Intrinsic value of Harmonic - HLIT

Previous Close

$5.84

  Intrinsic Value

$1.08

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-81%

Previous close

$5.84

 
Intrinsic value

$1.08

 
Up/down potential

-81%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HLIT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.50
  18.95
  17.56
  16.30
  15.17
  14.15
  13.24
  12.41
  11.67
  11.01
  10.40
  9.86
  9.38
  8.94
  8.55
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.33
  7.09
  6.88
  6.70
  6.53
  6.37
  6.24
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
Revenue, $m
  432
  513
  604
  702
  809
  923
  1,045
  1,175
  1,312
  1,456
  1,608
  1,767
  1,932
  2,105
  2,285
  2,472
  2,667
  2,869
  3,079
  3,297
  3,524
  3,760
  4,006
  4,261
  4,527
  4,804
  5,092
  5,392
  5,706
  6,033
Variable operating expenses, $m
  389
  457
  533
  616
  705
  801
  904
  1,012
  1,128
  1,249
  1,349
  1,483
  1,622
  1,767
  1,918
  2,075
  2,238
  2,408
  2,584
  2,767
  2,958
  3,156
  3,362
  3,576
  3,799
  4,032
  4,273
  4,526
  4,789
  5,063
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  106
  109
  111
  113
  116
  119
  121
  124
  127
  129
  132
  135
  138
  141
  144
  147
  151
  154
  157
  161
  164
  168
  172
  175
  179
  183
  187
  191
  195
  200
Total operating expenses, $m
  495
  566
  644
  729
  821
  920
  1,025
  1,136
  1,255
  1,378
  1,481
  1,618
  1,760
  1,908
  2,062
  2,222
  2,389
  2,562
  2,741
  2,928
  3,122
  3,324
  3,534
  3,751
  3,978
  4,215
  4,460
  4,717
  4,984
  5,263
Operating income, $m
  -63
  -53
  -40
  -27
  -12
  3
  20
  39
  58
  78
  126
  149
  173
  197
  223
  250
  278
  307
  338
  369
  402
  437
  472
  510
  548
  589
  631
  675
  722
  770
EBITDA, $m
  -22
  -8
  7
  24
  43
  62
  84
  107
  131
  156
  183
  211
  241
  272
  304
  337
  372
  409
  446
  486
  527
  569
  614
  660
  708
  759
  811
  866
  923
  983
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  11
  16
  22
  28
  35
  43
  51
  59
  68
  78
  88
  98
  109
  121
  133
  145
  158
  172
  186
  200
  216
  231
  248
  265
  283
  301
  320
  340
  361
  383
Earnings before tax, $m
  -75
  -69
  -63
  -55
  -48
  -39
  -30
  -20
  -10
  1
  39
  51
  63
  77
  90
  105
  120
  135
  152
  169
  187
  205
  224
  245
  266
  288
  311
  335
  360
  387
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  10
  14
  17
  21
  24
  28
  32
  37
  41
  46
  50
  55
  61
  66
  72
  78
  84
  90
  97
  104
Net income, $m
  -75
  -69
  -63
  -55
  -48
  -39
  -30
  -20
  -10
  1
  28
  37
  46
  56
  66
  76
  87
  99
  111
  123
  136
  150
  164
  179
  194
  210
  227
  245
  263
  282

