Intrinsic value of Hudson Global, Inc. - HSON

Previous Close

$1.50

  Intrinsic Value

$0.55

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-63%

Previous close

$1.50

 
Intrinsic value

$0.55

 
Up/down potential

-63%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HSON stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.70
  8.33
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.18
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.17
Revenue, $m
  73
  79
  85
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  146
  154
  164
  174
  184
  194
  205
  217
  229
  241
  255
  268
  283
  298
  314
  330
  347
  366
  385
  404
Variable operating expenses, $m
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  159
  169
  179
  189
  200
  211
  223
  236
  249
  262
  276
  291
  307
  323
  340
  358
  377
  396
  417
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  159
  169
  179
  189
  200
  211
  223
  236
  249
  262
  276
  291
  307
  323
  340
  358
  377
  396
  417
Operating income, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
EBITDA, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Earnings before tax, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.920
  2.926
  2.931
  2.875
  2.912
  2.865
  2.897
  2.881
  2.932
  2.915
  2.920
  2.906
  2.877
  2.900
  2.875
  2.896
  2.887
  2.893
  2.899
  2.869
  2.898
  2.882
  2.888
  2.893
  2.907
  2.895
  2.892
  2.905
  2.895
  2.886
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Total debt, $m
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
Total liabilities, $m
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
Total equity, $m
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  51
  53
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  115
  120
  126
  133
  140
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.100
  0.180
  0.260
  0.330
  0.390
  0.440
  0.490
  0.540
  0.580
  0.620
  0.650
  0.690
  0.720
  0.740
  0.770
  0.790
  0.820
  0.840
  0.860
  0.880
  0.890
  0.910
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  22
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  29
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  28
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  80.0
  63.9
  51.1
  40.8
  32.6
  26.0
  20.7
  16.5
  13.2
  10.5
  8.4
  6.7
  5.3
  4.2
  3.4
  2.7
  2.1
  1.7
  1.4
  1.1
  0.9
  0.7
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1

Hudson Global, Inc. (Hudson) is a provider of professional-level recruitment and related talent solutions across the world. The Company's segments include Hudson Americas, Hudson Asia Pacific and Hudson Europe. Its service offerings include Permanent Recruitment, Temporary Contracting, Recruitment Process Outsourcing (RPO) and Talent Management solutions. The Permanent Recruitment services leverage its consultants, supported by its specialists in the delivery of its methods to identify, select and engage the talent. In Temporary Contracting, Hudson provides a range of project management, interim management and professional contract staffing services. Hudson RPO services include complete recruitment outsourcing, project-based outsourcing, contingent workforce solutions and recruitment consulting. Its Talent Management Solutions' capability encompasses services, such as talent assessment, interview training, executive coaching, employee development and outplacement.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hudson Global, Inc. (HSON)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -5.3
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -5.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 19%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -7.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -5%
Return On Total Capital -15.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.7%
Return On Equity -17.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.2%
Asset Turnover 3.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40%
EBITDA Margin -1.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Operating Margin -1.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -1.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.5%
Net Profit Margin -2.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Effective Tax Rate -12.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Payout Ratio -33.3%

HSON stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HSON stock intrinsic value calculation we used $67 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hudson Global, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Hudson Global, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HSON stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HSON is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hudson Global, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hudson Global, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HSON stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 103%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HSON stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Hudson Global, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hudson Global, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HSON stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HSON are equal to 0.1%.

Life of production assets of 0.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hudson Global, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HSON is equal to 1.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $40.487 million for Hudson Global, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.828 million for Hudson Global, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hudson Global, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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