Intrinsic value of Hartford Financial Services Group - HIG

Previous Close

$51.96

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$51.96

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as HIG.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HIG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 18.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
Revenue, $m
  17,891
  18,850
  19,853
  20,904
  22,004
  23,156
  24,363
  25,628
  26,953
  28,343
  29,799
  31,327
  32,928
  34,608
  36,370
  38,219
  40,158
  42,193
  44,328
  46,568
  48,919
  51,386
  53,976
  56,694
  59,547
  62,541
  65,684
  68,984
  72,447
  76,083
Variable operating expenses, $m
  12,430
  13,091
  13,784
  14,509
  15,268
  16,064
  16,897
  17,770
  18,684
  19,643
  20,567
  21,621
  22,727
  23,886
  25,102
  26,378
  27,717
  29,121
  30,595
  32,141
  33,764
  35,466
  37,254
  39,130
  41,099
  43,165
  45,335
  47,612
  50,003
  52,512
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  4,327
  4,422
  4,520
  4,619
  4,721
  4,825
  4,931
  5,039
  5,150
  5,263
  5,379
  5,497
  5,618
  5,742
  5,868
  5,997
  6,129
  6,264
  6,402
  6,543
  6,687
  6,834
  6,984
  7,138
  7,295
  7,455
  7,619
  7,787
  7,958
  8,134
Total operating expenses, $m
  16,757
  17,513
  18,304
  19,128
  19,989
  20,889
  21,828
  22,809
  23,834
  24,906
  25,946
  27,118
  28,345
  29,628
  30,970
  32,375
  33,846
  35,385
  36,997
  38,684
  40,451
  42,300
  44,238
  46,268
  48,394
  50,620
  52,954
  55,399
  57,961
  60,646
Operating income, $m
  1,134
  1,336
  1,549
  1,775
  2,015
  2,268
  2,536
  2,819
  3,119
  3,436
  3,853
  4,208
  4,583
  4,980
  5,399
  5,843
  6,312
  6,807
  7,331
  7,884
  8,469
  9,086
  9,738
  10,426
  11,153
  11,920
  12,730
  13,585
  14,486
  15,438
EBITDA, $m
  24,997
  26,474
  28,022
  29,644
  31,346
  33,130
  35,003
  36,967
  39,029
  41,193
  43,465
  45,850
  48,355
  50,984
  53,746
  56,647
  59,694
  62,894
  66,256
  69,787
  73,497
  77,394
  81,488
  85,789
  90,308
  95,056
  100,044
  105,285
  110,791
  116,575
Interest expense (income), $m
  336
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
  2,438
Earnings before tax, $m
  -1,304
  -1,102
  -888
  -662
  -423
  -170
  98
  381
  681
  998
  1,415
  1,770
  2,145
  2,542
  2,962
  3,405
  3,874
  4,369
  4,893
  5,446
  6,031
  6,648
  7,300
  7,988
  8,715
  9,482
  10,292
  11,147
  12,048
  13,000
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  26
  103
  184
  269
  382
  478
  579
  686
  800
  919
  1,046
  1,180
  1,321
  1,471
  1,628
  1,795
  1,971
  2,157
  2,353
  2,560
  2,779
  3,010
  3,253
  3,510
Net income, $m
  -1,304
  -1,102
  -888
  -662
  -423
  -170
  71
  278
  497
  728
  1,033
  1,292
  1,566
  1,856
  2,162
  2,486
  2,828
  3,190
  3,572
  3,976
  4,402
  4,853
  5,329
  5,831
  6,362
  6,922
  7,513
  8,137
  8,795
  9,490

