Intrinsic value of Huntsman - HUN

Previous Close

$29.22

  Intrinsic Value

$87.76

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+200%

Previous close

$29.22

 
Intrinsic value

$87.76

 
Up/down potential

+200%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of HUN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.20
  10.58
  10.02
  9.52
  9.07
  8.66
  8.29
  7.97
  7.67
  7.40
  7.16
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.03
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
Revenue, $m
  9,294
  10,277
  11,307
  12,384
  13,507
  14,677
  15,894
  17,160
  18,476
  19,844
  21,265
  22,742
  24,277
  25,874
  27,534
  29,262
  31,062
  32,936
  34,889
  36,926
  39,051
  41,268
  43,583
  46,002
  48,530
  51,172
  53,936
  56,827
  59,853
  63,020
Variable operating expenses, $m
  7,349
  8,125
  8,937
  9,786
  10,672
  11,594
  12,555
  13,553
  14,591
  15,669
  16,771
  17,935
  19,146
  20,405
  21,715
  23,078
  24,497
  25,975
  27,516
  29,122
  30,797
  32,546
  34,372
  36,280
  38,273
  40,357
  42,537
  44,817
  47,203
  49,701
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  939
  960
  981
  1,003
  1,025
  1,047
  1,070
  1,094
  1,118
  1,142
  1,168
  1,193
  1,219
  1,246
  1,274
  1,302
  1,330
  1,360
  1,390
  1,420
  1,451
  1,483
  1,516
  1,549
  1,583
  1,618
  1,654
  1,690
  1,727
  1,765
Total operating expenses, $m
  8,288
  9,085
  9,918
  10,789
  11,697
  12,641
  13,625
  14,647
  15,709
  16,811
  17,939
  19,128
  20,365
  21,651
  22,989
  24,380
  25,827
  27,335
  28,906
  30,542
  32,248
  34,029
  35,888
  37,829
  39,856
  41,975
  44,191
  46,507
  48,930
  51,466
Operating income, $m
  1,005
  1,193
  1,389
  1,595
  1,810
  2,035
  2,269
  2,513
  2,767
  3,032
  3,327
  3,613
  3,911
  4,222
  4,545
  4,883
  5,234
  5,601
  5,984
  6,384
  6,802
  7,238
  7,695
  8,173
  8,673
  9,197
  9,745
  10,320
  10,922
  11,554
EBITDA, $m
  1,386
  1,611
  1,847
  2,095
  2,354
  2,624
  2,906
  3,199
  3,504
  3,821
  4,152
  4,496
  4,853
  5,226
  5,614
  6,018
  6,440
  6,879
  7,338
  7,817
  8,317
  8,840
  9,386
  9,958
  10,556
  11,182
  11,838
  12,525
  13,244
  13,999
Interest expense (income), $m
  205
  124
  170
  218
  269
  322
  377
  435
  495
  557
  622
  689
  759
  832
  908
  986
  1,068
  1,153
  1,242
  1,334
  1,430
  1,530
  1,635
  1,744
  1,858
  1,977
  2,102
  2,232
  2,368
  2,510
  2,659
Earnings before tax, $m
  881
  1,023
  1,171
  1,326
  1,488
  1,658
  1,834
  2,018
  2,210
  2,410
  2,637
  2,854
  3,079
  3,314
  3,559
  3,815
  4,081
  4,359
  4,650
  4,954
  5,271
  5,603
  5,951
  6,315
  6,696
  7,095
  7,513
  7,952
  8,412
  8,894
Tax expense, $m
  238
  276
  316
  358
  402
  448
  495
  545
  597
  651
  712
  771
  831
  895
  961
  1,030
  1,102
  1,177
  1,256
  1,338
  1,423
  1,513
  1,607
  1,705
  1,808
  1,916
  2,029
  2,147
  2,271
  2,401
Net income, $m
  643
  747
  855
  968
  1,086
  1,210
  1,339
  1,473
  1,613
  1,759
  1,925
  2,083
  2,248
  2,419
  2,598
  2,785
  2,979
  3,182
  3,395
  3,616
  3,848
  4,090
  4,344
  4,610
  4,888
  5,179
  5,485
  5,805
  6,141
  6,493

