Intrinsic value of Harris Corporation - HRS

Previous Close

$189.13

  Intrinsic Value

$118.37

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-37%

Previous close

$189.13

 
Intrinsic value

$118.37

 
Up/down potential

-37%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HRS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 22.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.50
  8.15
  7.83
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.67
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  6,707
  7,254
  7,822
  8,413
  9,027
  9,665
  10,328
  11,017
  11,734
  12,480
  13,256
  14,065
  14,907
  15,785
  16,701
  17,656
  18,653
  19,695
  20,783
  21,920
  23,110
  24,354
  25,655
  27,018
  28,444
  29,938
  31,502
  33,141
  34,859
  36,660
Variable operating expenses, $m
  5,433
  5,824
  6,230
  6,652
  7,091
  7,548
  8,022
  8,515
  9,027
  9,561
  9,480
  10,058
  10,660
  11,288
  11,943
  12,626
  13,339
  14,084
  14,862
  15,675
  16,526
  17,415
  18,346
  19,320
  20,340
  21,409
  22,527
  23,700
  24,928
  26,215
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,433
  5,824
  6,230
  6,652
  7,091
  7,548
  8,022
  8,515
  9,027
  9,561
  9,480
  10,058
  10,660
  11,288
  11,943
  12,626
  13,339
  14,084
  14,862
  15,675
  16,526
  17,415
  18,346
  19,320
  20,340
  21,409
  22,527
  23,700
  24,928
  26,215
Operating income, $m
  1,275
  1,431
  1,592
  1,761
  1,936
  2,117
  2,306
  2,503
  2,707
  2,919
  3,777
  4,007
  4,247
  4,497
  4,758
  5,030
  5,314
  5,611
  5,921
  6,245
  6,584
  6,938
  7,309
  7,697
  8,104
  8,529
  8,975
  9,442
  9,931
  10,444
EBITDA, $m
  2,060
  2,227
  2,402
  2,583
  2,772
  2,968
  3,171
  3,383
  3,603
  3,832
  4,070
  4,319
  4,577
  4,847
  5,128
  5,421
  5,728
  6,048
  6,382
  6,731
  7,096
  7,478
  7,878
  8,296
  8,734
  9,193
  9,673
  10,176
  10,704
  11,257
Interest expense (income), $m
  168
  205
  234
  266
  298
  332
  367
  404
  442
  482
  523
  565
  610
  656
  705
  755
  808
  862
  920
  979
  1,042
  1,107
  1,175
  1,246
  1,321
  1,399
  1,481
  1,567
  1,656
  1,750
  1,849
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,070
  1,196
  1,327
  1,462
  1,603
  1,750
  1,902
  2,061
  2,225
  2,397
  3,211
  3,397
  3,591
  3,792
  4,003
  4,223
  4,452
  4,691
  4,942
  5,203
  5,477
  5,763
  6,063
  6,376
  6,704
  7,048
  7,408
  7,785
  8,181
  8,595
Tax expense, $m
  289
  323
  358
  395
  433
  472
  514
  556
  601
  647
  867
  917
  969
  1,024
  1,081
  1,140
  1,202
  1,267
  1,334
  1,405
  1,479
  1,556
  1,637
  1,722
  1,810
  1,903
  2,000
  2,102
  2,209
  2,321
Net income, $m
  781
  873
  969
  1,068
  1,170
  1,277
  1,389
  1,504
  1,624
  1,750
  2,344
  2,480
  2,621
  2,768
  2,922
  3,082
  3,250
  3,425
  3,607
  3,798
  3,998
  4,207
  4,426
  4,655
  4,894
  5,145
  5,408
  5,683
  5,972
  6,274

