Intrinsic value of Healthcare Realty Trust - HR

Previous Close

$32.33

  Intrinsic Value

$3.32

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

  Value-price divergence*

+39%

Previous close

$32.33

 
Intrinsic value

$3.32

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+39%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as HR.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.19
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  412
  420
  430
  441
  453
  467
  482
  499
  516
  536
  556
  578
  602
  627
  653
  681
  711
  743
  776
  811
  849
  888
  930
  973
  1,019
  1,068
  1,119
  1,173
  1,229
  1,289
  1,351
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  348
  356
  365
  375
  387
  399
  413
  427
  443
  460
  478
  497
  518
  540
  563
  588
  614
  642
  671
  702
  734
  769
  805
  843
  883
  925
  970
  1,017
  1,066
  1,118
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  310
  348
  356
  365
  375
  387
  399
  413
  427
  443
  460
  478
  497
  518
  540
  563
  588
  614
  642
  671
  702
  734
  769
  805
  843
  883
  925
  970
  1,017
  1,066
  1,118
Operating income, $m
  102
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  83
  86
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
EBITDA, $m
  233
  206
  211
  217
  223
  229
  237
  245
  254
  263
  273
  284
  295
  308
  321
  335
  349
  365
  381
  399
  417
  436
  457
  478
  501
  524
  550
  576
  604
  633
  664
Interest expense (income), $m
  56
  53
  54
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  115
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  177
Earnings before tax, $m
  86
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
Tax expense, $m
  0
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
Net income, $m
  86
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,041
  3,090
  3,161
  3,242
  3,334
  3,435
  3,545
  3,666
  3,797
  3,938
  4,089
  4,251
  4,423
  4,607
  4,802
  5,009
  5,229
  5,461
  5,707
  5,966
  6,240
  6,530
  6,835
  7,156
  7,495
  7,852
  8,228
  8,623
  9,039
  9,477
  9,937
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,036
  3,090
  3,161
  3,242
  3,334
  3,435
  3,545
  3,666
  3,797
  3,938
  4,089
  4,251
  4,423
  4,607
  4,802
  5,009
  5,229
  5,461
  5,707
  5,966
  6,240
  6,530
  6,835
  7,156
  7,495
  7,852
  8,228
  8,623
  9,039
  9,477
  9,937
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
Average production assets, $m
  2,714
  2,768
  2,831
  2,904
  2,986
  3,076
  3,176
  3,284
  3,401
  3,527
  3,662
  3,807
  3,962
  4,126
  4,301
  4,487
  4,683
  4,891
  5,111
  5,344
  5,590
  5,849
  6,122
  6,410
  6,713
  7,033
  7,369
  7,724
  8,096
  8,488
  8,901
Working capital, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
Total debt, $m
  1,264
  1,288
  1,321
  1,358
  1,399
  1,446
  1,496
  1,551
  1,611
  1,676
  1,745
  1,818
  1,897
  1,981
  2,070
  2,165
  2,265
  2,372
  2,484
  2,603
  2,728
  2,860
  2,999
  3,146
  3,301
  3,464
  3,636
  3,817
  4,007
  4,207
  4,417
Total liabilities, $m
  1,387
  1,412
  1,445
  1,482
  1,523
  1,570
  1,620
  1,675
  1,735
  1,800
  1,869
  1,942
  2,021
  2,105
  2,194
  2,289
  2,389
  2,496
  2,608
  2,727
  2,852
  2,984
  3,123
  3,270
  3,425
  3,588
  3,760
  3,941
  4,131
  4,331
  4,541
Total equity, $m
  1,653
  1,678
  1,716
  1,761
  1,810
  1,865
  1,925
  1,991
  2,062
  2,138
  2,220
  2,308
  2,402
  2,501
  2,607
  2,720
  2,839
  2,965
  3,099
  3,240
  3,389
  3,546
  3,711
  3,886
  4,070
  4,264
  4,468
  4,682
  4,908
  5,146
  5,396
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,040
  3,090
  3,161
  3,243
  3,333
  3,435
  3,545
  3,666
  3,797
  3,938
  4,089
  4,250
  4,423
  4,606
  4,801
  5,009
  5,228
  5,461
  5,707
  5,967
  6,241
  6,530
  6,834
  7,156
  7,495
  7,852
  8,228
  8,623
  9,039
  9,477
  9,937
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.765
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.790
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  86
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  131
  134
  137
  141
  145
  149
  154
  159
  165
  171
  177
  184
  191
  199
  208
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  283
  296
  310
  324
  340
  356
  373
  391
  410
  430
Funds from operations, $m
  126
  148
  152
  156
  160
  165
  170
  176
  182
  189
  196
  203
  212
  220
  229
  239
  250
  261
  272
  284
  297
  311
  325
  341
  357
  373
  391
  410
  429
  450
  472
Change in working capital, $m
  -25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  151
  148
  152
  156
  160
  165
  170
  176
  182
  189
  196
  204
  212
  221
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  298
  312
  326
  341
  357
  374
  392
  410
  430
  451
  472
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -131
  -134
  -137
  -140
  -144
  -149
  -153
  -159
  -164
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -191
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -226
  -236
  -247
  -258
  -270
  -283
  -296
  -310
  -324
  -340
  -356
  -373
  -391
  -410
New CAPEX, $m
  -296
  -54
  -64
  -73
  -82
  -91
  -99
  -108
  -117
  -126
  -135
  -145
  -155
  -165
  -175
  -186
  -197
  -208
  -220
  -233
  -246
  -259
  -273
  -288
  -303
  -320
  -336
  -354
  -373
  -392
  -412
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -238
  -185
  -198
  -210
  -222
  -235
  -248
  -261
  -276
  -290
  -305
  -322
  -339
  -356
  -374
  -394
  -414
  -434
  -456
  -480
  -504
  -529
  -556
  -584
  -613
  -644
  -676
  -710
  -746
  -783
  -822
Free cash flow, $m
  -87
  -37
  -46
  -54
  -62
  -70
  -78
  -86
  -93
  -101
  -110
  -118
  -127
  -135
  -144
  -154
  -163
  -173
  -184
  -195
  -206
  -218
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -270
  -285
  -300
  -316
  -333
  -350
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -175
  24
  32
  37
  42
  46
  51
  55
  60
  64
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
  112
  119
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  190
  200
  210
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  449
  16
  24
  29
  34
  39
  44
  49
  54
  59
  64
  68
  73
  79
  84
  90
  96
  102
  108
  115
  121
  129
  136
  144
  152
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
  208
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  269
  40
  56
  66
  76
  85
  95
  104
  114
  123
  133
  142
  152
  163
  173
  185
  196
  208
  220
  234
  246
  261
  275
  291
  307
  323
  341
  359
  378
  398
  418
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  182
  3
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -410
  -30
  -39
  -44
  -50
  -55
  -60
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -141
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -194
  -204
  -215
  -226
  -238
  -250
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -22
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
Discount rate, %
 
