Intrinsic value of Henry Schein - HSIC

Previous Close

$75.96

  Intrinsic Value

$85.93

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+13%

Previous close

$75.96

 
Intrinsic value

$85.93

 
Up/down potential

+13%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HSIC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.86
  10.30
  9.77
  9.29
  8.86
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.53
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.80
  5.72
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
Revenue, $m
  11,572
  12,764
  14,011
  15,313
  16,670
  18,083
  19,554
  21,082
  22,671
  24,321
  26,037
  27,820
  29,673
  31,601
  33,607
  35,695
  37,869
  40,135
  42,496
  44,959
  47,529
  50,211
  53,013
  55,941
  59,000
  62,200
  65,546
  69,048
  72,713
  76,551
  80,569
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  11,862
  13,002
  14,191
  15,431
  16,722
  18,065
  19,461
  20,913
  22,421
  23,988
  25,415
  27,108
  28,869
  30,702
  32,609
  34,595
  36,665
  38,822
  41,072
  43,420
  45,870
  48,430
  51,104
  53,899
  56,822
  59,880
  63,079
  66,427
  69,932
  73,604
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  10,800
  11,862
  13,002
  14,191
  15,431
  16,722
  18,065
  19,461
  20,913
  22,421
  23,988
  25,415
  27,108
  28,869
  30,702
  32,609
  34,595
  36,665
  38,822
  41,072
  43,420
  45,870
  48,430
  51,104
  53,899
  56,822
  59,880
  63,079
  66,427
  69,932
  73,604
Operating income, $m
  772
  902
  1,009
  1,122
  1,239
  1,361
  1,489
  1,621
  1,758
  1,901
  2,049
  2,405
  2,565
  2,732
  2,906
  3,086
  3,274
  3,470
  3,674
  3,887
  4,109
  4,341
  4,583
  4,836
  5,101
  5,378
  5,667
  5,970
  6,287
  6,618
  6,966
EBITDA, $m
  942
  1,164
  1,278
  1,396
  1,520
  1,649
  1,783
  1,923
  2,067
  2,218
  2,374
  2,537
  2,706
  2,882
  3,065
  3,255
  3,453
  3,660
  3,875
  4,100
  4,334
  4,579
  4,834
  5,101
  5,380
  5,672
  5,977
  6,297
  6,631
  6,981
  7,347
Interest expense (income), $m
  29
  40
  54
  69
  84
  100
  117
  134
  152
  171
  190
  210
  231
  253
  275
  299
  323
  349
  375
  403
  432
  462
  493
  526
  561
  596
  634
  673
  714
  757
  802
Earnings before tax, $m
  756
  861
  955
  1,053
  1,155
  1,261
  1,372
  1,487
  1,606
  1,730
  1,859
  2,195
  2,335
  2,479
  2,630
  2,787
  2,951
  3,121
  3,299
  3,484
  3,677
  3,879
  4,090
  4,310
  4,540
  4,781
  5,033
  5,297
  5,572
  5,861
  6,164
Tax expense, $m
  218
  232
  258
  284
  312
  341
  370
  401
  434
  467
  502
  593
  630
  669
  710
  753
  797
  843
  891
  941
  993
  1,047
  1,104
  1,164
  1,226
  1,291
  1,359
  1,430
  1,505
  1,583
  1,664
Net income, $m
  507
  629
  697
  769
  843
  921
  1,001
  1,085
  1,172
  1,263
  1,357
  1,602
  1,704
  1,810
  1,920
  2,035
  2,154
  2,278
  2,408
  2,543
  2,684
  2,832
  2,986
  3,146
  3,314
  3,490
  3,674
  3,866
  4,068
  4,279
  4,499

