4,139
  4,353
  4,578
  4,814
  5,061
  5,321
  5,593
  5,878
  6,177
  6,491
Operating income, $m
  191
  204
  222
  240
  259
  279
  299
  321
  343
  366
  391
  480
  506
  534
  563
  593
  625
  658
  693
  729
  767
  807
  849
  893
  939
  987
  1,038
  1,091
  1,147
  1,205
  1,266
EBITDA, $m
  251
  302
  321
  342
  363
  385
  408
  432
  458
  484
  511
  540
  570
  601
  634
  668
  703
  741
  780
  821
  864
  909
  956
  1,005
  1,057
  1,111
  1,168
  1,228
  1,291
  1,356
  1,425
Interest expense (income), $m
  23
  24
  27
  31
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  56
  61
  66
  72
  77
  83
  89
  95
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  140
  149
  158
  168
  178
  189
  200
  211
  224
Earnings before tax, $m
  164
  181
  195
  209
  224
  240
  256
  274
  291
  310
  329
  413
  434
  457
  480
  504
  529
  556
  584
  613
  643
  675
  709
  744
  781
  819
  860
  902
  947
  993
  1,042
Tax expense, $m
  47
  49
  53
  56
  61
  65
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  112
  117
  123
  130
  136
  143
  150
  158
  165
  174
  182
  191
  201
  211
  221
  232
  244
  256
  268
  281
Net income, $m
  113
  132
  142
  153
  164
  175
  187
  200
  213
  226
  240
  302
  317
  333
  350
  368
  386
  406
  426
  447
  470
  493
  517
  543
  570
  598
  628
  659
  691
  725
  761

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  52
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,961
  2,036
  2,169
  2,307
  2,451
  2,601
  2,757
  2,920
  3,090
  3,267
  3,452
  3,645
  3,847
  4,057
  4,278
  4,508
  4,750
  5,002
  5,266
  5,543
  5,833
  6,137
  6,455
  6,788
  7,138
  7,505
  7,889
  8,292
  8,715
  9,158
  9,624
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,909
  2,036
  2,169
  2,307
  2,451
  2,601
  2,757
  2,920
  3,090
  3,267
  3,452
  3,645
  3,847
  4,057
  4,278
  4,508
  4,750
  5,002
  5,266
  5,543
  5,833
  6,137
  6,455
  6,788
  7,138
  7,505
  7,889
  8,292
  8,715
  9,158
  9,624
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
Average production assets, $m
  657
  701
  746
  794
  844
  895
  949
  1,005
  1,063
  1,124
  1,188
  1,254
  1,324
  1,396
  1,472
  1,552
  1,635
  1,721
  1,812
  1,908
  2,007
  2,112
  2,221
  2,336
  2,457
  2,583
  2,715
  2,854
  2,999
  3,152
  3,312
Working capital, $m
  166
  136
  145
  154
  164
  174
  184
  195
  207
  219
  231
  244
  257
  271
  286
  302
  318
  335
  352
  371
  390
  411
  432
  454
  478
  502
  528
  555
  583
  613
  644
Total debt, $m
  610
  684
  775
  871
  970
  1,073
  1,181
  1,293
  1,410
  1,532
  1,659
  1,792
  1,931
  2,077
  2,228
  2,387
  2,553
  2,727
  2,909
  3,100
  3,300
  3,509
  3,728
  3,958
  4,199
  4,452
  4,716
  4,994
  5,286
  5,591
  5,912
Total liabilities, $m
  1,329
  1,403
  1,494
  1,590
  1,689
  1,792
  1,900
  2,012
  2,129
  2,251
  2,378
  2,511
  2,650
  2,796
  2,947
  3,106
  3,272
  3,446
  3,628
  3,819
  4,019
  4,228
  4,447
  4,677
  4,918
  5,171
  5,435
  5,713
  6,005
  6,310
  6,631
Total equity, $m
  632
  633
  675
  718
  762
  809
  858
  908
  961
  1,016
  1,074
  1,134
  1,196
  1,262
  1,330
  1,402
  1,477
  1,556
  1,638
  1,724
  1,814
  1,908
  2,007
  2,111
  2,220
  2,334
  2,453
  2,579
  2,710
  2,848
  2,993
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,961
  2,036
  2,169
  2,308
  2,451
  2,601
  2,758
  2,920
  3,090
  3,267
  3,452
  3,645
  3,846
  4,058
  4,277
  4,508
  4,749
  5,002
  5,266
  5,543
  5,833
  6,136
  6,454
  6,788
  7,138
  7,505
  7,888
  8,292
  8,715
  9,158
  9,624
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.965
  1.080
  1.150
  1.210
  1.270
  1.330
  1.380
  1.420
  1.470
  1.510
  1.550
  1.580
  1.610
  1.650
  1.670
  1.700
  1.730
  1.750
  1.780
  1.800
  1.820
  1.840
  1.860
  1.870
  1.890
  1.910
  1.920
  1.940
  1.950
  1.960
  1.980
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.304
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  113
  132
  142
  153
  164
  175
  187
  200
  213
  226
  240
  302
  317
  333
  350
  368
  386
  406
  426
  447
  470
  493
  517
  543
  570
  598
  628
  659
  691
  725
  761
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  60
  97
  99
  102
  104
  106
  109
  112
  115
  117
  121
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
  131
  137
  144
  152
  159
Funds from operations, $m
  293
  229
  241
  254
  268
  282
  296
  311
  327
  344
  361
  362
  381
  400
  421
  442
  465
  489
  513
  539
  566
  595
  624
  655
  688
  722
  758
  796
  835
  877
  920
Change in working capital, $m
  55
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
Cash from operations, $m
  238
  220
  232
  245
  258
  272
  286
  301
  316
  332
  349
  349
  367
  386
  406
  427
  449
  472
  496
  521
  547
  574
  603
  633
  665
  698
  732
  769
  807
  847
  889
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -152
New CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -254
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -192
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -232
  -244
  -256
  -270
  -283
  -297
  -312
Free cash flow, $m
  -16
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  209
  220
  231
  225
  238
  250
  263
  277
  291
  306
  322
  338
  355
  373
  392
  411
  432
  453
  476
  500
  524
  550
  577
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  84
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  209
  219
  230
  241
  253
  265
  278
  291
  306
  321
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  73
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  209
  219
  230
  241
  253
  265
  278
  291
  306
  321
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  55
  233
  245
  257
  269
  283
  297
  311
  326
  342
  358
  358
  376
  395
  415
  436
  457
  480
  504
  529
  555
  582
  611
  641
  673
  706
  741
  777
  816
  856
  898
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  38
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  232
  203
  214
  225
  236
  248
  260
  273
  287
  301
  298
  314
  330
  347
  364
  382
  402
  422
  443
  465
  488
  512
  538
  564
  592
  621
  652
  684
  718
  753
Discount rate, %
 
