Intrinsic value of Harsco - HSC

Previous Close

$29.75

  Intrinsic Value

$42.84

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+44%

Previous close

$29.75

 
Intrinsic value

$42.84

 
Up/down potential

+44%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of HSC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.40
  8.96
  8.56
  8.21
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
Revenue, $m
  1,758
  1,916
  2,080
  2,250
  2,428
  2,612
  2,804
  3,003
  3,210
  3,426
  3,649
  3,882
  4,125
  4,377
  4,640
  4,914
  5,200
  5,498
  5,809
  6,134
  6,474
  6,828
  7,199
  7,587
  7,993
  8,418
  8,863
  9,329
  9,817
  10,328
Variable operating expenses, $m
  859
  932
  1,008
  1,087
  1,170
  1,255
  1,344
  1,436
  1,532
  1,632
  1,692
  1,800
  1,912
  2,029
  2,151
  2,278
  2,411
  2,549
  2,693
  2,844
  3,001
  3,166
  3,338
  3,518
  3,706
  3,903
  4,109
  4,325
  4,551
  4,788
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  705
  721
  737
  753
  769
  786
  804
  821
  839
  858
  877
  896
  916
  936
  956
  977
  999
  1,021
  1,043
  1,066
  1,090
  1,114
  1,138
  1,163
  1,189
  1,215
  1,242
  1,269
  1,297
  1,325
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,564
  1,653
  1,745
  1,840
  1,939
  2,041
  2,148
  2,257
  2,371
  2,490
  2,569
  2,696
  2,828
  2,965
  3,107
  3,255
  3,410
  3,570
  3,736
  3,910
  4,091
  4,280
  4,476
  4,681
  4,895
  5,118
  5,351
  5,594
  5,848
  6,113
Operating income, $m
  194
  263
  335
  410
  489
  571
  657
  746
  839
  936
  1,081
  1,186
  1,297
  1,412
  1,532
  1,658
  1,790
  1,928
  2,073
  2,224
  2,383
  2,549
  2,723
  2,906
  3,099
  3,300
  3,512
  3,735
  3,969
  4,214
EBITDA, $m
  346
  424
  507
  593
  682
  775
  873
  974
  1,080
  1,190
  1,305
  1,425
  1,550
  1,681
  1,817
  1,960
  2,109
  2,266
  2,429
  2,601
  2,780
  2,968
  3,165
  3,372
  3,590
  3,817
  4,057
  4,308
  4,571
  4,849
Interest expense (income), $m
  50
  45
  55
  65
  76
  87
  99
  112
  124
  138
  151
  166
  181
  196
  212
  229
  247
  265
  284
  304
  324
  346
  369
  392
  417
  443
  470
  498
  528
  559
  591
Earnings before tax, $m
  149
  208
  270
  334
  402
  472
  545
  621
  701
  784
  915
  1,006
  1,101
  1,200
  1,303
  1,412
  1,525
  1,644
  1,769
  1,899
  2,036
  2,180
  2,331
  2,490
  2,656
  2,831
  3,014
  3,207
  3,410
  3,623
Tax expense, $m
  40
  56
  73
  90
  108
  127
  147
  168
  189
  212
  247
  272
  297
  324
  352
  381
  412
  444
  478
  513
  550
  589
  629
  672
  717
  764
  814
  866
  921
  978
Net income, $m
  109
  152
  197
  244
  293
  344
  398
  454
  512
  573
  668
  734
  803
  876
  951
  1,031
  1,113
  1,200
  1,291
  1,387
  1,487
  1,592
  1,702
  1,817
  1,939
  2,066
  2,200
  2,341
  2,489
  2,645