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  62
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,730
  7,357
  8,075
  8,826
  9,608
  10,423
  11,270
  12,151
  13,067
  14,018
  15,007
  16,034
  17,103
  18,214
  19,370
  20,573
  21,827
  23,132
  24,493
  25,913
  27,394
  28,940
  30,555
  32,242
  34,006
  35,850
  37,779
  39,797
  41,910
  44,121
  46,438
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,668
  7,357
  8,075
  8,826
  9,608
  10,423
  11,270
  12,151
  13,067
  14,018
  15,007
  16,034
  17,103
  18,214
  19,370
  20,573
  21,827
  23,132
  24,493
  25,913
  27,394
  28,940
  30,555
  32,242
  34,006
  35,850
  37,779
  39,797
  41,910
  44,121
  46,438
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
Average production assets, $m
  936
  1,034
  1,135
  1,240
  1,350
  1,465
  1,584
  1,708
  1,836
  1,970
  2,109
  2,253
  2,404
  2,560
  2,722
  2,891
  3,067
  3,251
  3,442
  3,642
  3,850
  4,067
  4,294
  4,531
  4,779
  5,038
  5,309
  5,593
  5,890
  6,201
  6,526
Working capital, $m
  1,022
  1,608
  1,765
  1,929
  2,100
  2,279
  2,464
  2,656
  2,856
  3,064
  3,281
  3,505
  3,739
  3,982
  4,234
  4,498
  4,772
  5,057
  5,354
  5,665
  5,989
  6,327
  6,680
  7,049
  7,434
  7,837
  8,259
  8,700
  9,162
  9,645
  10,152
Total debt, $m
  1,219
  1,556
  1,974
  2,410
  2,864
  3,338
  3,830
  4,342
  4,874
  5,426
  6,001
  6,598
  7,219
  7,864
  8,536
  9,235
  9,963
  10,722
  11,513
  12,337
  13,198
  14,096
  15,035
  16,015
  17,039
  18,111
  19,232
  20,404
  21,632
  22,917
  24,262
Total liabilities, $m
  3,937
  4,274
  4,692
  5,128
  5,582
  6,056
  6,548
  7,060
  7,592
  8,144
  8,719
  9,316
  9,937
  10,582
  11,254
  11,953
  12,681
  13,440
  14,231
  15,055
  15,916
  16,814
  17,753
  18,733
  19,757
  20,829
  21,950
  23,122
  24,350
  25,635
  26,980
Total equity, $m
  2,793
  3,082
  3,384
  3,698
  4,026
  4,367
  4,722
  5,091
  5,475
  5,874
  6,288
  6,718
  7,166
  7,632
  8,116
  8,620
  9,145
  9,692
  10,263
  10,858
  11,478
  12,126
  12,803
  13,510
  14,248
  15,021
  15,829
  16,675
  17,560
  18,487
  19,457
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,730
  7,356
  8,076
  8,826
  9,608
  10,423
  11,270
  12,151
  13,067
  14,018
  15,007
  16,034
  17,103
  18,214
  19,370
  20,573
  21,826
  23,132
  24,494
  25,913
  27,394
  28,940
  30,556
  32,243
  34,005
  35,850
  37,779
  39,797
  41,910
  44,122
  46,437
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.436
  0.500
  0.580
  0.650
  0.710
  0.760
  0.810
  0.850
  0.890
  0.920
  0.950
  0.980
  1.010
  1.030
  1.050
  1.070
  1.090
  1.110
  1.120
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  507
  629
  697
  769
  843
  921
  1,001
  1,085
  1,172
  1,263
  1,357
  1,602
  1,704
  1,810
  1,920
  2,035
  2,154
  2,278
  2,408
  2,543
  2,684
  2,832
  2,986
  3,146
  3,314
  3,490
  3,674
  3,866
  4,068
  4,279
  4,499
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  170
  262
  268
  275
  281
  288
  295
  302
  309
  317
  325
  132
  141
  150
  159
  169
  179
  190
  201
  213
  225
  238
  251
  265
  279
  295
  310
  327
  344
  363
  382
Funds from operations, $m
  460
  891
  965
  1,043
  1,124
  1,208
  1,296
  1,387
  1,482
  1,580
  1,682
  1,734
  1,845
  1,960
  2,079
  2,204
  2,333
  2,469
  2,609
  2,756
  2,910
  3,070
  3,237
  3,411
  3,594
  3,785
  3,985
  4,194
  4,412
  4,641
  4,881
Change in working capital, $m
  -155
  150
  157
  164
  171
  178
  185
  193
  200
  208
  216
  225
  234
  243
  253
  263
  274
  285
  298
  310
  324
  338
  353
  369
  386
  403
  422
  441
  462
  484
  506
Cash from operations, $m
  615
  741
  808
  879
  953
  1,030
  1,111
  1,195
  1,282
  1,372
  1,466
  1,510
  1,611
  1,717
  1,827
  1,941
  2,059
  2,183
  2,312
  2,446
  2,586
  2,732
  2,884
  3,043
  3,208
  3,382
  3,563
  3,752
  3,950
  4,158
  4,375
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -55
  -60
  -66
  -73
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -115
  -123
  -132
  -141
  -150
  -159
  -169
  -179
  -190
  -201
  -213
  -225
  -238
  -251
  -265
  -279
  -295
  -310
  -327
  -344
  -363
New CAPEX, $m
  -70
  -98
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -227
  -237
  -248
  -259
  -271
  -284
  -297
  -311
  -326
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -316
  -153
  -161
  -171
  -183
  -193
  -205
  -217
  -229
  -241
  -254
  -267
  -282
  -297
  -312
  -328
  -345
  -362
  -381
  -400
  -421
  -442
  -465
  -488
  -513
  -538
  -566
  -594
  -624
  -655
  -689
Free cash flow, $m
  299
  588
  647
  707
  771
  837
  906
  978
  1,053
  1,131
  1,212
  1,242
  1,329
  1,420
  1,514
  1,612
  1,714
  1,820
  1,930
  2,045
  2,165
  2,289
  2,419
  2,554
  2,696
  2,843
  2,997
  3,158
  3,326
  3,502
  3,687
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  344
  399
  418
  436
  455
  473
  492
  512
  532
  553
  574
  597
  621
  646
  672
  699
  728
  759
  791
