Intrinsic value of Heska - HSKA

Previous Close

$100.20

  Intrinsic Value

$19.47

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-81%

Previous close

$100.20

 
Intrinsic value

$19.47

 
Up/down potential

-81%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HSKA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  132
  135
  138
  142
  146
  151
  156
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  213
  223
  233
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  305
  319
  334
  350
  367
  385
  404
  423
Variable operating expenses, $m
  115
  118
  120
  124
  127
  131
  136
  141
  146
  151
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  237
  248
  259
  272
  285
  298
  313
  328
  344
  360
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  115
  118
  120
  124
  127
  131
  136
  141
  146
  151
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  237
  248
  259
  272
  285
  298
  313
  328
  344
  360
Operating income, $m
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
EBITDA, $m
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  68
  71
  74
  78
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
Earnings before tax, $m
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
Tax expense, $m
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
Net income, $m
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  138
  141
  145
  149
  153
  158
  164
  170
  176
  183
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  234
  244
  255
  267
  279
  292
  305
  320
  335
  351
  368
  385
  404
  423
  444
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  138
  141
  145
  149
  153
  158
  164
  170
  176
  183
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  234
  244
  255
  267
  279
  292
  305
  320
  335
  351
  368
  385
  404
  423
  444
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.957
  0.957
  0.952
  0.953
  0.954
  0.956
  0.951
  0.953
  0.955
  0.951
  0.953
  0.949
  0.951
  0.949
  0.951
  0.953
  0.955
  0.953
  0.951
  0.953
  0.952
  0.954
  0.953
  0.952
  0.952
  0.951
  0.953
  0.953
  0.955
  0.953
Average production assets, $m
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
Working capital, $m
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
Total debt, $m
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  86
Total liabilities, $m
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
Total equity, $m
  102
  105
  107
  110
  114
  117
  121
  126
  130
  135
  141
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  197
  206
  216
  226
  237
  248
  260
  272
  285
  299
  313
  329
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  138
  142
  145
  149
  154
  158
  164
  170
  176
  183
  190
  197
  206
  215
  224
  234
  244
  255
  266
  278
  292
  305
  320
  335
  351
  368
  385
  404
  423
  444
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.060
  0.070
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
Funds from operations, $m
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -21
Free cash flow, $m
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
Cash available for distribution, $m
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  11
  11
  10
  10
  9
  9
  8
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Heska Corporation sells veterinary diagnostic and specialty products. The Company operates through two segments: Core Companion Animal Health (CCA) and Other Vaccines, Pharmaceuticals and Products (OVP). The CCA segment includes, primarily for canine and feline use, blood testing instruments and supplies, digital imaging products, software and services, local and cloud-based data services, allergy testing and immunotherapy, and single use offerings, such as in-clinic diagnostic tests and heartworm preventive products. Its OVP segment includes private label vaccine and pharmaceutical production for cattle but also for other species, including equine, porcine, avian, feline and canine. All OVP products are sold by third parties under third-party labels. It focuses on supporting veterinarians in canine and feline healthcare space. It offers a line of veterinary blood testing and other instruments. It manufactures biological and pharmaceutical products for other animal health companies.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Heska (HSKA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 64
Price to Sales 5.4
Price to Book 8.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 117.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 234.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 23.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 11
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 1.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Return On Total Capital 14.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Equity 14.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.1%
EBITDA Margin 16.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Operating Margin 12.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Net Profit Margin 8.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Effective Tax Rate 29.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

HSKA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HSKA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $129 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Heska. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Heska. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HSKA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HSKA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Heska, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Heska.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HSKA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HSKA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Heska.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Heska. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HSKA stock is equal to 2.1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HSKA are equal to 35.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Heska operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HSKA is equal to 16.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $100 million for Heska - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 7 million for Heska is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Heska at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Heska (HSKA) Tops Q2 Earnings Estimates   [Aug-07-18 09:45AM  Zacks]
▶ Heska Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [09:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Heska: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:41AM  Associated Press]
▶ Heska Reports Second Quarter Results   [08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ As America's hiring spree continues, these Denver companies are leading the charge   [Jul-16-18 04:35PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for July 9th   [Jul-09-18 07:54AM  Zacks]
▶ Heska: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-04-18 08:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ Heska Reports First Quarter Results   [08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Heska Corporation Announces Board Action   [May-02-18 03:34PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Heska reports 4Q loss   [Feb-28-18 09:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Heska Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [08:50AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Heska Corp. : November 27, 2017   [Nov-27-17 02:09PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Mariko Gordon Starts 5 New Positions in 3rd Quarter   [Nov-21-17 12:33PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Heska beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-02-17 08:25AM  Associated Press]
▶ Heska Reports Third Quarter Results   [08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Heska Announces 7-Year Agreement with PetVetCare Centers   [Nov-01-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Heska Corp. : October 30, 2017   [Oct-30-17 11:57AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Heska Corp. : October 9, 2017   [Oct-09-17 11:38AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Heska posts 2Q profit   [Jul-31-17 11:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ Heska Reports Second Quarter Results   [08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Heska Corp. : July 11, 2017   [Jul-11-17 02:38PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Heska Corp. : June 30, 2017   [Jun-30-17 03:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Heska Corp. : June 19, 2017   [Jun-19-17 03:29PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Scott Humphrey Joins Heska's Board of Directors   [Jun-13-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Heska Corp. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:HSKA) : May 4, 2017   [May-04-17 04:51PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Here's Why Heska Corporation Is Dropping Today   [May-02-17 12:33PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Heska posts 1Q profit   [08:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ Heska Reports First Quarter Results   [08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Medical Device Maker Bolts Higher On Earnings In Massive Volume   [Apr-26-17 11:10AM  Investor's Business Daily]
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