Intrinsic value of Heat Biologics, Inc. - HTBX

Previous Close

$1.23

  Intrinsic Value

$0.06

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

Previous close

$1.23

 
Intrinsic value

$0.06

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HTBX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  3
  5
  7
  11
  15
  21
  28
  37
  47
  60
  74
  90
  109
  130
  153
  178
  204
  233
  264
  297
  332
  369
  407
  447
  489
  533
  578
  626
  675
  726
Variable operating expenses, $m
  26
  40
  59
  86
  121
  166
  223
  293
  378
  477
  592
  724
  873
  1,038
  1,221
  1,420
  1,636
  1,868
  2,115
  2,378
  2,656
  2,949
  3,256
  3,577
  3,913
  4,263
  4,628
  5,007
  5,402
  5,812
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
Total operating expenses, $m
  36
  50
  70
  97
  132
  177
  235
  305
  390
  489
  605
  737
  886
  1,052
  1,235
  1,434
  1,650
  1,883
  2,130
  2,393
  2,672
  2,965
  3,272
  3,594
  3,930
  4,281
  4,646
  5,025
  5,421
  5,831
Operating income, $m
  -33
  -45
  -62
  -86
  -117
  -157
  -207
  -269
  -343
  -430
  -531
  -646
  -777
  -922
  -1,082
  -1,257
  -1,446
  -1,649
  -1,866
  -2,096
  -2,340
  -2,596
  -2,865
  -3,147
  -3,441
  -3,748
  -4,067
  -4,400
  -4,745
  -5,104
EBITDA, $m
  -32
  -45
  -62
  -86
  -116
  -156
  -206
  -267
  -341
  -427
  -528
  -643
  -772
  -917
  -1,076
  -1,249
  -1,437
  -1,639
  -1,855
  -2,084
  -2,326
  -2,581
  -2,849
  -3,129
  -3,421
  -3,726
  -4,044
  -4,374
  -4,718
  -5,075
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  16
  20
  25
  31
  37
  44
  52
  61
  70
  80
  91
  102
  114
  127
  140
  154
  169
  184
  200
  216
  233
Earnings before tax, $m
  -33
  -45
  -63
  -88
  -120
  -162
  -214
  -278
  -355
  -445
  -551
  -671
  -807
  -959
  -1,126
  -1,309
  -1,507
  -1,719
  -1,946
  -2,187
  -2,442
  -2,710
  -2,992
  -3,287
  -3,595
  -3,917
  -4,251
  -4,599
  -4,961
  -5,338
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -33
  -45
  -63
  -88
  -120
  -162
  -214
  -278
  -355
  -445
  -551
  -671
  -807
  -959
  -1,126
  -1,309
  -1,507
  -1,719
  -1,946
  -2,187
  -2,442
  -2,710
  -2,992
  -3,287
  -3,595
  -3,917
  -4,251
  -4,599
  -4,961
  -5,338

