Intrinsic value of Hooker Furniture - HOFT

Previous Close

$30.38

  Intrinsic Value

$55.92

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+84%

Previous close

$30.38

 
Intrinsic value

$55.92

 
Up/down potential

+84%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of HOFT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.76
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
Revenue, $m
  678
  737
  799
  864
  931
  1,000
  1,073
  1,148
  1,226
  1,307
  1,392
  1,479
  1,571
  1,666
  1,766
  1,869
  1,977
  2,090
  2,208
  2,331
  2,459
  2,593
  2,734
  2,880
  3,034
  3,195
  3,363
  3,540
  3,725
  3,918
Variable operating expenses, $m
  575
  624
  676
  730
  786
  844
  905
  968
  1,033
  1,101
  1,164
  1,237
  1,314
  1,394
  1,477
  1,563
  1,654
  1,748
  1,846
  1,949
  2,057
  2,169
  2,286
  2,409
  2,538
  2,672
  2,813
  2,961
  3,115
  3,277
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  62
  64
  65
  66
  68
  69
  71
  72
  74
  76
  77
  79
  81
  83
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  94
Total operating expenses, $m
  625
  675
  728
  783
  841
  900
  962
  1,026
  1,093
  1,162
  1,226
  1,301
  1,379
  1,460
  1,545
  1,632
  1,725
  1,820
  1,920
  2,025
  2,134
  2,248
  2,367
  2,492
  2,622
  2,758
  2,901
  3,051
  3,207
  3,371
Operating income, $m
  53
  62
  71
  80
  90
  100
  111
  122
  133
  145
  165
  178
  192
  206
  221
  236
  253
  269
  287
  306
  325
  345
  366
  389
  412
  436
  462
  489
  517
  547
EBITDA, $m
  66
  75
  84
  94
  104
  115
  126
  137
  150
  162
  175
  189
  203
  218
  233
  249
  266
  284
  303
  322
  342
  363
  386
  409
  433
  459
  486
  514
  543
  574
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
Earnings before tax, $m
  50
  58
  67
  75
  84
  94
  104
  114
  125
  136
  155
  167
  180
  193
  207
  222
  237
  252
  269
  286
  304
  323
  343
  364
  385
  408
  432
  457
  484
  512
Tax expense, $m
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  138
Net income, $m
  37
  42
  49
  55
  62
  69
  76
  83
  91
  99
  113
  122
  131
  141
  151
  162
  173
  184
  196
  209
  222
  236
  250
  265
  281
  298
  316
  334
  353
  373

