Intrinsic value of Hurco - HURC

Previous Close

$40.90

  Intrinsic Value

$7.20

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-82%

Previous close

$40.90

 
Intrinsic value

$7.20

 
Up/down potential

-82%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HURC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.00
  19.40
  17.96
  16.66
  15.50
  14.45
  13.50
  12.65
  11.89
  11.20
  10.58
  10.02
  9.52
  9.07
  8.66
  8.29
  7.96
  7.67
  7.40
  7.16
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.03
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
Revenue, $m
  295
  352
  415
  484
  560
  640
  727
  819
  916
  1,019
  1,127
  1,239
  1,357
  1,480
  1,609
  1,742
  1,881
  2,025
  2,175
  2,331
  2,493
  2,661
  2,836
  3,018
  3,207
  3,404
  3,610
  3,824
  4,047
  4,280
Variable operating expenses, $m
  266
  317
  374
  436
  503
  576
  654
  736
  824
  916
  1,012
  1,113
  1,219
  1,329
  1,445
  1,564
  1,689
  1,819
  1,953
  2,093
  2,238
  2,389
  2,547
  2,710
  2,880
  3,057
  3,242
  3,434
  3,634
  3,843
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Total operating expenses, $m
  269
  320
  377
  439
  506
  579
  657
  740
  828
  920
  1,016
  1,117
  1,223
  1,333
  1,449
  1,568
  1,693
  1,823
  1,958
  2,098
  2,243
  2,394
  2,552
  2,715
  2,885
  3,062
  3,247
  3,440
  3,640
  3,849
Operating income, $m
  26
  32
  38
  45
  53
  61
  70
  79
  89
  99
  111
  123
  134
  147
  160
  173
  188
  202
  217
  233
  250
  267
  284
  303
  322
  342
  363
  385
  407
  431
EBITDA, $m
  30
  37
  44
  52
  60
  69
  79
  90
  101
  112
  124
  137
  150
  164
  179
  194
  209
  226
  243
  260
  279
  298
  317
  338
  359
  382
  405
  429
  454
  481
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  24
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
Earnings before tax, $m
  26
  31
  36
  42
  48
  55
  62
  69
  77
  86
  96
  105
  115
  125
  136
  147
  158
  170
  182
  195
  208
  222
  237
  252
  267
  284
  301
  318
  337
  356
Tax expense, $m
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
Net income, $m
  19
  22
  26
  30
  35
  40
  45
  51
  57
  63
  70
  77
  84
  91
  99
  107
  115
  124
  133
  142
  152
  162
  173
  184
  195
  207
  219
  232
  246
  260

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  340
  407
  480
  559
  646
  739
  839
  946
  1,058
  1,176
  1,301
  1,431
  1,567
  1,710
  1,858
  2,012
  2,172
  2,338
  2,512
  2,691
  2,878
  3,073
  3,275
  3,485
  3,704
  3,931
  4,168
  4,416
  4,673
  4,942
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  340
  407
  480
  559
  646
  739
  839
  946
  1,058
  1,176
  1,301
  1,431
  1,567
  1,710
  1,858
  2,012
  2,172
  2,338
  2,512
  2,691
  2,878
  3,073
  3,275
  3,485
  3,704
  3,931
  4,168
  4,416
  4,673
  4,942
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.868
  0.865
  0.865
  0.866
  0.867
  0.866
  0.867
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.865
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
Average production assets, $m
  20
  24
  29
  33
  39
  44
  50
  56
  63
  70
  78
  86
  94
  102
  111
  120
  130
  140
  150
  161
  172
  184
  196
  208
  221
  235
  249
  264
  279
  295
Working capital, $m
  133
  159
  187
  218
  252
  289
  328
  369
  413
  459
  508
  559
  612
  668
  726
  786
  848
  913
  981
  1,051
  1,124
  1,200
  1,279
  1,361
  1,446
  1,535
  1,628
  1,725
  1,825
  1,930
Total debt, $m
  18
  36
  57
  79
  103
  129
  157
  187
  218
  251
  286
  322
  360
  400
  441
  484
  529
  575
  624
  674
  726
  780
  837
  895
  956
  1,020
  1,086
  1,155
  1,227
  1,302
Total liabilities, $m
  95
  113
  134
  156
  180
  206
  234
  264
  295
  328
  363
  399
  437
  477
  518
  561
  606
  652
  701
  751
  803
  857
  914
  972
  1,033
  1,097
  1,163
  1,232
  1,304
  1,379
Total equity, $m
  245
  293
  346
  403
  466
  533
  605
  682
  763
  848
  938
  1,032
  1,130
  1,233
  1,339
  1,450
  1,566
  1,686
  1,811
  1,940
  2,075
  2,215
  2,361
  2,513
  2,670
  2,834
  3,005
  3,184
  3,370
  3,563
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  340
  406
  480
  559
  646
  739
  839
  946
  1,058
  1,176
  1,301
  1,431
  1,567
  1,710
  1,857
  2,011
  2,172
  2,338
  2,512
  2,691
  2,878
  3,072
  3,275
  3,485
  3,703
  3,931
  4,168
  4,416
  4,674
  4,942
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.070
  0.120
  0.160
  0.200
  0.220
  0.240
  0.260
  0.270
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721
  0.721