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,727
  1,882
  2,043
  2,211
  2,385
  2,566
  2,754
  2,950
  3,154
  3,365
  3,585
  3,814
  4,052
  4,300
  4,558
  4,827
  5,108
  5,401
  5,706
  6,026
  6,359
  6,708
  7,072
  7,453
  7,852
  8,269
  8,706
  9,164
  9,643
  10,146
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,727
  1,882
  2,043
  2,211
  2,385
  2,566
  2,754
  2,950
  3,154
  3,365
  3,585
  3,814
  4,052
  4,300
  4,558
  4,827
  5,108
  5,401
  5,706
  6,026
  6,359
  6,708
  7,072
  7,453
  7,852
  8,269
  8,706
  9,164
  9,643
  10,146
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
  1.018
Average production assets, $m
  767
  835
  907
  981
  1,059
  1,139
  1,223
  1,309
  1,400
  1,494
  1,591
  1,693
  1,798
  1,908
  2,023
  2,142
  2,267
  2,397
  2,533
  2,674
  2,822
  2,977
  3,139
  3,308
  3,485
  3,670
  3,864
  4,067
  4,280
  4,503
Working capital, $m
  79
  86
  94
  101
  109
  118
  126
  135
  144
  154
  164
  175
  186
  197
  209
  221
  234
  247
  261
  276
  291
  307
  324
  341
  360
  379
  399
  420
  442
  465
Total debt, $m
  719
  857
  1,001
  1,150
  1,306
  1,467
  1,635
  1,810
  1,991
  2,180
  2,376
  2,580
  2,793
  3,014
  3,244
  3,484
  3,734
  3,996
  4,268
  4,553
  4,851
  5,162
  5,487
  5,827
  6,182
  6,555
  6,945
  7,353
  7,780
  8,228
Total liabilities, $m
  1,541
  1,679
  1,822
  1,972
  2,127
  2,289
  2,457
  2,632
  2,813
  3,002
  3,198
  3,402
  3,614
  3,835
  4,066
  4,306
  4,556
  4,817
  5,090
  5,375
  5,672
  5,983
  6,308
  6,648
  7,004
  7,376
  7,766
  8,174
  8,602
  9,050
Total equity, $m
  187
  203
  221
  239
  258
  277
  297
  319
  341
  363
  387
  412
  438
  464
  492
  521
  552
  583
  616
  651
  687
  724
  764
  805
  848
  893
  940
  990
  1,041
  1,096
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,728
  1,882
  2,043
  2,211
  2,385
  2,566
  2,754
  2,951
  3,154
  3,365
  3,585
  3,814
  4,052
  4,299
  4,558
  4,827
  5,108
  5,400
  5,706
  6,026
  6,359
  6,707
  7,072
  7,453
  7,852
  8,269
  8,706
  9,164
  9,643
  10,146
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.850
  4.220
  4.540
  4.820
  5.070
  5.290
  5.500
  5.680
  5.850
  6.000
  6.140
  6.260
  6.380
  6.490
  6.590
  6.680
  6.770
  6.850
  6.930
  7.000
  7.060
  7.130
  7.180
  7.240
  7.290
  7.340
  7.390
  7.430
  7.470
  7.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  109
  152
  197
  244
  293
  344
  398
  454
  512
  573
  668
  734
  803
  876
  951
  1,031
  1,113
  1,200
  1,291
  1,387
  1,487
  1,592
  1,702
  1,817
  1,939
  2,066
  2,200
  2,341
  2,489
  2,645
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  152
  162
  172
  182
  193
  204
  216
  228
  241
  254
  224
  238
  253
  269
  285
  302
  319
  338
  357
  377
  398
  419
  442
  466
  491
  517
  544
  573
  603
  634
Funds from operations, $m
  261
  314
  369
  426
  486
  549
  614
  682
  753
  827
  892
  973
  1,057
  1,145
  1,236
  1,332
  1,433
  1,538
  1,648
  1,763
  1,884
  2,011
  2,144
  2,283
  2,430
  2,583
  2,745
  2,914
  3,092
  3,279
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Cash from operations, $m
  254
  307
  361
  419
  478
  540
  605
  673
  744
  817
  882
  962
  1,046
  1,133
  1,225
  1,320
  1,420
  1,524
  1,634
  1,749
  1,869
  1,995
  2,127
  2,266
  2,411
  2,564
  2,725
  2,893
  3,070
  3,256
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -99
  -108
  -118
  -128
  -138
  -149
  -160
  -172
  -184
  -197
  -210
  -224
  -238
  -253
  -269
  -285
  -302
  -319
  -338
  -357
  -377
  -398
  -419
  -442
  -466
  -491
  -517
  -544
  -573
  -603
New CAPEX, $m
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -223
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -165
  -177
  -190
  -202
  -215
  -229
  -244
  -259
  -274
  -291
  -308
  -326
  -344
  -363
  -384
  -404
  -427
  -449
  -474
  -499
  -525
  -553
  -581
  -611
  -643
  -676
  -711
  -747
  -786
  -826
Free cash flow, $m
  90
  130
  172
  216
  263
  311
  361
  414
  469
  526
  574
  637
  702
  770
  841
  916
  994
  1,075
  1,161
  1,250
  1,344
  1,443
  1,546
  1,655
  1,768
  1,888
  2,014
  2,146
  2,284
  2,430
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  132
  138
  144
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  181
  189
  196
  204
  212
  221
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  297
  311
  325
  340
  356
  372
  390
  408
  428
  448
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  132
  138
  144
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  181
  189
  196
  204
  212
  221
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  297
  311
  325
  340
  356
  372
  390
  408
  428
  448
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  222
  268
  316
  366
  418
