Intrinsic value of Hillenbrand - HI

Previous Close

$45.00

  Intrinsic Value

$52.84

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+17%

Previous close

$45.00

 
Intrinsic value

$52.84

 
Up/down potential

+17%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Hillenbrand (HI) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.38
  3.30
  3.47
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  4.00
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  1,590
  1,642
  1,699
  1,761
  1,827
  1,898
  1,974
  2,055
  2,141
  2,232
  2,329
  2,432
  2,541
  2,655
  2,777
  2,905
  3,040
  3,182
  3,332
  3,490
  3,657
  3,832
  4,017
  4,211
  4,415
  4,630
  4,856
  5,093
  5,343
  5,605
  5,881
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  819
  845
  874
  904
  937
  971
  1,009
  1,048
  1,090
  1,135
  1,117
  1,167
  1,219
  1,275
  1,334
  1,396
  1,461
  1,530
  1,603
  1,679
  1,760
  1,845
  1,934
  2,028
  2,126
  2,230
  2,339
  2,454
  2,574
  2,701
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  607
  622
  638
  653
  670
  687
  704
  721
  739
  758
  777
  796
  816
  836
  857
  879
  901
  923
  946
  970
  994
  1,019
  1,045
  1,071
  1,098
  1,125
  1,153
  1,182
  1,211
  1,242
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,373
  1,426
  1,467
  1,512
  1,557
  1,607
  1,658
  1,713
  1,769
  1,829
  1,893
  1,894
  1,963
  2,035
  2,111
  2,191
  2,275
  2,362
  2,453
  2,549
  2,649
  2,754
  2,864
  2,979
  3,099
  3,224
  3,355
  3,492
  3,636
  3,785
  3,943
Operating income, $m
  218
  217
  232
  250
  270
  292
  316
  343
  372
  403
  437
  538
  578
  620
  665
  713
  765
  820
  879
  941
  1,007
  1,078
  1,153
  1,232
  1,317
  1,406
  1,501
  1,601
  1,707
  1,820
  1,938
EBITDA, $m
  275
  312
  328
  347
  368
  392
  417
  446
  476
  509
  545
  583
  625
  669
  716
  767
  821
  879
  940
  1,006
  1,075
  1,149
  1,227
  1,310
  1,398
  1,492
  1,591
  1,695
  1,806
  1,923
  2,047
Interest expense (income), $m
  20
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
Earnings before tax, $m
  188
  200
  214
  230
  249
  269
  291
  316
  342
  371
  403
  501
  538
  577
  619
  664
  712
  763
  818
  876
  938
  1,004
  1,074
  1,149
  1,228
  1,311
  1,400
  1,494
  1,594
  1,699
  1,811
Tax expense, $m
  60
  54
  58
  62
  67
  73
  79
  85
  92
  100
  109
  135
  145
  156
  167
  179
  192
  206
  221
  237
  253
  271
  290
  310
  331
  354
  378
  403
  430
  459
  489
Net income, $m
  126
  146
  156
  168
  181
  196
  213
  230
  250
  271
  294
  366
  393
  421
  452
  485
  520
  557
  597
  640
  685
  733
  784
  839
  896
  957
  1,022
  1,091
  1,164
  1,240
  1,322

