Intrinsic value of Harsco - HSC

Previous Close

$19.45

  Intrinsic Value

$5.75

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-70%

Previous close

$19.45

 
Intrinsic value

$5.75

 
Up/down potential

-70%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HSC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -15.79
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.76
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
Revenue, $m
  1,451
  1,518
  1,588
  1,662
  1,741
  1,823
  1,910
  2,001
  2,098
  2,199
  2,306
  2,418
  2,535
  2,659
  2,790
  2,927
  3,070
  3,222
  3,381
  3,548
  3,723
  3,907
  4,101
  4,305
  4,518
  4,743
  4,978
  5,226
  5,486
  5,759
  6,046
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,181
  1,234
  1,289
  1,348
  1,410
  1,476
  1,545
  1,617
  1,693
  1,774
  1,820
  1,908
  2,002
  2,100
  2,203
  2,311
  2,425
  2,545
  2,670
  2,802
  2,941
  3,087
  3,240
  3,401
  3,570
  3,747
  3,934
  4,129
  4,335
  4,551
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  306
  314
  322
  330
  338
  347
  355
  364
  373
  383
  392
  402
  412
  422
  433
  444
  455
  466
  478
  490
  502
  515
  528
  541
  554
  568
  582
  597
  612
  627
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,423
  1,487
  1,548
  1,611
  1,678
  1,748
  1,823
  1,900
  1,981
  2,066
  2,157
  2,212
  2,310
  2,414
  2,522
  2,636
  2,755
  2,880
  3,011
  3,148
  3,292
  3,443
  3,602
  3,768
  3,942
  4,124
  4,315
  4,516
  4,726
  4,947
  5,178
Operating income, $m
  28
  31
  40
  51
  62
  74
  87
  101
  116
  132
  149
  206
  225
  246
  267
  291
  316
  342
  370
  399
  431
  464
  500
  537
  577
  619
  663
  710
  760
  813
  868
EBITDA, $m
  169
  157
  171
  186
  202
  219
  237
  256
  277
  299
  322
  346
  373
  400
  430
  461
  494
  529
  567
  606
  648
  692
  738
  788
  840
  895
  953
  1,015
  1,079
  1,148
  1,220
Interest expense (income), $m
  50
  40
  38
  42
  47
  51
  56
  61
  67
  73
  79
  85
  92
  99
  106
  114
  122
  131
  140
  150
  160
  170
  181
  193
  205
  218
  231
  245
  260
  276
  292
Earnings before tax, $m
  -79
  -10
  2
  9
  16
  23
  31
  40
  49
  60
  70
  120
  133
  147
  161
  177
  193
  211
  230
  250
  271
  294
  318
  344
  372
  401
  432
  465
  500
  537
  576
Tax expense, $m
  7
  0
  1
  2
  4
  6
  8
  11
  13
  16
  19
  33
  36
  40
  43
  48
  52
  57
  62
  67
  73
  79
  86
  93
  100
  108
  117
  126
  135
  145
  156
Net income, $m
  -86
  -10
  2
  6
  11
  17
  23
  29
  36
  43
  51
  88
  97
  107
  118
  129
  141
  154
  168
  182
  198
  215
  232
  251
  271
  293
  315
  339
  365
  392
  421