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  612
  728
  856
  996
  1,147
  1,309
  1,482
  1,666
  1,861
  2,066
  2,281
  2,506
  2,741
  2,986
  3,241
  3,506
  3,782
  4,069
  4,367
  4,677
  4,999
  5,334
  5,682
  6,044
  6,421
  6,814
  7,222
  7,649
  8,093
  8,557
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  612
  728
  856
  996
  1,147
  1,309
  1,482
  1,666
  1,861
  2,066
  2,281
  2,506
  2,741
  2,986
  3,241
  3,506
  3,782
  4,069
  4,367
  4,677
  4,999
  5,334
  5,682
  6,044
  6,421
  6,814
  7,222
  7,649
  8,093
  8,557
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.706
  0.705
  0.706
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
Average production assets, $m
  197
  234
  275
  320
  369
  421
  477
  536
  598
  664
  733
  806
  881
  960
  1,042
  1,127
  1,216
  1,308
  1,404
  1,504
  1,607
  1,715
  1,827
  1,943
  2,064
  2,190
  2,322
  2,459
  2,602
  2,751
Working capital, $m
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -39
  -44
  -51
  -57
  -65
  -72
  -80
  -88
  -97
  -106
  -116
  -126
  -136
  -147
  -158
  -169
  -181
  -194
  -207
  -220
  -234
  -249
  -264
  -280
  -297
  -314
  -332
Total debt, $m
  191
  257
  330
  410
  496
  588
  687
  792
  903
  1,019
  1,142
  1,270
  1,404
  1,544
  1,689
  1,841
  1,998
  2,161
  2,331
  2,508
  2,691
  2,882
  3,081
  3,287
  3,502
  3,726
  3,959
  4,202
  4,455
  4,719
Total liabilities, $m
  349
  415
  488
  568
  654
  746
  845
  950
  1,061
  1,177
  1,300
  1,428
  1,562
  1,702
  1,847
  1,999
  2,156
  2,319
  2,489
  2,666
  2,849
  3,040
  3,239
  3,445
  3,660
  3,884
  4,117
  4,360
  4,613
  4,877
Total equity, $m
  263
  313
  368
  428
  493
  563
  637
  717
  800
  888
  981
  1,077
  1,178
  1,284
  1,394
  1,508
  1,626
  1,750
  1,878
  2,011
  2,150
  2,294
  2,443
  2,599
  2,761
  2,930
  3,106
  3,289
  3,480
  3,679
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  612
  728
  856
  996
  1,147
  1,309
  1,482
  1,667
  1,861
  2,065
  2,281
  2,505
  2,740
  2,986
  3,241
  3,507
  3,782
  4,069
  4,367
  4,677
  4,999
  5,334
  5,682
  6,044
  6,421
  6,814
  7,223
  7,649
  8,093
  8,556
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.730
  0.820
  0.900
  0.960
  1.010
  1.040
  1.080
  1.110
  1.130
  1.150
  1.160
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -75
  -69
  -63
  -55
  -48
  -39
  -30
  -20
  -10
  1
  28
  37
  46
  56
  66
  76
  87
  99
  111
  123
  136
  150
  164
  179
  194
  210
  227
  245
  263
  282
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  57
  62
  68
  74
  81
  87
  94
  101
  109
  117
  125
  133
  142
  151
  160
  170
  180
  191
  202
  213
Funds from operations, $m
  -33
  -24
  -15
  -4
  7
  20
  33
  47
  63
  78
  85
  99
  115
  130
  147
  164
  182
  200
  220
  240
  261
  283
  305
  329
  354
  380
  407
  435
  465
  496
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
Cash from operations, $m
  -29
  -20
  -10
  1
  13
  26
  40
  55
  70
  86
  93
  108
  124
  140
  157
  174
  192
  211
  231
  252
  273
  296
  319
  343
  369
  395
  423
  452
  482
  513
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -57
  -62
  -68
  -74
  -81
  -87
  -94
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -125
  -133
  -142
  -151
  -160
  -170
  -180
  -191
  -202
New CAPEX, $m
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -149
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -46
  -52
  -59
  -66
  -74
  -81
  -89
  -96
  -105
  -112
  -120
  -129
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -166
  -176
  -186
  -197
  -209
  -221
  -233
  -245
  -258
  -272
  -286
  -301
  -317
  -334
  -351
Free cash flow, $m
  -75
  -72
  -69
  -65
  -60
  -55
  -48
  -41
  -34
  -26
  -27
  -21
  -14
  -7
  0
  8
  16
  25
  34
  43
  53
  63
  74
  85
  97
  109
  121
  135
  148
  163
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  59
  66
  73
  80
  86
  93
  99
  105
  111
  117
  123
  128
  134
  140
  145
  151
  157
  164
  170
  177
  184
  191
  198
  206
  215
  224
  233
  243
  253
  264
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  120
  119
  118
  115
  113
  109
  105
  100
  94
  88
  64
  60
  55
  50
  44
  38
  31
  25
  17
  10
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  179
  185
  191
  195
  199
  202
  204
  205
  205
  205
  187
  188
  189
  190
  189
  189
  188
  189
  187
  187
  186
  191
  198
  206
  215
  224
  233
  243
  253
  264
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  104
  113
  121
  130
  139
  147
  155
  163
  171
  178
  160
  167
  174
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  221
  230
  239
  254
  272
  292
  312
  333
  355
  378
  402
  427
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -120
  -119
  -118
  -115
  -113
  -109
  -105
  -100
  -94
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -199
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -16
  -6
  4
  15
  26
  38
  50
  63
  77
  90
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  110
  123
  136
  150
  164
  179
  194
  211
  228
Discount rate, %
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.12
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.82
  25.01
  26.26
  27.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -15
  -5
  3
  11
  18
  23
  28
  31
  33
  34
  21
  19
  17
  14
  12
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  80.8
  67.5
  58.1
  51.1
  45.9
  41.8
  38.7
  36.3
  34.3
  32.7
  31.7
  30.9
  30.3
  29.7
  29.3
  28.9
  28.7
  28.5
  28.4
  28.3
  28.3
  28.3
  28.3
  28.3
  28.3
  28.3
  28.3
  28.3
  28.3
  28.3

