Intrinsic value of Hornbeck Offshore Services - HOS

Previous Close

$3.82

  Intrinsic Value

$9.35

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+145%

Previous close

$3.82

 
Intrinsic value

$9.35

 
Up/down potential

+145%

 
Rating

str. buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HOS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -52.94
  3.80
  3.92
  4.03
  4.13
  4.21
  4.29
  4.36
  4.43
  4.48
  4.54
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.73
  4.75
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
Revenue, $m
  224
  233
  242
  251
  262
  273
  284
  297
  310
  324
  339
  354
  370
  388
  406
  425
  445
  467
  489
  513
  537
  563
  591
  620
  650
  682
  715
  751
  788
  827
  867
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  40
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  64
  67
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  131
  137
  144
  151
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  262
  269
  276
  283
  290
  297
  304
  312
  320
  328
  336
  344
  353
  362
  371
  380
  390
  399
  409
  419
  430
  441
  452
  463
  475
  486
  499
  511
  524
  537
Total operating expenses, $m
  289
  302
  311
  320
  329
  337
  346
  356
  366
  376
  387
  398
  408
  420
  433
  445
  457
  471
  484
  498
  513
  528
  544
  560
  576
  594
  610
  630
  648
  668
  688
Operating income, $m
  -64
  -70
  -69
  -68
  -66
  -64
  -62
  -59
  -56
  -52
  -48
  -43
  -38
  -33
  -26
  -20
  -12
  -4
  5
  14
  24
  35
  47
  60
  74
  89
  105
  121
  140
  159
  180
EBITDA, $m
  49
  47
  53
  59
  66
  73
  82
  91
  101
  111
  123
  135
  149
  163
  178
  195
  212
  231
  251
  273
  295
  320
  345
  373
  402
  433
  465
  500
  537
  576
  617
Interest expense (income), $m
  50
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  210
  221
  233
Earnings before tax, $m
  -109
  -120
  -122
  -123
  -125
  -126
  -127
  -127
  -128
  -128
  -128
  -128
  -128
  -127
  -126
  -125
  -123
  -121
  -119
  -116
  -113
  -110
  -106
  -101
  -96
  -91
  -84
  -78
  -70
  -62
  -53
Tax expense, $m
  -45
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -64
  -120
  -122
  -123
  -125
  -126
  -127
  -127
  -128
  -128
  -128
  -128
  -128
  -127
  -126
  -125
  -123
  -121
  -119
  -116
  -113
  -110
  -106
  -101
  -96
  -91
  -84
  -78
  -70
  -62
  -53