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  10,681
  11,551
  12,456
  13,397
  14,374
  15,390
  16,446
  17,543
  18,685
  19,873
  21,109
  22,396
  23,737
  25,135
  26,593
  28,115
  29,703
  31,361
  33,094
  34,905
  36,799
  38,780
  40,852
  43,022
  45,293
  47,671
  50,163
  52,773
  55,508
  58,375
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  10,681
  11,551
  12,456
  13,397
  14,374
  15,390
  16,446
  17,543
  18,685
  19,873
  21,109
  22,396
  23,737
  25,135
  26,593
  28,115
  29,703
  31,361
  33,094
  34,905
  36,799
  38,780
  40,852
  43,022
  45,293
  47,671
  50,163
  52,773
  55,508
  58,375
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
Average production assets, $m
  4,460
  4,824
  5,202
  5,595
  6,003
  6,427
  6,868
  7,327
  7,803
  8,299
  8,815
  9,353
  9,913
  10,497
  11,106
  11,741
  12,404
  13,097
  13,821
  14,577
  15,368
  16,195
  17,061
  17,967
  18,915
  19,909
  20,949
  22,039
  23,181
  24,379
Working capital, $m
  510
  551
  595
  639
  686
  735
  785
  837
  892
  948
  1,007
  1,069
  1,133
  1,200
  1,269
  1,342
  1,418
  1,497
  1,580
  1,666
  1,756
  1,851
  1,950
  2,053
  2,162
  2,275
  2,394
  2,519
  2,649
  2,786
Total debt, $m
  4,341
  4,922
  5,525
  6,153
  6,805
  7,482
  8,186
  8,918
  9,680
  10,472
  11,297
  12,155
  13,050
  13,982
  14,955
  15,969
  17,029
  18,135
  19,291
  20,499
  21,762
  23,083
  24,466
  25,912
  27,427
  29,014
  30,676
  32,417
  34,241
  36,153
Total liabilities, $m
  7,124
  7,705
  8,308
  8,936
  9,588
  10,265
  10,969
  11,701
  12,463
  13,255
  14,080
  14,938
  15,833
  16,765
  17,738
  18,752
  19,812
  20,918
  22,074
  23,282
  24,545
  25,866
  27,249
  28,695
  30,210
  31,797
  33,459
  35,200
  37,024
  38,936
Total equity, $m
  3,557
  3,847
  4,148
  4,461
  4,787
  5,125
  5,476
  5,842
  6,222
  6,618
  7,029
  7,458
  7,904
  8,370
  8,856
  9,362
  9,891
  10,443
  11,020
  11,623
  12,254
  12,914
  13,604
  14,326
  15,083
  15,875
  16,704
  17,573
  18,484
  19,439
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  10,681
  11,552
  12,456
  13,397
  14,375
  15,390
  16,445
  17,543
  18,685
  19,873
  21,109
  22,396
  23,737
  25,135
  26,594
  28,114
  29,703
  31,361
  33,094
  34,905
  36,799
  38,780
  40,853
  43,021
  45,293
  47,672
  50,163
  52,773
  55,508
  58,375
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.220
  1.280
  1.330
  1.380
  1.420
  1.460
  1.490
  1.530
  1.560
  1.580
  1.610
  1.630
  1.650
  1.670
  1.690
  1.710
  1.720
  1.740
  1.750
  1.760
  1.780
  1.790
  1.800
  1.810
  1.820
  1.830
  1.840
  1.840
  1.850
  1.860
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  781
  873
  969
  1,068
  1,170
  1,277
  1,389
  1,504
  1,624
  1,750
  2,344
  2,480
  2,621
  2,768
  2,922
  3,082
  3,250
  3,425
  3,607
  3,798
  3,998
  4,207
  4,426
  4,655
  4,894
  5,145
  5,408
  5,683
  5,972
  6,274
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  785
  797
  809
  823
  836
  850
  865
  880
  896
  913
  294
  312
  330
  350
  370
  391
  413
  437
  461
  486
  512
  540
  569
  599
  631
  664
  698
  735
  773
  813
Funds from operations, $m
  1,566
  1,670
  1,778
  1,890
  2,007
  2,128
  2,254
  2,385
  2,521
  2,662
  2,638
  2,792
  2,952
  3,118
  3,292
  3,474
  3,663
  3,861
  4,068
  4,284
  4,510
  4,747
  4,994
  5,253
  5,525
  5,809
  6,106
  6,418
  6,745
  7,087
Change in working capital, $m
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  108
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
Cash from operations, $m
  1,526
  1,629
  1,735
  1,845
  1,960
  2,079
  2,203
  2,332
  2,466
  2,606
  2,579
  2,730
  2,888
  3,052
  3,223
  3,401
  3,588
  3,782
  3,985
  4,198
  4,420
  4,652
  4,895
  5,150
  5,416
  5,695
  5,987
  6,293
  6,614
  6,950
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -137
  -149
  -161
  -173
  -186
  -200
  -214
  -229
  -244
  -260
  -277
  -294
  -312
  -330
  -350
  -370
  -391
  -413
  -437
  -461
  -486
  -512
  -540
  -569
  -599
  -631
  -664
  -698
  -735
  -773
New CAPEX, $m
  -351
  -364
  -378
  -393
  -408
  -424
  -441
  -458
  -477
  -496
  -516
  -538
  -560
  -584
  -609
  -635
  -663
  -693
  -724
  -756
  -791
  -827
  -866
  -906
  -948
  -993
  -1,040
  -1,090
  -1,142
  -1,197
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -488
  -513
  -539
  -566
  -594
  -624
  -655
  -687
  -721
  -756
  -793
  -832
  -872
  -914
  -959
  -1,005
  -1,054
  -1,106
  -1,161
  -1,217
  -1,277
  -1,339
  -1,406
  -1,475
  -1,547
  -1,624
  -1,704
  -1,788
  -1,877
  -1,970
Free cash flow, $m
  1,038
  1,116
  1,196
  1,279
  1,365
  1,455
  1,548
  1,645
  1,745
  1,850
  1,786
  1,899
  2,016
  2,137
  2,264
  2,396
  2,533
  2,676
  2,825
  2,981
  3,143
  3,313
  3,490
  3,675
  3,869
  4,071
  4,283
  4,505
  4,737
  4,980
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  551
