Intrinsic value of Heartland Express - HTLD

Previous Close

$19.84

  Intrinsic Value

$6.44

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-68%

Previous close

$19.84

 
Intrinsic value

$6.44

 
Up/down potential

-68%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HTLD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  619
  633
  650
  668
  688
  710
  735
  761
  789
  819
  852
  886
  923
  962
  1,004
  1,048
  1,094
  1,143
  1,195
  1,250
  1,308
  1,369
  1,434
  1,502
  1,573
  1,649
  1,728
  1,811
  1,899
  1,991
Variable operating expenses, $m
  542
  554
  568
  584
  601
  620
  640
  663
  687
  712
  725
  755
  786
  819
  855
  892
  932
  974
  1,018
  1,065
  1,114
  1,166
  1,221
  1,279
  1,340
  1,404
  1,471
  1,542
  1,617
  1,695
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  542
  554
  568
  584
  601
  620
  640
  663
  687
  712
  725
  755
  786
  819
  855
  892
  932
  974
  1,018
  1,065
  1,114
  1,166
  1,221
  1,279
  1,340
  1,404
  1,471
  1,542
  1,617
  1,695
Operating income, $m
  77
  79
  82
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  107
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
  269
  282
  296
EBITDA, $m
  149
  152
  156
  160
  165
  171
  176
  183
  189
  197
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  252
  263
  275
  287
  300
  314
  329
  344
  361
  378
  396
  415
  435
  456
  478
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
Earnings before tax, $m
  77
  79
  81
  83
  86
  89
  92
  96
  99
  103
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  161
  167
  175
  182
  190
  198
  207
  217
  226
  237
  248
  259
  271
Tax expense, $m
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
Net income, $m
  56
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  73
  75
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  804
  823
  844
  867
  894
  923
  954
  988
  1,025
  1,064
  1,106
  1,151
  1,199
  1,250
  1,303
  1,361
  1,421
  1,485
  1,553
  1,624
  1,699
  1,779
  1,862
  1,950
  2,043
  2,141
  2,244
  2,352
  2,466
  2,586
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  804
  823
  844
  867
  894
  923
  954
  988
  1,025
  1,064
  1,106
  1,151
  1,199
  1,250
  1,303
  1,361
  1,421
  1,485
  1,553
  1,624
  1,699
  1,779
  1,862
  1,950
  2,043
  2,141
  2,244
  2,352
  2,466
  2,586
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.770
  0.769
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.769
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.771
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.769
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
Average production assets, $m
  567
  580
  595
  612
  630
  651
  673
  697
  723
  750
  780
  812
  846
  881
  919
  960
  1,002
  1,047
  1,095
  1,145
  1,198
  1,254
  1,313
  1,376
  1,441
  1,510
  1,583
  1,659
  1,739
  1,824
Working capital, $m
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
Total debt, $m
  5
  10
  15
  22
  29
  37
  45
  55
  65
  75
  87
  99
  112
  126
  140
  156
  172
  190
  208
  228
  248
  270
  292
  316
  342
  368
  396
  426
  457
  489
Total liabilities, $m
  219
  224
  229
  236
  243
  251
  259
  269
  279
  289
  301
  313
  326
  340
  355
  370
  387
  404
  422
  442
  462
  484
  507
  530
  556
  582
  610
  640
  671
  703
Total equity, $m
  585
  599
  614
  632
  651
  672
  695
  719
  746
  775
  805
  838
  873
  910
  949
  990
  1,035
  1,081
  1,130
  1,182
  1,237
  1,295
  1,356
  1,420
  1,487
  1,559
  1,634
  1,712
  1,795
  1,883
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  804
  823
  843
  868
  894
  923
  954
  988
  1,025
  1,064
  1,106
  1,151
  1,199
  1,250
  1,304
  1,360
  1,422
  1,485
  1,552
  1,624
  1,699
  1,779
  1,863
  1,950
  2,043
  2,141
  2,244
  2,352
  2,466
  2,586
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  56
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  73
  75
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  72
  73
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  85
  87
  90
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
Funds from operations, $m
  128
  131
  134
  137
  141
  145
  150
  154
  160
  165
  167
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  264
  276
  289
  302
  316
  331
  347
  363
  380
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  128
  131
  134
  137
  141
  146
  150
  155
  160
  166
  168
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  214
  223
  233
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  333
  349
  365
  383
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -85
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -145
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -224
  -234
  -246
  -259
Free cash flow, $m
  62
  61
  61
  61
  62
  62
  63
  64
  65
  66
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  73
  75
  78
  81
  83
  87
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  33
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  33
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  66
  66
  67
  68
  69
  70
  71
  73
  75
  77
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  137
  144
  150
  157
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -10
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash available for distribution, $m
  56
  53
  51
  50
  50
  49
  49
  48
  48
  48
  44
  45
  45
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  57
  59
  60
  63
  65
  67
  69
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  53
  48
  45
  41
  38
  36
  33
  30
  28
  25
  21
  19
  17
  15
  14
  12
  10
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Heartland Express, Inc. is a holding company. The Company is a short-to-medium haul truckload carrier. The Company focuses primarily on short- to medium-haul, asset-based dry van truckload services in regional markets near its terminals. The Company's truckload services are primarily asset-based transportation services in the dry van truckload market, and it also offers truckload temperature-controlled transportation services and non-asset based brokerage services. All tractors are equipped with mobile communication systems. Its primary customers include retailers and manufacturers. It provides nationwide asset-based dry van truckload service for shippers from Washington to Florida and New England to California. The Company provides truckload services across the United States and parts of Canada. As of December 31, 2016, it had operated 20 terminal facilities throughout the contiguous United States in addition to its terminal and corporate headquarters in North Liberty, Iowa.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Heartland Express (HTLD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29.5
Price to Sales 2.7
Price to Book 3.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -16.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -60.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -8.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Total Capital 11.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Return On Equity 11.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.4%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 85%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 81%
EBITDA Margin 31.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.1%
Operating Margin 14%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15%
Pre-Tax Margin 14%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15%
Net Profit Margin 9.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Effective Tax Rate 34.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36%
Payout Ratio 12.5%