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  217
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,878
  2,768
  2,877
  2,992
  3,116
  3,247
  3,386
  3,534
  3,691
  3,856
  4,031
  4,216
  4,410
  4,616
  4,833
  5,061
  5,302
  5,555
  5,822
  6,102
  6,397
  6,708
  7,035
  7,378
  7,739
  8,119
  8,518
  8,937
  9,377
  9,840
  10,327
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,661
  2,768
  2,877
  2,992
  3,116
  3,247
  3,386
  3,534
  3,691
  3,856
  4,031
  4,216
  4,410
  4,616
  4,833
  5,061
  5,302
  5,555
  5,822
  6,102
  6,397
  6,708
  7,035
  7,378
  7,739
  8,119
  8,518
  8,937
  9,377
  9,840
  10,327
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
Average production assets, $m
  2,577
  2,674
  2,779
  2,891
  3,010
  3,137
  3,272
  3,415
  3,566
  3,726
  3,895
  4,073
  4,261
  4,460
  4,669
  4,890
  5,122
  5,367
  5,625
  5,896
  6,181
  6,481
  6,797
  7,128
  7,477
  7,844
  8,229
  8,634
  9,060
  9,507
  9,977
Working capital, $m
  226
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
Total debt, $m
  1,084
  1,142
  1,203
  1,267
  1,335
  1,408
  1,485
  1,567
  1,654
  1,745
  1,842
  1,944
  2,052
  2,166
  2,286
  2,413
  2,546
  2,686
  2,834
  2,990
  3,153
  3,325
  3,506
  3,696
  3,896
  4,107
  4,328
  4,560
  4,804
  5,061
  5,330
Total liabilities, $m
  1,475
  1,533
  1,594
  1,658
  1,726
  1,799
  1,876
  1,958
  2,045
  2,136
  2,233
  2,335
  2,443
  2,557
  2,677
  2,804
  2,937
  3,077
  3,225
  3,381
  3,544
  3,716
  3,897
  4,087
  4,287
  4,498
  4,719
  4,951
  5,195
  5,452
  5,721
Total equity, $m
  1,403
  1,235
  1,283
  1,335
  1,390
  1,448
  1,510
  1,576
  1,646
  1,720
  1,798
  1,880
  1,967
  2,059
  2,155
  2,257
  2,365
  2,478
  2,596
  2,722
  2,853
  2,992
  3,137
  3,291
  3,452
  3,621
  3,799
  3,986
  4,182
  4,389
  4,606
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,878
  2,768
  2,877
  2,993
  3,116
  3,247
  3,386
  3,534
  3,691
  3,856
  4,031
  4,215
  4,410
  4,616
  4,832
  5,061
  5,302
  5,555
  5,821
  6,103
  6,397
  6,708
  7,034
  7,378
  7,739
  8,119
  8,518
  8,937
  9,377
  9,841
  10,327
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.773
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.110
  1.110
  1.120
  1.120
  1.130
  1.130
  1.140
  1.140
  1.150
  1.150
  1.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -64
  -120
  -122
  -123
  -125
  -126
  -127
  -127
  -128
  -128
  -128
  -128
  -128
  -127
  -126
  -125
  -123
  -121
  -119
  -116
  -113
  -110
  -106
  -101
  -96
  -91
  -84
  -78
  -70
  -62
  -53
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  150
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  214
  225
  235
  247
  259
  271
  284
  298
  313
  328
  344
  361
  379
  397
  417
  438
Funds from operations, $m
  79
  -3
  0
  3
  7
  12
  17
  22
  28
  35
  43
  51
  59
  69
  79
  90
  101
  114
  128
  142
  158
  175
  193
  212
  232
  253
  277
  301
  327
  355
  384
Change in working capital, $m
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  53
  -3
  0
  3
  7
  11
  16
  22
  28
  35
  42
  50
  59
  68
  78
  89
  101
  113
  127
  141
  157
  174
  191
  210
  231
  252
  275
  300
  326
  353
  383
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -196
  -205
  -214
  -225
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -271
  -284
  -298
  -313
  -328
  -344
  -361
  -379
  -397
  -417
New CAPEX, $m
  -98
  -98
  -105
  -112
  -119
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -199
  -209
  -221
  -232
  -245
  -258
  -271
  -285
  -300
  -316
  -332
  -349
  -367
  -385
  -405
  -426
  -447
  -470
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -97
  -211
  -222
  -234
  -246
  -259
  -273
  -287
  -301
  -316
  -332
  -349
  -367
  -386
  -405
  -426
  -446
  -470
  -493
  -518
  -544
  -571
  -600
  -630
  -662
  -695
  -729
  -766
  -805
  -844
  -887
Free cash flow, $m
  -44
  -214
  -223
  -231
  -239
  -247
  -256
  -264
  -273
  -282
  -290
  -299
  -308
  -318
  -327
  -337
  -346
  -356
  -366
  -376
  -387
  -398
  -408
  -420
  -431
  -442
  -454
  -466
  -479
  -491
  -504
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  58
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  127
  133
  140
  148
  155
  164
  172
  181
  190
  200
  210
  221
  232
  244
  256
  269
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  169
  170
  175
  180
  184
  189
  193
  198
  202
  206
  211
  215
  219
  223
  227
  230
  234
  238
  241
  245
  248
  251
  254
  257
  260
  262
  265
  267
  269
  270
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  227
  230
  239
  248
  257
  266
  275
  285
  294
  303
  313
  323
  333
  343
  354
  363
  374
  386
  396
  409
  420
  432
  444
  457
  470
  483
  497
  511
  525
  539
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -43
  13
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  43
  -169
  -170
  -175
  -180
  -184
  -189
  -193
  -198
  -202
  -206
  -211
  -215
  -219
  -223
  -227
  -230
  -234
  -238
  -241
  -245
  -248
  -251
  -254
  -257
  -260
  -262
  -265
  -267
  -269
  -270
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  217
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  61
  -162
  -167
  -171
  -175
  -179
  -183
  -186
  -190
  -194
  -197
  -200
  -204
  -207
  -210
  -213
  -216
  -218
  -221
  -223
  -225
  -227
  -229
  -231
  -232
  -233
  -234
  -235
  -235
  -235
Discount rate, %
 
