Intrinsic value of Hemisphere Media Group, Inc. - HMTV

Previous Close

$12.81

  Intrinsic Value

$448.03

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$12.81

 
Intrinsic value

$448.03

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of HMTV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  235
  363
  543
  789
  1,112
  1,529
  2,053
  2,696
  3,469
  4,381
  5,440
  6,651
  8,017
  9,539
  11,216
  13,047
  15,029
  17,158
  19,433
  21,848
  24,402
  27,090
  29,912
  32,866
  35,951
  39,168
  42,518
  46,004
  49,628
  53,395
Variable operating expenses, $m
  35
  52
  76
  109
  153
  208
  279
  365
  469
  591
  730
  893
  1,076
  1,280
  1,506
  1,751
  2,017
  2,303
  2,609
  2,933
  3,275
  3,636
  4,015
  4,412
  4,826
  5,258
  5,707
  6,175
  6,662
  7,167
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  83
  85
  86
  88
  90
  92
  94
  96
  99
  101
  103
  105
  107
  110
  112
  115
  117
  120
  122
  125
  128
  131
  134
  137
  140
  143
  146
  149
  152
  156
Total operating expenses, $m
  118
  137
  162
  197
  243
  300
  373
  461
  568
  692
  833
  998
  1,183
  1,390
  1,618
  1,866
  2,134
  2,423
  2,731
  3,058
  3,403
  3,767
  4,149
  4,549
  4,966
  5,401
  5,853
  6,324
  6,814
  7,323
Operating income, $m
  118
  227
  381
  591
  870
  1,229
  1,680
  2,234
  2,901
  3,689
  4,607
  5,653
  6,833
  8,148
  9,598
  11,181
  12,894
  14,735
  16,702
  18,790
  20,998
  23,323
  25,763
  28,318
  30,986
  33,768
  36,665
  39,680
  42,814
  46,073
EBITDA, $m
  135
  252
  416
  641
  939
  1,323
  1,806
  2,398
  3,111
  3,954
  4,932
  6,050
  7,312
  8,718
  10,267
  11,959
  13,791
  15,760
  17,862
  20,094
  22,455
  24,940
  27,549
  30,279
  33,131
  36,105
  39,203
  42,426
  45,776
  49,259
Interest expense (income), $m
  11
  12
  22
  35
  55
  81
  116
  160
  216
  285
  368
  466
  579
  709
  855
  1,018
  1,198
  1,394
  1,606
  1,835
  2,078
  2,337
  2,610
  2,898
  3,201
  3,517
  3,848
  4,192
  4,551
  4,925
  5,313
Earnings before tax, $m
  105
  205
  346
  536
  789
  1,113
  1,520
  2,018
  2,616
  3,321
  4,141
  5,074
  6,124
  7,293
  8,580
  9,983
  11,500
  13,129
  14,867
  16,712
  18,661
  20,713
  22,865
  25,117
  27,468
  29,920
  32,473
  35,129
  37,890
  40,760
Tax expense, $m
  28
  55
  93
  145
  213
  301
  410
  545
  706
  897
  1,118
  1,370
  1,654
  1,969
  2,317
  2,695
  3,105
  3,545
  4,014
  4,512
  5,039
  5,592
  6,174
  6,782
  7,416
  8,078
  8,768
  9,485
  10,230
  11,005
Net income, $m
  77
  150
  252
  392
  576
  813
  1,109
  1,473
  1,910
  2,424
  3,023
  3,704
  4,471
  5,324
  6,263
  7,287
  8,395
  9,584
  10,853
  12,200
  13,623
  15,120
  16,691
  18,335
  20,052
  21,842
  23,705
  25,644
  27,660
  29,754