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Average production assets, $m
  237,820
  250,567
  263,907
  277,872
  292,495
  307,810
  323,855
  340,668
  358,288
  376,757
  396,120
  416,424
  437,715
  460,046
  483,469
  508,041
  533,820
  560,867
  589,247
  619,028
  650,280
  683,079
  717,502
  753,631
  791,553
  831,358
  873,141
  917,001
  963,043
  1,011,376
Working capital, $m
  -221,146
  -232,999
  -245,404
  -258,390
  -271,987
  -286,229
  -301,149
  -316,783
  -333,167
  -350,342
  -368,348
  -387,227
  -407,026
  -427,791
  -449,572
  -472,421
  -496,392
  -521,543
  -547,934
  -575,626
  -604,687
  -635,187
  -667,196
  -700,792
  -736,056
  -773,070
  -811,923
  -852,708
  -895,522
  -940,467
Total debt, $m
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
  45,146
Total liabilities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -1,304
  -1,102
  -888
  -662
  -423
  -170
  71
  278
  497
  728
  1,033
  1,292
  1,566
  1,856
  2,162
  2,486
  2,828
  3,190
  3,572
  3,976
  4,402
  4,853
  5,329
  5,831
  6,362
  6,922
  7,513
  8,137
  8,795
  9,490
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23,864
  25,138
  26,472
  27,869
  29,331
  30,863
  32,467
  34,148
  35,910
  37,757
  39,612
  41,642
  43,772
  46,005
  48,347
  50,804
  53,382
  56,087
  58,925
  61,903
  65,028
  68,308
  71,750
  75,363
  79,155
  83,136
  87,314
  91,700
  96,304
  101,138
Funds from operations, $m
  22,560
  24,036
  25,584
  27,206
  28,908
  30,692
  32,538
  34,426
  36,407
  38,486
  40,645
  42,934
  45,337
  47,860
  50,509
  53,290
  56,210
  59,276
  62,497
  65,879
  69,430
  73,161
  77,079
  81,195
  85,517
  90,058
  94,827
  99,837
  105,100
  110,628
Change in working capital, $m
  -11,330
  -11,853
  -12,405
  -12,986
  -13,598
  -14,242
  -14,920
  -15,634
  -16,385
  -17,175
  -18,006
  -18,880
  -19,799
  -20,765
  -21,781
  -22,849
  -23,971
  -25,151
  -26,390
  -27,693
  -29,061
  -30,499
  -32,010
  -33,596
  -35,263
  -37,014
  -38,853
  -40,785
  -42,814
  -44,945
Cash from operations, $m
  33,890
  35,890
  37,989
  40,192
  42,505
  44,934
  47,458
  50,060
  52,792
  55,660
  58,651
  61,814
  65,136
  68,625
  72,290
  76,139
  80,181
  84,427
  88,887
  93,571
  98,492
  103,660
  109,089
  114,791
  120,781
  127,072
  133,681
  140,622
  147,914
  155,572
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -22,563
  -23,782
  -25,057
  -26,391
  -27,787
  -29,249
  -30,781
  -32,386
  -34,067
  -35,829
  -37,676
  -39,612
  -41,642
  -43,772
  -46,005
  -48,347
  -50,804
  -53,382
  -56,087
  -58,925
  -61,903
  -65,028
  -68,308
  -71,750
  -75,363
  -79,155
  -83,136
  -87,314
  -91,700
  -96,304
New CAPEX, $m
  -12,193
  -12,747
  -13,340
  -13,965
  -14,623
  -15,316
  -16,045
  -16,812
  -17,620
  -18,470
  -19,363
  -20,303
  -21,292
  -22,331
  -23,423
  -24,572
  -25,779
  -27,047
  -28,380
  -29,781
  -31,252
  -32,799
  -34,423
  -36,129
  -37,922
  -39,805
  -41,783
  -43,860
  -46,042
  -48,334
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -34,756
  -36,529
  -38,397
  -40,356
  -42,410
  -44,565
  -46,826
  -49,198
  -51,687
  -54,299
  -57,039
  -59,915
  -62,934
  -66,103
  -69,428
  -72,919
  -76,583
  -80,429
  -84,467
  -88,706
  -93,155
  -97,827
  -102,731
  -107,879
  -113,285
  -118,960
  -124,919
  -131,174
  -137,742
  -144,638
Free cash flow, $m
  -866
  -640
  -408
  -163
  95
  369
  632
  862
  1,105
  1,362
  1,612
  1,899
  2,202
  2,523
  2,862
  3,220
  3,598
  3,998
  4,420
  4,866
  5,337
  5,833
  6,358
  6,911
  7,495
  8,112
  8,762
  9,448
  10,171
  10,934
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -866
  -640
  -408
  -163
  95
  369
  632
  862
  1,105
  1,362
  1,612
  1,899
  2,202
  2,523
  2,862
  3,220
  3,598
  3,998
  4,420
  4,866
  5,337
  5,833
  6,358
  6,911
  7,495
  8,112
  8,762
  9,448
  10,171
  10,934
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1,304
  -1,102
  -888
  -662
  -423
  -170
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -1,304
  -1,102
  -888
  -662
  -328
  199
  632
  862
  1,105
  1,362
  1,612
  1,899
  2,202
  2,523
  2,862
  3,220
  3,598
  3,998
  4,420
  4,866
  5,337
  5,833
  6,358
  6,911
  7,495
  8,112
  8,762
  9,448
  10,171
  10,934
Discount rate, %
  14.20
  14.91
  15.66
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
  25.50
  26.78
  28.12
  29.52
  31.00
  32.55
  34.17
  35.88
  37.68
  39.56
  41.54
  43.62
  45.80
  48.09
  50.49
  53.02
  55.67
  58.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -1,142
  -835
  -574
  -360
  -148
  73
  187
  201
  199
  186
  163
  140
  115
  91
  70
  51
  37
  25
  17
  11
  6
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. is a holding company for insurance and financial services subsidiaries. The Company's segments include Commercial Lines, which provides workers' compensation, property, automobile, marine, livestock, liability and umbrella coverages primarily throughout the United States; Personal Lines, which provides automobile, homeowners and personal umbrella coverages to individuals across the United States; Group Benefits, which provides group life, accident and disability coverage, and other products and services; Property & Casualty Other Operations, which includes certain property and casualty operations; Mutual Funds, which provides investment management, administration, product distribution and related services to investors; Talcott Resolution, which consists of the run-off of the Company's the United States individual and institutional annuity, and Private Placement Life Insurance (PPLI) businesses, and Corporate.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.7
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -27%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 27.4%
Total Debt to Equity 29.9%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Return On Total Capital 4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Equity 5.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 16.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.4%
Operating Margin 6.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Net Profit Margin 4.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Effective Tax Rate -11.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Payout Ratio 37.3%

HIG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HIG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $16974 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hartford Financial Services Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Hartford Financial Services Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HIG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.2%, whose default value for HIG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hartford Financial Services Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hartford Financial Services Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HIG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 69.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $4234 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HIG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Hartford Financial Services Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hartford Financial Services Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HIG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HIG are equal to 1329.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hartford Financial Services Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HIG is equal to -1236.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Hartford Financial Services Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 357 million for Hartford Financial Services Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hartford Financial Services Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $18.5 billion.

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