Intrinsic value of Huami ADR - HMI

Previous Close

$10.59

  Intrinsic Value

$3,432

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$10.59

 
Intrinsic value

$3,432

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of HMI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  31.60
  28.94
  26.55
  24.39
  22.45
  20.71
  19.14
  17.72
  16.45
  15.31
  14.27
  13.35
  12.51
  11.76
  11.09
  10.48
  9.93
  9.44
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.39
  6.25
Revenue, $m
  2,696
  3,477
  4,400
  5,473
  6,701
  8,089
  9,637
  11,345
  13,211
  15,233
  17,408
  19,731
  22,200
  24,811
  27,562
  30,449
  33,473
  36,631
  39,925
  43,356
  46,926
  50,638
  54,497
  58,506
  62,673
  67,003
  71,505
  76,186
  81,056
  86,125
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,771
  2,283
  2,889
  3,594
  4,400
  5,311
  6,327
  7,449
  8,674
  10,001
  11,427
  12,953
  14,573
  16,287
  18,093
  19,989
  21,973
  24,047
  26,209
  28,461
  30,805
  33,241
  35,774
  38,406
  41,142
  43,984
  46,940
  50,013
  53,209
  56,537
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  543
  555
  567
  579
  592
  605
  618
  632
  646
  660
  675
  689
  705
  720
  736
  752
  769
  786
  803
  821
  839
  857
  876
  895
  915
  935
  956
  977
  998
  1,020
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,314
  2,838
  3,456
  4,173
  4,992
  5,916
  6,945
  8,081
  9,320
  10,661
  12,102
  13,642
  15,278
  17,007
  18,829
  20,741
  22,742
  24,833
  27,012
  29,282
  31,644
  34,098
  36,650
  39,301
  42,057
  44,919
  47,896
  50,990
  54,207
  57,557
Operating income, $m
  383
  639
  944
  1,300
  1,709
  2,173
  2,691
  3,264
  3,892
  4,572
  5,306
  6,089
  6,922
  7,804
  8,733
  9,709
  10,731
  11,799
  12,913
  14,074
  15,283
  16,540
  17,846
  19,205
  20,616
  22,084
  23,610
  25,197
  26,849
  28,568
EBITDA, $m
  388
  645
  952
  1,309
  1,721
  2,187
  2,708
  3,283
  3,914
  4,597
  5,333
  6,120
  6,957
  7,843
  8,776
  9,757
  10,783
  11,857
  12,976
  14,143
  15,357
  16,619
  17,932
  19,297
  20,715
  22,189
  23,722
  25,317
  26,976
  28,703
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  2
  23
  49
  79
  114
  154
  199
  250
  306
  367
  433
  504
  580
  660
  746
  836
  930
  1,029
  1,132
  1,240
  1,352
  1,468
  1,590
  1,716
  1,847
  1,983
  2,125
  2,272
  2,425
  2,584
Earnings before tax, $m
  381
  616
  895
  1,221
  1,595
  2,019
  2,492
  3,015
  3,586
  4,206
  4,873
  5,585
  6,343
  7,143
  7,987
  8,873
  9,801
  10,770
  11,781
  12,835
  13,931
  15,071
  16,257
  17,489
  18,770
  20,101
  21,486
  22,926
  24,424
  25,984
Tax expense, $m
  103
  166
  242
  330
  431
  545
  673
  814
  968
  1,135
  1,316
  1,508
  1,712
  1,929
  2,157
  2,396
  2,646
  2,908
  3,181
  3,465
  3,761
  4,069
  4,389
  4,722
  5,068
  5,427
  5,801
  6,190
  6,595
  7,016
Net income, $m
  278
  449
  653
  891
  1,165
  1,474
  1,819
  2,201
  2,618
  3,070
  3,557
  4,077
  4,630
  5,215
  5,831
  6,477
  7,155
  7,862
  8,600
  9,369
  10,170
  11,002
  11,867
  12,767
  13,702
  14,674
  15,684
  16,736
  17,830
  18,969