  581
  604
  627
  652
  678
  704
  732
  761
  792
  825
  859
  895
  932
  972
  1,015
  1,059
  1,106
  1,156
  1,208
  1,263
  1,321
  1,382
  1,447
  1,515
  1,586
  1,662
  1,741
  1,824
  1,912
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  551
  581
  604
  627
  652
  678
  704
  732
  761
  792
  825
  859
  895
  932
  972
  1,015
  1,059
  1,106
  1,156
  1,208
  1,263
  1,321
  1,382
  1,447
  1,515
  1,586
  1,662
  1,741
  1,824
  1,912
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,589
  1,697
  1,800
  1,906
  2,017
  2,133
  2,252
  2,377
  2,507
  2,642
  2,611
  2,757
  2,910
  3,070
  3,236
  3,410
  3,592
  3,782
  3,981
  4,189
  4,406
  4,634
  4,872
  5,122
  5,384
  5,658
  5,945
  6,246
  6,562
  6,892
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -279
  -290
  -301
  -313
  -326
  -338
  -352
  -366
  -380
  -395
  -412
  -429
  -447
  -466
  -486
  -507
  -529
  -552
  -577
  -603
  -631
  -660
  -690
  -722
  -756
  -792
  -830
  -869
  -911
  -955
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,311
  1,407
  1,498
  1,593
  1,692
  1,794
  1,901
  2,011
  2,127
  2,246
  2,199
  2,329
  2,464
  2,604
  2,751
  2,904
  3,063
  3,230
  3,404
  3,586
  3,776
  3,974
  4,182
  4,400
  4,627
  4,866
  5,115
  5,377
  5,651
  5,938
Discount rate, %
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,219
  1,209
  1,181
  1,142
  1,094
  1,037
  972
  901
  826
  747
  619
  547
  477
  409
  345
  286
  233
  186
  145
  111
  84
  61
  44
  30
  21
  14
  9
  5
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Harris Corporation is a technology company that provides products, systems and services that have defense and civil government applications, as well as commercial applications. It offers its products and services to government and commercial customer. It operates in four segments: Communication Systems, which serves markets in tactical communications and defense, and public safety networks; Space and Intelligence Systems, which provides complete Earth observation, environmental, geospatial, space protection, and intelligence solutions from advanced sensors and payloads, as well as ground processing and information analytics; Electronic Systems, which offers a portfolio of solutions in electronic warfare, avionics, wireless and technology, among others, and Critical Networks, which provides managed services supporting air traffic management, energy and maritime communications, and ground network operation and sustainment, as well as information technology (IT) and engineering services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Harris Corporation (HRS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 40.9
Price to Sales 3.8
Price to Book 7.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 39.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 50.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -21.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -10.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 116%
Total Debt to Equity 137.6%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Return On Total Capital 7.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Return On Equity 18.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.4%
EBITDA Margin 23.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.6%
Operating Margin 18.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Net Profit Margin 9.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Effective Tax Rate 29.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.3%
Payout Ratio 47.4%

HRS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HRS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6182 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Harris Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Harris Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HRS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for HRS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Harris Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Harris Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HRS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HRS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Harris Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Harris Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HRS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HRS are equal to 66.5%.

Life of production assets of 46.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Harris Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HRS is equal to 7.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3278 million for Harris Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 117.936 million for Harris Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Harris Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $22.3 billion.

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