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.85
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.19
  13.85
  14.55
  15.27
  16.04
  16.84
  17.68
  18.57
  19.49
  20.47
  21.49
  22.57
  23.69
  24.88
  26.12
  27.43
  28.80
  30.24
  31.75
  33.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  57
  -138
  -129
  -119
  -109
  -99
  -89
  -79
  -69
  -59
  -50
  -42
  -35
  -28
  -23
  -18
  -14
  -10
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  83.1
  69.4
  58.1
  48.7
  41.0
  34.5
  29.2
  24.8
  21.1
  18.0
  15.4
  13.2
  11.4
  9.9
  8.6
  7.5
  6.6
  5.8
  5.1
  4.5
  4.0
  3.6
  3.2
  2.9
  2.6
  2.4
  2.2
  2.0
  1.8
  1.7

Hornbeck Offshore Services Inc. provides marine transportation, subsea installation and accommodation support services to exploration and production, oilfield service, offshore construction and the United States military customers. The Company focuses on providing marine solutions for the deepwater and ultradeepwater energy industry in domestic and select foreign locations. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates offshore supply vessels (OSVs), multi-purpose support vessels (MPSVs), and a shore-base facility to provide logistics support and specialty services to the offshore oil and gas exploration and production industry, primarily in the United States, Gulf of Mexico, Latin America and selected international markets. Its OSVs and MPSVs support the deep-well, deepwater and ultra-deepwater activities of the offshore oil and gas industry. It provides vessel management services for other vessel owners, such as crewing, daily operational management and maintenance activities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hornbeck Offshore Services (HOS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.2
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 0.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -52.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -66.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -29%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 77.3%
Total Debt to Equity 77.3%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Total Capital -2.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Equity -4.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.6%
EBITDA Margin 24.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.7%
Operating Margin -29%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -48.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Net Profit Margin -28.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Effective Tax Rate 41.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

HOS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HOS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $224 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hornbeck Offshore Services. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Hornbeck Offshore Services. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HOS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.1%, whose default value for HOS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hornbeck Offshore Services, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hornbeck Offshore Services.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HOS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 17.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $256 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HOS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.6% for Hornbeck Offshore Services.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hornbeck Offshore Services. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HOS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HOS are equal to 1150.2%.

Life of production assets of 22.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hornbeck Offshore Services operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HOS is equal to 4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1403 million for Hornbeck Offshore Services - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 37.527 million for Hornbeck Offshore Services is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hornbeck Offshore Services at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Hornbeck Offshore reports 3Q loss   [Nov-02-17 05:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hornbeck Offshore Announces Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Nov-01-17 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ How US Gasoline Inventories Support Crude Oil Futures   [Aug-24-17 02:36PM  Market Realist]
▶ Hornbeck Offshore reports 2Q loss   [Aug-03-17 10:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ Hornbeck Offshore Announces Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-02-17 04:27PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Hornbeck Offshore Announces New Credit Facility   [Jun-15-17 04:01PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Hornbeck Offshore reports 1Q loss   [May-03-17 07:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Oil and Gas Stock Roundup: Not Everyone Is Optimistic   [Feb-18-17 10:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ [$$] Offshore Vessel Servicers Poised for Brutal 2017   [01:30PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Offshore Vessel Servicers Poised for Brutal 2017   [01:30PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Betting On Abeona Therapeutics Inc (ABEO)   [Dec-08-16 01:36PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ The top 5 premarket gainers are all shipping company stocks   [Nov-15-16 09:02AM  at MarketWatch]
▶ Hornbeck Offshore Announces Third Quarter 2016 Results   [Nov-02-16 04:55PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Kroger, Houghton Mifflin Dip into Fridays 52-Week Low Club   [Sep-23-16 04:04PM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
Financial statements of HOS
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