Intrinsic value of Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. - HII

Previous Close

$220.90

  Intrinsic Value

$419.70

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+90%

Previous close

$220.90

 
Intrinsic value

$419.70

 
Up/down potential

+90%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of HII stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.20
  9.68
  9.21
  8.79
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.49
  7.24
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  9,010
  9,882
  10,792
  11,741
  12,729
  13,756
  14,824
  15,934
  17,087
  18,286
  19,532
  20,827
  22,174
  23,576
  25,035
  26,555
  28,139
  29,790
  31,512
  33,309
  35,185
  37,144
  39,192
  41,332
  43,570
  45,911
  48,361
  50,925
  53,610
  56,422
Variable operating expenses, $m
  7,929
  8,679
  9,463
  10,279
  11,129
  12,013
  12,932
  13,887
  14,880
  15,911
  16,808
  17,922
  19,082
  20,288
  21,544
  22,852
  24,214
  25,635
  27,117
  28,663
  30,278
  31,964
  33,726
  35,568
  37,493
  39,508
  41,616
  43,823
  46,133
  48,553
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,929
  8,679
  9,463
  10,279
  11,129
  12,013
  12,932
  13,887
  14,880
  15,911
  16,808
  17,922
  19,082
  20,288
  21,544
  22,852
  24,214
  25,635
  27,117
  28,663
  30,278
  31,964
  33,726
  35,568
  37,493
  39,508
  41,616
  43,823
  46,133
  48,553
Operating income, $m
  1,081
  1,203
  1,330
  1,462
  1,600
  1,743
  1,892
  2,047
  2,208
  2,375
  2,724
  2,905
  3,093
  3,288
  3,492
  3,704
  3,924
  4,155
  4,395
  4,645
  4,907
  5,180
  5,466
  5,764
  6,076
  6,403
  6,745
  7,102
  7,477
  7,869
EBITDA, $m
  1,433
  1,572
  1,717
  1,868
  2,025
  2,188
  2,358
  2,535
  2,718
  2,909
  3,107
  3,313
  3,527
  3,750
  3,982
  4,224
  4,476
  4,739
  5,013
  5,298
  5,597
  5,909
  6,234
  6,575
  6,931
  7,303
  7,693
  8,101
  8,528
  8,975
Interest expense (income), $m
  71
  69
  96
  124
  153
  184
  215
  248
  283
  318
  355
  394
  434
  475
  519
  564
  611
  659
  710
  763
  819
  876
  937
  1,000
  1,065
  1,134
  1,206
  1,281
  1,360
  1,442
  1,529
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,012
  1,107
  1,206
  1,309
  1,416
  1,528
  1,644
  1,764
  1,889
  2,019
  2,330
  2,471
  2,617
  2,769
  2,928
  3,093
  3,265
  3,444
  3,631
  3,827
  4,031
  4,244
  4,466
  4,699
  4,942
  5,197
  5,463
  5,742
  6,034
  6,340
Tax expense, $m
  273
  299
  326
  353
  382
  412
  444
  476
  510
  545
  629
  667
  707
  748
  791
  835
  882
  930
  980
  1,033
  1,088
  1,146
  1,206
  1,269
  1,334
  1,403
  1,475
  1,550
  1,629
  1,712
Net income, $m
  739
  808
  880
  955
  1,034
  1,115
  1,200
  1,288
  1,379
  1,474
  1,701
  1,804
  1,910
  2,022
  2,137
  2,258
  2,383
  2,514
  2,651
  2,794
  2,942
  3,098
  3,260
  3,430
  3,608
  3,794
  3,988
  4,192
  4,405
  4,628

