Intrinsic value of Herbalife Nutrition - HLF

Previous Close

$54.79

  Intrinsic Value

$23.57

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-57%

Previous close

$54.79

 
Intrinsic value

$23.57

 
Up/down potential

-57%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HLF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.10
  11.39
  10.75
  10.18
  9.66
  9.19
  8.77
  8.40
  8.06
  7.75
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.32
  6.18
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
Revenue, $m
  4,963
  5,529
  6,123
  6,746
  7,398
  8,078
  8,787
  9,524
  10,292
  11,089
  11,918
  12,780
  13,675
  14,606
  15,573
  16,579
  17,626
  18,716
  19,852
  21,035
  22,268
  23,554
  24,897
  26,298
  27,762
  29,292
  30,891
  32,563
  34,312
  36,142
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,452
  4,955
  5,483
  6,037
  6,616
  7,220
  7,850
  8,506
  9,188
  9,897
  10,593
  11,359
  12,154
  12,982
  13,841
  14,736
  15,667
  16,635
  17,644
  18,696
  19,792
  20,935
  22,129
  23,374
  24,675
  26,035
  27,456
  28,942
  30,497
  32,124
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,452
  4,955
  5,483
  6,037
  6,616
  7,220
  7,850
  8,506
  9,188
  9,897
  10,593
  11,359
  12,154
  12,982
  13,841
  14,736
  15,667
  16,635
  17,644
  18,696
  19,792
  20,935
  22,129
  23,374
  24,675
  26,035
  27,456
  28,942
  30,497
  32,124
Operating income, $m
  511
  574
  640
  709
  782
  857
  936
  1,018
  1,104
  1,192
  1,325
  1,421
  1,521
  1,624
  1,732
  1,843
  1,960
  2,081
  2,207
  2,339
  2,476
  2,619
  2,768
  2,924
  3,087
  3,257
  3,435
  3,621
  3,815
  4,019
EBITDA, $m
  635
  708
  784
  863
  947
  1,034
  1,125
  1,219
  1,317
  1,419
  1,525
  1,636
  1,750
  1,869
  1,993
  2,122
  2,256
  2,395
  2,541
  2,692
  2,850
  3,015
  3,186
  3,366
  3,553
  3,749
  3,954
  4,168
  4,391
  4,626
Interest expense (income), $m
  45
  197
  138
  162
  187
  214
  242
  271
  301
  333
  366
  400
  435
  472
  511
  551
  592
  635
  680
  726
  775
  826
  879
  934
  991
  1,051
  1,114
  1,179
  1,248
  1,319
  1,394
Earnings before tax, $m
  314
  436
  478
  522
  568
  616
  665
  717
  771
  827
  925
  986
  1,048
  1,113
  1,181
  1,252
  1,325
  1,401
  1,481
  1,564
  1,650
  1,741
  1,835
  1,933
  2,036
  2,143
  2,256
  2,373
  2,496
  2,625
Tax expense, $m
  85
  118
  129
  141
  153
  166
  180
  194
  208
  223
  250
  266
  283
  301
  319
  338
  358
  378
  400
  422
  446
  470
  495
  522
  550
  579
  609
  641
  674
  709
Net income, $m
  229
  319
  349
  381
  415
  449
  486
  523
  563
  603
  675
  719
  765
  813
  862
  914
  967
  1,023
  1,081
  1,142
  1,205
  1,271
  1,339
  1,411
  1,486
  1,565
  1,647
  1,732
  1,822
  1,916

