Intrinsic value of Houghton Mifflin Harcourt - HMHC

Previous Close

$8.65

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$8.65

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HMHC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,436
  1,469
  1,506
  1,549
  1,596
  1,647
  1,703
  1,764
  1,830
  1,900
  1,975
  2,055
  2,140
  2,231
  2,327
  2,429
  2,537
  2,651
  2,772
  2,899
  3,034
  3,176
  3,325
  3,482
  3,648
  3,823
  4,006
  4,200
  4,403
  4,617
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,759
  1,796
  1,839
  1,886
  1,939
  1,997
  2,061
  2,129
  2,203
  2,282
  2,228
  2,318
  2,414
  2,517
  2,625
  2,740
  2,862
  2,991
  3,127
  3,270
  3,422
  3,582
  3,750
  3,928
  4,115
  4,312
  4,519
  4,737
  4,967
  5,208
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,759
  1,796
  1,839
  1,886
  1,939
  1,997
  2,061
  2,129
  2,203
  2,282
  2,228
  2,318
  2,414
  2,517
  2,625
  2,740
  2,862
  2,991
  3,127
  3,270
  3,422
  3,582
  3,750
  3,928
  4,115
  4,312
  4,519
  4,737
  4,967
  5,208
Operating income, $m
  -323
  -327
  -332
  -338
  -344
  -350
  -357
  -365
  -374
  -382
  -253
  -263
  -274
  -286
  -298
  -311
  -325
  -339
  -355
  -371
  -388
  -406
  -426
  -446
  -467
  -489
  -513
  -537
  -564
  -591
EBITDA, $m
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
Interest expense (income), $m
  35
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  89
  95
  101
  108
  115
  123
  131
  139
  148
  158
  167
  178
  189
  201
  213
  226
  240
  254
Earnings before tax, $m
  -366
  -372
  -380
  -388
  -397
  -406
  -417
  -429
  -442
  -455
  -330
  -346
  -363
  -380
  -399
  -419
  -440
  -462
  -485
  -510
  -536
  -564
  -593
  -624
  -656
  -690
  -726
  -763
  -803
  -845
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -366
  -372
  -380
  -388
  -397
  -406
  -417
  -429
  -442
  -455
  -330
  -346
  -363
  -380
  -399
  -419
  -440
  -462
  -485
  -510
  -536
  -564
  -593
  -624
  -656
  -690
  -726
  -763
  -803
  -845

