Intrinsic value of Nobilis Health - HLTH

Previous Close

$0.55

  Intrinsic Value

$3.88

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+605%

Previous close

$0.55

 
Intrinsic value

$3.88

 
Up/down potential

+605%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of HLTH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  306
  313
  321
  330
  340
  351
  363
  376
  390
  405
  421
  438
  456
  475
  496
  517
  540
  565
  590
  617
  646
  676
  708
  742
  777
  814
  853
  894
  938
  983
Variable operating expenses, $m
  59
  60
  61
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  231
  236
  241
  247
  252
  258
  263
  269
  275
  281
  287
  293
  300
  306
  313
  320
  327
  334
  342
  349
  357
  365
  373
  381
  389
  398
  407
  416
  425
  434
Total operating expenses, $m
  290
  296
  302
  309
  315
  323
  329
  337
  345
  353
  343
  351
  360
  369
  379
  388
  398
  409
  420
  431
  442
  454
  467
  479
  492
  506
  520
  534
  549
  564
Operating income, $m
  16
  17
  19
  21
  25
  29
  33
  39
  45
  52
  78
  86
  96
  106
  117
  129
  142
  156
  170
  187
  204
  222
  242
  262
  285
  308
  334
  360
  389
  419
EBITDA, $m
  42
  43
  45
  48
  51
  55
  60
  66
  73
  80
  88
  97
  107
  117
  129
  141
  155
  169
  185
  201
  219
  238
  259
  280
  303
  328
  354
  382
  411
  443
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
Earnings before tax, $m
  9
  9
  11
  13
  16
  19
  23
  28
  34
  40
  65
  73
  81
  90
  101
  111
  123
  136
  150
  164
  180
  197
  215
  234
  255
  277
  300
  325
  351
  379
Tax expense, $m
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  37
  40
  44
  49
  53
  58
  63
  69
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
Net income, $m
  6
  7
  8
  9
  12
  14
  17
  21
  25
  29
  48
  53
  59
  66
  73
  81
  90
  99
  109
  120
  132
  144
  157
  171
  186
  202
  219
  237
  257
  277

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  439
  449
  461
  474
  488
  504
  521
  540
  560
  581
  604
  629
  655
  683
  712
  743
  776
  811
  848
  887
  928
  972
  1,017
  1,065
  1,116
  1,170
  1,226
  1,285
  1,347
  1,413
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  439
  449
  461
  474
  488
  504
  521
  540
  560
  581
  604
  629
  655
  683
  712
  743
  776
  811
  848
  887
  928
  972
  1,017
  1,065
  1,116
  1,170
  1,226
  1,285
  1,347
  1,413
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.697
  0.697
  0.696
  0.696
  0.697
  0.696
  0.697
  0.696
  0.696
  0.697
  0.697
  0.696
  0.696
  0.695
  0.697
  0.696
  0.696
  0.697
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.695
  0.696
  0.697
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
Average production assets, $m
  112
  115
  118
  121
  125
  129
  133
  138
  143
  148
  154
  161
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  217
  227
  237
  248
  260
  272
  285
  299
  313
  328
  344
  361
Working capital, $m
  88
  90
  92
  95
  98
  101
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
  224
  234
  246
  258
  270
  283
Total debt, $m
  142
  149
  156
  165
  174
  184
  196
  208
  221
  235
  250
  266
  283
  301
  320
  340
  362
  384
  408
  434
  461
  489
  519
  550
  583
  618
  654
  693
  733
  776
Total liabilities, $m
  286
  293
  300
  308
  318
  328
  339
  351
  364
  378
  393
  409
  426
  444
  464
  484
  505
  528
  552
  577
  604
  632
  662
  694
  727
  761
  798
  836
  877
  920
Total equity, $m
  153
  157
  161
  165
  170
  176
  182
  188
  195
  203
  211
  219
  229
  238
  248
  259
  271
  283
  296
  310
  324
  339
  355
  372
  390
  408
  428
  448
  470
  493
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  439
  450
  461
  473
  488
  504
  521
  539
  559
  581
  604
  628
  655
  682
  712
  743
  776
  811
  848
  887
  928
  971
  1,017
  1,066
  1,117
  1,169
  1,226
  1,284
  1,347
  1,413
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  1.000
  1.020
  1.050
  1.080
  1.100
  1.130
  1.160
  1.180
  1.210
  1.240
  1.260
  1.290
  1.310
  1.330
  1.360
  1.380
  1.400
  1.420
  1.440
  1.460
  1.480
  1.500
  1.510
  1.530
  1.540
  1.560
  1.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349
  0.349