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  72
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,581
  1,578
  1,651
  1,728
  1,809
  1,895
  1,985
  2,081
  2,181
  2,286
  2,397
  2,513
  2,636
  2,764
  2,900
  3,042
  3,192
  3,349
  3,514
  3,688
  3,870
  4,062
  4,263
  4,475
  4,697
  4,930
  5,175
  5,433
  5,703
  5,987
  6,285
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,509
  1,578
  1,651
  1,728
  1,809
  1,895
  1,985
  2,081
  2,181
  2,286
  2,397
  2,513
  2,636
  2,764
  2,900
  3,042
  3,192
  3,349
  3,514
  3,688
  3,870
  4,062
  4,263
  4,475
  4,697
  4,930
  5,175
  5,433
  5,703
  5,987
  6,285
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
Average production assets, $m
  575
  601
  629
  658
  689
  722
  756
  793
  831
  871
  913
  957
  1,004
  1,053
  1,105
  1,159
  1,216
  1,276
  1,339
  1,405
  1,474
  1,547
  1,624
  1,705
  1,789
  1,878
  1,971
  2,070
  2,173
  2,281
  2,394
Working capital, $m
  122
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
  205
  215
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
  287
  302
  317
  333
Total debt, $m
  659
  594
  660
  729
  803
  880
  961
  1,046
  1,137
  1,231
  1,331
  1,436
  1,546
  1,662
  1,784
  1,912
  2,047
  2,188
  2,337
  2,493
  2,657
  2,830
  3,011
  3,201
  3,401
  3,611
  3,832
  4,063
  4,307
  4,562
  4,831
Total liabilities, $m
  1,485
  1,420
  1,486
  1,555
  1,629
  1,706
  1,787
  1,872
  1,963
  2,057
  2,157
  2,262
  2,372
  2,488
  2,610
  2,738
  2,873
  3,014
  3,163
  3,319
  3,483
  3,656
  3,837
  4,027
  4,227
  4,437
  4,658
  4,889
  5,133
  5,388
  5,657
Total equity, $m
  96
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  218
  229
  240
  251
  264
  276
  290
  304
  319
  335
  351
  369
  387
  406
  426
  447
  470
  493
  518
  543
  570
  599
  629
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,581
  1,578
  1,651
  1,728
  1,810
  1,896
  1,986
  2,080
  2,181
  2,286
  2,397
  2,513
  2,636
  2,764
  2,900
  3,042
  3,192
  3,349
  3,514
  3,688
  3,870
  4,062
  4,263
  4,474
  4,697
  4,930
  5,176
  5,432
  5,703
  5,987
  6,286
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.865
  3.760
  4.000
  4.220
  4.440
  4.640
  4.840
  5.030
  5.210
  5.390
  5.550
  5.710
  5.870
  6.010
  6.150
  6.280
  6.410
  6.530
  6.650
  6.760
  6.870
  6.970
  7.060
  7.150
  7.240
  7.320
  7.400
  7.480
  7.550
  7.620
  7.690
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.019
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -86
  -10
  2
  6
  11
  17
  23
  29
  36
  43
  51
  88
  97
  107
  118
  129
  141
  154
  168
  182
  198
  215
  232
  251
  271
  293
  315
  339
  365
  392
  421
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  141
  127
  131
  135
  140
  144
  149
  155
  160
  166
  172
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  179
  188
  197
  207
  217
  228
  239
  251
  263
  276
  290
  304
  319
  335
  352
Funds from operations, $m
  175
  117
  132
  141
  151
  161
  172
  184
  196
  210
  224
  229
  245
  262
  280
  299
  320
  342
  365
  389
  415
  442
  471
  502
  535
  569
  605
  644
  684
  727
  773
Change in working capital, $m
  15
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
Cash from operations, $m
  160
  113
  129
  137
  147
  157
  167
  179
  191
  204
  218
  223
  238
  255
  273
  292
  312
  333
  356
  380
  405
  432
  461
  491
  523
  557
  592
  630
  670
  712
  757
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -276
  -290
  -304
  -319
  -335
New CAPEX, $m
  -69
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
Cash from investing activities, $m
  123
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -216
  -227
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -276
  -290
  -305
  -320
  -336
  -352
  -369
  -388
  -407
  -427
  -449
Free cash flow, $m
  283
  2
  12
  15
  19
  23
  27
  31
  36
  42
  48
  44
  51
  58
  66
  75
  84
  95
  105
  117
  129
  142
  156
  171
  187
  205
  223
  242
  263
  285
  308
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -261
  -35
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  141
  149
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  200
  210
  221
  232
  243
  256
  268
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  113
  6
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -288
  78
  72
  70
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  141
  149
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  200
  210
  221
  232
  243
  256
  268
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -4
  81
  84
  86
  92
  100
  108
  117
  126
  137
  147
  149
  161
  174
  188
  203
  219
  236
  254
  273
  293
  315
  338
  362
  387
  415
  443
  474
  506
  540
  576
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  176
  -113
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  42
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  9
  76
  79
  84
  91
  99
  107
  116
  126
  136
  137
  149
  161
  175
  189
  204
  220
  237
  256
  275
  296
  317
  341
  365
  391
  419
  448
  479
  512
  547
Discount rate, %
 
