Intrinsic value of Hurco - HURC

Previous Close

$40.95

  Intrinsic Value

$6.91

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-83%

Previous close

$40.95

 
Intrinsic value

$6.91

 
Up/down potential

-83%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HURC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.65
  17.30
  16.07
  14.96
  13.97
  13.07
  12.26
  11.54
  10.88
  10.29
  9.77
  9.29
  8.86
  8.47
  8.13
  7.81
  7.53
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.79
  5.72
  5.64
  5.58
Revenue, $m
  227
  266
  309
  355
  405
  458
  514
  573
  636
  701
  770
  841
  916
  993
  1,074
  1,158
  1,245
  1,336
  1,430
  1,528
  1,630
  1,735
  1,845
  1,960
  2,079
  2,204
  2,334
  2,469
  2,610
  2,757
  2,911
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  238
  276
  318
  362
  409
  459
  512
  568
  626
  688
  751
  818
  887
  959
  1,034
  1,112
  1,193
  1,277
  1,364
  1,455
  1,550
  1,648
  1,751
  1,857
  1,968
  2,084
  2,205
  2,331
  2,462
  2,600
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  208
  238
  276
  318
  362
  409
  459
  512
  568
  626
  688
  751
  818
  887
  959
  1,034
  1,112
  1,193
  1,277
  1,364
  1,455
  1,550
  1,648
  1,751
  1,857
  1,968
  2,084
  2,205
  2,331
  2,462
  2,600
Operating income, $m
  20
  28
  33
  38
  43
  49
  55
  61
  68
  75
  82
  90
  98
  106
  115
  124
  133
  143
  153
  163
  174
  185
  197
  209
  222
  236
  249
  264
  279
  295
  311
EBITDA, $m
  24
  33
  38
  44
  50
  56
  63
  70
  78
  86
  94
  103
  112
  122
  132
  142
  153
  164
  176
  188
  200
  213
  227
  241
  255
  271
  286
  303
  320
  338
  357
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
Earnings before tax, $m
  19
  28
  32
  37
  42
  47
  52
  58
  64
  71
  77
  84
  92
  99
  107
  115
  124
  132
  142
  151
  161
  171
  182
  193
  205
  217
  229
  242
  256
  270
  285
Tax expense, $m
  6
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
Net income, $m
  13
  21
  24
  27
  30
  34
  38
  42
  47
  52
  56
  62
  67
  72
  78
  84
  90
  97
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  197
  208

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  41
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  252
  247
  287
  330
  376
  426
  478
  533
  591
  652
  715
  782
  851
  923
  998
  1,076
  1,157
  1,241
  1,329
  1,420
  1,514
  1,613
  1,715
  1,822
  1,933
  2,048
  2,169
  2,294
  2,425
  2,562
  2,705
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  211
  247
  287
  330
  376
  426
  478
  533
  591
  652
  715
  782
  851
  923
  998
  1,076
  1,157
  1,241
  1,329
  1,420
  1,514
  1,613
  1,715
  1,822
  1,933
  2,048
  2,169
  2,294
  2,425
  2,562
  2,705
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.076
  1.077
  1.077
  1.076
  1.077
  1.075
  1.075
  1.075
  1.076
  1.075
  1.077
  1.075
  1.076
  1.076
  1.076
  1.076
  1.076
  1.077
  1.076
  1.076
  1.077
  1.076
  1.076
  1.076
  1.076
  1.076
  1.076
  1.076
  1.076
  1.076
  1.076
Average production assets, $m
  19
  22
  25
  29
  33
  37
  42
  46
  51
  57
  62
  68
  74
  80
  87
  94
  101
  108
  116
  124
  132
  141
  149
  159
  168
  179
  189
  200
  211
  223
  236
Working capital, $m
  160
  133
  155
  178
  202
  229
  257
  287
  318
  351
  385
  421
  458
  497
  537
  579
  623
  668
  715
  764
  815
  868
  923
  980
  1,040
  1,102
  1,167
  1,234
  1,305
  1,379
  1,455
Total debt, $m
  1
  11
  24
  37
  52
  67
  84
  101
  119
  138
  158
  179
  200
  223
  246
  271
  296
  323
  350
  378
  408
  439
  471
  504
  539
  575
  613
  652
  693
  736
  781
Total liabilities, $m
  66
  77
  90
  103
  118
  133
  150
  167
  185
  204
  224
  245
  266
  289
  312
  337
  362
  389
  416
  444
  474
  505
  537
  570
  605
  641
  679
  718
  759
  802
  847
Total equity, $m
  185
  170
  197
  227
  259
  292
  328
  366
  406
  448
  491
  537
  585
  634
  686
  739
  795
  853
  913
  975
  1,040
  1,108
  1,178
  1,251
  1,328
  1,407
  1,490
  1,576
  1,666
  1,760
  1,859
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  251
  247
  287
  330
  377
  425
  478
  533
  591
  652
  715
  782
  851
  923
  998
  1,076
  1,157
  1,242
  1,329
  1,419
  1,514
  1,613
  1,715
  1,821
  1,933
  2,048
  2,169
  2,294
  2,425
  2,562
  2,706
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.005
  0.070
  0.120
  0.160
  0.200
  0.230
  0.250
  0.280
  0.290
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  13
  21
  24
  27
  30
  34
  38
  42
  47
  52
  56
  62
  67
  72
  78
  84
  90
  97
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  197
  208
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
Funds from operations, $m
  -34
  25
  29
  33
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  69
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  110
  118
  126
  135
  143
  153
  162
  172
  182
  193
  204
  216
  228
  241
  255
Change in working capital, $m
  -27
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
Cash from operations, $m
  -7
  5
  7
  10
  12
  15
  19
  22
  26
  30
  35
  39
  44
  49
  55
  60
  66
  73
  79
  86
  92
  100
  107
  115
  123
  131
  140
  149
  158
  168
  178
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -7
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
Free cash flow, $m
  -11
  -1
  0
  1
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  29
  32
  37
  41
  45
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  107
  114
  121
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  4
  4
  3
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  15
  16
  16
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -12
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  23
  26
  30
  34
  38
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  72
  77
  83
  90
  96
  103
  109
  117
  124
  132
  140
  148
  157
  166
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -10
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  40
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  30
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -13
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -1
  2
  4
  7
  11
  14
  17
  21
  25
  28
  32
  36
  40
  45
  49
  54
  58
  63
  68
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  28
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -2
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.0
  96.6
  95.7
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4
  95.4