  6.60
  6.93
  7.28
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.29
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.45
  13.07
  13.72
  14.41
  15.13
  15.88
  16.68
  17.51
  18.39
  19.31
  20.27
  21.29
  22.35
  23.47
  24.64
  25.87
  27.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  217
  178
  173
  167
  161
  153
  144
  134
  124
  113
  97
  87
  77
  67
  58
  49
  41
  33
  27
  21
  16
  12
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Hillenbrand, Inc. is a diversified industrial company with multiple brands that serve a range of industries across the globe. The Company operates in two segments: the Process Equipment Group and Batesville. The Process Equipment Group businesses design, develop, manufacture and service engineered industrial equipment throughout the world. The Process Equipment Group segment is a provider of compounding, extrusion and material handling; size reduction; screening and separating, and flow control products and services for a range of manufacturing and other industrial processes. It offers equipment for industries, including plastics, chemicals, fertilizers and mining. Its Batesville segment operates in the North American death care industry, and manufactures and sells funeral service products, including burial caskets, cremation caskets, containers and urns, selection room display fixtures, other personalization and memorialization products, and Web-based technology applications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hillenbrand (HI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 3.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -32.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 94.3%
Total Debt to Equity 96.5%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Return On Total Capital 9.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Return On Equity 18.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.8%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
EBITDA Margin 16.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Operating Margin 12.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Net Profit Margin 7.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Effective Tax Rate 28.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.8%
Payout Ratio 45.1%

HI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1538 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hillenbrand. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Hillenbrand. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.6%, whose default value for HI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hillenbrand, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hillenbrand.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4% for Hillenbrand.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hillenbrand. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HI are equal to 42.7%.

Life of production assets of 20.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hillenbrand operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HI is equal to 8.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $632 million for Hillenbrand - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 63.585 million for Hillenbrand is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hillenbrand at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Hillenbrand To Host 2017 Investor Day   [Sep-26-17 08:20AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Hillenbrand, Inc. : August 18, 2017   [Aug-18-17 05:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Hillenbrand posts 3Q profit   [Aug-04-17 01:31AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Hillenbrand, Inc. : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 02:10PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Hillenbrand, Inc. : May 22, 2017   [May-22-17 01:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Hillenbrand posts 2Q profit   [May-04-17 05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hillenbrand posts 1Q profit   [Feb-01-17 06:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ Hillenbrand, Inc. (HI): Are Hedge Funds Right About This Stock?   [Dec-05-16 04:56AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Casket Maker Sees Growth Despite Rise of Cremations   [Nov-03-16 09:51AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Financial statements of HI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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