HTLD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HTLD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $607 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Heartland Express. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Heartland Express. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HTLD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HTLD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Heartland Express, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Heartland Express.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HTLD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HTLD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Heartland Express.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Heartland Express. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HTLD stock is equal to 0.1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HTLD are equal to 91.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Heartland Express operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HTLD is equal to -2.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $575 million for Heartland Express - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 83 million for Heartland Express is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Heartland Express at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Heartland Express: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-19-18 08:42AM  Associated Press]
▶ Milestone Trailer Leasing makes equipment acquisition in Iowa   [Jun-13-18 02:17PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Heartland Express, Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Jun-12-18 04:24PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Heartland Express: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-25-18 09:07AM  Associated Press]
▶ Trucking Acquisitions Put New Spotlight on Fleet Values   [Mar-20-18 04:20PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Heartland Express, Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-13-18 04:02PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Trucking Rates Come Down a Bit but Problems Persist for Shippers   [Feb-15-18 11:52PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Heartland Express misses Street 4Q forecasts   [Feb-12-18 08:51AM  Associated Press]
▶ Inside US Truckload Carriers Valuations after 3Q17 Earnings   [Nov-30-17 07:31AM  Market Realist]
▶ Analyst Views of US Truckload Carriers after 3Q17 Earnings   [Nov-29-17 10:31AM  Market Realist]
▶ Heartland Express, Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-27-17 07:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Behind US Truckload Carriers 3Q17 Earnings   [10:31AM  Market Realist]
▶ US Truckload Carriers at the Top in 3Q17 Operating Margins   [Nov-24-17 05:15PM  Market Realist]
▶ Heartland Express misses Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-27-17 10:04AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Heartland Express Inc (HTLD) A Sell At Its Current Price?   [Oct-18-17 10:11AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Heartland Express Earns Technical Rating Upgrade   [Sep-18-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Heartland Express, Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Sep-12-17 06:07PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ A Look at Truckload Carriers Capex in 2Q17   [Aug-29-17 10:37AM  Market Realist]
▶ Heartland Express misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-02-17 09:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ Heartland Express Acquires Interstate Distributor Co.   [Jul-06-17 08:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Heartland Express, Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Jun-12-17 06:08PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Heartland Express tops 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-21-17 09:26AM  Associated Press]
▶ Heartland Express, Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-14-17 10:03AM  GlobeNewswire]
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