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,929
  2,487
  3,147
  3,915
  4,794
  5,786
  6,893
  8,115
  9,450
  10,897
  12,452
  14,114
  15,880
  17,748
  19,715
  21,781
  23,943
  26,203
  28,559
  31,013
  33,567
  36,222
  38,982
  41,850
  44,830
  47,928
  51,148
  54,497
  57,980
  61,606
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,929
  2,487
  3,147
  3,915
  4,794
  5,786
  6,893
  8,115
  9,450
  10,897
  12,452
  14,114
  15,880
  17,748
  19,715
  21,781
  23,943
  26,203
  28,559
  31,013
  33,567
  36,222
  38,982
  41,850
  44,830
  47,928
  51,148
  54,497
  57,980
  61,606
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
  1.398
Average production assets, $m
  30
  38
  48
  60
  74
  89
  106
  125
  145
  168
  191
  217
  244
  273
  303
  335
  368
  403
  439
  477
  516
  557
  599
  644
  689
  737
  787
  838
  892
  947
Working capital, $m
  92
  118
  150
  186
  228
  275
  328
  386
  449
  518
  592
  671
  755
  844
  937
  1,035
  1,138
  1,245
  1,357
  1,474
  1,595
  1,722
  1,853
  1,989
  2,131
  2,278
  2,431
  2,590
  2,756
  2,928
Total debt, $m
  427
  899
  1,458
  2,107
  2,851
  3,691
  4,627
  5,661
  6,790
  8,014
  9,330
  10,736
  12,230
  13,810
  15,475
  17,222
  19,052
  20,963
  22,956
  25,033
  27,193
  29,439
  31,774
  34,201
  36,722
  39,343
  42,067
  44,900
  47,847
  50,914
Total liabilities, $m
  1,632
  2,104
  2,662
  3,312
  4,055
  4,895
  5,832
  6,865
  7,995
  9,218
  10,534
  11,940
  13,435
  15,015
  16,679
  18,426
  20,256
  22,167
  24,161
  26,237
  28,397
  30,644
  32,979
  35,405
  37,927
  40,547
  43,271
  46,104
  49,051
  52,118
Total equity, $m
  297
  383
  485
  603
  738
  891
  1,062
  1,250
  1,455
  1,678
  1,918
  2,174
  2,446
  2,733
  3,036
  3,354
  3,687
  4,035
  4,398
  4,776
  5,169
  5,578
  6,003
  6,445
  6,904
  7,381
  7,877
  8,392
  8,929
  9,487
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,929
  2,487
  3,147
  3,915
  4,793
  5,786
  6,894
  8,115
  9,450
  10,896
  12,452
  14,114
  15,881
  17,748
  19,715
  21,780
  23,943
  26,202
  28,559
  31,013
  33,566
  36,222
  38,982
  41,850
  44,831
  47,928
  51,148
  54,496
  57,980
  61,605
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.440
  2.350
  3.010
  3.500
  3.860
  4.140
  4.360
  4.530
  4.670
  4.780
  4.870
  4.940
  5.000
  5.050
  5.100
  5.130
  5.170
  5.200
  5.220
  5.240
  5.260
  5.280
  5.290
  5.310
  5.320
  5.330
  5.340
  5.350
  5.360
  5.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  278
  449
  653
  891
  1,165
  1,474
  1,819
  2,201
  2,618
  3,070
  3,557
  4,077
  4,630
  5,215
  5,831
  6,477
  7,155
  7,862
  8,600
  9,369
  10,170
  11,002
  11,867
  12,767
  13,702
  14,674
  15,684
  16,736
  17,830
  18,969
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  27
  31
  35
  39
  43
  48
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  98
  105
  112
  120
  127
  135
Funds from operations, $m
  283
  456
  661
  901
  1,176
  1,488
  1,835
  2,220
  2,640
  3,095
  3,585
  4,108
  4,665
  5,254
  5,874
  6,525
  7,207
  7,920
  8,663
  9,438
  10,243
  11,082
  11,953
  12,859
  13,800
  14,779
  15,797
  16,855
  17,957
  19,104
Change in working capital, $m
  22
  27
  31
  36
  42
  47
  53
  58
  63
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  147
  153
  159
  166
  172
Cash from operations, $m
  261
  429
  630
  865
  1,134
  1,440
  1,783
  2,162
  2,576
  3,026
  3,511
  4,029
  4,581
  5,165
  5,780
  6,427
  7,104
  7,812
  8,551
  9,321
  10,122
  10,955
  11,822
  12,722
  13,659
  14,632
  15,644
  16,696
  17,791
  18,932
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -105
  -112
  -120
  -127
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -51
  -54
  -56
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -10
  -13
  -15
  -19
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -64
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -88
  -94
  -101
  -107
  -115
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -155
  -163
  -174
  -183
Free cash flow, $m
  251
  417
  614
  846
  1,112
  1,415
  1,753
  2,128
  2,538
  2,983
  3,463
  3,976
  4,523
  5,101
  5,711
  6,352
  7,023
  7,725
  8,457
  9,220
  10,015
  10,841
  11,700
  12,593
  13,521
  14,486
  15,489
  16,532
  17,618
  18,748
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  392
  472
  559
  649
  744
  840
  937
  1,034
  1,129
  1,224
  1,316
  1,406
  1,494
  1,580
  1,664
  1,747
  1,830
  1,911
  1,993
  2,076
  2,160
  2,246
  2,335
  2,426
  2,521
  2,621
  2,724
  2,833
  2,947
  3,067
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  392
  472
  559
  649
  744
  840
  937
  1,034
  1,129
  1,224
  1,316
  1,406
  1,494
  1,580
  1,664
  1,747
  1,830
  1,911
  1,993
  2,076
  2,160
  2,246
  2,335
  2,426
  2,521
  2,621
  2,724
  2,833
  2,947
  3,067
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  643
  889
  1,173
  1,495
  1,856
  2,254
  2,690
  3,161
  3,667
  4,207
  4,779
  5,383
  6,017
  6,681
  7,376
  8,099
  8,853
  9,637
  10,451
  11,297
  12,175
  13,087
  14,035
  15,019
  16,042
  17,106
  18,213
  19,365
  20,565
  21,816
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -71
  -86
  -102
  -118
  -135
  -153
  -171
  -188
  -206
  -223
  -240
  -256
  -272
  -288
  -303
  -318
  -333
  -348
  -363
  -378
  -393
  -409
  -425
  -442
  -459
  -477
  -496
  -516
  -536
  -558
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  572
  803
  1,071
  1,377
  1,721
  2,102
  2,519
  2,973
  3,462
  3,984
  4,539
  5,127
  5,745
  6,394
  7,073
  7,781
  8,520
  9,289
  10,088
  10,919
  11,782
  12,678
  13,610
  14,577
  15,583
  16,629
  17,717
  18,850
  20,029
  21,257
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  548
  735
  932
  1,134
  1,334
  1,525
  1,702
  1,858
  1,989
  2,089
  2,156
  2,188
  2,184
  2,146
  2,076
  1,977
  1,854
  1,711
  1,553
  1,387
  1,219
  1,052
  892
  742
  606
  485
  380
  292
  219
  160
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Huami ADR (HMI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