  10.10
  10.61
  11.14
  11.69
  12.28
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.67
  16.45
  17.27
  18.14
  19.05
  20.00
  21.00
  22.05
  23.15
  24.31
  25.52
  26.80
  28.14
  29.55
  31.02
  32.57
  34.20
  35.91
  37.71
  39.59
  41.57
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  8
  62
  57
  54
  51
  48
  44
  40
  36
  32
  26
  22
  18
  15
  12
  10
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  82.7
  82.4
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3

Harsco Corporation is a provider of industrial services and engineered products. The Company operates in three segments: Harsco Metals & Minerals, Harsco Industrial and Harsco Rail. The Harsco Metals & Minerals segment provides outsourced on-site services to the global metals industry, with the operations focused in the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Brazil. The Harsco Industrial segment includes manufacturing businesses: the Harsco Industrial IKG, Harsco Industrial Air-X-Changers and Harsco Industrial Patterson-Kelley. The Harsco Rail segment is a provider of equipment, after-market parts and services for the maintenance, repair and construction of railway track. The Company's principal lines of business include outsourced, on-site services of material logistics and resource recovery for iron, steel and metals manufacturing, as well as environmental solutions for industrial co-products, and railway track maintenance services and equipment.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Harsco (HSC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -18.1
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 16.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -15.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -44.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 655.2%
Total Debt to Equity 686.5%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Return On Total Capital -8.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.4%
Return On Equity -46.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.6%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 19.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.4%
EBITDA Margin 7.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Operating Margin 1.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -5.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Net Profit Margin -5.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.2%
Effective Tax Rate -8.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 95.1%
Payout Ratio -4.7%

HSC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HSC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1451 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Harsco. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Harsco. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HSC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.1%, whose default value for HSC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Harsco, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Harsco.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HSC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $299 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HSC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.4% for Harsco.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Harsco. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HSC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HSC are equal to 39.6%.

Life of production assets of 6.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Harsco operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HSC is equal to 5.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $96 million for Harsco - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 80.429 million for Harsco is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Harsco at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ DMC Global (BOOM) Jumps: Stock Rises 6.8%   [Dec-28-17 08:32AM  Zacks]
▶ Mario Longhi Joins Harsco Corporations Board of Directors   [Nov-08-17 07:54AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Harsco posts 3Q profit   [07:27AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harsco Corp. : November 6, 2017   [Nov-06-17 11:47AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harsco Corp. : October 16, 2017   [Oct-16-17 09:54AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harsco Corp. : October 5, 2017   [Oct-05-17 11:05AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Argus Upgrades Harsco, Sees 18% Upside From Here   [Sep-15-17 09:55AM  Benzinga]
▶ Harsco Corp. Value Analysis (NYSE:HSC) : August 5, 2017   [Aug-04-17 08:52PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Harsco posts 2Q profit   [12:53AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harsco Corp. : June 13, 2017   [Jun-13-17 12:37PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 10 things you need to know before the opening bell   [Jun-07-17 06:38AM  Business Insider]
▶ Harscos Metals & Minerals Division Lands Global Slag Award   [Jun-06-17 03:31PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harsco Corp. : May 31, 2017   [May-31-17 12:36PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harsco Corp. : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 04:42PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Harsco beats 1Q profit forecasts   [07:30AM  Associated Press]
▶ Harsco Corp. Value Analysis (NYSE:HSC) : April 27, 2017   [Apr-27-17 04:53PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harsco Corp. : April 20, 2017   [Apr-20-17 02:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ IIROC Trading Halt - HSC   [Mar-06-17 09:16AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Harsco reports 4Q loss   [07:56AM  Associated Press]
▶ 10 things you need to know today   [Feb-21-17 06:34AM  Business Insider]
Financial statements of HSC
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