  825
  861
  898
  938
  980
  1,025
  1,071
  1,121
  1,173
  1,227
  1,285
  1,346
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -539
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -300
  399
  418
  436
  455
  473
  492
  512
  532
  553
  574
  597
  621
  646
  672
  699
  728
  759
  791
  825
  861
  898
  938
  980
  1,025
  1,071
  1,121
  1,173
  1,227
  1,285
  1,346
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -10
  987
  1,064
  1,143
  1,225
  1,310
  1,398
  1,490
  1,585
  1,684
  1,787
  1,839
  1,950
  2,066
  2,186
  2,312
  2,442
  2,579
  2,721
  2,870
  3,025
  3,188
  3,357
  3,535
  3,720
  3,915
  4,118
  4,331
  4,554
  4,788
  5,032
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  91
  -289
  -301
  -314
  -328
  -341
  -355
  -369
  -384
  -399
  -414
  -431
  -448
  -466
  -484
  -504
  -525
  -547
  -570
  -595
  -621
  -648
  -677
  -707
  -739
  -773
  -808
  -846
  -885
  -927
  -970
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  698
  763
  829
  897
  969
  1,043
  1,121
  1,201
  1,285
  1,372
  1,408
  1,502
  1,600
  1,702
  1,807
  1,917
  2,032
  2,151
  2,275
  2,405
  2,540
  2,681
  2,828
  2,981
  3,142
  3,310
  3,485
  3,669
  3,861
  4,062
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  669
  699
  721
  739
  751
  757
  757
  751
  738
  719
  669
  641
  608
  571
  531
  487
  442
  396
  350
  306
  263
  222
  185
  152
  122
  97
  75
  57
  42
  31
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Henry Schein, Inc. is a provider of healthcare products and services primarily to office-based dental, animal health and medical practitioners. The Company operates through two segments: healthcare distribution, and technology and value-added services. The healthcare distribution segment distributes consumable products, small equipment, laboratory products, large equipment, equipment repair services, branded and generic pharmaceuticals, vaccines, surgical products, diagnostic tests, infection-control products and vitamins. The technology and value-added services segment provides software, technology and other value-added services to healthcare practitioners. Its technology group offerings include practice management software systems for dental and medical practitioners and animal health clinics. The Company provides its services to dental practitioners and laboratories, animal health clinics and physician practices, as well as government and institutional healthcare clinics.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Henry Schein (HSIC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.8
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 4.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 25.6%
Total Debt to Equity 43.6%
Interest Coverage 27
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Total Capital 13.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Return On Equity 17.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.1%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 27.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.1%
EBITDA Margin 8.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Operating Margin 6.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Net Profit Margin 4.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Effective Tax Rate 28.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

HSIC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HSIC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $11572 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Henry Schein. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Henry Schein. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HSIC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HSIC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Henry Schein, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Henry Schein.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HSIC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HSIC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Henry Schein.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Henry Schein. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HSIC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HSIC are equal to 8.1%.

Life of production assets of 17.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Henry Schein operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HSIC is equal to 12.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2793 million for Henry Schein - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 158.414 million for Henry Schein is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Henry Schein at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $12.0 billion.

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▶ Henry Schein To Present At Two Conferences In November   [Oct-26-17 08:05AM  PR Newswire]
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Financial statements of HSIC
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