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.42
  17.24
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
  28.09
  29.49
  30.97
  32.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -20
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -24
  -23
  -22
  -20
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.6
  99.0
  98.3
  97.6
  96.7
  95.8
  94.8
  93.7
  92.7
  91.5
  90.4
  89.2
  88.0
  86.8
  85.6
  84.4
  83.2
  81.9
  80.7
  79.5
  78.3
  77.0
  75.8
  74.6
  73.4
  72.3
  71.1
  69.9
  68.8
  67.7

Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated is a self-managed and self-administered real estate investment trust. The Company owns, leases, manages, acquires, finances, develops and redevelops real estate properties associated primarily with the delivery of outpatient healthcare services across the United States. The Company provided property management services for 146 healthcare-related properties across the nation, totaling approximately 10.3 million square feet, as of December 31, 2016. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's 202 owned real estate properties were located in 27 states and totaled approximately 14.6 million square feet. The Company's medical office/outpatient facilities are located in various states of the United States, such as Alabama, Arizona, California, Colorado, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Washington.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Healthcare Realty Trust (HR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 43.8
Price to Sales 9.1
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -26
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 45.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 76.5%
Total Debt to Equity 76.5%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Total Capital 3.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Return On Equity 5.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 64.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 64%
EBITDA Margin 66.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.1%
Operating Margin 24.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Net Profit Margin 20.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 153.5%

HR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $412 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Healthcare Realty Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Healthcare Realty Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.9%, whose default value for HR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Healthcare Realty Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Healthcare Realty Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.2% for Healthcare Realty Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Healthcare Realty Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HR are equal to 658.6%.

Life of production assets of 20.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Healthcare Realty Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HR is equal to -1.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1653 million for Healthcare Realty Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 124.205 million for Healthcare Realty Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Healthcare Realty Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated (HR) Could Be A Buy   [Sep-19-17 11:51AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Healthcare Realty reports 2Q results   [Aug-04-17 01:35AM  Associated Press]
▶ Healthcare Realty Trust Announces Second Quarter Dividend   [Aug-01-17 02:53PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Healthcare Realty reports 1Q results   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Healthcare Realty Trust Announces First Quarter Dividend   [May-02-17 02:39PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Healthcare Realty reports 4Q results   [Feb-15-17 06:42PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of HR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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