Intrinsic value of Himax Technologies ADR - HIMX

Previous Close

$7.57

  Intrinsic Value

$0.61

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

Previous close

$7.57

 
Intrinsic value

$0.61

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HIMX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  699
  715
  733
  754
  777
  802
  829
  859
  890
  925
  961
  1,000
  1,042
  1,086
  1,133
  1,182
  1,235
  1,290
  1,349
  1,411
  1,476
  1,545
  1,618
  1,695
  1,775
  1,860
  1,950
  2,044
  2,143
  2,247
Variable operating expenses, $m
  395
  404
  415
  426
  439
  453
  469
  485
  503
  522
  540
  562
  585
  610
  636
  664
  693
  725
  758
  792
  829
  868
  909
  952
  997
  1,045
  1,095
  1,148
  1,203
  1,262
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  303
  309
  316
  323
  330
  337
  345
  352
  360
  368
  376
  384
  393
  401
  410
  419
  429
  438
  448
  457
  467
  478
  488
  499
  510
  521
  533
  544
  556
  569
Total operating expenses, $m
  698
  713
  731
  749
  769
  790
  814
  837
  863
  890
  916
  946
  978
  1,011
  1,046
  1,083
  1,122
  1,163
  1,206
  1,249
  1,296
  1,346
  1,397
  1,451
  1,507
  1,566
  1,628
  1,692
  1,759
  1,831
Operating income, $m
  1
  1
  2
  5
  7
  11
  16
  21
  27
  34
  45
  54
  64
  75
  86
  99
  113
  128
  144
  161
  180
  200
  221
  244
  268
  294
  322
  352
  383
  416
EBITDA, $m
  14
  14
  16
  18
  22
  26
  31
  36
  43
  51
  59
  68
  79
  90
  102
  116
  130
  146
  163
  181
  201
  222
  244
  268
  294
  321
  350
  381
  414
  449
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  48
Earnings before tax, $m
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -2
  1
  5
  9
  15
  21
  31
  39
  47
  57
  67
  79
  91
  105
  119
  135
  152
  170
  190
  211
  233
  257
  282
  309
  338
  369
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  21
  25
  28
  32
  36
  41
  46
  51
  57
  63
  69
  76
  83
  91
  100
Net income, $m
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -2
  1
  3
  7
  11
  15
  22
  28
  35
  42
  49
  58
  67
  76
  87
  99
  111
  124
  138
  154
  170
  187
  206
  226
  247
  269

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  818
  837
  858
  883
  909
  939
  971
  1,005
  1,043
  1,083
  1,125
  1,171
  1,220
  1,271
  1,326
  1,384
  1,446
  1,511
  1,580
  1,652
  1,729
  1,810
  1,895
  1,984
  2,079
  2,178
  2,283
  2,393
  2,509
  2,631
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  818
  837
  858
  883
  909
  939
  971
  1,005
  1,043
  1,083
  1,125
  1,171
  1,220
  1,271
  1,326
  1,384
  1,446
  1,511
  1,580
  1,652
  1,729
  1,810
  1,895
  1,984
  2,079
  2,178
  2,283
  2,393
  2,509
  2,631
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.855
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.855
  0.854
  0.854
  0.855
  0.853
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
Average production assets, $m
  100
  102
  105
  108
  111
  115
  119
  123
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  202
  211
  221
  231
  242
  254
  266
  279
  292
  306
  321
Working capital, $m
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
Total debt, $m
  155
  163
  172
  182
  194
  207
  220
  235
  251
  269
  287
  307
  328
  350
  374
  399
  425
  453
  483
  514
  547
  582
  619
  657
  698
  741
  786
  833
  883
  936
Total liabilities, $m
  353
  361
  370
  380
  392
  405
  418
  433
  449
  467
  485
  505
  526
  548
  572
  597
  623
  651
  681
  712
  745
  780
  817
  855
  896
  939
  984
  1,032
  1,081
  1,134
Total equity, $m
  466
  476
  488
  502
  517
  534
  552
  572
  593
  616
  640
  666
  694
  723
  755
  788
  823
  860
  899
  940
  984
  1,030
  1,078
  1,129
  1,183
  1,240
  1,299
  1,362
  1,428
  1,497
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  819
  837
  858
  882
  909
  939
  970
  1,005
  1,042
  1,083
  1,125
  1,171
  1,220
  1,271
  1,327
  1,385
  1,446
  1,511
  1,580
  1,652
  1,729
  1,810
  1,895
  1,984
  2,079
  2,179
  2,283
  2,394
  2,509
  2,631
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -2
  1
  3
  7
  11
  15
  22
  28
  35
  42
  49
  58
  67
  76
  87
  99
  111
  124
  138
  154
  170
  187
  206
  226
  247
  269
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
Funds from operations, $m
  6
  6
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  31
  36
  42
  49
  57
  65
  74
  84
  95
  106
  119
  132
  146
  162
  178
  195
  214
  234
  255
  277
  301
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  6
  6
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  27
  32
  37
  43
  50
  57
  66
  75
  85
  95
  107
  119
  133
  147
  162
  179
  196
  215
  235
  256
  278
  302
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -46
Free cash flow, $m
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -4
  -2
  1
  3
  6
  10
  14
  18
  24
  30
  36
  44
  52
  60
  70
  80
  91
  103
  116
  130
  145
  160
  177
  195
  215
  235
  257
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  8
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  16
  18
  19
  19
  18
  16
  15
  13
  11
  8
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  24
  26
  28
  29
  30
  29
  29
  28
  27
  25
  20
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  38
  43
  51
  59
  67
  77
  87
  98
  110
  123
  136
  151
  167
  183
  201
  220
  240
  262
  285
  309
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
Cash available for distribution, $m
  2
  2
  4
  6
  9
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  14
  17
  23
  29
  36
  44
  52
  61
  71
  81
  93
  105
  118
  132
  147
  164
  181
  199
  219
  240
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  2
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  9
  9
  9
  8
  7
  7
  9
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  10
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.4
  98.7
  98.1
  97.4
  96.8
  96.3
  95.8
  95.4
  95.1
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9
  94.9