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,034
  7,714
  8,425
  9,166
  9,937
  10,739
  11,572
  12,439
  13,339
  14,275
  15,247
  16,258
  17,310
  18,404
  19,544
  20,730
  21,966
  23,255
  24,599
  26,002
  27,467
  28,996
  30,595
  32,265
  34,012
  35,840
  37,752
  39,754
  41,850
  44,045
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,034
  7,714
  8,425
  9,166
  9,937
  10,739
  11,572
  12,439
  13,339
  14,275
  15,247
  16,258
  17,310
  18,404
  19,544
  20,730
  21,966
  23,255
  24,599
  26,002
  27,467
  28,996
  30,595
  32,265
  34,012
  35,840
  37,752
  39,754
  41,850
  44,045
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
  1.281
Average production assets, $m
  3,568
  3,913
  4,274
  4,650
  5,041
  5,447
  5,870
  6,310
  6,767
  7,241
  7,735
  8,248
  8,781
  9,336
  9,914
  10,516
  11,143
  11,797
  12,479
  13,190
  13,933
  14,709
  15,520
  16,367
  17,254
  18,181
  19,151
  20,166
  21,230
  22,343
Working capital, $m
  -360
  -395
  -432
  -470
  -509
  -550
  -593
  -637
  -683
  -731
  -781
  -833
  -887
  -943
  -1,001
  -1,062
  -1,126
  -1,192
  -1,260
  -1,332
  -1,407
  -1,486
  -1,568
  -1,653
  -1,743
  -1,836
  -1,934
  -2,037
  -2,144
  -2,257
Total debt, $m
  1,776
  2,294
  2,836
  3,400
  3,988
  4,599
  5,234
  5,894
  6,580
  7,293
  8,034
  8,805
  9,606
  10,440
  11,308
  12,212
  13,154
  14,136
  15,161
  16,230
  17,346
  18,511
  19,729
  21,002
  22,333
  23,726
  25,183
  26,709
  28,306
  29,978
Total liabilities, $m
  5,360
  5,878
  6,420
  6,984
  7,572
  8,183
  8,818
  9,478
  10,164
  10,877
  11,618
  12,389
  13,190
  14,024
  14,892
  15,796
  16,738
  17,720
  18,745
  19,814
  20,930
  22,095
  23,313
  24,586
  25,917
  27,310
  28,767
  30,293
  31,890
  33,562
Total equity, $m
  1,674
  1,836
  2,005
  2,181
  2,365
  2,556
  2,754
  2,960
  3,175
  3,397
  3,629
  3,870
  4,120
  4,380
  4,651
  4,934
  5,228
  5,535
  5,855
  6,189
  6,537
  6,901
  7,282
  7,679
  8,095
  8,530
  8,985
  9,461
  9,960
  10,483
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,034
  7,714
  8,425
  9,165
  9,937
  10,739
  11,572
  12,438
  13,339
  14,274
  15,247
  16,259
  17,310
  18,404
  19,543
  20,730
  21,966
  23,255
  24,600
  26,003
  27,467
  28,996
  30,595
  32,265
  34,012
  35,840
  37,752
  39,754
  41,850
  44,045
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.060
  1.250
  1.410
  1.560
  1.690
  1.800
  1.900
  1.990
  2.070
  2.150
  2.210
  2.280
  2.330
  2.380
  2.430
  2.480
  2.520
  2.550
  2.590
  2.620
  2.650
  2.680
  2.710
  2.730
  2.760
  2.780
  2.800
  2.820
  2.840
  2.860
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238
  0.238