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  11,390
  12,595
  13,857
  15,176
  16,552
  17,986
  19,478
  21,030
  22,642
  24,318
  26,060
  27,870
  29,751
  31,708
  33,743
  35,861
  38,066
  40,363
  42,756
  45,252
  47,856
  50,574
  53,411
  56,375
  59,473
  62,711
  66,098
  69,641
  73,349
  77,231
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  11,390
  12,595
  13,857
  15,176
  16,552
  17,986
  19,478
  21,030
  22,642
  24,318
  26,060
  27,870
  29,751
  31,708
  33,743
  35,861
  38,066
  40,363
  42,756
  45,252
  47,856
  50,574
  53,411
  56,375
  59,473
  62,711
  66,098
  69,641
  73,349
  77,231
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
Average production assets, $m
  3,606
  3,988
  4,387
  4,805
  5,241
  5,695
  6,167
  6,658
  7,169
  7,699
  8,251
  8,824
  9,420
  10,039
  10,683
  11,354
  12,052
  12,779
  13,537
  14,327
  15,152
  16,012
  16,910
  17,849
  18,830
  19,855
  20,927
  22,049
  23,223
  24,452
Working capital, $m
  121
  134
  147
  161
  176
  191
  207
  223
  240
  258
  276
  296
  316
  336
  358
  380
  404
  428
  454
  480
  508
  536
  567
  598
  631
  665
  701
  739
  778
  819
Total debt, $m
  3,148
  4,045
  4,984
  5,965
  6,989
  8,056
  9,166
  10,320
  11,520
  12,767
  14,063
  15,409
  16,809
  18,265
  19,779
  21,354
  22,995
  24,704
  26,485
  28,342
  30,279
  32,301
  34,412
  36,617
  38,922
  41,331
  43,851
  46,487
  49,246
  52,134
Total liabilities, $m
  8,474
  9,371
  10,310
  11,291
  12,315
  13,382
  14,492
  15,646
  16,846
  18,093
  19,389
  20,735
  22,135
  23,591
  25,105
  26,680
  28,321
  30,030
  31,811
  33,668
  35,605
  37,627
  39,738
  41,943
  44,248
  46,657
  49,177
  51,813
  54,572
  57,460
Total equity, $m
  2,916
  3,224
  3,547
  3,885
  4,237
  4,604
  4,986
  5,384
  5,796
  6,225
  6,671
  7,135
  7,616
  8,117
  8,638
  9,180
  9,745
  10,333
  10,946
  11,585
  12,251
  12,947
  13,673
  14,432
  15,225
  16,054
  16,921
  17,828
  18,777
  19,771
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  11,390
  12,595
  13,857
  15,176
  16,552
  17,986
  19,478
  21,030
  22,642
  24,318
  26,060
  27,870
  29,751
  31,708
  33,743
  35,860
  38,066
  40,363
  42,757
  45,253
  47,856
  50,574
  53,411
  56,375
  59,473
  62,711
  66,098
  69,641
  73,349
  77,231
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.080
  1.250
  1.400
  1.540
  1.650
  1.750
  1.840
  1.920
  1.990
  2.050
  2.110
  2.160
  2.210
  2.250
  2.290
  2.330
  2.360
  2.390
  2.420
  2.450
  2.470
  2.490
  2.520
  2.540
  2.560
  2.570
  2.590
  2.610
  2.620
  2.640
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  643
  747
  855
  968
  1,086
  1,210
  1,339
  1,473
  1,613
  1,759
  1,925
  2,083
  2,248
  2,419
  2,598
  2,785
  2,979
  3,182
  3,395
  3,616
  3,848
  4,090
  4,344
  4,610
  4,888
  5,179
  5,485
  5,805
  6,141
  6,493
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  380
  418
  458
  500
  544
  589
  636
  685
  736
  790
  825
  882
  942
  1,004
  1,068
  1,135
  1,205
  1,278
  1,354
  1,433
  1,515
  1,601
  1,691
  1,785
  1,883
  1,985
  2,093
  2,205
  2,322
  2,445
Funds from operations, $m
  1,024
  1,165
  1,313
  1,468
  1,630
  1,799
  1,975
  2,159
  2,350
  2,549
  2,750
  2,966
  3,190
  3,423
  3,667
  3,920
  4,184
  4,460
  4,748
  5,049
  5,363
  5,692
  6,035
  6,395
  6,771
  7,165
  7,577
  8,010
  8,463
  8,938
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
Cash from operations, $m
  1,011
  1,152
  1,300
  1,454
  1,615
  1,784
  1,960
  2,142
  2,333
  2,531
  2,732
  2,946
  3,170
  3,403
  3,645
  3,898
  4,161
  4,436
  4,723
  5,023
  5,336
  5,663
  6,005
  6,363
  6,738
  7,130
  7,542
  7,972
  8,424
  8,897
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -325
  -361
  -399
  -439
  -480
  -524
  -569
  -617
  -666
  -717
  -770
  -825
  -882
  -942
  -1,004
  -1,068
  -1,135
  -1,205
  -1,278
  -1,354
  -1,433
  -1,515
  -1,601
  -1,691
  -1,785
  -1,883
  -1,985
  -2,093
  -2,205
  -2,322
New CAPEX, $m
  -360
  -382
  -400
  -418
  -436
  -454
  -472
  -491
  -511
  -531
  -551
  -573
  -596
  -619
  -644
  -671
  -698
  -727
  -758
  -790
  -824
  -860
  -898
  -938
  -981
  -1,025
  -1,072
  -1,122
  -1,174
  -1,229
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -685
  -743
  -799
  -857
  -916
  -978
  -1,041
  -1,108
  -1,177
  -1,248
  -1,321
  -1,398
  -1,478
  -1,561
  -1,648
  -1,739
  -1,833
  -1,932
  -2,036
  -2,144
  -2,257
  -2,375
  -2,499
  -2,629
  -2,766
  -2,908
  -3,057
  -3,215
  -3,379
  -3,551
Free cash flow, $m
  327
  410
  501
  598
  699
  806
  918
  1,034
  1,156
  1,283
  1,410
  1,548
  1,692
  1,841
  1,997
  2,159
  2,328
  2,504
  2,687
  2,879
  3,079
  3,287
  3,506
  3,734
  3,972
  4,222
  4,484
  4,758
  5,045
  5,346
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  850
  897
  939
  981
  1,024
  1,067
  1,110
  1,154
  1,200
  1,247
  1,296
  1,347
  1,400
  1,456
  1,514
  1,576
  1,641
  1,709
  1,781
  1,857
  1,937
  2,022
  2,111
  2,205