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  32
  50
  75
  108
  153
  210
  282
  370
  477
  602
  748
  914
  1,102
  1,311
  1,541
  1,793
  2,065
  2,358
  2,671
  3,003
  3,353
  3,723
  4,111
  4,517
  4,941
  5,383
  5,843
  6,322
  6,820
  7,338
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  32
  50
  75
  108
  153
  210
  282
  370
  477
  602
  748
  914
  1,102
  1,311
  1,541
  1,793
  2,065
  2,358
  2,671
  3,003
  3,353
  3,723
  4,111
  4,517
  4,941
  5,383
  5,843
  6,322
  6,820
  7,338
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.094
  0.100
  0.093
  0.102
  0.098
  0.100
  0.099
  0.100
  0.099
  0.100
  0.099
  0.098
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
Average production assets, $m
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  16
  21
  26
  32
  39
  47
  56
  66
  77
  89
  102
  115
  129
  144
  160
  177
  195
  213
  232
  252
  272
  294
  316
Working capital, $m
  -13
  -20
  -30
  -44
  -62
  -86
  -115
  -151
  -194
  -245
  -304
  -372
  -449
  -534
  -628
  -730
  -841
  -960
  -1,087
  -1,223
  -1,365
  -1,516
  -1,674
  -1,839
  -2,012
  -2,192
  -2,379
  -2,574
  -2,777
  -2,988
Total debt, $m
  8
  19
  35
  56
  84
  121
  166
  222
  290
  370
  462
  568
  687
  820
  966
  1,126
  1,299
  1,485
  1,683
  1,894
  2,117
  2,351
  2,598
  2,855
  3,125
  3,405
  3,698
  4,002
  4,318
  4,647
Total liabilities, $m
  21
  32
  47
  69
  97
  133
  179
  235
  303
  382
  475
  580
  700
  832
  979
  1,139
  1,312
  1,497
  1,696
  1,907
  2,129
  2,364
  2,610
  2,868
  3,137
  3,418
  3,710
  4,015
  4,331
  4,660
Total equity, $m
  12
  18
  27
  40
  56
  77
  103
  135
  174
  220
  273
  334
  402
  478
  563
  654
  754
  861
  975
  1,096
  1,224
  1,359
  1,500
  1,649
  1,803
  1,965
  2,133
  2,308
  2,489
  2,678
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  33
  50
  74
  109
  153
  210
  282
  370
  477
  602
  748
  914
  1,102
  1,310
  1,542
  1,793
  2,066
  2,358
  2,671
  3,003
  3,353
  3,723
  4,110
  4,517
  4,940
  5,383
  5,843
  6,323
  6,820
  7,338
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.650
  1.040
  1.270
  1.420
  1.510
  1.570
  1.620
  1.640
  1.670
  1.680
  1.690
  1.700
  1.710
  1.710
  1.720
  1.720
  1.720
  1.720
  1.730
  1.730
  1.730
  1.730
  1.730
  1.730
  1.730
  1.730
  1.730
  1.730
  1.730
  1.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -33
  -45
  -63
  -88
  -120
  -162
  -214
  -278
  -355
  -445
  -551
  -671
  -807
  -959
  -1,126
  -1,309
  -1,507
  -1,719
  -1,946
  -2,187
  -2,442
  -2,710
  -2,992
  -3,287
  -3,595
  -3,917
  -4,251
  -4,599
  -4,961
  -5,338
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
Funds from operations, $m
  -32
  -45
  -63
  -87
  -120
  -161
  -213
  -276
  -353
  -443
  -548
  -668
  -803
  -954
  -1,120
  -1,302
  -1,498
  -1,709
  -1,935
  -2,175
  -2,428
  -2,695
  -2,976
  -3,269
  -3,575
  -3,895
  -4,227
  -4,574
  -4,934
  -5,308
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -14
  -18
  -23
  -29
  -36
  -43
  -51
  -59
  -68
  -76
  -85
  -94
  -102
  -111
  -119
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -180
  -187
  -195
  -203
  -211
Cash from operations, $m
  -28
  -38
  -53
  -74
  -101
  -137
  -183
  -240
  -309
  -392
  -488
  -600
  -727
  -869
  -1,026
  -1,199
  -1,387
  -1,590
  -1,808
  -2,040
  -2,286
  -2,545
  -2,818
  -3,104
  -3,403
  -3,715
  -4,040
  -4,379
  -4,731
  -5,097
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
Free cash flow, $m
  -28
  -39
  -54
  -75
  -104
  -141
  -187
  -245
  -315
  -399
  -497
  -610
  -738
  -882
  -1,041
  -1,216
  -1,406
  -1,611
  -1,831
  -2,065
  -2,313
  -2,574
  -2,849
  -3,138
  -3,439
  -3,754
  -4,082
  -4,423
  -4,778
  -5,147
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  8
  11
  16
  21
  28
  36
  46
  56
  67
  80
  92
  106
  119
  133
  146
  160
  173
  186
  198
  211
  223
  235
  246
  258
  269
  281
  292
  304
  316
  329
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  37
  52
  72
  100
  136
  183
  240
  310
  393
  491
  604
  732
  876
  1,035
  1,210
  1,401
  1,606
  1,826
  2,060
  2,308
  2,570
  2,845
  3,134
  3,435
  3,750
  4,078
  4,419
  4,774
  5,143
  5,527
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  45
  63
  88
  121
  164
  219
  286
  366
  460
  571
  696
  838
  995
  1,168
  1,356
  1,561
  1,779
  2,012
  2,258
  2,519
  2,793
  3,080
  3,380
  3,693
  4,019
  4,359
  4,711
  5,078
  5,459
  5,856
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  17
  24
  34
  46
  61
  78
  98
  121
  145
  172
  199
  228
  257
  286
  315
  344
  373
  400
  428
  454
  480
  506
  531
  555
  580
  605
  630
  655
  681
  708
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -37
  -52
  -72
  -100
  -136
  -183
  -240
  -310
  -393
  -491
  -604
  -732
  -876
  -1,035
  -1,210
  -1,401
  -1,606
  -1,826
  -2,060
  -2,308
  -2,570
  -2,845
  -3,134
  -3,435
  -3,750
  -4,078
  -4,419
  -4,774
  -5,143
  -5,527
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -20
  -28
  -39
  -54
  -75
  -104
  -142
  -189
  -248
  -320
  -405
  -504
  -619
  -749
  -895
  -1,056
  -1,233
  -1,425
  -1,632
  -1,854
  -2,090
  -2,340
  -2,603
  -2,880
  -3,170
  -3,473
  -3,789
  -4,119
  -4,462
  -4,818
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -20
  -25
  -34
  -45
  -58
  -76
  -96
  -118
  -142
  -168
  -192
  -215
  -235
  -252
  -263
  -268
  -268
  -263
  -251
  -236
  -216
  -194
  -171
  -147
  -123
  -101
  -81
  -64
  -49
  -36
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  51.9
  28.6
  16.5
  9.8
  6.0
  3.7
  2.4
  1.5
  1.0
  0.7
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Heat Biologics, Inc. is a development-stage company focused on developing allogeneic, off-the-shelf cellular therapeutic vaccines to combat a range of cancers. The Company is an immuno-oncology company, which focuses on T cell-stimulating platform technologies, such as Immune Pan-Antigen Cytotoxic Therapy (ImPACT) and Combination Pan-Antigen Cytotoxic Therapy (ComPACT). Using its ImPACT platform technology, the Company has developed HS-410 (vesigenurtacel-L) as a product candidate to treat non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), and HS-110 (viagenpumatucel-L), which is intended for use in combination with an anti-PD-1 checkpoint inhibitor, as a potential treatment for patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Using its ComPACT platform technology, it has developed HS-120 as a potential treatment for NSCLC. It is conducting a Phase II trial of HS-410 in patients with NMIBC, and a Phase Ib trial of HS-110, in combination with nivolumab (Opdivo) to treat patients with NSCLC.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Heat Biologics, Inc. (HTBX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.5
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 3.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -2.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -118.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -105.9%
Return On Total Capital -130%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -116.2%
Return On Equity -200%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -173.5%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

HTBX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HTBX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Heat Biologics, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Heat Biologics, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HTBX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HTBX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Heat Biologics, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Heat Biologics, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HTBX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 800%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $10 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HTBX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Heat Biologics, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Heat Biologics, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HTBX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HTBX are equal to 43.5%.

Life of production assets of 10.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Heat Biologics, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HTBX is equal to -411.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $7.370751 million for Heat Biologics, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32.460 million for Heat Biologics, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Heat Biologics, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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