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  711
  1,098
  1,642
  2,382
  3,361
  4,620
  6,202
  8,144
  10,479
  13,236
  16,436
  20,094
  24,220
  28,818
  33,884
  39,416
  45,404
  51,838
  58,710
  66,007
  73,721
  81,844
  90,369
  99,292
  108,613
  118,332
  128,454
  138,985
  149,935
  161,316
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  711
  1,098
  1,642
  2,382
  3,361
  4,620
  6,202
  8,144
  10,479
  13,236
  16,436
  20,094
  24,220
  28,818
  33,884
  39,416
  45,404
  51,838
  58,710
  66,007
  73,721
  81,844
  90,369
  99,292
  108,613
  118,332
  128,454
  138,985
  149,935
  161,316
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
Average production assets, $m
  267
  412
  616
  894
  1,262
  1,734
  2,328
  3,057
  3,933
  4,968
  6,169
  7,543
  9,091
  10,817
  12,719
  14,795
  17,042
  19,458
  22,037
  24,776
  27,672
  30,720
  33,920
  37,270
  40,768
  44,416
  48,216
  52,169
  56,279
  60,550
Working capital, $m
  20
  31
  46
  67
  95
  130
  174
  229
  295
  372
  462
  565
  681
  811
  953
  1,109
  1,277
  1,458
  1,652
  1,857
  2,074
  2,303
  2,543
  2,794
  3,056
  3,329
  3,614
  3,910
  4,218
  4,539
Total debt, $m
  366
  599
  926
  1,371
  1,959
  2,716
  3,666
  4,833
  6,237
  7,894
  9,817
  12,016
  14,495
  17,258
  20,303
  23,628
  27,226
  31,094
  35,223
  39,609
  44,245
  49,127
  54,251
  59,614
  65,215
  71,057
  77,140
  83,469
  90,050
  96,890
Total liabilities, $m
  427
  660
  987
  1,432
  2,020
  2,777
  3,727
  4,894
  6,298
  7,955
  9,878
  12,077
  14,557
  17,319
  20,365
  23,689
  27,288
  31,155
  35,284
  39,670
  44,306
  49,188
  54,312
  59,675
  65,276
  71,118
  77,201
  83,530
  90,111
  96,951
Total equity, $m
  284
  438
  655
  950
  1,341
  1,844
  2,475
  3,249
  4,181
  5,281
  6,558
  8,018
  9,664
  11,498
  13,520
  15,727
  18,116
  20,684
  23,425
  26,337
  29,415
  32,656
  36,057
  39,618
  43,337
  47,215
  51,253
  55,455
  59,824
  64,365
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  711
  1,098
  1,642
  2,382
  3,361
  4,621
  6,202
  8,143
  10,479
  13,236
  16,436
  20,095
  24,221
  28,817
  33,885
  39,416
  45,404
  51,839
  58,709
  66,007
  73,721
  81,844
  90,369
  99,293
  108,613
  118,333
  128,454
  138,985
  149,935
  161,316
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.290
  1.370
  1.410
  1.440
  1.460
  1.470
  1.480
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  77
  150
  252
  392
  576
  813
  1,109
  1,473
  1,910
  2,424
  3,023
  3,704
  4,471
  5,324
  6,263
  7,287
  8,395
  9,584
  10,853
  12,200
  13,623
  15,120
  16,691
  18,335
  20,052
  21,842
  23,705
  25,644
  27,660
  29,754
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  25
  36
  50
  70
  94
  126
  164
  210
  265
  325
  397
  478
  569
  669
  779
  897
  1,024
  1,160
  1,304
  1,456
  1,617
  1,785
  1,962
  2,146
  2,338
  2,538
  2,746
  2,962
  3,187
Funds from operations, $m
  94
  175
  288
  442
  645
  907
  1,235
  1,637
  2,120
  2,689
  3,348
  4,101
  4,949
  5,893
  6,933
  8,066
  9,292
  10,608
  12,013
  13,504
  15,079
  16,737
  18,477
  20,297
  22,198
  24,179
  26,243
  28,390
  30,622
  32,941
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  11
  15
  21
  28
  35
  44
  55
  66
  78
  90
  103
  116
  129
  143
  156
  168
  181
  193
  205
  217
  229
  240
  251
  262
  273
  285
  296
  308
  320
Cash from operations, $m
  87
  164
  273
  421
  618
  872
  1,191
  1,582
  2,054
  2,612
  3,258
  3,998
  4,833
  5,764
  6,790
  7,910
  9,123
  10,427
  11,820
  13,299
  14,862
  16,509
  18,237
  20,046
  21,935
  23,906
  25,958
  28,093
  30,313
  32,621
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -14
  -22
  -32
  -47
  -66
  -91
  -123
  -161
  -207
  -261
  -325
  -397
  -478
  -569
  -669
  -779
  -897
  -1,024
  -1,160
  -1,304
  -1,456
  -1,617
  -1,785
  -1,962
  -2,146
  -2,338
  -2,538
  -2,746
  -2,962
New CAPEX, $m
  -100
  -145
  -204
  -278
  -367
  -473
  -594
  -729
  -877
  -1,035
  -1,201
  -1,373
  -1,549
  -1,726
  -1,902
  -2,076
  -2,248
  -2,415
  -2,579
  -2,739
  -2,896
  -3,049
  -3,200
  -3,349
  -3,499
  -3,648
  -3,799
  -3,953
  -4,110
  -4,272
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -109
  -159
  -226
  -310
  -414
  -539
  -685
  -852
  -1,038
  -1,242
  -1,462
  -1,698
  -1,946
  -2,204
  -2,471
  -2,745
  -3,027
  -3,312
  -3,603
  -3,899
  -4,200
  -4,505
  -4,817
  -5,134
  -5,461
  -5,794
  -6,137
  -6,491
  -6,856
  -7,234
Free cash flow, $m
  -22
  4
  47
  111
  203
  332
  506
  731
  1,017
  1,370
  1,795
  2,300
  2,888
  3,560
  4,319
  5,165
  6,097
  7,115
  8,216
  9,400
  10,663
  12,003
  13,420
  14,911
  16,475
  18,112
  19,821
  21,603
  23,458
  25,387
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  160
  233
  327
  445
  588
  757
  951
  1,167
  1,403
  1,657
  1,923
  2,199
  2,480
  2,763
  3,045
  3,324
  3,599
  3,867
  4,130
  4,386
  4,636
  4,882
  5,124
  5,363
  5,602
  5,841
  6,083
  6,329
  6,581
  6,840
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  29
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  189
  238
  327
  445
  588
  757
  951
  1,167
  1,403
  1,657
  1,923
  2,199
  2,480
  2,763
  3,045
  3,324
  3,599
  3,867
  4,130
  4,386
  4,636
  4,882
  5,124
  5,363
  5,602
  5,841
  6,083
  6,329
  6,581
  6,840
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  167
  242
  374
  556
  792
  1,089
  1,456
  1,898
  2,420
  3,027
  3,718
  4,499
  5,367
  6,323
  7,364
  8,489
  9,696
  10,982
  12,346
  13,785
  15,299
  16,885
  18,544
  20,274
  22,077
  23,953
  25,904
  27,932
  30,039
  32,227
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -106
  -155
  -217
  -295
  -391
  -503
  -631
  -775
  -932
  -1,100
  -1,277
  -1,460
  -1,646
  -1,834
  -2,022
  -2,207
  -2,389
  -2,567
  -2,742
  -2,912
  -3,078
  -3,241
  -3,401
  -3,561
  -3,719
  -3,878
  -4,039
  -4,202
  -4,369
  -4,541
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  55
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  115
  87
  157
  260
  401
  587
  825
  1,123
  1,489
  1,927
  2,442
  3,039
  3,721
  4,489
  5,342
  6,282
  7,307
  8,415
  9,604
  10,874
  12,221
  13,644
  15,142
  16,714
  18,358
  20,075
  21,866
  23,730
  25,670
  27,686
Discount rate, %
  5.20
  5.46
  5.73
  6.02
  6.32
  6.64
  6.97
  7.32
  7.68
  8.07
  8.47
  8.89
  9.34
  9.81
  10.30
  10.81
  11.35
  11.92
  12.51
  13.14
  13.80
  14.49
  15.21
  15.97
  16.77
  17.61
  18.49
  19.41
  20.38
  21.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  110
  79
  132
  206
  295
  399
  515
  639
  765
  887
  998
  1,093
  1,166
  1,212
  1,228
  1,216
  1,175
  1,109
  1,022
  921
  810
  696
  583
  477
  381
  296
  224
  165
  118
  82
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  93.0
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3
  92.3

