Intrinsic value of HMS Holdings - HMSY

Previous Close

$33.86

  Intrinsic Value

$9.87

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-71%

Previous close

$33.86

 
Intrinsic value

$9.87

 
Up/down potential

-71%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HMSY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.10
  9.59
  9.13
  8.72
  8.35
  8.01
  7.71
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  574
  629
  686
  746
  808
  873
  941
  1,010
  1,083
  1,159
  1,237
  1,319
  1,404
  1,492
  1,584
  1,680
  1,780
  1,884
  1,993
  2,106
  2,225
  2,348
  2,477
  2,612
  2,754
  2,902
  3,056
  3,218
  3,388
  3,565
Variable operating expenses, $m
  501
  543
  588
  634
  682
  732
  784
  838
  894
  952
  955
  1,018
  1,084
  1,152
  1,223
  1,297
  1,374
  1,454
  1,538
  1,626
  1,717
  1,813
  1,912
  2,017
  2,126
  2,240
  2,359
  2,484
  2,615
  2,752
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  501
  543
  588
  634
  682
  732
  784
  838
  894
  952
  955
  1,018
  1,084
  1,152
  1,223
  1,297
  1,374
  1,454
  1,538
  1,626
  1,717
  1,813
  1,912
  2,017
  2,126
  2,240
  2,359
  2,484
  2,615
  2,752
Operating income, $m
  73
  86
  99
  112
  126
  141
  157
  173
  189
  206
  282
  301
  320
  340
  361
  383
  406
  430
  455
  480
  507
  536
  565
  596
  628
  662
  697
  734
  773
  813
EBITDA, $m
  163
  178
  195
  212
  229
  248
  267
  287
  307
  329
  351
  374
  398
  423
  449
  477
  505
  534
  565
  597
  631
  666
  703
  741
  781
  823
  867
  913
  961
  1,011
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  26
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  123
Earnings before tax, $m
  60
  71
  82
  93
  105
  117
  130
  144
  158
  172
  245
  261
  277
  294
  311
  330
  349
  369
  390
  411
  434
  458
  482
  508
  535
  564
  593
  624
  657
  691
Tax expense, $m
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  43
  46
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  145
  152
  160
  169
  177
  186
Net income, $m
  44
  52
  60
  68
  77
  86
  95
  105
  115
  126
  179
  190
  202
  214
  227
  241
  255
  269
  284
  300
  317
  334
  352
  371
  391
  411
  433
  456
  479
  504

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,075
  1,178
  1,285
  1,397
  1,514
  1,635
  1,761
  1,892
  2,028
  2,170
  2,317
  2,470
  2,629
  2,795
  2,967
  3,146
  3,333
  3,528
  3,732
  3,944
  4,166
  4,397
  4,639
  4,892
  5,157
  5,434
  5,723
  6,026
  6,344
  6,676
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,075
  1,178
  1,285
  1,397
  1,514
  1,635
  1,761
  1,892
  2,028
  2,170
  2,317
  2,470
  2,629
  2,795
  2,967
  3,146
  3,333
  3,528
  3,732
  3,944
  4,166
  4,397
  4,639
  4,892
  5,157
  5,434
  5,723
  6,026
  6,344
  6,676
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
Average production assets, $m
  379
  416
  454
  493
  534
  577
  622
  668
  716
  766
  818
  872
  928
  986
  1,047
  1,111
  1,177
  1,245
  1,317
  1,392
  1,470
  1,552
  1,638
  1,727
  1,820
  1,918
  2,020
  2,127
  2,239
  2,356
Working capital, $m
  129
  141
  154
  167
  181
  196
  211
  226
  243
  260
  277
  295
  314
  334
  355
  376
  399
  422
  446
  472
  498
  526
  555
  585
  617
  650
  685
  721
  759
  799
Total debt, $m
  277
  316
  357
  399
  443
  489
  537
  586
  638
  691
  747
  805
  865
  927
  993
  1,060
  1,131
  1,205
  1,282
  1,362
  1,446
  1,533
  1,625
  1,720
  1,820
  1,925
  2,034
  2,149
  2,269
  2,395
Total liabilities, $m
  406
  445
  486
  528
  572
  618
  666
  715
  767
  820
  876
  934
  994
  1,056
  1,121
  1,189
  1,260
  1,334
  1,411
  1,491
  1,575
  1,662
  1,754
  1,849
  1,949
  2,054
  2,163
  2,278
  2,398
  2,524
Total equity, $m
  668
  733
  799
  869
  942
  1,017
  1,095
  1,177
  1,262
  1,350
  1,441
  1,536
  1,635
  1,738
  1,845
  1,957
  2,073
  2,195
  2,321
  2,453
  2,591
  2,735
  2,886
  3,043
  3,208
  3,380
  3,560
  3,748
  3,946
  4,153
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,074
  1,178
  1,285
  1,397
  1,514
  1,635
  1,761
  1,892
  2,029
  2,170
  2,317
  2,470
  2,629
  2,794
  2,966
  3,146
  3,333
  3,529
  3,732
  3,944
  4,166
  4,397
  4,640
  4,892
  5,157
  5,434
  5,723
  6,026
  6,344
  6,677
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.410
  0.430
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622
  0.622