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,714
  3,023
  3,348
  3,689
  4,045
  4,417
  4,804
  5,207
  5,627
  6,063
  6,516
  6,987
  7,477
  7,986
  8,515
  9,065
  9,637
  10,233
  10,854
  11,501
  12,175
  12,878
  13,612
  14,379
  15,179
  16,015
  16,889
  17,804
  18,760
  19,761
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,714
  3,023
  3,348
  3,689
  4,045
  4,417
  4,804
  5,207
  5,627
  6,063
  6,516
  6,987
  7,477
  7,986
  8,515
  9,065
  9,637
  10,233
  10,854
  11,501
  12,175
  12,878
  13,612
  14,379
  15,179
  16,015
  16,889
  17,804
  18,760
  19,761
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
  1.829
Average production assets, $m
  650
  724
  802
  884
  969
  1,058
  1,151
  1,248
  1,348
  1,453
  1,561
  1,674
  1,791
  1,913
  2,040
  2,172
  2,309
  2,452
  2,601
  2,756
  2,917
  3,086
  3,261
  3,445
  3,637
  3,837
  4,047
  4,266
  4,495
  4,735
Working capital, $m
  -248
  -276
  -306
  -337
  -370
  -404
  -439
  -476
  -515
  -554
  -596
  -639
  -684
  -730
  -779
  -829
  -881
  -936
  -993
  -1,052
  -1,113
  -1,178
  -1,245
  -1,315
  -1,388
  -1,465
  -1,545
  -1,628
  -1,716
  -1,807
Total debt, $m
  1,583
  1,861
  2,154
  2,460
  2,781
  3,116
  3,464
  3,827
  4,205
  4,597
  5,005
  5,429
  5,870
  6,328
  6,804
  7,299
  7,814
  8,351
  8,909
  9,491
  10,098
  10,731
  11,392
  12,081
  12,802
  13,554
  14,341
  15,164
  16,025
  16,925
Total liabilities, $m
  2,442
  2,721
  3,013
  3,320
  3,640
  3,975
  4,324
  4,687
  5,064
  5,457
  5,865
  6,289
  6,729
  7,187
  7,663
  8,158
  8,673
  9,210
  9,768
  10,351
  10,957
  11,590
  12,251
  12,941
  13,661
  14,414
  15,201
  16,023
  16,884
  17,785
Total equity, $m
  271
  302
  335
  369
  404
  442
  480
  521
  563
  606
  652
  699
  748
  799
  851
  906
  964
  1,023
  1,085
  1,150
  1,217
  1,288
  1,361
  1,438
  1,518
  1,602
  1,689
  1,780
  1,876
  1,976
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,713
  3,023
  3,348
  3,689
  4,044
  4,417
  4,804
  5,208
  5,627
  6,063
  6,517
  6,988
  7,477
  7,986
  8,514
  9,064
  9,637
  10,233
  10,853
  11,501
  12,174
  12,878
  13,612
  14,379
  15,179
  16,016
  16,890
  17,803
  18,760
  19,761
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.830
  6.160
  6.430
  6.670
  6.880
  7.050
  7.210
  7.350
  7.470
  7.580
  7.680
  7.770
  7.850
  7.920
  7.990
  8.050
  8.110
  8.160
  8.210
  8.250
  8.290
  8.330
  8.370
  8.400
  8.430
  8.460
  8.490
  8.520
  8.540
  8.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  229
  319
  349
  381
  415
  449
  486
  523
  563
  603
  675
  719
  765
  813
  862
  914
  967
  1,023
  1,081
  1,142
  1,205
  1,271
  1,339
  1,411
  1,486
  1,565
  1,647
  1,732
  1,822
  1,916
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  124
  134
  144
  154
  165
  176
  188
  201
  214
  227
  200
  215
  230
  245
  262
  278
  296
  314
  333
  353
  374
  396
  418
  442
  466
  492
  519
  547
  576
  607
Funds from operations, $m
  353
  452
  493
  535
  579
  626
  674
  724
  776
  830
  876
  934
  995
  1,058
  1,124
  1,192
  1,263
  1,337
  1,414
  1,495
  1,579
  1,666
  1,757
  1,853
  1,952
  2,057
  2,165
  2,279
  2,398
  2,523
Change in working capital, $m
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -92
Cash from operations, $m
  380
  480
  522
  566
  612
  660
  709
  761
  814
  870
  917
  977
  1,040
  1,105
  1,172
  1,242
  1,316
  1,392
  1,471
  1,554
  1,640
  1,730
  1,825
  1,923
  2,026
  2,133
  2,245
  2,363
  2,486
  2,614
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -74
  -83
  -93
  -103
  -113
  -124
  -136
  -148
  -160
  -173
  -186
  -200
  -215
  -230
  -245
  -262
  -278
  -296
  -314
  -333
  -353
  -374
  -396
  -418
  -442
  -466
  -492
  -519
  -547
  -576
New CAPEX, $m
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -229
  -240
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -145
  -157
  -171
  -185
  -198
  -213
  -229
  -245
  -261
  -277
  -295
  -313
  -332
  -352
  -372
  -394
  -415
  -439
  -463
  -488
  -515
  -543
  -572
  -602
  -634
  -666
  -701
  -738
  -776
  -816
Free cash flow, $m
  235
  323
  352
  382
  413
  446
  481
  517
  554
  593
  622
  664
  708
  753
  800
  849
  900
  953
  1,008
  1,066
  1,126
  1,188
  1,253
  1,321
  1,392
  1,466
  1,544
  1,625
  1,710
  1,798
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -685
  278
  292
  307
  321
  335
  349
  363
  378
  393
  408
  424
  441
  458
  476
  495
  515
  536
  559
  582
  607
  633
  661
  690
  720
  753
  787
  823
  861
  901
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  749
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  64
  278
  292
  307
  321
  335
  349
  363
  378
  393
  408
  424
  441
  458
  476