Hemisphere Media Group, Inc. is a Spanish-language media company. As of December 31, 2016, the Company served the United States Hispanic and Latin American markets with five Spanish-language cable television networks distributed in the United States, two Spanish-language cable television networks distributed in Latin America, and a broadcast television network in Puerto Rico. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned and operated the Spanish language networks and content production platform, including movie and telenovela channels, two Hispanic entertainment genres, and the cable television networks. The Company's United States Hispanic groups include Cinelatino, WAPA, WAPA America, Pasiones, Centroamerica TV and Television Dominicana. WAPA is an independent broadcast television network. WAPA is distributed by various cable, satellite and telecommunication service providers in Puerto Rico.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hemisphere Media Group, Inc. (HMTV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 30
Price to Sales 3.9
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -40%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 78.1%
Total Debt to Equity 78.1%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Total Capital 3.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Equity 6.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.7%
EBITDA Margin 40.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.7%
Operating Margin 28.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Net Profit Margin 12.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Effective Tax Rate 35.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

HMTV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HMTV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $147 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hemisphere Media Group, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Hemisphere Media Group, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HMTV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.2%, whose default value for HMTV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hemisphere Media Group, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hemisphere Media Group, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HMTV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 15.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $81 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HMTV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.9% for Hemisphere Media Group, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hemisphere Media Group, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HMTV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HMTV are equal to 113.4%.

Life of production assets of 19 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hemisphere Media Group, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HMTV is equal to 8.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $231.911 million for Hemisphere Media Group, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 39.431 million for Hemisphere Media Group, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hemisphere Media Group, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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