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  44
  52
  60
  68
  77
  86
  95
  105
  115
  126
  179
  190
  202
  214
  227
  241
  255
  269
  284
  300
  317
  334
  352
  371
  391
  411
  433
  456
  479
  504
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  90
  93
  96
  99
  103
  106
  110
  114
  118
  122
  69
  73
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  188
  198
Funds from operations, $m
  134
  144
  156
  167
  179
  192
  205
  219
  233
  248
  248
  263
  280
  297
  315
  334
  353
  374
  395
  417
  440
  464
  490
  516
  544
  573
  603
  634
  668
  702
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
Cash from operations, $m
  122
  132
  143
  154
  165
  178
  190
  203
  217
  231
  230
  245
  261
  277
  295
  313
  331
  350
  371
  392
  414
  437
  461
  486
  512
  539
  568
  598
  630
  662
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -188
New CAPEX, $m
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -206
  -215
  -227
  -238
  -251
  -263
  -277
  -291
  -305
Free cash flow, $m
  58
  64
  70
  76
  83
  90
  97
  105
  113
  121
  114
  122
  132
  141
  151
  161
  172
  183
  194
  206
  219
  231
  245
  259
  274
  289
  305
  321
  339
  357
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  91
  96
  100
  105
  109
  115
  120
  126
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  18
  13
  7
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  55
  52
  48
  44
  44
  46
  48
  50
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  91
  96
  100
  105
  109
  115
  120
  126
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  114
  115
  118
  120
  127
  136
  145
  154
  164
  174
  169
  180
  192
  204
  216
  229
  242
  257
  271
  286
  302
  319
  336
  355
  374
  393
  414
  436
  459
  483
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -197
  -207
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  52
  51
  51
  51
  54
  60
  66
  73
  79
  86
  78
  85
  93
  101
  109
  117
  126
  135
  145
  154
  164
  175
  186
  197
  209
  221
  234
  247
  261
  276
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  49
  47
  44
  42
  42
  44
  45
  45
  46
  45
  37
  36
  35
  34
  32
  30
  27
  25
  22
  20
  17
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.4
  99.0
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7

HMS Holdings Corp. is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in the United States healthcare insurance benefit cost containment marketplace. It provides coordination of benefits services to government, and private healthcare payers and sponsors. Its payment integrity services ensure that healthcare claims billed are accurate and appropriate. It offers services to state Medicaid agencies, government health agencies and health plans, including Medicaid managed care, Medicare Advantage and group and individual health lines of business; government and private employers; and other healthcare payers and sponsors, including child support agencies. It serves approximately 45 state Medicaid programs and the District of Columbia, and government health agencies, including Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) and the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). It also provides services to approximately 250 health plans and supports their multiple lines of business.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  HMS Holdings (HMSY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 74.4
Price to Sales 5.8
Price to Book 5.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 31.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 41.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 75%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 35.5%
Total Debt to Equity 35.5%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Return On Total Capital 5.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Equity 7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.7%
EBITDA Margin 20.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Operating Margin 11.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 10%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Net Profit Margin 7.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Effective Tax Rate 22.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

HMSY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HMSY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $521.212 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by HMS Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of HMS Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HMSY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HMSY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of HMS Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of HMS Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HMSY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HMSY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for HMS Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for HMS Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HMSY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HMSY are equal to 66.1%.

Life of production assets of 11.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in HMS Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HMSY is equal to 22.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $606.229 million for HMS Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 83.463 million for HMS Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of HMS Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.8 billion.

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▶ HMS Holdings: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:19AM  Associated Press]
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▶ How Financially Strong Is HMS Holdings Corp (NASDAQ:HMSY)?   [Jun-22-18 11:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ HMS Holdings Corp. to Host Earnings Call   [May-04-18 06:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ HMS Holdings: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ HMS Holdings Corp. to Host Earnings Call   [Feb-23-18 06:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ HMS Holdings tops Street 4Q forecasts   [06:27AM  Associated Press]
▶ How Financially Strong Is HMS Holdings Corp (NASDAQ:HMSY)?   [Feb-20-18 02:15PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ HMS Shares Downgraded Following Q3 Report   [Nov-20-17 04:27PM  Benzinga]
▶ HMS Holdings misses Street 3Q forecasts   [Nov-06-17 05:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is It Too Late To Buy HMS Holdings Corp (HMSY)?   [Sep-20-17 09:21PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ HMS Holdings misses Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-04-17 09:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to HMS Holdings Corp. : July 24, 2017   [Jul-24-17 04:28PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to HMS Holdings Corp. : July 14, 2017   [Jul-14-17 02:52PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to HMS Holdings Corp. : June 28, 2017   [Jun-28-17 02:52PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to HMS Holdings Corp. : June 13, 2017   [Jun-13-17 12:36PM  Capital Cube]

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