Intrinsic value of Hormel Foods - HRL

Previous Close

$37.17

  Intrinsic Value

$24.85

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-33%

Previous close

$37.17

 
Intrinsic value

$24.85

 
Up/down potential

-33%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HRL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 19.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  9,351
  9,566
  9,812
  10,088
  10,394
  10,730
  11,095
  11,491
  11,917
  12,374
  12,863
  13,386
  13,941
  14,532
  15,159
  15,823
  16,527
  17,270
  18,056
  18,886
  19,761
  20,684
  21,657
  22,683
  23,762
  24,899
  26,096
  27,355
  28,680
  30,074
Variable operating expenses, $m
  8,083
  8,261
  8,466
  8,695
  8,949
  9,228
  9,531
  9,860
  10,214
  10,594
  10,685
  11,119
  11,581
  12,071
  12,592
  13,144
  13,728
  14,346
  14,999
  15,688
  16,415
  17,182
  17,990
  18,842
  19,739
  20,683
  21,677
  22,723
  23,824
  24,981
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  8,083
  8,261
  8,466
  8,695
  8,949
  9,228
  9,531
  9,860
  10,214
  10,594
  10,685
  11,119
  11,581
  12,071
  12,592
  13,144
  13,728
  14,346
  14,999
  15,688
  16,415
  17,182
  17,990
  18,842
  19,739
  20,683
  21,677
  22,723
  23,824
  24,981
Operating income, $m
  1,269
  1,305
  1,347
  1,394
  1,445
  1,502
  1,564
  1,631
  1,703
  1,781
  2,178
  2,267
  2,361
  2,461
  2,567
  2,679
  2,798
  2,924
  3,057
  3,198
  3,346
  3,502
  3,667
  3,841
  4,024
  4,216
  4,419
  4,632
  4,856
  5,092
EBITDA, $m
  2,001
  2,047
  2,100
  2,159
  2,225
  2,296
  2,375
  2,459
  2,551
  2,648
  2,753
  2,865
  2,984
  3,110
  3,244
  3,387
  3,537
  3,696
  3,864
  4,042
  4,229
  4,427
  4,635
  4,855
  5,086
  5,329
  5,585
  5,855
  6,138
  6,437
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  14
  16
  18
  21
  25
  28
  32
  37
  41
  47
  52
  58
  64
  71
  78
  85
  93
  102
  111
  120
  130
  141
  152
  163
  176
  189
  202
  217
  232
  248
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,255
  1,289
  1,328
  1,372
  1,421
  1,474
  1,532
  1,594
  1,662
  1,734
  2,126
  2,209
  2,296
  2,390
  2,489
  2,594
  2,705
  2,822
  2,947
  3,078
  3,216
  3,362
  3,515
  3,677
  3,848
  4,027
  4,216
  4,415
  4,624
  4,845
Tax expense, $m
  339
  348
  359
  370
  384
  398
  414
  430
  449
  468
  574
  596
  620
  645
  672
  700
  730
  762
  796
  831
  868
  908
  949
  993
  1,039
  1,087
  1,138
  1,192
  1,249
  1,308
Net income, $m
  916
  941
  970
  1,002
  1,037
  1,076
  1,118
  1,164
  1,213
  1,266
  1,552
  1,612
  1,676
  1,745
  1,817
  1,894
  1,975
  2,060
  2,151
  2,247
  2,348
  2,454
  2,566
  2,684
  2,809
  2,940
  3,078
  3,223
  3,376
  3,536