  495
  515
  536
  559
  582
  607
  633
  661
  690
  720
  753
  787
  823
  861
  901
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  299
  601
  644
  688
  734
  781
  830
  880
  932
  985
  1,030
  1,088
  1,148
  1,211
  1,276
  1,344
  1,415
  1,489
  1,567
  1,648
  1,732
  1,821
  1,914
  2,011
  2,113
  2,219
  2,331
  2,448
  2,570
  2,699
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -978
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  372
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -307
  570
  612
  654
  698
  744
  791
  839
  890
  942
  985
  1,041
  1,099
  1,160
  1,223
  1,289
  1,358
  1,430
  1,505
  1,583
  1,665
  1,751
  1,840
  1,934
  2,032
  2,135
  2,243
  2,356
  2,475
  2,599
Discount rate, %
  5.10
  5.36
  5.62
  5.90
  6.20
  6.51
  6.83
  7.18
  7.54
  7.91
  8.31
  8.72
  9.16
  9.62
  10.10
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.27
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.66
  16.45
  17.27
  18.13
  19.04
  19.99
  20.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -292
  514
  519
  520
  517
  510
  498
  482
  463
  440
  409
  382
  352
  321
  289
  257
  226
  195
  167
  140
  116
  94
  75
  59
  45
  34
  25
  18
  13
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Herbalife Ltd. is a global nutrition company. The Company develops and sells weight management, healthy meals and snacks, sports and fitness, energy and targeted nutritional products, as well as personal care products. Its operating segments are based on geographical operations in six regions: North America; Mexico; South and Central America; Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA); Asia Pacific, and China. The Company categorizes its products into five groups: weight management, targeted nutrition, energy, sports and fitness, outer nutrition, and literature, promotional and other. As of December 31, 2016, it marketed and sold approximately 140 products encompassing over 4,700 stock keeping units (SKUs) globally. Its product categories include meal replacement; protein shakes; drink mixes; dietary and nutritional supplements containing herbs, vitamins, minerals and other natural ingredients; facial skin care; body care; hair care products; sales tools, and educational materials.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Herbalife Nutrition (HLF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.6
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 26
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 81%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 84
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 733.7%
Total Debt to Equity 738.8%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Return On Total Capital 16.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.8%
Return On Equity 366.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 158.7%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 81%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 80.7%
EBITDA Margin 11.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Operating Margin 10.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Net Profit Margin 5.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Effective Tax Rate 28.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

HLF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HLF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4427.7 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Herbalife Nutrition. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Herbalife Nutrition. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HLF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.1%, whose default value for HLF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Herbalife Nutrition, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Herbalife Nutrition.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HLF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HLF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.7% for Herbalife Nutrition.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Herbalife Nutrition. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HLF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HLF are equal to 13.1%.

Life of production assets of 7.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Herbalife Nutrition operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HLF is equal to -5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-334.7 million for Herbalife Nutrition - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 157.172 million for Herbalife Nutrition is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Herbalife Nutrition at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.6 billion.

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