  2,305
  2,409
  2,520
  2,636
  2,759
  2,888
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  850
  897
  939
  981
  1,024
  1,067
  1,110
  1,154
  1,200
  1,247
  1,296
  1,347
  1,400
  1,456
  1,514
  1,576
  1,641
  1,709
  1,781
  1,857
  1,937
  2,022
  2,111
  2,205
  2,305
  2,409
  2,520
  2,636
  2,759
  2,888
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,177
  1,306
  1,440
  1,579
  1,723
  1,873
  2,028
  2,189
  2,356
  2,530
  2,706
  2,895
  3,092
  3,297
  3,511
  3,734
  3,968
  4,212
  4,468
  4,736
  5,016
  5,309
  5,617
  5,939
  6,277
  6,632
  7,004
  7,394
  7,804
  8,234
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -296
  -308
  -323
  -338
  -352
  -367
  -382
  -397
  -413
  -429
  -446
  -463
  -482
  -501
  -521
  -542
  -564
  -588
  -613
  -639
  -667
  -696
  -726
  -759
  -793
  -829
  -867
  -907
  -949
  -994
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  33
  37
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  91
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
  132
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  184
  194
  205
  216
  227
  239
Cash available for distribution, $m
  881
  998
  1,117
  1,241
  1,371
  1,506
  1,646
  1,792
  1,943
  2,101
  2,260
  2,432
  2,610
  2,796
  2,990
  3,192
  3,404
  3,624
  3,855
  4,097
  4,349
  4,613
  4,890
  5,180
  5,484
  5,803
  6,137
  6,487
  6,854
  7,240
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  845
  914
  972
  1,022
  1,063
  1,093
  1,112
  1,120
  1,116
  1,102
  1,073
  1,038
  992
  939
  878
  811
  741
  667
  594
  521
  450
  383
  321
  264
  213
  169
  132
  100
  75
  55
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Huntsman Corporation is a manufacturer of differentiated organic chemical products and of inorganic chemical products. The Company operates all of its businesses through its subsidiary, Huntsman International LLC (Huntsman International). The Company operates through five segments: Polyurethanes, Performance Products, Advanced Materials, Textile Effects, and Pigments and Additives. Its Polyurethanes, Performance Products, Advanced Materials and Textile Effects segments produce differentiated organic chemical products and its Pigments and Additives segment produces inorganic chemical products. The Company's products are used in a range of applications, including those in the adhesives, aerospace, automotive, construction products, personal care and hygiene, durable and non-durable consumer products, digital inks, electronics, medical, packaging, paints and coatings, power generation, refining, synthetic fiber, textile chemicals and dye industries.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Huntsman (HUN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.2
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 5.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -36.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 8
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 320.4%
Total Debt to Equity 324.2%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Total Capital 5.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Return On Equity 23.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 17.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
EBITDA Margin 11.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Operating Margin 6.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Net Profit Margin 3.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Effective Tax Rate 19.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Payout Ratio 36.8%

HUN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HUN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $8358 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Huntsman. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Huntsman. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HUN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HUN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Huntsman, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Huntsman.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HUN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 79.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $919 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HUN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Huntsman.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Huntsman. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HUN stock is equal to 0.4%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HUN are equal to 38.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Huntsman operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HUN is equal to 1.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2620 million for Huntsman - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 238 million for Huntsman is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Huntsman at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.0 billion.

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