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  66
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,957
  1,953
  2,021
  2,094
  2,173
  2,257
  2,347
  2,443
  2,546
  2,654
  2,770
  2,892
  3,021
  3,157
  3,302
  3,454
  3,615
  3,784
  3,962
  4,150
  4,348
  4,557
  4,776
  5,007
  5,250
  5,505
  5,774
  6,056
  6,353
  6,665
  6,993
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,891
  1,953
  2,021
  2,094
  2,173
  2,257
  2,347
  2,443
  2,546
  2,654
  2,770
  2,892
  3,021
  3,157
  3,302
  3,454
  3,615
  3,784
  3,962
  4,150
  4,348
  4,557
  4,776
  5,007
  5,250
  5,505
  5,774
  6,056
  6,353
  6,665
  6,993
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
Average production assets, $m
  685
  708
  732
  759
  788
  818
  851
  886
  923
  962
  1,004
  1,048
  1,095
  1,144
  1,197
  1,252
  1,310
  1,372
  1,436
  1,504
  1,576
  1,652
  1,731
  1,815
  1,903
  1,995
  2,093
  2,195
  2,303
  2,416
  2,535
Working capital, $m
  82
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
Total debt, $m
  466
  486
  529
  575
  624
  677
  734
  795
  859
  927
  999
  1,076
  1,157
  1,243
  1,333
  1,429
  1,530
  1,636
  1,748
  1,866
  1,991
  2,122
  2,259
  2,404
  2,557
  2,717
  2,886
  3,063
  3,250
  3,445
  3,651
Total liabilities, $m
  1,205
  1,226
  1,269
  1,315
  1,364
  1,417
  1,474
  1,535
  1,599
  1,667
  1,739
  1,816
  1,897
  1,983
  2,073
  2,169
  2,270
  2,376
  2,488
  2,606
  2,731
  2,862
  2,999
  3,144
  3,297
  3,457
  3,626
  3,803
  3,990
  4,185
  4,391
Total equity, $m
  751
  727
  752
  779
  808
  840
  873
  909
  947
  987
  1,030
  1,076
  1,124
  1,175
  1,228
  1,285
  1,345
  1,408
  1,474
  1,544
  1,618
  1,695
  1,777
  1,863
  1,953
  2,048
  2,148
  2,253
  2,363
  2,479
  2,601
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,956
  1,953
  2,021
  2,094
  2,172
  2,257
  2,347
  2,444
  2,546
  2,654
  2,769
  2,892
  3,021
  3,158
  3,301
  3,454
  3,615
  3,784
  3,962
  4,150
  4,349
  4,557
  4,776
  5,007
  5,250
  5,505
  5,774
  6,056
  6,353
  6,664
  6,992
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.621
  0.670
  0.700
  0.740
  0.770
  0.810
  0.840
  0.870
  0.910
  0.940
  0.970
  1.000
  1.030
  1.060
  1.090
  1.110
  1.140
  1.160
  1.190
  1.210
  1.230
  1.250
  1.270
  1.290
  1.310
  1.330
  1.340
  1.360
  1.380
  1.390
  1.400
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.362
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  126
  146
  156
  168
  181
  196
  213
  230
  250
  271
  294
  366
  393
  421
  452
  485
  520
  557
  597
  640
  685
  733
  784
  839
  896
  957
  1,022
  1,091
  1,164
  1,240
  1,322
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  57
  95
  96
  97
  99
  100
  101
  103
  104
  106
  108
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
Funds from operations, $m
  264
  241
  253
  266
  280
  296
  314
  333
  354
  377
  402
  411
  440
  470
  503
  538
  576
  616
  659
  704
  753
  804
  859
  917
  978
  1,043
  1,112
  1,185
  1,262
  1,344
  1,431
Change in working capital, $m
  18
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Cash from operations, $m
  246
  240
  251
  264
  279
  295
  312
  331
  352
  375
  400
  409
  437
  468
  501
  536
  573
  613
  656
  701
  749
  800
  855
  912
  973
  1,038
  1,107
  1,180
  1,257
  1,338
  1,425
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
New CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -14
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -212
  -223
Free cash flow, $m
  232
  187
  196
  206
  217
  230
  244
  260
  277
  296
  317
  321
  345
  371
  399
  429
  461
  495
  532
  571
  613
  657
  704
  754
  808
  864
  924
  988
  1,055
  1,126
  1,202
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -147
  39
  43
  46
  49
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  152
  160
  169
  177
  186
  196
  206
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -163
  39
  43
  46
  49
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  152
  160
  169
  177
  186
  196
  206
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  66
  227
  239
  252
  267
  283
  301
  320
  342
  364
  389
  398
  427
  457
  490
  525
  562
  602
  644
  689
  737
  788
  842
  899
  960
  1,024
  1,093
  1,165
  1,241
  1,322
  1,408
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -119
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  251
  214
  225
  238
  252
  267
  285
  303
  324
  346
  353
  378
  406
  436
  468
  502
  539
  578
  619
  663
  710
  760
  813
  870
  929
  993
  1,060
  1,131
  1,206
  1,286
Discount rate, %
 
  4.70
  4.94
  5.18
  5.44
  5.71
  6.00
  6.30
  6.61
  6.94
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.77
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.09
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.71
  17.55
  18.42
  19.35
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  240
  194
  193
  192
  191
  189
  186
  182
  177
  171
  157
  150
  142
  133
  123
  113
  102
  92
  81
  70
  60
  51
  42
  34
  27
  21
  16
  12
  9
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Hillenbrand, Inc. is a diversified industrial company with multiple brands that serve a range of industries across the globe. The Company operates in two segments: the Process Equipment Group and Batesville. The Process Equipment Group businesses design, develop, manufacture and service engineered industrial equipment throughout the world. The Process Equipment Group segment is a provider of compounding, extrusion and material handling; size reduction; screening and separating, and flow control products and services for a range of manufacturing and other industrial processes. It offers equipment for industries, including plastics, chemicals, fertilizers and mining. Its Batesville segment operates in the North American death care industry, and manufactures and sells funeral service products, including burial caskets, cremation caskets, containers and urns, selection room display fixtures, other personalization and memorialization products, and Web-based technology applications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hillenbrand (HI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.5
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 3.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 4.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 59.5%
Total Debt to Equity 62.1%
Interest Coverage 10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Return On Total Capital 10.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Return On Equity 18.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.5%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.9%
EBITDA Margin 16.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Operating Margin 13.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Net Profit Margin 7.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Effective Tax Rate 31.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.3%
Payout Ratio 41.3%

HI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1590 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hillenbrand. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Hillenbrand. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.7%, whose default value for HI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hillenbrand, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hillenbrand.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 50%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $592 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for Hillenbrand.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hillenbrand. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HI are equal to 43.1%.

Life of production assets of 23.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hillenbrand operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HI is equal to 2.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $751 million for Hillenbrand - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 63.758 million for Hillenbrand is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hillenbrand at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Hillenbrand, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Feb-01-18 06:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Hillenbrand posts 1Q profit   [Jan-31-18 06:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ Hillenbrand Hosts 2017 Investor Day   [Dec-12-17 06:50AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Hillenbrand, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [06:45AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Hillenbrand posts 4Q profit   [Nov-15-17 05:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ IBD Rating Upgrades: Hillenbrand Shows Improved Relative Price Strength   [Oct-27-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Hillenbrand To Host 2017 Investor Day   [Sep-26-17 08:20AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Hillenbrand, Inc. : August 18, 2017   [Aug-18-17 05:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Hillenbrand posts 3Q profit   [Aug-04-17 01:31AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Hillenbrand, Inc. : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 02:10PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Hillenbrand, Inc. : May 22, 2017   [May-22-17 01:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Hillenbrand posts 2Q profit   [May-04-17 05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hillenbrand posts 1Q profit   [Feb-01-17 06:04PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of HI
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