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  739
  808
  880
  955
  1,034
  1,115
  1,200
  1,288
  1,379
  1,474
  1,701
  1,804
  1,910
  2,022
  2,137
  2,258
  2,383
  2,514
  2,651
  2,794
  2,942
  3,098
  3,260
  3,430
  3,608
  3,794
  3,988
  4,192
  4,405
  4,628
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  352
  369
  387
  406
  425
  445
  466
  488
  510
  534
  383
  408
  435
  462
  491
  521
  552
  584
  618
  653
  690
  728
  768
  810
  854
  900
  948
  998
  1,051
  1,106
Funds from operations, $m
  1,091
  1,177
  1,267
  1,361
  1,459
  1,560
  1,666
  1,776
  1,890
  2,008
  2,084
  2,212
  2,345
  2,484
  2,628
  2,778
  2,935
  3,098
  3,269
  3,447
  3,632
  3,826
  4,029
  4,241
  4,462
  4,694
  4,936
  5,190
  5,456
  5,735
Change in working capital, $m
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -112
Cash from operations, $m
  1,124
  1,212
  1,304
  1,399
  1,498
  1,601
  1,709
  1,820
  1,936
  2,056
  2,134
  2,264
  2,399
  2,540
  2,686
  2,839
  2,998
  3,164
  3,338
  3,518
  3,707
  3,904
  4,111
  4,326
  4,552
  4,787
  5,034
  5,293
  5,564
  5,847
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -160
  -177
  -194
  -212
  -230
  -250
  -270
  -291
  -312
  -335
  -358
  -383
  -408
  -435
  -462
  -491
  -521
  -552
  -584
  -618
  -653
  -690
  -728
  -768
  -810
  -854
  -900
  -948
  -998
  -1,051
New CAPEX, $m
  -332
  -345
  -360
  -376
  -391
  -407
  -423
  -440
  -457
  -475
  -493
  -513
  -534
  -555
  -578
  -602
  -627
  -654
  -682
  -712
  -743
  -776
  -811
  -848
  -886
  -927
  -970
  -1,015
  -1,063
  -1,113
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -492
  -522
  -554
  -588
  -621
  -657
  -693
  -731
  -769
  -810
  -851
  -896
  -942
  -990
  -1,040
  -1,093
  -1,148
  -1,206
  -1,266
  -1,330
  -1,396
  -1,466
  -1,539
  -1,616
  -1,696
  -1,781
  -1,870
  -1,963
  -2,061
  -2,164
Free cash flow, $m
  632
  690
  749
  812
  877
  945
  1,016
  1,090
  1,167
  1,246
  1,282
  1,368
  1,457
  1,550
  1,646
  1,747
  1,851
  1,959
  2,072
  2,189
  2,311
  2,439
  2,572
  2,710
  2,855
  3,006
  3,164
  3,329
  3,502
  3,683
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  493
  519
  542
  564
  587
  611
  635
  660
  686
  713
  741
  771
  801
  834
  868
  904
  942
  982
  1,024
  1,069
  1,116
  1,166
  1,218
  1,273
  1,331
  1,393
  1,457
  1,525
  1,597
  1,673
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  493
  519
  542
  564
  587
  611
  635
  660
  686
  713
  741
  771
  801
  834
  868
  904
  942
  982
  1,024
  1,069
  1,116
  1,166
  1,218
  1,273
  1,331
  1,393
  1,457
  1,525
  1,597
  1,673
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,125
  1,209
  1,291
  1,376
  1,465
  1,556
  1,651
  1,750
  1,853
  1,959
  2,023
  2,138
  2,259
  2,384
  2,514
  2,651
  2,793
  2,941
  3,096
  3,258
  3,427
  3,604
  3,790
  3,983
  4,186
  4,399
  4,621
  4,855
  5,099
  5,355
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -158
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -231
  -241
  -250
  -260
  -271
  -282
  -294
  -307
  -320
  -334
  -349
  -364
  -380
  -398
  -416
  -435
  -455
  -476
  -499
  -522
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  967
  1,047
  1,122
  1,200
  1,281
  1,365
  1,453
  1,544
  1,638
  1,737
  1,792
  1,898
  2,008
  2,123
  2,243
  2,368
  2,498
  2,634
  2,776
  2,924
  3,079
  3,240
  3,409
  3,586
  3,771
  3,964
  4,166
  4,378
  4,600
  4,833
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  927
  958
  976
  988
  993
  991
  982
  965
  941
  911
  851
  810
  764
  713
  659
  602
  544
  485
  427
  372
  318
  269
  223
  183
  147
  116
  89
  68
  50
  36
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. is a military shipbuilding company and a provider of professional services to partners in government and industry. The Company's business consists of the design, construction, repair and maintenance of nuclear-powered ships and non-nuclear ships for the United States Navy and coastal defense surface ships for the United States Coast Guard, as well as the refueling and overhaul and inactivation of nuclear-powered ships for the United States Navy. It operates through three segments: Ingalls Shipbuilding (Ingalls), Newport News Shipbuilding (Newport News) and Technical Solutions. Its Ingalls segment includes its non-nuclear ship design, construction, repair and maintenance businesses. Its Newport News includes all of its nuclear ship design, construction, overhaul, refueling, and repair and maintenance businesses. Its Technical Solutions segment provides a range of professional services to the governmental, energy, and oil and gas markets.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.8
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 6.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 19
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 51.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 15.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 77.3%
Total Debt to Equity 77.3%
Interest Coverage 12
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Return On Total Capital 20.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.9%
Return On Equity 36.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.4%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.8%
EBITDA Margin 14.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Operating Margin 12.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Net Profit Margin 8.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Effective Tax Rate 26.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.1%
Payout Ratio 17.1%

HII stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HII stock intrinsic value calculation we used $8176 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HII stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HII is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HII stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HII stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HII stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HII are equal to 39.6%.

Life of production assets of 20.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HII is equal to -4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1516 million for Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 41.534 million for Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.2 billion.

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