Intrinsic value of Healthcare Realty Trust - HR

Previous Close

$29.03

  Intrinsic Value

$112.15

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+286%

Previous close

$29.03

 
Intrinsic value

$112.15

 
Up/down potential

+286%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as HR.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.61
  3.75
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.26
  4.34
  4.40
  4.46
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
Revenue, $m
  437
  452
  467
  484
  502
  522
  543
  565
  588
  613
  640
  668
  698
  730
  763
  798
  835
  874
  915
  959
  1,005
  1,053
  1,103
  1,157
  1,213
  1,272
  1,334
  1,399
  1,468
  1,540
Variable operating expenses, $m
  329
  340
  352
  364
  377
  392
  407
  423
  441
  459
  472
  493
  515
  538
  562
  588
  616
  645
  675
  707
  741
  776
  813
  853
  894
  938
  983
  1,031
  1,082
  1,135
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  329
  340
  352
  364
  377
  392
  407
  423
  441
  459
  472
  493
  515
  538
  562
  588
  616
  645
  675
  707
  741
  776
  813
  853
  894
  938
  983
  1,031
  1,082
  1,135
Operating income, $m
  108
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  154
  168
  176
  183
  192
  200
  210
  219
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  319
  334
  350
  368
  386
  405
EBITDA, $m
  444
  458
  474
  491
  510
  529
  550
  573
  597
  622
  649
  678
  708
  740
  774
  810
  847
  887
  929
  973
  1,019
  1,068
  1,120
  1,174
  1,231
  1,290
  1,353
  1,419
  1,489
  1,562
Interest expense (income), $m
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Earnings before tax, $m
  108
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  154
  168
  175
  183
  192
  200
  210
  219
  230
  240
  252
  264
  276
  290
  304
  318
  334
  350
  367
  385
  404
Tax expense, $m
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
Net income, $m
  79
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  168
  175
  184
  193
  202
  211
  222
  232
  244
  256
  268
  281
  295

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  -1,424
  -1,471
  -1,522
  -1,577
  -1,636
  -1,699
  -1,767
  -1,839
  -1,916
  -1,998
  -2,085
  -2,177
  -2,274
  -2,376
  -2,485
  -2,599
  -2,720
  -2,848
  -2,982
  -3,123
  -3,272
  -3,429
  -3,594
  -3,768
  -3,950
  -4,143
  -4,345
  -4,557
  -4,780
  -5,015
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  -1,424
  -1,471
  -1,522
  -1,577
  -1,636
  -1,699
  -1,767
  -1,839
  -1,916
  -1,998
  -2,085
  -2,177
  -2,274
  -2,376
  -2,485
  -2,599
  -2,720
  -2,848
  -2,982
  -3,123
  -3,272
  -3,429
  -3,594
  -3,768
  -3,950
  -4,143
  -4,345
  -4,557
  -4,780
  -5,015
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
  -0.307
Average production assets, $m
  3,287
  3,395
  3,513
  3,640
  3,776
  3,923
  4,079
  4,246
  4,424
  4,612
  4,812
  5,024
  5,248
  5,485
  5,736
  6,000
  6,279
  6,573
  6,883
  7,210
  7,553
  7,915
  8,296
  8,697
  9,119
  9,562
  10,029
  10,519
  11,035
  11,576
Working capital, $m
  -1,446
  -1,493
  -1,545
  -1,601
  -1,661
  -1,725
  -1,794
  -1,867
  -1,946
  -2,029
  -2,116
  -2,210
  -2,308
  -2,413
  -2,523
  -2,639
  -2,762
  -2,891
  -3,027
  -3,171
  -3,322
  -3,481
  -3,649
  -3,825
  -4,011
  -4,206
  -4,411
  -4,626
  -4,853
  -5,092
Total debt, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Total liabilities, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Total equity, $m
  -1,425
  -1,472
  -1,523
  -1,578
  -1,637
  -1,701
  -1,769
  -1,841
  -1,918
  -2,000
  -2,087
  -2,179
  -2,276
  -2,379
  -2,487
  -2,602
  -2,723
  -2,850
  -2,985
  -3,126
  -3,275
  -3,432
  -3,598
  -3,771
  -3,954
  -4,147
  -4,349
  -4,562
  -4,785
  -5,020
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  -1,424
  -1,471
  -1,521
  -1,576
  -1,635
  -1,699
  -1,767
  -1,839
  -1,916
  -1,998
  -2,085
  -2,177
  -2,274
  -2,377
  -2,485
  -2,599
  -2,720
  -2,847
  -2,982
  -3,123
  -3,272
  -3,429
  -3,594
  -3,767
  -3,950
  -4,143
  -4,345
  -4,557
  -4,780
  -5,015
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001
  1.001