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  6
  7
  8
  9
  12
  14
  17
  21
  25
  29
  48
  53
  59
  66
  73
  81
  90
  99
  109
  120
  132
  144
  157
  171
  186
  202
  219
  237
  257
  277
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  26
  26
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  27
  28
  28
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Funds from operations, $m
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  41
  44
  48
  52
  57
  58
  64
  70
  78
  85
  94
  103
  113
  124
  135
  147
  160
  174
  189
  205
  222
  240
  259
  279
  301
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
Cash from operations, $m
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  53
  53
  59
  65
  72
  79
  88
  96
  106
  116
  127
  139
  152
  165
  179
  195
  211
  228
  247
  267
  288
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
Free cash flow, $m
  21
  21
  21
  22
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  37
  42
  48
  54
  60
  68
  75
  84
  93
  103
  114
  125
  137
  150
  164
  179
  194
  211
  229
  248
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  5
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  5
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  26
  27
  29
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  47
  52
  52
  58
  65
  72
  80
  88
  97
  107
  117
  128
  140
  153
  167
  181
  197
  213
  231
  250
  270
  291
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  24
  24
  25
  26
  28
  30
  33
  36
  40
  44
  44
  50
  56
  62
  69
  77
  85
  95
  104
  115
  126
  138
  151
  165
  179
  195
  211
  229
  248
  268
Discount rate, %
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.12
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.82
  25.01
  26.26
  27.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  22
  21
  20
  19
  19
  18
  18
  18
  17
  17
  14
  14
  13
  12
  11
  10
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Nobilis Health Corp. (Nobilis) owns and manages healthcare facilities in the States of Texas and Arizona, consisting primarily of ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs) and acute-care and surgical hospitals. The Company's segments include Medical Services, Marketing Services and Corporate. The Medical Services segment owns and manages approximately nine healthcare facilities in Texas and Arizona; over four hospitals, and approximately five ambulatory surgery centers. The Marketing Services segment provides marketing services, patient education services and patient care co-ordination management services. The Company provides care across a range of specialties in its facilities, including orthopedic surgery, podiatric surgery, pain management, gastro-intestinal, gynecology, and general surgery. Many of its surgical patients require additional complementary healthcare services, and its suite of ancillary services, including surgical assist, intraoperative neuromonitoring and anesthesia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Nobilis Health (HLTH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

HLTH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HLTH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $299.717 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Nobilis Health. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Nobilis Health. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HLTH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.7%, whose default value for HLTH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Nobilis Health, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Nobilis Health.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HLTH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 19.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $226 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HLTH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Nobilis Health.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Nobilis Health. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HLTH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HLTH are equal to 36.7%.

Life of production assets of 15.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Nobilis Health operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HLTH is equal to 28.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $150.545 million for Nobilis Health - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 78.25 million for Nobilis Health is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Nobilis Health at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Nobilis Health Announces Filing of Form 12b-25   [Nov-09-18 05:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Nobilis Health Corp. to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-02-18 07:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Nobilis Health: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:23AM  Associated Press]
▶ Nobilis Health: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-08-18 06:17AM  Associated Press]
▶ Nobilis Health Opens NEO   [Apr-03-18 11:51AM  Business Wire]
▶ Nobilis Health posts 4Q profit   [Mar-08-18 06:19AM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 HMO Stocks to Continue Rewarding Investors   [Jan-22-18 02:35PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Nobilis Health Appoints New Board Member   [06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Nobilis Health Expands Footprint to El Paso, TX   [Dec-04-17 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Nobilis Health posts 3Q profit   [Nov-06-17 06:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ Nobilis Health to Present at The MicroCap Conference   [Sep-28-17 04:54PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Nobilis Health Corp. Issues Hurricane Harvey Update   [Sep-05-17 06:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Nobilis Health posts 2Q profit   [Aug-04-17 01:35AM  Associated Press]
▶ LD Micro Index Reconstitution as of August 1, 2017   [Aug-01-17 09:40AM  ACCESSWIRE]
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▶ Nobilis Health reports 1Q loss   [May-02-17 06:23AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Nobilis Health Corp. : May 1, 2017   [May-01-17 03:58PM  Capital Cube]

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