HMI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HMI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2048.896 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Huami ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Huami ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HMI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 31.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HMI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Huami ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Huami ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HMI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 65.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $531 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HMI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Huami ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Huami ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HMI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HMI are equal to 1.1%.

Life of production assets of 7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Huami ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HMI is equal to 3.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $225.775 million for Huami ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11.5 million for Huami ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Huami ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Huami and Timex Group Announce Collaboration Agreement   [Nov-29-18 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Huami Announces the Launch of NFC Version Mi Band 3   [Sep-19-18 06:52AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Huami Announces Launch of New Amazfit Verge Smart Watch   [Sep-17-18 04:01PM  PR Newswire]
▶ The current tech bubble is a Chinese import   [Sep-10-18 06:54AM  MarketWatch]
▶ 3 Stocks Advance on Monday   [Aug-20-18 05:49PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Does Huami Corporations (NYSE:HMI) PE Ratio Warrant A Buy?   [Jun-27-18 10:56AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Huami Corporation Announces Official Launch of Mi Band 3   [May-31-18 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Why Do Investors Hate These 3 Asian IPOs?   [May-28-18 11:08AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Is Huami Doomed to Become the Next Fitbit?   [May-23-18 11:31AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Huami Corporation Files 2017 Annual Report on Form 20-F   [Apr-27-18 04:10PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 3 Stocks Wall Street Hasn't Heard of Yet   [Mar-30-18 11:05AM  Motley Fool]

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