Himax Technologies, Inc. is a fabless semiconductor solution provider. The Company is engaged in display driver integrated circuits (IC) and timing controllers used in televisions, laptops, monitors, mobile phones, tablets, digital cameras, car navigation and other consumer electronics devices. The Company operates through two segments: Driver IC and Non-driver products. In addition, the Company designs and provides controllers for touch sensor displays, liquid crystal on silicon micro-displays used in palm-size projectors and head-mounted displays, light-emitting diode driver ICs, power management ICs, scaler products for monitors and projectors, video processing IC solutions and silicon IPs. It also offers digital camera solutions, including complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor image sensors and wafer level optics, which are used in a range of applications, such as mobile phone, tablet, laptop, televisions, personal computer camera, automobile, security and medical devices.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Himax Technologies ADR (HIMX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 51.1
Price to Sales 3.2
Price to Book 5.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 30.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 33.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -20%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -15%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 29.5%
Interest Coverage 60
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Total Capital 8.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Equity 11.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.1%
EBITDA Margin 9.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Operating Margin 7.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Net Profit Margin 6.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Effective Tax Rate 16.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 26%
Payout Ratio 43.1%

HIMX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HIMX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $685 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Himax Technologies ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Himax Technologies ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HIMX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HIMX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Himax Technologies ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Himax Technologies ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HIMX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 56.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $296 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HIMX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Himax Technologies ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Himax Technologies ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HIMX stock is equal to 0.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HIMX are equal to 14.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Himax Technologies ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HIMX is equal to -1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $457 million for Himax Technologies ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 344 million for Himax Technologies ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Himax Technologies ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Himax Technologies, Inc. Declares Cash Dividend for FY2017   [Jun-19-18 05:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Himax: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:35AM  Associated Press]
▶ Lumentum Holdings Is Just Getting Started   [May-05-18 02:04PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 4 Ways to Invest in the Computer Vision Market   [Apr-16-18 10:31AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Himax Technologies, Inc. Stock Lost 24.6% in March   [Apr-13-18 11:31AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Better Buy: Ambarella vs. Himax Technologies   [Mar-17-18 10:17AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Better Buy: Himax Technologies, Inc. vs. NVIDIA   [Mar-07-18 10:45AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Will VR Stocks Disrupt the Travel Industry?   [Mar-01-18 09:30AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Himax Technologies Is Down, but Not Out   [Feb-25-18 03:12PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Don't Lose Faith in Himax Technologies   [Feb-19-18 04:13PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Himax misses Street 4Q forecasts   [05:29AM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Himax Technologies, Inc. Stock Lost 18.1% in January   [Feb-12-18 04:25PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Top Stocks for Next-Gen Technologies   [01:04PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Where Will Himax Technologies, Inc. Be in 5 Years?   [Jan-31-18 05:23PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Unknown but Amazing Dividend Stocks   [Jan-29-18 03:55PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Himax Technologies, Inc. Stock Gained 72.5% in 2017   [Jan-10-18 04:28PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Is Himax Technology Stock's Run Over?   [Dec-28-17 08:13PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Himax Technologies, Inc. Popped 34% in November   [Dec-12-17 11:15AM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Growth Stocks for in-the-Know Investors   [Dec-05-17 12:52PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Growth Stocks for Successful Investors   [Dec-01-17 06:08AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Is Himax Technologies a Buy?   [Nov-30-17 04:55PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Top NasdaqGS High Growth Stock   [Nov-28-17 11:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Two Stocks Set to Pop   [Nov-22-17 02:01PM  CNBC Videos]
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