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  19
  22
  26
  30
  35
  40
  45
  51
  57
  63
  70
  77
  84
  91
  99
  107
  115
  124
  133
  142
  152
  162
  173
  184
  195
  207
  219
  232
  246
  260
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
Funds from operations, $m
  23
  28
  32
  37
  43
  48
  55
  61
  68
  76
  83
  91
  100
  109
  118
  127
  137
  148
  158
  170
  181
  193
  206
  219
  233
  247
  262
  277
  293
  310
Change in working capital, $m
  23
  26
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
Cash from operations, $m
  0
  2
  4
  6
  9
  12
  16
  20
  24
  29
  34
  40
  46
  53
  60
  67
  75
  83
  91
  99
  108
  117
  127
  137
  147
  158
  169
  181
  192
  205
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
Free cash flow, $m
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -2
  0
  2
  5
  8
  12
  15
  19
  24
  29
  34
  39
  45
  51
  57
  63
  70
  77
  84
  91
  99
  107
  115
  124
  132
  141
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  27
  27
  26
  25
  23
  20
  17
  14
  11
  8
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  39
  43
  46
  49
  52
  53
  55
  56
  56
  56
  55
  53
  52
  51
  49
  47
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  86
  90
  97
  105
  113
  122
  131
  140
  150
  160
  170
  181
  192
  204
  217
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -42
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -186
  -194
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -23
  -20
  -16
  -13
  -9
  -5
  -2
  2
  6
  10
  14
  18
  23
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  92.1
  85.6
  80.3
  75.9
  72.2
  69.2
  66.7
  64.7
  63.0
  61.7
  60.6
  59.8
  59.2
  58.8
  58.5
  58.3
  58.3
  58.3
  58.3
  58.3
  58.3
  58.3
  58.3
  58.3
  58.3
  58.3
  58.3
  58.3
  58.3
  58.3

Hurco Companies, Inc. is an industrial technology company. The Company designs, manufactures and sells computerized (Computer Numeric Control (CNC)) machine tools, consisting primarily of vertical machining centers (mills) and turning centers (lathes), to companies in the metal cutting industry. It operates in the industrial automation equipment segment. It provides software options, control upgrades, accessories and replacement parts for its products, as well as customer service and training support, and applications support. Its computerized machine tools are equipped with an integrated interactive computer control system that features its WinMax software. Its control systems are available in versions, including the Series 8200-B for tool room products and the Series 9000 offered on its vertical machining centers and bridge mills. Its Takumi machine tools models include drill and tap machines and three-axis vertical machining centers with linear guides.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hurco (HURC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.7
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -38.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -24.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -20%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 41
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Total Capital 7.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Return On Equity 7.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.1%
EBITDA Margin 10.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Operating Margin 8.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Net Profit Margin 5.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Effective Tax Rate 31.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.2%
Payout Ratio 15.4%

HURC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HURC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $243.667 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hurco. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Hurco. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HURC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HURC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hurco, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hurco.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HURC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $3 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HURC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.1% for Hurco.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hurco. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HURC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HURC are equal to 6.9%.

Life of production assets of 5.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hurco operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HURC is equal to 45.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $203.085 million for Hurco - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 6.717 million for Hurco is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hurco at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Hurco Announces Cash Dividend   [Nov-16-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 6 Poorly Performing High-Yield Stocks   [Oct-31-18 04:23PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Hurco Companies, Inc. Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Sep-12-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hurco Announces Cash Dividend   [Jun-15-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hurco Reports Second Quarter Results for Fiscal 2018   [Jun-08-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hurco Announces Cash Dividend   [Mar-16-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Best Undervalued Stock in March   [Mar-12-18 10:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Hurco Reports First Quarter Results for Fiscal 2018   [Mar-09-18 08:33AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hurco Companies, Inc. Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Nov-17-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Hurco Cos., Inc. : October 2, 2017   [Oct-02-17 10:53AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Hurco Reports Fiscal 2017 Third Quarter Results   [Sep-08-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hurco Companies, Inc. Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jun-09-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Hurco Cos., Inc. : June 8, 2017   [Jun-08-17 01:39PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Hurco Reports Fiscal 2017 Second Quarter Results   [Jun-02-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Hurco Cos., Inc. : January 24, 2017   [Jan-24-17 12:34PM  Capital Cube]
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▶ Is Inventure Foods Inc (SNAK) A Good Stock To Buy?   [03:28PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Hurco Companies, Inc. Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Nov-11-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] Metal-Cutting Machine Manufacturers Shearing Prices to Generate Sales   [Sep-22-16 12:38AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ The Top 5 Micro Cap Technology Stocks for 2016 (IGLD,NCIT)   [Jan-26-16 07:24AM  at Investopedia]
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▶ Hedge Funds Are Crazy About Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN)   [Nov-30  02:08AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Hurco Companies, Inc. (HURC)?   [Nov-21  03:17PM  at Insider Monkey]

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