  473
  529
  589
  650
  715
  770
  841
  914
  991
  1,072
  1,156
  1,244
  1,336
  1,433
  1,535
  1,642
  1,754
  1,871
  1,995
  2,124
  2,260
  2,403
  2,554
  2,712
  2,878
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  206
  251
  298
  348
  399
  453
  509
  567
  628
  692
  747
  816
  888
  964
  1,044
  1,127
  1,214
  1,305
  1,400
  1,501
  1,606
  1,716
  1,832
  1,953
  2,081
  2,215
  2,356
  2,504
  2,660
  2,824
Discount rate, %
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.85
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.19
  13.85
  14.55
  15.27
  16.04
  16.84
  17.68
  18.57
  19.49
  20.47
  21.49
  22.57
  23.69
  24.88
  26.12
  27.43
  28.80
  30.24
  31.75
  33.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  191
  213
  231
  243
  250
  251
  247
  239
  227
  212
  191
  172
  152
  132
  112
  93
  76
  61
  47
  36
  27
  20
  14
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Harsco Corporation is a provider of industrial services and engineered products. The Company operates in three segments: Harsco Metals & Minerals, Harsco Industrial and Harsco Rail. The Harsco Metals & Minerals segment provides outsourced on-site services to the global metals industry, with the operations focused in the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Brazil. The Harsco Industrial segment includes manufacturing businesses: the Harsco Industrial IKG, Harsco Industrial Air-X-Changers and Harsco Industrial Patterson-Kelley. The Harsco Rail segment is a provider of equipment, after-market parts and services for the maintenance, repair and construction of railway track. The Company's principal lines of business include outsourced, on-site services of material logistics and resource recovery for iron, steel and metals manufacturing, as well as environmental solutions for industrial co-products, and railway track maintenance services and equipment.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Harsco (HSC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -27.7
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 24.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -15.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -44.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 655.2%
Total Debt to Equity 686.5%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Return On Total Capital -8.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.4%
Return On Equity -46.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.6%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 19.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.4%
EBITDA Margin 7.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Operating Margin 1.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -5.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Net Profit Margin -5.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.2%
Effective Tax Rate -8.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 95.1%
Payout Ratio -4.7%

HSC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HSC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1607.062 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Harsco. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Harsco. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HSC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.1%, whose default value for HSC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Harsco, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Harsco.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HSC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 49.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $690 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HSC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.6% for Harsco.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Harsco. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HSC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HSC are equal to 43.6%.

Life of production assets of 7.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Harsco operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HSC is equal to 4.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $170.451 million for Harsco - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 80.846 million for Harsco is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Harsco at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Harsco: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-02-18 11:47AM  Associated Press]
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▶ Why Harsco Corporations Stock Is Rallying Today   [May-02-18 01:10PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Harsco: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [09:27AM  Associated Press]
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