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,117
  7,280
  7,468
  7,678
  7,910
  8,166
  8,444
  8,745
  9,069
  9,417
  9,790
  10,187
  10,610
  11,059
  11,537
  12,042
  12,577
  13,143
  13,741
  14,373
  15,039
  15,741
  16,482
  17,262
  18,084
  18,949
  19,860
  20,818
  21,827
  22,887
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,117
  7,280
  7,468
  7,678
  7,910
  8,166
  8,444
  8,745
  9,069
  9,417
  9,790
  10,187
  10,610
  11,059
  11,537
  12,042
  12,577
  13,143
  13,741
  14,373
  15,039
  15,741
  16,482
  17,262
  18,084
  18,949
  19,860
  20,818
  21,827
  22,887
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
Average production assets, $m
  4,180
  4,276
  4,386
  4,509
  4,646
  4,796
  4,960
  5,136
  5,327
  5,531
  5,750
  5,983
  6,232
  6,496
  6,776
  7,073
  7,387
  7,720
  8,071
  8,442
  8,833
  9,246
  9,681
  10,139
  10,622
  11,130
  11,665
  12,228
  12,820
  13,443
Working capital, $m
  281
  287
  294
  303
  312
  322
  333
  345
  358
  371
  386
  402
  418
  436
  455
  475
  496
  518
  542
  567
  593
  621
  650
  680
  713
  747
  783
  821
  860
  902
Total debt, $m
  292
  340
  395
  456
  524
  598
  680
  768
  862
  964
  1,073
  1,189
  1,312
  1,443
  1,583
  1,730
  1,887
  2,052
  2,227
  2,411
  2,605
  2,811
  3,027
  3,255
  3,495
  3,747
  4,013
  4,293
  4,587
  4,897
Total liabilities, $m
  2,078
  2,126
  2,181
  2,242
  2,310
  2,384
  2,466
  2,553
  2,648
  2,750
  2,859
  2,975
  3,098
  3,229
  3,369
  3,516
  3,673
  3,838
  4,012
  4,197
  4,391
  4,596
  4,813
  5,041
  5,281
  5,533
  5,799
  6,079
  6,373
  6,683
Total equity, $m
  5,039
  5,155
  5,287
  5,436
  5,601
  5,781
  5,978
  6,191
  6,421
  6,667
  6,931
  7,212
  7,512
  7,830
  8,168
  8,526
  8,905
  9,305
  9,729
  10,176
  10,647
  11,145
  11,669
  12,222
  12,803
  13,416
  14,061
  14,739
  15,453
  16,204
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,117
  7,281
  7,468
  7,678
  7,911
  8,165
  8,444
  8,744
  9,069
  9,417
  9,790
  10,187
  10,610
  11,059
  11,537
  12,042
  12,578
  13,143
  13,741
  14,373
  15,038
  15,741
  16,482
  17,263
  18,084
  18,949
  19,860
  20,818
  21,826
  22,887
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.060
  0.070
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  916
  941
  970
  1,002
  1,037
  1,076
  1,118
  1,164
  1,213
  1,266
  1,552
  1,612
  1,676
  1,745
  1,817
  1,894
  1,975
  2,060
  2,151
  2,247
  2,348
  2,454
  2,566
  2,684
  2,809
  2,940
  3,078
  3,223
  3,376
  3,536
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  733
  742
  753
  766
  779
  794
  811
  828
  847
  868
  575
  598
  623
  650
  678
  707
  739
  772
  807
  844
  883
  925
  968
  1,014
  1,062
  1,113
  1,166
  1,223
  1,282
  1,344
Funds from operations, $m
  1,649
  1,684
  1,723
  1,767
  1,816
  1,870
  1,929
  1,992
  2,060
  2,134
  2,127
  2,211
  2,300
  2,394
  2,494
  2,601
  2,713
  2,832
  2,958
  3,091
  3,231
  3,379
  3,534
  3,698
  3,871
  4,053
  4,244
  4,446
  4,658
  4,881
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
Cash from operations, $m
  1,644
  1,677
  1,716
  1,759
  1,807
  1,860
  1,918
  1,980
  2,048
  2,120
  2,112
  2,195
  2,283
  2,376
  2,476
  2,581
  2,692
  2,810
  2,935
  3,066
  3,205
  3,351
  3,505
  3,668
  3,839
  4,019
  4,209
  4,408
  4,618
  4,839
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -410
  -418
  -428
  -439
  -451
  -465
  -480
  -496
  -514
  -533
  -553
  -575
  -598
  -623
  -650
  -678
  -707
  -739
  -772
  -807
  -844
  -883
  -925
  -968
  -1,014
  -1,062
  -1,113
  -1,166
  -1,223
  -1,282
New CAPEX, $m
  -83
  -96
  -110
  -123
  -137
  -150
  -163
  -177
  -190
  -204
  -219
  -233
  -248
  -264
  -280
  -297
  -314
  -332
  -351
  -371
  -391
  -413
  -435
  -458
  -483
  -508
  -535
  -563
  -592
  -623
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -493
  -514
  -538
  -562
  -588
  -615
  -643
  -673
  -704
  -737
  -772
  -808
  -846
  -887
  -930
  -975
  -1,021
  -1,071
  -1,123
  -1,178
  -1,235
  -1,296
  -1,360
  -1,426
  -1,497
  -1,570
  -1,648
  -1,729
  -1,815
  -1,905
Free cash flow, $m
  1,150
  1,163
  1,178
  1,197
  1,220
  1,246
  1,275
  1,308
  1,344
  1,383
  1,341
  1,387
  1,436
  1,489
  1,546
  1,606
  1,671
  1,739
  1,811
  1,888
  1,969
  2,055
  2,146
  2,241
  2,342
  2,448
  2,561
  2,679
  2,803
  2,934
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  42
  48
  55
  61
  68
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  109
  116
  124
  131
  139
  148
  156
  165
  175