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  79
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  168
  175
  184
  193
  202
  211
  222
  232
  244
  256
  268
  281
  295
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  336
  347
  358
  371
  385
  399
  415
  432
  449
  468
  481
  502
  525
  549
  574
  600
  628
  657
  688
  721
  755
  792
  830
  870
  912
  956
  1,003
  1,052
  1,103
  1,158
Funds from operations, $m
  414
  428
  443
  459
  476
  494
  514
  535
  557
  581
  604
  630
  659
  688
  720
  753
  788
  825
  864
  905
  948
  993
  1,041
  1,091
  1,144
  1,200
  1,259
  1,320
  1,385
  1,453
Change in working capital, $m
  -43
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -216
  -227
  -238
Cash from operations, $m
  458
  476
  494
  514
  536
  559
  583
  608
  635
  664
  692
  724
  757
  793
  830
  869
  911
  954
  1,000
  1,048
  1,099
  1,153
  1,209
  1,268
  1,330
  1,395
  1,464
  1,536
  1,611
  1,691
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -319
  -329
  -340
  -351
  -364
  -378
  -392
  -408
  -425
  -442
  -461
  -481
  -502
  -525
  -549
  -574
  -600
  -628
  -657
  -688
  -721
  -755
  -792
  -830
  -870
  -912
  -956
  -1,003
  -1,052
  -1,103
New CAPEX, $m
  -95
  -108
  -118
  -127
  -137
  -146
  -157
  -167
  -178
  -189
  -200
  -212
  -224
  -237
  -250
  -264
  -279
  -294
  -310
  -326
  -344
  -362
  -381
  -401
  -422
  -444
  -466
  -490
  -515
  -542
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -414
  -437
  -458
  -478
  -501
  -524
  -549
  -575
  -603
  -631
  -661
  -693
  -726
  -762
  -799
  -838
  -879
  -922
  -967
  -1,014
  -1,065
  -1,117
  -1,173
  -1,231
  -1,292
  -1,356
  -1,422
  -1,493
  -1,567
  -1,645
Free cash flow, $m
  44
  39
  37
  36
  35
  35
  34
  33
  33
  33
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -41
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -235
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -41
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -235
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  -8
  -14
  -19
  -24
  -29
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -72
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -189
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  41
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  97
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  202
  213
  224
  235
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  1,385
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,428
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  97
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  202
  213
  224
  235
Discount rate, %
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,428
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  97
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  202
  213
  224
  235
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated is a self-managed and self-administered real estate investment trust. The Company owns, leases, manages, acquires, finances, develops and redevelops real estate properties associated primarily with the delivery of outpatient healthcare services across the United States. The Company provided property management services for 146 healthcare-related properties across the nation, totaling approximately 10.3 million square feet, as of December 31, 2016. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's 202 owned real estate properties were located in 27 states and totaled approximately 14.6 million square feet. The Company's medical office/outpatient facilities are located in various states of the United States, such as Alabama, Arizona, California, Colorado, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Washington.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Healthcare Realty Trust (HR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 39.3
Price to Sales 8.2
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -23.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 45.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 76.5%
Total Debt to Equity 76.5%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Total Capital 3.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Return On Equity 5.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 64.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 64%
EBITDA Margin 66.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.1%
Operating Margin 24.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Net Profit Margin 20.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 153.5%

HR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $424 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Healthcare Realty Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Healthcare Realty Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 0%, whose default value for HR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Healthcare Realty Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Healthcare Realty Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Healthcare Realty Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Healthcare Realty Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HR stock is equal to 2.4%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HR are equal to 751.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Healthcare Realty Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HR is equal to -330.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Healthcare Realty Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 118 million for Healthcare Realty Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Healthcare Realty Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Healthcare Realty: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 07:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ Healthcare Realty Trust Announces First Quarter Dividend   [May-01-18 01:19PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Healthcare Realty reports 4Q results   [Feb-14-18 05:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Healthcare Realty Trust Announces Fourth Quarter Dividend   [Feb-13-18 02:20PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 2 REITs To Avoid In 2018, According To BMO   [Jan-09-18 05:24PM  Benzinga]
▶ Healthcare Realty reports 3Q results   [05:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ Healthcare Realty Trust Announces Third Quarter Dividend   [Oct-31-17 12:46PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated (HR) Could Be A Buy   [Sep-19-17 11:51AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Healthcare Realty reports 2Q results   [Aug-04-17 01:35AM  Associated Press]
▶ Healthcare Realty Trust Announces Second Quarter Dividend   [Aug-01-17 02:53PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Healthcare Realty reports 1Q results   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Healthcare Realty Trust Announces First Quarter Dividend   [May-02-17 02:39PM  GlobeNewswire]
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