Hurco Companies, Inc. is an industrial technology company. The Company designs, manufactures and sells computerized (Computer Numeric Control (CNC)) machine tools, consisting primarily of vertical machining centers (mills) and turning centers (lathes), to companies in the metal cutting industry. It operates in the industrial automation equipment segment. It provides software options, control upgrades, accessories and replacement parts for its products, as well as customer service and training support, and applications support. Its computerized machine tools are equipped with an integrated interactive computer control system that features its WinMax software. Its control systems are available in versions, including the Series 8200-B for tool room products and the Series 9000 offered on its vertical machining centers and bridge mills. Its Takumi machine tools models include drill and tap machines and three-axis vertical machining centers with linear guides.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hurco (HURC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.7
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -38.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -24.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -20%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 41
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Total Capital 7.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Return On Equity 7.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.1%
EBITDA Margin 10.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Operating Margin 8.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Net Profit Margin 5.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Effective Tax Rate 31.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.2%
Payout Ratio 15.4%

HURC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HURC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $227 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hurco. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Hurco. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HURC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HURC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hurco, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hurco.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HURC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HURC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Hurco.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hurco. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HURC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HURC are equal to 8.1%.

Life of production assets of 5.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hurco operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HURC is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $185 million for Hurco - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 6.624 million for Hurco is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hurco at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Hurco Companies, Inc. Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Nov-17-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Hurco Cos., Inc. : October 2, 2017   [Oct-02-17 10:53AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Hurco Reports Fiscal 2017 Third Quarter Results   [Sep-08-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hurco Companies, Inc. Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jun-09-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Hurco Cos., Inc. : June 8, 2017   [Jun-08-17 01:39PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Hurco Reports Fiscal 2017 Second Quarter Results   [Jun-02-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Hurco Cos., Inc. : January 24, 2017   [Jan-24-17 12:34PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Is Inventure Foods Inc (SNAK) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-20-16 03:28PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Inventure Foods Inc (SNAK) A Good Stock To Buy?   [03:28PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Hurco Companies, Inc. Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Nov-11-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] Metal-Cutting Machine Manufacturers Shearing Prices to Generate Sales   [Sep-22-16 12:38AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ The Top 5 Micro Cap Technology Stocks for 2016 (IGLD,NCIT)   [Jan-26-16 07:24AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Is Maxwell Technologies Inc. (MXWL) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-07  01:36PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Crazy About Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN)   [Nov-30  02:08AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Hurco Companies, Inc. (HURC)?   [Nov-21  03:17PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Hurco Reports First Quarter Results   [08:11AM  at noodls]
▶ Hurco Reports First Quarter Results   [08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of HURC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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