  184
  195
  205
  216
  228
  240
  253
  266
  280
  294
  310
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  42
  48
  55
  61
  68
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  109
  116
  124
  131
  139
  148
  156
  165
  175
  184
  195
  205
  216
  228
  240
  253
  266
  280
  294
  310
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,193
  1,211
  1,233
  1,258
  1,288
  1,320
  1,356
  1,395
  1,438
  1,484
  1,449
  1,503
  1,560
  1,620
  1,685
  1,754
  1,827
  1,904
  1,986
  2,072
  2,164
  2,260
  2,362
  2,469
  2,582
  2,701
  2,827
  2,959
  3,098
  3,244
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -99
  -116
  -132
  -149
  -165
  -181
  -197
  -213
  -230
  -246
  -264
  -281
  -300
  -318
  -338
  -358
  -379
  -401
  -423
  -447
  -472
  -497
  -524
  -552
  -582
  -613
  -645
  -679
  -714
  -751
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,094
  1,095
  1,100
  1,110
  1,123
  1,139
  1,159
  1,182
  1,209
  1,238
  1,186
  1,221
  1,260
  1,302
  1,347
  1,396
  1,448
  1,503
  1,563
  1,625
  1,692
  1,763
  1,837
  1,917
  2,000
  2,089
  2,182
  2,280
  2,384
  2,493
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,049
  1,002
  958
  914
  870
  827
  783
  739
  694
  649
  563
  521
  479
  437
  396
  355
  315
  277
  241
  207
  175
  146
  120
  98
  78
  61
  47
  35
  26
  19
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Hormel Foods Corporation is engaged in the production of a range of meat and food products. The Company operates through four segments: Grocery Products, which is engaged in the processing, marketing and sale of shelf-stable food products sold for the retail market and health and also consists of nutrition products, including Muscle Milk protein products.; Refrigerated Foods, which consists of the processing, marketing and sale of branded and unbranded pork, beef, chicken and turkey products for retail, foodservice and fresh product customers; Jennie-O Turkey Store (JOTS), which consists of the processing, marketing and sale of branded and unbranded turkey products for retail, foodservice and fresh product customers; and International & Other, which includes Hormel Foods International Corporation, which manufactures, markets and sells the Company products internationally.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hormel Foods (HRL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.2
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -13.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 5.1%
Total Debt to Equity 5.1%
Interest Coverage 99
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Return On Total Capital 17.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Return On Equity 18.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.1%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.3%
EBITDA Margin 15.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Operating Margin 14%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 14%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Net Profit Margin 9.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Effective Tax Rate 33.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.7%
Payout Ratio 40.9%

HRL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HRL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $9168 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hormel Foods. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Hormel Foods. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HRL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HRL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hormel Foods, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hormel Foods.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HRL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HRL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Hormel Foods.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hormel Foods. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HRL stock is equal to -0.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HRL are equal to 44.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hormel Foods operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HRL is equal to 3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4940 million for Hormel Foods - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 528 million for Hormel Foods is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hormel Foods at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $19.6 billion.

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