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  382
  415
  450
  486
  524
  563
  604
  646
  690
  736
  784
  833
  885
  938
  994
  1,052
  1,113
  1,177
  1,243
  1,312
  1,385
  1,460
  1,539
  1,622
  1,708
  1,799
  1,894
  1,993
  2,097
  2,206
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  382
  415
  450
  486
  524
  563
  604
  646
  690
  736
  784
  833
  885
  938
  994
  1,052
  1,113
  1,177
  1,243
  1,312
  1,385
  1,460
  1,539
  1,622
  1,708
  1,799
  1,894
  1,993
  2,097
  2,206
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.775
  1.776
  1.776
  1.778
  1.777
  1.776
  1.776
  1.777
  1.777
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.775
  1.776
  1.777
  1.777
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.777
  1.775
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
Average production assets, $m
  65
  71
  77
  83
  89
  96
  103
  110
  118
  125
  134
  142
  151
  160
  170
  179
  190
  201
  212
  224
  236
  249
  262
  277
  291
  307
  323
  340
  358
  376
Working capital, $m
  142
  154
  167
  180
  194
  209
  224
  240
  256
  273
  291
  309
  328
  348
  369
  391
  413
  437
  461
  487
  514
  542
  571
  602
  634
  668
  703
  740
  778
  819
Total debt, $m
  64
  76
  88
  100
  113
  127
  141
  155
  170
  186
  203
  220
  237
  256
  275
  295
  316
  338
  361
  384
  409
  435
  463
  491
  521
  552
  585
  619
  654
  692
Total liabilities, $m
  131
  143
  155
  167
  180
  194
  208
  222
  237
  253
  270
  287
  304
  323
  342
  362
  383
  405
  428
  451
  476
  502
  529
  558
  588
  619
  651
  686
  721
  759
Total equity, $m
  250
  272
  295
  319
  344
  369
  396
  424
  453
  483
  514
  546
  580
  615
  652
  690
  730
  772
  815
  861
  908
  958
  1,010
  1,064
  1,121
  1,180
  1,242
  1,307
  1,376
  1,447
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  381
  415
  450
  486
  524
  563
  604
  646
  690
  736
  784
  833
  884
  938
  994
  1,052
  1,113
  1,177
  1,243
  1,312
  1,384
  1,460
  1,539
  1,622
  1,709
  1,799
  1,893
  1,993
  2,097
  2,206
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.260
  0.280
  0.300
  0.310
  0.330
  0.340
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  37
  42
  49
  55
  62
  69
  76
  83
  91
  99
  113
  122
  131
  141
  151
  162
  173
  184
  196
  209
  222
  236
  250
  265
  281
  298
  316
  334
  353
  373
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
Funds from operations, $m
  49
  55
  62
  69
  76
  83
  91
  99
  107
  116
  123
  133
  143
  153
  164
  175
  187
  199
  212
  225
  239
  254
  269
  286
  303
  320
  339
  359
  379
  401
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
Cash from operations, $m
  37
  43
  49
  55
  62
  69
  76
  83
  91
  99
  105
  114
  123
  133
  143
  153
  164
  175
  187
  199
  212
  226
  240
  255
  271
  287
  304
  322
  341
  360
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
Free cash flow, $m
  27
  33
  38
  44
  49
  56
  62
  69
  76
  83
  88
  96
  104
  113
  122
  131
  141
  151
  161
  172
  184
  196
  208
  222
  236
  250
  265
  281
  298
  316
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  38
  44
  50
  56
  62
  69
  76
  83
  91
  99
  105
  113
  122
  131
  141
  151
  161
  172
  184
  196
  209
  222
  236
  250
  265
  281
  298
  316
  334
  353
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  17
  22
  27
  32
  38
  43
  49
  55
  62
  69
  73
  81
  88
  96
  104
  113
  122
  131
  141
  151
  161
  172
  184
  196
  209
  222
  236
  250
  266
  282
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  17
  20
  24
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  36
  36
  35
  34
  34
  32
  31
  29
  26
  24
  22
  19
  17
  14
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Hooker Furniture Corporation is a home furnishings marketing, design and logistics company offering sourcing of residential casegoods and upholstery, as well as domestically-produced leather and fabric-upholstered furniture. The Company operates through three segments: casegoods furniture, upholstered furniture and all other. The Company's casegoods product categories include accents, home office, dining, bedroom and home entertainment furniture under the Hooker Furniture brand. Its residential upholstered seating companies include Bradington-Young, which is engaged in upscale motion and stationary leather furniture, and Sam Moore Furniture, which is engaged in upscale occasional chairs, settees, sofas and sectional seating with a focus on cover-to-frame customization. It also markets a line of imported leather upholstery under the Hooker Upholstery trade name. All other segment operates under the H Contract and Homeware brands.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hooker Furniture (HOFT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 133.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 21.2%
Total Debt to Equity 24.2%
Interest Coverage 40
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Return On Total Capital 12.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Return On Equity 14.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Asset Turnover 2.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25%
EBITDA Margin 8.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Operating Margin 6.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Net Profit Margin 4.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Effective Tax Rate 35.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.6%
Payout Ratio 20%

HOFT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HOFT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $620.632 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hooker Furniture. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Hooker Furniture. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HOFT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HOFT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hooker Furniture, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hooker Furniture.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HOFT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $49 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HOFT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Hooker Furniture.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hooker Furniture. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HOFT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HOFT are equal to 9.6%.

Life of production assets of 13.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hooker Furniture operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HOFT is equal to 20.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $229.46 million for Hooker Furniture - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11.776 million for Hooker Furniture is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hooker Furniture at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 5 Stocks With Falling Prices and Growing Yields   [Sep-25-18 04:50PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Hooker Furniture Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-30-18 12:00PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Hooker Furniture: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:21AM  Associated Press]
▶ Free Research Report as La-Z-Boy's EPS Surged 26%   [Jul-11-18 07:15AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Hooker Furniture Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Jun-05-18 12:00PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Hooker Furniture: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hooker Furniture to Host First Quarter Earnings Call June 5   [May-09-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Boone and Townsend Named Co-Presidents of Home Meridian   [May-07-18 04:03PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hooker Furniture posts 4Q profit   [Apr-05-18 08:41AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hooker Furniture Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-05-18 02:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Cheap Stocks To Invest In   [Feb-27-18 09:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Hooker Furniture posts 3Q profit   [08:29AM  Associated Press]
▶ 10 Best Contemporary High End Modern Furniture Brands in USA   [Nov-06-17 10:00AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ At $45.55, Is Hooker Furniture Corporation (HOFT) A Buy?   [Sep-21-17 12:09PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Thinly Traded Furniture Stock With 94% Growth Crafts New Base   [Sep-08-17 11:57AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Hooker Furniture posts 2Q profit   [Sep-07-17 11:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ Hooker Furniture Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-30-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Jeremy Hoff Named President of Hooker Upholstery   [Aug-10-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hooker Furniture posts 1Q profit   [08:36AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hooker Furniture to Host First Quarter Earnings Call June 6   [May-16-17 03:53PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hooker Furniture posts 4Q profit   [08:18AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hooker Furniture Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-01-17 10:29AM  GlobeNewswire]

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