Harmonic Inc. (Harmonic) designs, manufactures and sells video infrastructure products, and system solutions. The Company has two segments: Video and Cable Edge. Harmonic provides technical support and professional services to its customers around the world. The Video segment sells video processing and production, and playout solutions and services to broadcast and media companies, streaming media companies, cable operators, and satellite and telecommunications (telco), and pay television (TV) service providers. Its Cable Edge business sells cable edge solutions and related services to cable operators around the world. The Video segment offers a range of products and solutions, as well as software-based media processing platforms. The Company's Narrowcast Services Gateway (NSG) products are integrated edge gateway products that integrate routing, multiplexing, scrambling and modulation into a single package for the delivery of narrowcast services to subscribers over cable networks.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Harmonic (HLIT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -6.4
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow -30.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 7.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 43.2%
Total Debt to Equity 45.8%
Interest Coverage -15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -12.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.1%
Return On Total Capital -17.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.7%
Return On Equity -24%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.1%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.1%
EBITDA Margin -10.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.9%
Operating Margin -17.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -19.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.7%
Net Profit Margin -17.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.9%
Effective Tax Rate 10%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -33%
Payout Ratio 0%

HLIT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HLIT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $358.246 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Harmonic. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Harmonic. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HLIT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.7%, whose default value for HLIT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Harmonic, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Harmonic.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HLIT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $104 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HLIT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.6% for Harmonic.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Harmonic. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HLIT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HLIT are equal to 45.6%.

Life of production assets of 12.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Harmonic operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HLIT is equal to -5.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $218.343 million for Harmonic - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 86.031 million for Harmonic is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Harmonic at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Harmonic: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ Harmonic: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-30-18 04:38PM  Associated Press]
▶ Harmonic Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [03:00PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Harmonic: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-30-18 04:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ Harmonic Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [01:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Harmonic reports 4Q loss   [Feb-28-18 07:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ Harmonic Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [01:00PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Harmonic Q4 Earnings Outlook   [09:42AM  Benzinga]
▶ Harmonic Appoints David Krall to its Board of Directors   [Feb-12-18 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harmonic, Inc. : December 25, 2017   [Dec-25-17 11:59AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harmonic, Inc. : December 14, 2017   [Dec-14-17 01:29PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harmonic, Inc. : November 8, 2017   [Nov-08-17 06:15PM  Capital Cube]
▶ YES Launches Live UHD-HDR Channel With Harmonic   [Nov-07-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Why Harmonic Inc. Stock Popped Today   [Oct-31-17 01:53PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Harmonic reports 3Q loss   [Oct-30-17 05:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Harmonic Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [11:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harmonic, Inc. : October 23, 2017   [Oct-23-17 10:41AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harmonic, Inc. : October 11, 2017   [Oct-11-17 11:38AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harmonic, Inc. : September 6, 2017   [Sep-05-17 08:55PM  Capital Cube]

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