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,615
  2,675
  2,744
  2,821
  2,907
  3,001
  3,103
  3,213
  3,332
  3,460
  3,597
  3,743
  3,899
  4,064
  4,239
  4,425
  4,622
  4,830
  5,049
  5,281
  5,526
  5,784
  6,056
  6,343
  6,645
  6,963
  7,298
  7,650
  8,020
  8,410
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,615
  2,675
  2,744
  2,821
  2,907
  3,001
  3,103
  3,213
  3,332
  3,460
  3,597
  3,743
  3,899
  4,064
  4,239
  4,425
  4,622
  4,830
  5,049
  5,281
  5,526
  5,784
  6,056
  6,343
  6,645
  6,963
  7,298
  7,650
  8,020
  8,410
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
Average production assets, $m
  897
  918
  942
  968
  997
  1,030
  1,065
  1,103
  1,143
  1,187
  1,234
  1,284
  1,338
  1,394
  1,455
  1,518
  1,586
  1,657
  1,733
  1,812
  1,896
  1,985
  2,078
  2,176
  2,280
  2,389
  2,504
  2,625
  2,752
  2,886
Working capital, $m
  -113
  -116
  -119
  -122
  -126
  -130
  -135
  -139
  -145
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -229
  -240
  -251
  -263
  -275
  -288
  -302
  -317
  -332
  -348
  -365
Total debt, $m
  804
  846
  893
  946
  1,005
  1,070
  1,141
  1,217
  1,299
  1,387
  1,482
  1,583
  1,690
  1,804
  1,925
  2,053
  2,189
  2,332
  2,484
  2,644
  2,813
  2,991
  3,179
  3,376
  3,585
  3,804
  4,035
  4,278
  4,534
  4,803
Total liabilities, $m
  1,804
  1,846
  1,893
  1,947
  2,006
  2,070
  2,141
  2,217
  2,299
  2,388
  2,482
  2,583
  2,690
  2,804
  2,925
  3,053
  3,189
  3,332
  3,484
  3,644
  3,813
  3,991
  4,179
  4,377
  4,585
  4,804
  5,035
  5,278
  5,534
  5,803
Total equity, $m
  811
  829
  851
  875
  901
  930
  962
  996
  1,033
  1,073
  1,115
  1,160
  1,209
  1,260
  1,314
  1,372
  1,433
  1,497
  1,565
  1,637
  1,713
  1,793
  1,877
  1,966
  2,060
  2,159
  2,262
  2,371
  2,486
  2,607
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,615
  2,675
  2,744
  2,822
  2,907
  3,000
  3,103
  3,213
  3,332
  3,461
  3,597
  3,743
  3,899
  4,064
  4,239
  4,425
  4,622
  4,829
  5,049
  5,281
  5,526
  5,784
  6,056
  6,343
  6,645
  6,963
  7,297
  7,649
  8,020
  8,410
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.990
  1.020
  1.050
  1.080
  1.120
  1.150
  1.190
  1.220
  1.260
  1.290
  1.330
  1.360
  1.400
  1.430
  1.460
  1.500
  1.530
  1.560
  1.590
  1.610
  1.640
  1.670
  1.690
  1.720
  1.740
  1.760
  1.780
  1.800
  1.820
  1.840
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -366
  -372
  -380
  -388
  -397
  -406
  -417
  -429
  -442
  -455
  -330
  -346
  -363
  -380
  -399
  -419
  -440
  -462
  -485
  -510
  -536
  -564
  -593
  -624
  -656
  -690
  -726
  -763
  -803
  -845
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  297
  300
  305
  309
  314
  320
  326
  333
  340
  348
  217
  225
  235
  245
  255
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  333
  348
  365
  382
  400
  419
  439
  460
  483
  506
Funds from operations, $m
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -161
  -171
  -181
  -192
  -204
  -216
  -228
  -242
  -256
  -271
  -286
  -303
  -320
  -339
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
Cash from operations, $m
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -136
  -144
  -153
  -162
  -172
  -182
  -193
  -205
  -217
  -229
  -243
  -257
  -272
  -288
  -304
  -322
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -154
  -157
  -161
  -165
  -170
  -175
  -181
  -187
  -193
  -201
  -208
  -217
  -225
  -235
  -245
  -255
  -266
  -278
  -291
  -304
  -318
  -333
  -348
  -365
  -382
  -400
  -419
  -439
  -460
  -483
New CAPEX, $m
  -17
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -191
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -245
  -255
  -267
  -278
  -292
  -305
  -319
  -333
  -349
  -366
  -384
  -402
  -422
  -441
  -463
  -486
  -509
  -534
  -560
  -587
  -617
Free cash flow, $m
  -239
  -247
  -257
  -267
  -278
  -290
  -302
  -316
  -331
  -347
  -363
  -381
  -400
  -420
  -441
  -463
  -487
  -512
  -538
  -566
  -595
  -626
  -658
  -692
  -728
  -766
  -806
  -848
  -892
  -938
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  36
  42
  47
  53
  59
  65
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  107
  114
  121
  128
  136
  143
  152
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
  208
  219
  231
  243
  256
  269
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  382
  391
  401
  412
  423
  436
  449
  463
  479
  495
  373
  391
  411
  431
  453
  476
  501
  526
  553
  582
  612
  644
  677
  713
  750
  789
  830
  873
  918
  966
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  418
  433
  448
  465
  482
  501
  520
  539
  561
  583
  467
  492
  518
  545
  574
  604
  637
  669
  705
  742
  781
  822
  865
  911
  958
  1,008
  1,061
  1,116
  1,174
  1,235
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  179
  185
  192
  198
  204
  211
  217
  223
  230
  237
  104
  111
  118
  126
  133
  141
  150
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  242
  254
  268
  282
  296
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -382
  -391
  -401
  -412
  -423
  -436
  -449
  -463
  -479
  -495
  -373
  -391
  -411
  -431
  -453
  -476
  -501
  -526
  -553
  -582
  -612
  -644
  -677
  -713
  -750
  -789
  -830
  -873
  -918
  -966
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -203
  -206
  -209
  -213
  -219
  -225
  -232
  -240
  -249
  -258
  -269
  -280
  -293
  -306
  -320
  -335
  -351
  -368
  -386
  -406
  -426
  -448
  -470
  -495
  -520
  -547
  -575
  -605
  -636
  -669
Discount rate, %
  6.10
  6.41
  6.73
  7.06
  7.41
  7.79
  8.17
  8.58
  9.01
  9.46
  9.94
  10.43
  10.95
  11.50
  12.08
  12.68
  13.32
  13.98
  14.68
  15.41
  16.19
  16.99
  17.84
  18.74
  19.67
  20.66
  21.69
  22.77
  23.91
  25.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -191
  -182
  -172
  -162
  -153
  -143
  -134
  -124
  -114
  -105
  -95
  -85
  -76
  -67
  -58
  -50
  -42
  -35
  -29
  -23
  -18
  -14
  -11
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  73.7
  54.2
  39.9
  29.3
  21.6
  15.9
  11.7
  8.6
  6.3
  4.7
  3.7
  2.9
  2.3
  1.8
  1.5
  1.1
  0.9
  0.7
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0

Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Company (HMH) is a global learning company, specializing in education solutions across a range of media. The Company operates through two segments: Education and Trade Publishing. As of December 31, 2016, the Company delivered content, services and technology to both educational institutions and consumers, reaching over 50 million students in approximately 150 countries across the world. It sells its products and services across multiple media and distribution channels. Its Education segment provides educational content, services and technology solutions to meet the diverse needs of classrooms. Its Trade Publishing segment develops, markets and sells consumer books in print and digital formats, and licenses book rights to other publishers and electronic businesses in the United States and abroad.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (HMHC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.7
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -12.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 23%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 38
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 86.9%
Total Debt to Equity 87.8%
Interest Coverage -9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.3%
Return On Total Capital -15.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.3%
Return On Equity -27.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.2%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.1%
EBITDA Margin -1.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Operating Margin -22.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -25.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.7%
Net Profit Margin -20.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.8%
Effective Tax Rate 18.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

HMHC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HMHC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1407.511 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HMHC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.1%, whose default value for HMHC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HMHC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 122.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HMHC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HMHC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HMHC are equal to 62.5%.

Life of production assets of 5.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Houghton Mifflin Harcourt operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HMHC is equal to -7.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $795.193 million for Houghton Mifflin Harcourt - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 123.554 million for Houghton Mifflin Harcourt is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Houghton Mifflin Harcourt at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Houghton Mifflin: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:59AM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Alpine Investors Paying $140 Million for Houghton Mifflin Assets   [Sep-12-18 06:44PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Edtech Startup Writable Seeded With $3.2 Million   [Aug-22-18 01:57PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Houghton Mifflin: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [11:24AM  Associated Press]
▶ Houghton Mifflin: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [09:28AM  Associated Press]
▶ Return to Middle-Earth for Houghton Mifflin Harcourt   [Apr-10-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Houghton Mifflin reports 4Q loss   [Feb-22-18 10:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Statement from Houghton Mifflin Harcourt   [07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Houghton Mifflin beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-02-17 07:39AM  Associated Press]
▶ Houghton Mifflin reports 2Q loss   [Aug-03-17 10:33PM  Associated Press]

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